Details

Published on Tuesday, 05 April 2016 23:15

Scheldeprijs 2016

Wednesday 6th April, 208kms

The sprinters get a chance to shine on Wednesday in the Scheldeprijs, the traditional sprinters classic of the northern cobbled races. This is the 104th running of the Scheldeprijs and it's the oldest of all the Flanders races. Marcel Kittel has dominated this race in recent years, winning it three times in a row from 2012-2105.

He missed out on the chance last year to make it a record four wins as he was recovering from the bug that had hit him last season. He's back this year though to give it another go and he is looking like he is coming back to his best form finally. Mark Cavendish also won this race three times, in 2017, 2008 and again in 2011, interrupted by wins for Pettachi and Farrar. He too skipped last year's edition but is back to take on Kittel for the record.

Compared to last year, when Kittel, Cavendish, Greipel and several others missed the race, this year's edition is packed with most of the best sprinters in the world. Joining the above three this year to fight for victory are last year's winner Alexander Kristoff, Elia Viviani, who beat Kittel in De Panne, Andrea Guardini, Dylan Groenewegen, Sam Bennett and man-of-the-moment Peter Sagan. Last year's race was unfortunately probably best remembered for the massive crash in the closing kilometres which took out Sam Bennett amongst others, but Alexander Kristoff won the sprint cosily from the impressive Edward Thuens, then of Topsport, and Yauheni Hutarovich of Bretagne Seche.

The Route

It's a straightforward and pretty traditional route for most of the race, setting out from Antwerp and going in a clock-wise route north-east of the city, before returning back to a finishing circuit of 17.8kms around Schoten, which they do three times. It almost always ends in a sprint finish, but one of the most prestigious sprint finishes in the pro calendar, hence it is given an unofficial nickname of 'the sprinters world championships'.

What is good to see though is that the organisers have decided to take action following last year's accidents, which saw the large field hurtling towards the finish, with more or less the entire start-list still involved. It was inevitable with all the street furniture and with too many riders that something was going to happen and it inevitably did. This year, they have decided to reduce the number of riders from 200, from 25 teams to 176 from 22 teams. It means unfortunately that some of the smaller Pro-Continental teams didn't get invited, but it's for the best for the safety of the riders.

They have also changed the finish of the race so that it should be safer, the finishing straight on Churchill Avenue has been shortened to 800m and the approach to it has been modified to hopefully mean less crashes than last year. Maybe other races, like De Panne last week when everyone knew there would be a crash on the final bend of the stage 3a and sure enough it happened, with maybe only 25 riders getting through at the front. With a lot of these riders pencilled in to do Paris-Roubaix on Sunday too, most will be just hoping to get home unscathed with some good training in the legs. In fact Sagan's DS has said exactly that, that he is going to look after himself..

Contenders and Favourites

Marcel Kittel is the hot favourite for the race and rightly so - three times a winner of the race, he would probably be the four-time winner if he hadn't skipped it last year. On a good day, he is the best sprinter in the world at the moment, and he seems to be coming right at just the right time after a good win in the sprint in stage 3a of De Panne, making up for the day before when Viviani mugged him as he started his sprint way too far out. He has already won two stages in Dubai and in the Algarve, and after winning in De Panne he said that Scheldeprijs was his next big target.

I think he will be very hard to beat in the sprint tomorrow if EQS do their job properly, Boonen, Trentin, Sabatini and Van Keirsbulck will do the grunt work, Richez will possibly be last lead out man to put him in the right position with 200m or less to go.. Any further out and he could be in trouble, faster, nippier guys could come around him at the death. He was 7/4 when he opened with PP and I took that, he is just 5/4 with Bet365, but still 6/4 with PP.

Andre Greipel put in a massive ride on Sunday in Flanders, taking off in a break that caught the original breakaway and keeping the peloton at bay for a long time. Not only that, but despite working hard all day up the road, he still finished in 28th place, just 2 minutes behind Sagan. After two wins in his first three races in Majorca, he crashed in the Algarve and damaged a rib, which set him back quite a bit and he didn't finish Paris-Nice or GW, but had managed a 3rd place finish in PN on stage 3, ahead of Kristoff and Matthews, before pulling out. He was well off the pace in stage 2 in De Panne though in 13th, but got held up by the crash on stage 3a and never got in a blow. It doesn't look like a race he loves too much though, despite it's title of the 'unofficial sprinters world championships' as he has only entered it three times and has finished 14th, 22nd an 12th, the last time he entered it was in 2012. 

Mark Cavendish looks a big price at 8/1 for a three-time winner of the race, but those wins were in his heyday, when he had excellent leadout trains and younger, better sprinting legs. He has only one win to his name this year though, in the first stage in Qatar on the 8th of February, and we haven't seen him in over two weeks since he finished 110th in MSR. You can never write Cav off completely as he is such top quality, but I think that he will struggle to break podium tomorrow. 

Elia Viviani on the other hand is sprinting really well after coming off the World Track Championships in good form. He nipped out from behind Kittel expertly in stage 2 of De Panne, but that was only his first win of the season, and I think it was more that Kittel and EQS blew it by going too early rather than Viviani being far superior. Still, he has a chance of a podium spot at the least here I think and is bound to fight tooth and nail for Kittel's wheel in the last kilometre when he has been dropped off by his Sky team-mates. 

Alexander Kristoff was one I was happy to take on with Sagan in a matchbet at the weekend in Flanders, and although he did well to sprint to 4th place, leading the chasers home, he had no answer for the leaders when they went this year. It's hard to know how he'll go this year, he was 7/1 for it last year as it wasn't certain if he'd be going for it with Paris-Roubaix on the Sunday, but go for it he did and won it. He doesn't look to be in such good condition this year and in a flat out sprint I think there could be at least 1 or 2 better than him. 

Peter Sagan is in the race, but Tinkoff have openly admitted that he is going to be looking after himself tomorrow and that the team is riding for their young sprinter Erik Baska. Bet365 seem to have cottoned on to this and he is only 20/1, PP maybe haven't he is 50/1 there if you fancy him. The young Slovak is a good sprinter, having recently won the Handzame Classic ahead of Groenewegen and Gianni Merrsman, but I can't see him beating Kittel, Greipel or Viviani here. 

Dylan Groenewegen has been riding very well this season, with him finishing in the top 6 in six of his last 9 starts, including a win in stage 1 of the 3 days of west Flanders, 4th in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne and 2nd in the Hanzame Classic. He is fired up for this race and has a strong Lotto team with him to drag him in to a good position. I think he could be a real dark horse here and the 20/1 with PP is worth a nibble, he's 18/1 with Bet365.

Sam Bennett went through a dip in form which was unexpected as he had had such a good winter and had been producing impressive power numbers. He apparently had over-trained and he was not happy with his sprint at all. It looks like he has sorted things out somewhat though as he sprinted to victory in stage 1 of the Criterium International in Corsica, but to be honest it was a pretty weak field that day. He should be top 10 at worst, as long as he doesn't get caught up in crashes like last year and on a good day he could give the podium a good shot. He's only 20/1 with 365 but 40/1 with PP and that was worth a small bet too. 

Edward Theuns is aiming for another podium this year and is fully fired up to put in a big ride, with the Trek team behind him. Fabian Cancellara is here but will no doubt be doing like Sagan and taking it easy, but he has Boy Van Poppel here to lead him out and he has been excellent in leading him out lately, helping him to a 2nd place in stage 4 of Paris-Nice ahead of Greipel and Matthews. He's 50/1 if you fancy him to land another podium this year. Andrea Guardini, Nik Arndt, Wouter Wippert and Adrien Petit could also go well too.

I think though that Marcel Kittel will put his name in the record books tomorrow and land his fourth win in the race. I think it could even be well surpassed by the time he retires, there could be another three or four wins in this for him. The changes to the race have probably helped him, making it a little safer, and a shorter finishing straight will help Etixx make sure they deliver him close to the line. Viviani and Greipel will run him close, but at bigger odds I'm having a small go on Groenewegen and Bennett.

Recommendations:

3pts win on Marcel Kittel at 7/4 with PP, take the 6/4 now. 

0.3pts each-way on Dylan Groenewegen at 20/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 40/1 with PP

Matchbets

Greipel to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 6/5