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Published on Saturday, 07 April 2018 10:35

Paris-Roubaix 2018

Sunday 8th April, 257kms

After a Tour of Flanders to remember, it's on to the cobbles of northern France and the 'Hell of the North', Paris-Roubaix. No hills to speak of compared to Flanders, but lots more cobbles - 54.5kms of them in total.. 

QuickStep Floors continue to wipe the floor with all competition, with Niki Terpstra winning the Tour of Flanders and Fabio Jakobsen sprinting to victory in the Scheldeprijs on Wednesday. What a farce of a race that turned out to be! Wind and rain battering the peloton early doors, causing splits and echelons, with Kittel in trouble early on, only to be dragged back by his team-mates. Then when those riders that stupidly ran the red light and closing railway gates were thrown out of the race, the main peloton was down to only about 55 riders, which was whittled down further on the run to the finish. 

It saw my two picks Démare and Groenewegen thrown out of the race, that is some desperately bad luck that you cannot legislate for. But they were right to throw them out, no one should run a closing train barrier, it's crazy. Conor Dunne of AquaBlue said that he was literally so buried in effort to try to close the gaps he did not even see the lights or barrier until they were through it.. And he has a point though, where were the officials? Why wasn't there a flag man with a whistle there to protect the riders against a closing barrier they were hitting at 60kmph? 

It was very annoying as I think I had got it very right with my picks, Groenewegen went off favourite and Démare halved in price from 14/1 to 7/1.. not only that, but after a few punctures near the end, Kittel was cooked and couldn't even get back through the cars with the assistance of some team-mates. Maybe they wouldn't have beaten Jacobsen, we'll never know, but you'd have to think the two best sprinters in the race would probably have finished 1-2 or close to it. The matchbet double won though, to soften the blow to just over a point loss. Hopefully we'll get a turn of good luck this weekend to make up for it, we're due a turn of good luck. 

Paris-Roubaix is a different beast altogether to Flanders. The terrain may be flatter, allowing some riders a better chance than the hilly Ronde route, but it contains no less than 54.5kms of cobbles altogether in 29 sections this year. That is the same number of cobbled sections as last year, but 500m less. But there seems to be a lot of mud around this year based on some of the recon ride reports done this week (above). 

The route is more or less the same as last year, with a small change in the earlier part of the race, but the second half of the course is exactly the same. There are three five-star sectors, the highest degree of difficulty: Trouée d’Arenberg (sect. 18,  2.4km at 161.5km), the Mons-en-Pévèle (sect. 10, 3kms at 208.5km) and Le Carrefour de l’Arbre (sect. 4, 2.1km at 240km).

According to Thierry Gouvenou of the ASO when he elevated it to five-star status "With time, the Carrefour de l’Arbre has got harder and harder. In terms of difficulty, it’ll be right up there with the Arenberg Forest. Over the whole sector, I don’t think there’s a single level cobblestone" 

Known as 'L'enfer du Nord' or the 'Hell of the North' it was first run in 1896 and is one of the oldest cycling races in the world - it's the 116th edition of the race this year. On a dry day it chokes the riders and cakes them in the dust blown up off the road, on a wet and muddy day it can be treacherous with slippy cobbles, puddles covering holes and mud sprayed in their faces. The forecast for this weekend is pretty good though with almost no rain forecast and blue skies, but there could still be some mud out on the course to cause some problems.

Last year's race saw a brilliant victory for Greg Van Avermaet, when he outsprinted Zdenek Stybar and Sebastian Langeveld in the velodrome. It was a wild race, but a race in which BMC did a brilliant job. A split with about 35kms to go saw a small group including GVA and Stybar get a small lead on the 'Boonen Group' of about 30". Sagan punctured for the 2nd time with 32kms to go, but made it back to the Boonen group, but paid for his efforts later when he was dropped on the Carrefour de l'Arbre. 

The gap hovered around 30", but when the Van Avermaet group caught Oss, who had been up the road on the attack all day, Oss just went to the front and buried himself for about the next 6kms, holding the gap to the chasers. It was an incredible ride by Oss, who finally capitulated on the Carrefour de l'Arbre when GVA put the hammer down with 16kms to go. Langeveld came through, Stybar dived across a bend in front of a tiring Stuyven and six became three as Roelandts, Stuyven and Moscon lost contact. (below)

The chase lost impetus with the gap now back up to around 50" and as they approached the velodrome the cat and mouse games began, so much so that they let Moscon and Stuyven catch them on the last lap. Stybar started his sprint early, got two bike lengths lead rounding the final bend, but GVA's sprint was superb and he easily won it in the end. Stybar was distraught, after getting an armchair ride to the finish, in the guise of 'I'm waiting for Boonen', but Langeveld was delighted with his podium. And well he might have been, it was a fantastic ride out of the blue, don't think he was in anyone's mind for a podium spot that morning. 

The Route

Every year they start in Compiegne in the Place du Palais, just north of Paris and the first 93kms are pretty uneventful, flat and boring until they hit the first of the cobbled sections at Troisvilles to Inchy, a 3-star, 2,200m stretch to ease them in to the Pavé. Over the next 56kms they pass ten cobbled sections covering a total of 19.3kms of Pavé as they head predominantly northwards towards Valenciennes. 

The three 'Five-Star' sections of cobbles will have a major bearing on the outcome of the race. The first comes with 95kms left, section 19 of the Trouée d'Arenberg (the Trench of Arenberg) which is a punishing and very rough 2.4kms long (above). First proposed by Jean Stablinski, a former world champion who used to work in the local mine, it's an ominous and iconic section of 'road'.  As Stablinski said more than 50 years ago "Paris-Roubaix is not won in the Arenberg, but from there the group with the winner is selected."

Pippo Pozzato once described it as follows: "It's the true definition of hell. It's very dangerous, especially in the first kilometre when we enter it at more than 60kmph. It's unbelievable. The bike goes in all directions. It will be a real spectacle but I don't know if it's really necessary to impose it on us"

The next key five star section is the Mons-en-Pévèle section which comes with only about 49kms to go and has been a race-shaper on a number of occassions in the past. In 2010 Cancellara launched his race-winning move just before this section of pavé. In 2012, Boonen kicked off his long solo effort just before this section, putting the hammer down and quickly building up a lead.  In 2008 Stijn Devolder attacked here and helped set up Boonen for another of his wins. It's 3km long and the first 1,100m are in ok condition, but the last 1,100m are quite rough.

There's a series of tough cobbled sections that come one after the other in the last 40kms but it's the 4th last section of the Carrefour de l'Arbe with 17kms to go that can be a race maker or race breaker. Not only is it a place where the strongest will try to shed any remaining hangers-on by hammering it at the front, it is also a section which sees it's fair share of crashes and accidents. It's where GVA got rid of all bar Langeveld and Stybar last year. 

Then on to the finish in Roubaix.. First, one last section of cobbles, but it's flat and easy, almost procession-like in the town as they approach the velodrome and pass under the 1km to go flag. Then on to the finish, a lap and a half of the velodrome, which often sees the leading riders joined on their last lap by the chasers starting their first lap, or like last year, gapped riders making it back as those up front almost start to perform track stands and prepare for the sprint.

You have to time your sprint right and get the right line, if you are on your last legs you need to hug the track edge and try to hang on, if you've still got strength you can come around the top and try to outsprint your rivals.

Contenders and Favourites

Like Flanders, the betting is centred around Sagan, Van Avermaet and the QuickStep crew really, with ever-present in the betting Sep Vanmarcke popping in to the top five favourites too. What was noticeable about Flanders last weekend was just how hard the QSF 'domestiques' worked at the start of the race, chasing breaks, putting the peloton under pressure. This served two purposes - first, as there are only 7 riders in a team now, teams like QSF don't want to let a strong break go as it's hard to pull them back. Secondly, by going hard at the start they put weaker team-mates of their rivals under pressure, meaning they are isolated when it comes to the key parts of the race. 

Peter Sagan has been moaning since Flanders about other riders not wanting to work or to race against QSF, Boonen has told him to shut up and deal with it.. so shots fired to rile Sagan you'd think, but instead Sagan replied with a picture of Boonen high-fiving him when he won the World's in Richmond, with a heart imoji.. Hard to rattle Sagan eh..

But he was rattled again last weekend, he pulled out of chasing Terpstra when he went on the attack up towards the Hotondberg, and that was the decisive moment, so he can't really complain. He looked very comfortable and relaxed to me every time he came past us on the Kwaremont, except for the last time when they were chasing, he was hanging on to Benoot as he pushed it at the front. 

He's never finished on the podium in this race, with 6th place his best result in 2014, he was 38th last year, but well out of the running a long way from home. A late puncture, on top of the crash he suffered in Flanders put paid to him, he was dropped like a stone on the Carrefour I think it was. I ruled him out of my picks last weekend in Flanders, I'm ruling him out here again this weekend, even though he's favourite. I just don't think he's 100% and he always seems to find trouble in Flanders. If it is the case that QSF gang up on him again and fire riders up the road, I can see him throw his toys out the pram again and refuse to chase. Chances are that others will be pretty tired and reluctant to chase too and he could see his chances disappear up the road again. 

What about Greg Van Avermaet then? I also avoided him last weekend too, I don't think he's at his best either at the moment, and he never really looked in command last weekend either in Flanders. He did manage to finish 5th though, but he wasn't even able to go with Gilbert and Valgren when they attacked at the finish to fight out the third step on the podium. 

Of course he was the winner of this in fine style last year, out-sprinting Stybar in the finishing straight. But he seems to have been a very different rider this time last year, on a far higher level than he has displayed so far this year. He is a master over the cobbles though of course and has a very strong and experienced team with him, and they know how to ride this course as we saw last year. The loss of Oss is a big blow to him, but Roelandts, Schar, Kung and Drucker will keep him in contention.

If he comes to the finish with a bunch of non-sprinters like last year, he probably wins, but will someone be able to shake him off this year, like in so many races so far this year, or could it even be a sprint finish with some sprinters involved?

If so, then he might not win.. And I'm not confident enough in him to back him at just 8/1 best price, although that is with Skybet paying 4 places, and he might just come home in the next best group if there happens to be a solo winner. Don't touch Ladbrokes laughable price of 3/1 though, looks like they haven't updated their prices since the end of last year's race.. 

Sep Vanmarcke's run of bad luck in Flanders continues - after crashing out horribly last year when in a good position, he crashed twice this year before the race even got going properly. He still managed to get involved in the business end of the race though, but again, had nothing left when things got serious late in the race, finishing 13th, last of the eight in the Van Avermaet group. He loves this race too though and his power can be a lot more effective over the flatter course of Roubaix.

He missed it last year of course after his horrible crash in Flanders, but in the previous four years he has finished 4th, 11th, 4th and 2nd, going down narrowly to Cancellara in 2013 with Terpstra and GVA 31" behind them. The next year when Terpstra won it with one of his trademark slip-away attacks Vanmarcke finished 3rd in the sprint behind Degenkolb and Cancellara, with Stybar and Sagan behind them.

He had a great chance again in 2016 when coming to the Velodrome as part of a quartet, but finished last of the four.. That's his problem though.. if he comes to the finish with almost any other rider, he's going to lose a sprint, so he'll have to win it solo if he's going to win it.. and he will find it very hard to ride away from this lineup. But I think he is capable of being part of the winning move, so the 11/1 with Skybet paying 4 places is just about acceptable I think as I think he'll give us a good run for our money again.  

And so on to the Wolfpack.. Any one of about four or five of their team can win this, with particularly strong chances for Niki Terpstra, Philippe Gilbert and Zdenek Stybar. Niki Terpstra is in superb form as we know, winning with ease three times already this season over cobbles, can he carry on his great run of form and claim a rare Flanders/Roubaix double?

His results for the last 3 years if you were looking at them raw wouldn't fill you with too much confidence, with DNF, DNF and 16th.. but he has been unlucky, and was not in the form then he is in this year. And if you go back to the three years before that, he finished 1st, 3rd and 5th, so it's not like he can't ride the course. 

I really thought the others wouldn't let a QSF rider just ride away from them all in Flanders like Gilbert did last year, maybe they were all watching Gilbert too closely and took their eye off of Terpstra. Will he be allowed do it again?

Well maybe they might be powerless to stop him if he really goes for it again, he knows how to light it up on the cobbles and if he gets even 20" we all know by now how hard it is to close that gap down on Terps. He is like SVM though, he'll have to win it solo. 

It all depends on what the masterplan for QSF is, that is, if there is one.. is one rider going to be the designated leader? Will it just be a bit of a free-for-all and let who's best on the road decide? They will probably take it in turns again to hit and counter hit, but who will make the ultimate move count? Terpstra is probably going to be involved you would think in the decisive move, but I am worried for him that he will find it a bit more difficult to get away this time. 

Second option for them is Philippe Gilbert, another rider who you would think is sure to be a key part of the race and one that might attack and attack as much as he can in the last 50kms. But then you look and see that he has only done this race once ever and you think that maybe this race just isn't for him.

He is more of an Ardennes rider as we know, with a bit of the hilly Flanders races thrown in, but the flat Roubaix course doesn't suit him as much as others. It might be that we see him doing a lot of pulling and driving earlier in the key parts of the race, but I'm not backing him based on his aversion for this race in the past. 

And then we come to Zdenek Stybar, and I really like his chances actually. 2nd twice, including last year, 5th and 6th in previous editions, this boy knows how to power over the cobbles. His cyclo-cross background is a huge help to him on a slippy and muddy course, and not only that but he seems to be very strong this year too. I just have a sneaking suspicion that Stybar has been earning the credits in all his races so far to see him as team leader for this and the whole team riding for him.

He also is one that will need to ride away solo though, but if Terpstra and the rest can keep poking and prodding and tiring out the others and Stybar keeps his powder dry, he might just be able to ride away from them on one of the final cobbled sectors and solo to the finish. He's generally 12-14/1 so the 12/1 with Skybet again paying four places appeals, as he has a good chance of a top 4 finish I think. 

And then they also have Florian Senechal, who won the Paris-Roubaix Juniors in 2011 and finished 9th in the Espoirs version in 2012. He hasn't quite matched those sorts of results in the pro ranks just yet, but is starting to settle in to his role with QSF and a decent result can't be far off.

And there's Yves Lampaert who won DDV a few weeks back in style, he seemed to be in great form, but only finished 29th in Flanders, he wasn't able to go with the main moves of the day. But he did finish 7th here in 2015, just 7" behind the Degenkolb winning group, but his other two results are 82nd and 108th, so hit and miss for him. I think he and Senechal will be working though, unless it falls his way for some reason. 

Next in the betting is former winner John Degenkolb and he ranges between 8/1 and 16/1, although he is a far bigger 37/1 on Betfair, for some reason, someone is happy to take him on on Betfair. I was told months ago from someone in the Trek camp that he was training really well over the winter, was really strong, but PR was his main target of the season.. He was around 12/1 earlier in the year, he's still around that, and has been slowly coming in to form this season, ready to peak for this. 

He won his first two races of the season and have a few top 10s to his name, but his results in the big races haven't been great so far this year. He was going well in Flanders, but along with Kristoff, Démare and a few others, he blew up on the last push up the Kwaremont. This is far more up his street though, as we know with his 1st in 2015 and 2nd in 2014, and even last year, when he wasn't really in great form at all, he managed 10th. I think he will be involved again this year and I think the 37/1 is huge and has to be backed. 

Another sprinter with a chance is Arnaud Démare who has some making up to do after his faux-pas in Scheldeprijs on Wednesday. He has had mixed luck here in the past but had his best result so far last year with 6th place, winning the sprint behind the lead group.

If he can stay with the leaders coming to the Velodrome he too has a big chance, and he will be extra motivated after blowing a big chance of winning the Scheldeprijs. But he has a weak team here with him and I think he may well be on his own hitting the last 30kms or so and he might struggle to go with the big late moves on the hardest cobbled sections. 

Another sprinter who could have a chance in this is Alexander Kristoff, that is if he can get to the finish with the leaders.. but in the nine times he has raced this he has DNF'ed four times.. but he has managed a 9th and a 10th place in his time.. I am not sure he'll be involved Sunday, I can see him running in to trouble again and having no team-mates around him to look after him. 

Wout Van Aert landed yet another amazing result with 9th in his first ever Flanders at the weekend, and it would be no surprise to see him land another top 10 on Sunday. He was as big as 125/1 for this a few months back but is now just 18/1 best price after the storming season he's had to date. But can we really expect him to step up and land a big win, or even a podium in his first ever Roubaix, even if it is going to be wet and muddy in parts..? I'm sure he'd like it a lot wetter and a lot muddier.. 

Oliver Naesen had a lot of bad luck recently, crashing in Dwars Door and injurying his knee but he still managed to start Flanders on Sunday. He was going ok but then crashed again on the approach to the Muur and spent a long time chasing back on. He made it, but he said that he had raced about 15kms on his own, or as he put it 'that was my finale there, I had nothing left, I was shattered'.

He was very happy just to finish though and said that his knee held up well. Roubaix suits him a lot better he says and is looking forward to Sunday, he's just looking for a change of luck. He did finish 13th here in 2016, I think he will break the top ten this year, but I'm not sure he'll podium.

Gianni Moscon probably leads Sky, but he hasn't been doing as well as he should have been in recent big races for me to be considered a big player for this race on Sunday, but he was right there in the mix last year until GVA put the hammer down. 

Dylan Van Baarle will also be involved you'd think but may not have the power to go with the big moves towards the end, and will not win a sprint.. Luke Rowe has some making up to do after being disqualified in Flanders last weekend, but he has finished 8th and 14th here in the past, he might well end up being Sky's best finisher, and he will have supporters at 66/1. 

Jasper Stuyven could also be one of those stubborn guys that just hangs in there to the very end, maybe getting dropped a little at times, but catching up again after the cobbles end. He got burnt off by Van Avermaet and Stybar towards the end last year but took a fine 4th place. He may be tasked with working for Degenkolb Sunday, but if Dege falls out of it for any reason, then he might get involved. 

Mads Pedersen was 400/1 for this two weeks ago, he's 33/1 now.. ok, he might pull off another stunning ride like he did last weekend, but no thanks at that price. 

Matteo Trentin and Luke Durbridge are probably Mitchelton-Scott's best hopes of a good result, Trentin has been riding pretty well, without really excelling, and he has never really gone well here in the past. Durbo has finished 18th in 2016, but that's his best result.

And then of course they have Matthew Hayman, probably one of the biggest surprise winners of a Monument in many a year, when he took it at 600/1 in 2016. But he has also finished 8th, 10th and 11th in the past.. Hard to see him repeating those sorts of results Sunday at the ripe old age of (almost) 40 though..   

Edvald Boasson Hagen, Ian Stannard, Geraint Thomas and Tony Martin might all got involved too but I'm not interested in any of them either. Jens Keukeleire looks big at 150/1 with Skybet paying 4 places..

Outsiders I like though - firstly, Mike  Teunnisen at 80/1 with Skybet.. Why? Well he won the Paris-Roubaix espoirs race just four years ago and finished 8th in 2012 when just 20 years old. He has been riding really well this year too with some great results in Paris-Nice, 2nd in DDV and 18th in Flanders.

Also, I'm going to give Heinrich  Haussler another go as he has finished 6th here twice in the past, and has been getting stronger and stronger.. He's best price 50/1 with Skybet and again the four places make it a bet worth a shot at. 

So how does it pan out then? Well QuickStep will once again hold the key to this so you have to have one of them onside I think. And as I said already above, I have a hunch that this one is going to be Stybar's to go for, supported by his very powerful team-mates.

GVA and Sagan are sure to be right up there too, but I have a feeling too that we might see a small group of maybe 15 or so come to the finish together. And I'm hoping that John Degenkolb is indeed one of them and gives us a chance in the sprint, with SVM, Teunissen and Haussler also hopefully in the mix late in the race. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on John Degenkolb at 37/1 on Betfair

1pt on John Degenkolb to place at 5/1 with Betfair

0.5pts e/w on Sep Vanmarcke at 12/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

1pt e/w on Zdenek Stybar at 11/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.3pts e/w on Mike Teunissen at 80/1 with Skybet paying 4

0.3pts e/w on Heinrich Haussler at 50/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

Match-Bets:

Teunissen to beat Roosen and Démare to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 11/10

Degenkolb to beat EBH and Haussler to beat Petit - 2pts at 1.6/1

Trentin to beat Cort Neilsen - 2pts at evens

Langeveld to beat Hayman and Stybar to beat Naesen - 2pts at 6/4 all with 365

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch for Fantasy Cycling games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

Here's my ten to watch for Paris Roubaix

1 Peter Sagan 

2 Greg Van Avermaet

3 John Degenkolb

4 Oliver Naesen

5 Sep Vanmarcke 

6 Dylan Van Baarle

7 Zdenek Stybar 

8 Niki Terpstra 

9 Mike Teunnisen

10 Heinrich Haussler

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