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Published on Tuesday, 07 April 2015 22:55

Scheldeprijs 2015

Wednesday 8th April, 215.3kms

The 2015 Scheldeprijs, like the Tour of Flanders just a few days before is missing two of it's biggest stars this year in Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish. Coincidentally, like Boonen and Cancellara who have both won Flanders three times, Kittel and Cavendish are also three times winners of the Scheldeprijs. Marcel Kittel has dominated this race for the past three years, but misses out this year as he is still recovering from the bug that has affected him this season.  

Mark Cavendish won in 2017, 2008 and again in 2011, interrupted by wins for Pettachi and Farrar. He too misses out as he is taking a break after a hectic start to the season.

Unfortunately it's not just those two stars who are missing the race, André Greipel, who would have been a big favourite for the race in their absence, has also pulled out after an exhausting Ronde Van Vlaanderen. But the good news for the organisers is that the Ronde hero Alexander Kristoff is starting and it will be interesting to see if he can continue his, and Katusha's dominance of Belgian races of late. With Luca Paolini winning Gent-Wevelgem and Kristoff winning three stage of the 3DDP and the RVV they have won 4 out of the last 5 races run in Belgium!

Niki Terpstra, Peter Sagan and Geraint Thomas are also scheduled to start but it's likely they are just going to be on a training ride ahead of Sunday's Paris-Roubaix and unlikely to be involved in the finish, unless someone like Sagan decides to try to make a point and try to make amends for Flanders. But there is still some quality sprinting talent there that should contest the almost inevitable sprint finish - former winner Tyler Farrar, Elia Viviani, Andrea Guardini, Danny Van Poppel, Sam Bennett, Moreno Hofland, Yauheni Hautarovich and Alessandro Pettachi at the ripe old age of 41! 

We went to the start of the Scheldeprijs four years ago when in Antwerp and it was a very pleasant race to go and enjoy as a fan. The team buses and cars were all very accessible and the riders in a far more relaxed and friendly mood than say for something like the Ronde. When there we met a very young, but very impressive looking chap by the name of Marcel Kittel, who was only 22 at the time, he was kind enough to stop for a photo and an autograph for my boy.. He went on to win that day in the pouring rain, beating Tyler Farrar in the sprint (who then crashed after the finish line).

The Route

I'm not going to bother showing a map for this one, the maps that the Flanders Classics organisers supply are so bad they are next to useless. Also, it's almost sufficient to say it's a flat course with a few relatively easy cobbled sections that goes out on a 150km loop north-east of Antwerp and then comes back to Schoten to do 3 laps of a 16km circuit. It almost always ends in a sprint, finish, but one of the most prestigious sprint finishes in the pro calendar, hence it is given an unofficial nickname of 'the sprinters world championships'. 

Contenders and Favourites

It's hard to look past Alexander Kristoff given the condition he is in and the confidence that must be coarsing through his veins at the moment. BUT - he had a hard race Sunday, forcing the pace from over 30kms out and having to do most of the work in the latter stages. Add in the fact that he surely has a great chance in Paris-Roubaix next Sunday and you have to think that his appearance here may be something more to do with sponsors duties and appearance fees, rather than a genuine desire to want to come and win the race.

Add in the fact that his head is probably still spinning from the whirl of interviews, meetings, congratulations and celebrations, I'm going to pass on him even at the big looking price of 7/1 with PP - he is just 2/1 with Bet365 which is a massive difference of opinion between the top two cycling bookies. Having said that though, I wouldn't be surprised to see him just sit in, get towed along for the ride and then make one effort at the finish.. he is a competitor and a winner after all and if it has been an easy-ish day up until then he might give it a go. Or he could work for his team-mates for a while to let them have a go.. he will probably want to stay out of trouble though as there are often lots of crashes in this race. 

Instead, there are some quality sprinters coming here with big ambitions to win this race. Elia Viviani looks a strong candidate for the win given the absence of the world's top sprinters, but 4/1 isn't a great price for a guy that can go missing when a lot is expected of him.. You'd imagine that Rowe, Stannard, Thomas and Wiggins might do some work early on to control the break, but I can't imagine they'll be too heavily involved at the finish. Instead, he'll be looking to Bernie Eisel, Puccio and Fenn to lead him out at the finish and they'd be one of the strongest lead-outs there. He has DNF'ed more often than he has finished lately (Omloop, Strade B, E3, Gent Wevelgem, the Ronde) but this is much more his style. The last race that was similar to this he finished 2nd to Kristoff in a stage of 3DDP and before that 3rd in KBK behind Cav and Kristoff. By that form line he should be capable of stepping up to a win here. 

Andrea Guardini started the season exceptionally well with some top results in the middle-east races and two stage wins in Langkawi. He followed that up with a good 4th place in the sprint in the 3rd stage of the 3DDP behind Kristoff, Greipel and Modolo and must come here with high hopes of a good finish on a flat course and a fast, flat sprint finish. 

Sam Bennett already has shown he can beat Guardini and some of the best sprinters in the world and this sort of course should be perfect for him. He can handle the cobbles really well and has one of the fastest sprints in this field. He comes here with a good squad to lead him out too, with in-form man Shane Archbold his key lead-out man here to help him out, along with Bauhaus, Dempster and Schillinger. If he can be delivered to the front with 200m to go, on or near Guardini or Kristoff he could well find the finishing kick to take this.  15/1 isn't a great price but he has a good chance of being in the top 5 I think.

Tyler Farrar is a former winner of the race and has also finished 2nd in 2014 and 2012 and 6th in 2013. I have backed him far too many times with little return so I am reluctant to back him again, but he could well be in the top 5 again tomorrow though. 18/1 is a bit tight though, he's more likely to finish 5th or 6th than in the first 3. 

Peter Sagan looks a huge price at 20/1, but again, like Kristoff, it's unlikely he'll be pushing himself tomorrow just as he's starting to find some form ahead of PR. Boy Van Poppel ranges from 12/1 to 20/1 and I would not take the former price, but the latter is a little bit more tempting. Nikias Arndt comes here as the replacement sprinter for Marcel Kittel in the Giant-Alpecin team and he has most of the lead-out team normally in service of the big man. Timmer, De Backer, Curvers and Sinkeldam are a strong team and in a nice, long, wide finish like this they have plenty of time to get themselves organised. Whether Arndt can finish it off is another question, but he is capable of a good result. 

There are lots of second division sprinters after that like Theo Bos, Yauheni Hutarovich, Matteo Trentin, Boris Valée, Alexander Porsev, Mark Renshaw, Van Asbroeck and Van Stayen, but it's hard to pick which of that lot could break in to the top 3 to give a return.

It will almost certainly come down to a sprint though, and we should see Viviani, Guardini, Bennett and Farrar at the front of affairs, but maybe not Sagan and Kristoff.. Viviani should have the pace and the power and the guile to win this, but at 4/1 I'm not all that keen in backing him.. Bora Argon need to take advantage of opportunities like this tomorrow and with a strong lead-out and one of the fastest men in the race, I think they could deliver Bennett with a real chance at a top 3 finish here and possibly he can take the win too. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Sam Bennett at 15/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Tyler Farrar to beat Nikias Arndt - 2pts at evens with Bet365

Bennett to beat Hutarovich and Edward Theuns to beat Dylan Groenewegen - 1pt on the double at 5/4 with Bet365