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Published on Saturday, 12 October 2013 23:18

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Authon du Perche to Tours, 235Km 

The 107th running of the Paris-Tours race departs from Authon du Perche, no fewer than 150km from Paris itself. it's like Ryanair have picked the departure town and still named it Paris-Tours, as it is as bad as saying flying in to Beauvais is a flight to Paris, and that's only 88km from Paris! 

Be that as it may, the finish in Tours is well known to the riders and experience counts for a lot on this race - Marcato, above won from De Vreese last year, having been beaten in a two up sprint with Van Avermaet in 2011. The Avenue de Grammont in Tours has seen many a big sprint down the years, but in recent runnings it has been mostly breakaways that have won the day. In fact in the last 16 runnings of the race there have only been 4 sprint finishes. The race usually sees an early breakaway and they can be quite sizeable with lots of riders wanting to be in those early breaks. The winners have come from the remains of those breaks that can stay away or like last year, a late counter attack on the hills outside Tours with 10km to go. 

The races have in general been extremely fast - last year Marcato's winning speed was 48.63Km/h, almost as fast as the record set by Andre Tchmil in 1997 of 48.83Km/h. Tomorrow they will face a slight headwind of 5km/h as they head south-west to Tours, but it shouldn't cause too many problems. 

As you can see from the profile below in the tabs, the course looks almost completely flat. There are though a series of three little bumps inside the last 35 kms which can decide the outcome of this race - the Côte du Crochu with 30km to go, the Côte de Beau Soleil with 10km to go and the Côte de l'Épan with 7km to go. The roads are small, narrow, slippy, especially if a little wet, but thankfully the weather is forecast to be sunny and mild. There were plenty of crashes on these roads last year though, with the narrow roads and slippy leaves causing problems. 

The Côte du Crochu is only 300m long on Strava at an average of 4.9%, the Côte de Beau Soleil is 700m long at an average of 4.8% but hits sections of 10-13% and the Côte de l'Épan is the shortest but steepest of the three, averaging 9.3% over just 300m, but hits sections of around 14-16%. 

Once they get over the l'Épan though it is a very fast run to the finish and a gap of just 20" can be held by leaders. The finishing straight is long and wide and perfect for a bunch sprint if all together.

The Contenders and Favourites:

Now comes the hard part - trying to decide which way the race is going to go. The bookies have priced it up like it is going to end in a bunch sprint with John Degenkolb the very short 2/1 favourite, followed by Demare (5/1), Van Avermaet (9/1), Farrar (16/1) and Ciolek (22/1).

If it does end in a sprint, then you have to fancy Degenkolb, even at those short odds. He is clearly in great form at the moment, I picked him to win Paris-Bourges during the week and he did easily, beating Demare, Dumoulin and Haussler in the sprint. Not only that but he has another string to his bow in that he could get in one of those late breakaways - he finished 4th last year after a valiant solo effort to bridge across to the three leaders, falling short by about 30m with 400m to go when they started their sprints. 

I think though that it will follow the pattern of recent years and will not come down to a bunch sprint, rather be won by a small breakaway. John Degenkolb may still be involved and I would like to back him but I think I will hold off until the last 10km or so to see how it is panning out and maybe try to back him in-play. He is 3/1 on Betfair at the moment, if I can get anything close to that if it looks like coming back together inside the last 10km I will take it. 

Greg Van Avermaet clearly loves this race too, having won it in 2011 and was 6th last year, second in the little group chasing the leaders. He is also going very well this year and has a number of good results under his belt including winning the overall and two stages in the Tour de Wallonie, a stage in the Tour of Utah, 3rd in Ghent-Wevelgem and 4th in Paris Roubaix. He warmed up for this race with a fine 3rd in Binche-Chimay-Binche this week behind Van Rensburg and Leukemans. He should be involved in the late attacks for sure I think and if he has the right opposition in a small break at the finish I think he can take it again for the second time in 3 years.

Clearly knowledge of the finishing circuit helps, a fact confirmed by Marcato after winning last year's race - "From last year, I mostly learnt how to ride in the kilometers preceding the sprint. One year ago, I had in mind that it was still good to be second. This time around, it was all or nothing. With 3km to go, I became confident that I would win". Marcato though is not in great form this year and his best results have been a 3rd in stage 5 of the Tour de Wallonie behind Van Avermaet who won and some 5th and 6th places, so I will not be looking to back him this year.

Ciolek is one who can get involved in late breakaways too rather than waiting for a sprint, as we saw in Milan-San-Remo and that late attack that caught Sam Bennett in the Tour of Britain. At 22/1 best price though I don't think it is attractive enough for tomorrow. Farrar you can forget about, he will not get in late attacks, and although he finally got off the mark and won a race a few weeks ago he will not win this sprint I believe.

Other to consider for the late breaks - Marcato's team-mate Bjorn Leukemans is another that may use the experience to his advantage, having finished 7th here last year, beside Van Avermaet. 3rd in Brabantse Pjil and 7th in Amstel Gold this year, this classics specialist should be at the front as they hit the last 30km and may even be involved in an all-day breakaway. It is probably his last big race for Vacansoleil so should be looking to go out with a bang I think. He is in good form too having taken second in Binche-Chimay-Binche this week ahead of Van Avermaet. At 66/1 with Betway he is worth a small interest maybe each way.

Niki Terpstra too is one to watch - 3rd last year, and 3rd in Paris Roubaix this year, this 6ft 1in powerhouse likes these punchy type races and should be at the forefront on the small roads in to Tour also. At 50/1 with Paddy Power he is another long shot that may go well. Van Resburg I picked as one who could win Binche-Chimay-Binche this week and he duly did. A very strong rider with a good kick, he said after his victory on Tuesday "I have felt pretty good since I finished the Vuelta" and he covered the late attack from Van Avermaet before riding away from him for a fine victory. 100/1 with Betway is too big, as is 79/1 with 888, he is only 40/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power. 

Thomas Voeckler showed some glimpses of his old self in the Giro di Lombardia with a solo attack and may well fancy a go tomorrow too. But at 40/1 I don't know if he is worth backing, I can't see him winning it. Jurgen Roelandts is another long-shot for the race at a decent looking 66/1 with Paddy Power. Winner of the U23 version of this race back in 2007, he is a a powerful classics rider who took 3rd in this year's Tour of Flanders behind Cancellara. Finally, a 500/1 long-shot in Geoffrey Lequatre - 7th here in 2011, but of more interest is that in 2010 he attacked on the Côte de Beau Soleil with 10km to go and held an 18" gap with just the 2.7km stretch of the Avenue de Grammont to go. A strong headwind though scuppered his chances and he was caught with 400m to go. He may well try something like that again tomorrow. 

So a wait and see on Degenkolb but a few each way bets scattered around on Van Avermaet (9/1), Leukemans (66/1 or 40/1 with Paddy Power, I've taken some 50/1 on Betfair), Roelandts (66/1) and Lequatre at 500/1. Trying to get matched at 100/1 or bigger on betfair on Van Rensburg (don't have a Betway or 888 account...)