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Published on Sunday, 09 October 2016 00:06

Paris Tours 2016

Sunday October 9th, 252.5kms

The 120th running of the Paris Tours race should be pretty special - a whole host of the world's best sprinters line up for one last dress rehearsel ahead of the big one next Sunday in Doha. Who will take the win on the famous Avenue de Grammont? 

The race will be the curtain call for the Swiss IAM Cycling team, which is taking its final bow after four years in the peloton. Michel Thétaz's team has had an extraordinary farewell season, netting 19 victories including one or more in each Grand Tour.

His riders will be looking to end the team's saga in style with its 20th win of the season. Olivier Naesen, who finished an angry second to LottoNL–Jumbo's Dylan Groenewegen in last Sunday's Tour de l'Eurométropole, will be leading the charge. These two are not the only riders on the start list who have had a good week: Arnaud Démare dominated Binche-Chimay-Binche on Tuesday, Sam Bennett defended his crown in Thursday's Paris–Bourges, and Nacer Bouhanni claimed the Tour de Vendée last Sunday. A win in the previous week is no guarantee of success in Paris–Tours, as John Degenkolb remains the only rider to do the double in the last decade with his Paris–Bourges — Paris–Tours combo in 2013.

The race was pretty incredible last year, a break of 31 getting away after only 11kms and after a brutally fast day, they were never caught by the peloton. The average speed of 49.6kmph was the fastest average speed for a one-day Classic in history, and as the break approached Tours on the hills outside the town Trentin and Van der Sande attacked and Van Avermaet came with them. The three of them were set to fight out the finish, only for Van Avermaet to get a front wheel puncture and could only watch on as Trentin took the sprint from TVDS (below).

It looked like it would be a sprinters race last year too, but the break scuttled that, will we see the same thing this year? There are so many sprinters in this race though, and teams who are desperate for one last win, that I think we will see it finish in a sprint for the first time since 2013 (2014 was won by Jelle Wallays who beat Thomas Voeckler in a two-up sprint 12" ahead of the bunch.  

The Route

Not a lot to say about the route, they head south from Dreux, a town they are leaving from for the first and head south for the best part of 200kms before they turn right and start heading west towards Tours before doubling back on themselves in the last 10kms for the run to the line. It's a long race at 252kms, but it's almost dead flat for the whole day, but it does get a little lumpy in the last few kilometres as they approach Tours, hilly enough to split up the race last year and saw Trentin, Van Avermaet and Van Der Sande get away from the break of the day and fight out the sprint to the finish.  

Contenders and Favourites

A quick run through the main contenders I see fighting this one out in betting order:

Nacer Bouhanni - 5/2 favourite - winner of the Tour de Vendée last Sunday, he looks in good form ahead of the World's, where he is leading the French charge for glory. Part of a strong looking Cofidis team with Soupe, Senechal, Laporte and co, he has a strong chance of taking another victory this week, but he was well off the pace in Paris Bourges, finishing 32nd. He has also come close, but not got the victory in stages in the Eneco, the GP Fourmies and Paris-Brussels recently, and that inconsistency puts me off him at that price. 

Fernando Gaviria - 5/1 - heads a very powerful Etixx squad that are looking for two in a row here, and he too looks in good shape at the moment. Two stage wins in Poland, a win in the Primus Classic and two 2nd places in the last month shows how good he is going. He is also one of the favourites for the World's next week and he will look to go there with a victory under his belt. With Boonen, Richeze, Meersman, Stybar and Sabatini on the team, they look by far and away the strongest squad here and are sure to be in the hunt for victory. 

Mark Cavendish - 15/2 - has he been sick? Hasn't he? Who knows, but his preparation has been far from ideal and I don't think he is in a right place at the moment and I'm not backing him tomorrow. 

Arnaud Demare - looked in fantastic shape in the Binch-Chimay-Binche, controlling the race over the closing kilometre, starting his sprint from a long way out but still holding off Stybar in the run to the line. 2nd in the Brussels Classic behind Boonen, but ahead of Bouhanni. Bouhanni is the team leader for the French World's team, but maybe Démare can make them think twice about that if he lands another victory here. 

Caleb Ewan leads the Orica team here and he too has been in good form lately, winning the Cyclassics Hamburg beating Degenkolb, Nizzolo and Van Poppel and the final stage of the Tour of Britain in London. Hayman, Docker, Cort-Nielsen, Keukeleire and Mezgec will give Etixx a good run for their money in the closing kilometres and I think they could come there in a line of four or five in the last two kilometres, charging to the front, ready to deliver Ewan for the sprint. 

Bryan Coquard was left out of the French World's squad, with two top sprinters in Bouhanni and Démare, so he could well be desperate to make a point tomorrow by taking this race ahead of those two. After a hot streak in June when he landed a number of wins, he hasn't been in winning form lately though and I think he could be looking at 5th to 10th place again. 

Sam Bennett has recovered from his bronchitis and is in superb shape at the moment. First he beat Cavendish in Toscana before landing a fine win in Paris Bourges this week. Bora-Argon seem to be clicking in the lead-out too  with Shane Archbold, Schwarzmann, Thwaites and Dempster going really well at the moment. Bennett is a confidence rider and after suffering a lot this year with injury in the Tour and so on, he looks to be in good confidence at the moment ahead of the World's. He could be fighting for a win here again I think and can go close. 

Tom Boonen is a good back-up for Gaviria should he get lost along the way, he was a great winner of the Brussels Cyclassics and 3rd in last week's Eurometropole behind the fighting Naesen and Groenewegen. Elia Viviani leads Sky in the sprint, but he hasn't won a race since March and this looks like a weak Sky team that is here, I don't think he'll be winning. 

Drucker, Jans, Guardini and Drucker, they can all get involved too, but I think they will be fighting out for the minor honours from 5th to 10th at best. 

This should be a great sprint I think, it's a good, wide, straight road for the last kilometre and should all the sprinters survive the lumpy run-in, we should see a battle royale on the legendary Avenue de Grammont. I think Gaviria has a great chance of making it two in a row for Etixx, because of the strength of the team. Bouhanni, Ewan and Bennett can chase him home and at the prices, Bennett at 16/1 appeals a little for the each-way. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Fernando Gaviria at 5/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 16/1 with Bet365

Match Bets

Bennett to beat Viviani, Bouhanni to beat Demare, Gaviria to beat Ewan, Coquard to beat Debusschere - 2pts on the four-fold at 4.1/1 with Bet365