Details

Published on Friday, 28 February 2020 17:13

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad 

Merelbeke - Ninove

Sat 29th February, 200kms

Just like in 2019 the traditional opener of the Classics season starts at ’t Kuipke in Ghent and finishes on the Onderwijslaan in Ninove. Not only is it unusual this year in that it occurs on a leap day, it's also the 75th edition of the race. 

There are hardly any changes to last year's route, they are sticking with the move of the finish from Meerbeke to Ninove they made last year. The Bosberg and the Mur de Geraardsbergen will again play a prominent role in the Omloop, with the Mur coming just 17kms from the finish and the Bosberg just 12.8kms.

We've had quite the start to the season already eh, this is the first time I have sat down to write about it and there's been so much happening it's hard to summarise it all without writing more than I had intended to do on the Omloop preview itself! First off we had Richie doing his thing down under again, storming to victory, but it wasn't on Willunga hill this time he did the damage, but Paracombe.

Instead, it was British youngster Mattie Holmes who jumped on Richie's wheel as he came past the remnants of the break and had more speed at the finish to record a sensational first win in the pro ranks. Sam Bennett won in his first ever race for DQS, Caleb Ewan took two sprints and even Giacomo Nizzolo got in on the action when DQS screwed up on stage 5.

Dries Devenyns took an impressive win in the Cadel Evans and Matteo Moschetti took some more wins for Trek in the Spanish prep races, as did Marc Soler and Manu Buchmann. Tadej Pogacar continued to show what a special talent he is with a superb victory in Valenciana, taking the two key stages, including doing a Valverde on Valverde. Dylan Groenewegen was very impressive too taking two sprints, one of which he came from a mile back with just 200m to go.

Fabio Jakobsen has also started the season well, taking a stage in Valenciana and the Volta ao Algarve, Nacer Bouhanni and Nairo Quintana rolled back the years for Arkea Samsic in the Tour de la Provence, Bouhanni winning a sprint for the first time since August 2018, and Nairo Quintana DESTROYING the field with the fastest ever time up to Chalet Reynard to seal the overall victory.

Bouhanni carried on his good form in the Saudi Tour winning a stage and taking a 2nd, two 3rds and a 5th, his best results in a very long time. Nairo continued to stick two fingers up at Movistar with another superb win on Col d'Eze in the Tour des Alpes Maritimes et du Var, finishing ahead of Romain Bardet and Richie Porte on the GC. 

The sprinters have really been sharing the wins around, with Bennett, Ewan, Jakobsen, Bouhanni, Ackermann, Gaviria, Moschetti, Nizzolo, Bol and Groenewegen all having landed wins, with Kristoff, Viviani and Modolo finishing runners-up.. All sets up nicely for KBK on Sunday!

Astana have put their pre-season 'complications' of a link between Jakob Fuglsang and Dr Ferrari behind them, and in fact Fuglsang has come out firing like a proverbial V12 in his first race of the season at the Ruta del Sol, winning two stages, finishing 2nd in two and 6th in the other. His 2nd in the TT was seriously impressive, only bested by an unbelievable ride by Dylan Teuns, who was on fire all week too and can count himself unlucky to have been up against Fuglsang. 

Jack Haig has also been very impressive in his two races so far this season, winning a stage and finishing 2nd overall in the Ruta and finishing no lower than 7th in all 5 stages. He also finished 2nd overall in Valenciana but was no match for young superstar Pogacar. And speaking of young superstars, what about Remco Evenepoel - winner of the Vuelta San Juan after a demolition job in the TT and having climbed with the best of them, he followed that up with a win in the Volta ao Algarve with a sensational performance.

First he stunned some of the best climbers in the world with his late attack on Alto da Foia, then destroyed the opposition again in the TT, including World Champion Rohan Dennis. As a result, he is now as short as 9/2 with the bookies to win the TT-heavy Giro, the same price as Simon Yates.. He's just turned 20 in January let me remind you..

And then this week, as I write this, in the UAE Tour we've seen Pascal Ackermann win a messy sprint on stage 1, Caleb Ewan just get the better of Bennett on the Hatta Dam and Adam Yates pull off one of the performances of the year so far to destroy the others, and the record time up to Jabel Hafeet on stage 3. Stage 4 saw Tadej Pogacar win it for the home team by the narrowest of margins as Lutsenko celebrated too early, and then the race came to an abrupt Coronavirus halt. 

On to the Omloop

And so we move on to the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and the start of the cobbled classics. This race used to be known as the 'Het Volk' back in the day, but is now named after the Het Nieuwsblad, a Belgian newspaper that is a great supporter of racing in Belgium. Both races are hors d'ouevres to the cobbled classics to come, with plenty of the familiar cobbles and climbs.

In 2018 the Flanders Classics organisers tried to revive 'the memory' of the old Tour of Flanders with a finish that takes in the Muur de Geraardsbergen and the Bosberg and finishes in Ninove. This finish was last used in the Ronde back in 2011 when Nick Nuyens took a surprise win for Saxo, ahead of Chavanel, Cancellara and Boonen.

But there was a surprise winner in Michael Valgren, as he jumped away from a strong lead group of 11 inside the final 2.5kms, and with Astana having two more men in the 11, they were able to block and hinder the chase attempts. Valgren put down the power and was not for catching.

And last year we had another great race, with an Elite group forming off the front with just over 40kms to go that contained all of the pre-race favourites. Tiesj Benoot crashed on a left-hand bend with 29kms to go and caused a split that saw Van Avermaet, Stybar, Teuns, Leutsenko, Oss and Wellens take a small lead in to the Muur. Stybar turned on the power with GVA, but behind Gilbert and the rest were only 13" behind as they passed the church. 

But once again we saw the situation where a chasing group can't agree on who will chase, so none of them commit, and a potential win just disappeared up the road as the leaders were 100% committed to staying away. At the top of the Bosberg the lead was 26", with Tim Wellens hanging on for dear life. The cat-and-mouse started inside the last 4kms, Wellens tried attacking up the other side of a road island,

GVA chased him down, but as he sat up after the effort, Stybar attacked hard down the left and no-one could go with him this time. It was all over very quickly as the others all settled for a 2nd place shoot-out, Stybar landed his second classic in style, with Van Avermaet taking 2nd from Wellens. 

A lot of riders ride both races, although Saturday's Omloop is usually more suited to the punchier, stronger Classics men, whereas Sunday's KBK is usually one for the sprinters, usually, but not always how it turns out... 

This is a race where you usually have to watch the weather forecast carefully. If there is a danger the cobbled sections will be too dangerous, they change the route. The weather for Saturday isn't great, but shouldn't cause any problems with the route. Rain is forecast for most of the day, with strong winds - around 23-25kmph.. So expect echelons and incidents along the way, with the way the roads wind back and forth and around in so many different directions in the crucial second half of the race, there will be plenty of opportunities to split things in the cross-winds. 

The Route

The route is quite similar to previous races, with a run up the Mur de Geraardsbergen and the Bosberg but the finish of the race finishes again in Ninove instead of Merebeke. It starts in Ghent and heads south and they hit the first cobbled stretch of the race at the Haaghoek after just 39kms (was after 62kms last year). It's a longish stretch at 2kms, but shouldn't cause too many problems, but just 3kms later they go up their first hill of the race, the Leberg (950m at 4.2%), 20kms earlier than last year. 

They reach the second cobbled section after 70kms at the Huisepontweg (1800m) and 6kms later the next hill (Den Ast), and there's a gap then for 25kms before the hills and cobbles start to come thick and fast. 

The key section of the race is the 55kms or so between the Valkenberg, which they climb after 134kms, and the Bosberg after 187kms. In between they tackle the Wolvenberg, Molenberg, Leberg, Berendries and the Muur-Kappelmuur one after the other, spread only 4 or 5kms apart each time. The Leberg is the longest at 950m, but only averages 4.2%, the Valkenberg is the steepest at 8.1% but is only 540m long. 

After the new climb that was introduced last year of the Elverenberg-Vossenhol after 172kms they start on their straight-ish run for home, first running 10kms in a south-easterly direction, being buffeted by a cross-wind from their right until they reach Geraardsbergen and take on the infamous Muur van Geraarddsbergen (475m at 9.3%, max of 19.8%) with just 17kms to go..

This is sure to have a big impact on the race again, it's steep and twisting and can blow a group to pieces in about 30 seconds. And if that wasn't enough to blow things up, they then face the Bosberg just 4kms later, a really nasty hill with 400m of cobbles (980m at 5.8%, max of 11%).  

They now head north-east with a tail-wind for 7kms as far as Denderwindeke where they turn north and run along an almost dead-straight road for 3.5kms, descending gently all the while, until they reach Ninove with 2kms to go. They turn left in to a head-wind for 500m and then arc around to their right through the 1km to go banner (right).

With 600m to go they turn sharp right, then 200m later turn right again, then sharp left again on to the 200m finishing straight, ridden with the wind coming over their right shoulders.

Contenders and Favourites

So the first big cobbled race of the season and the start of the season 'proper' for most cycling fans. It is always a good opener to the Spring Classics as it uses a lot of the same roads as the likes of the Tour of Flanders, but at the same time is a very different race to the Ronde.

The big news from the race, and a betting point of view, was of course the announcement on Thursday afternoon by Alpecin Fenix that Mathieu Van Der Poel would not be racing due to illness. The 2/1 favourite was taken out and well done to you if you managed to get any of the fancy prices on the others before they were chopped.. I had placed my bets earlier this week so I'm sitting on some nice bets, but they are much lower in price now. 

We have to start with last year's winning team, Deceuninck QuickStep. One of the surprising things for me though is you have to go back to 2005 for the last time this 'team' has won OHN, when Nick Nuyens pulled off a big shock. Zdenek Stybar was an impressive winner last year, was clearly the strongest at the finish and executed the sprint like a seasoned sprinter. And what a squad they have here again this year, you could almost make a case for every single one on the team as potential winners.

Stybar won in 2020 and was 7th in 2015, but generally has been working for others over the years, like for Philippe Gilbert or Niki Terpstra. He seized his chance last year with both hands and worked over his breakaway colleagues with a well-timed attack. It means of course he will be watched a lot closer this year, but anyone with a DQS shirt on always is.

He has only raced in San Juan this year, so we don't have a lot of form to go on, but he did take an impressive win in the stage on the race track at El Villicum, jumping off the front inside the last kilometre and showing incredible power to hold off the late charge from the sprinters. If he shows that sort of power again this year inside the last few kilometres, not many will be able to stay with him. At 12/1 though, I'm not sure.. 

DQS also have a number of other potential winners - Bob Jungels is high up in the betting too at 18/1, and the winner of last year's KBK clearly loves the roads around here and the racing at this time of the year. Like Stybar, it's been all about training for Jungels, with a trip to the Tour of Colombia, where he finished 2nd in the TT, his only race so far this year too.

Possessing a massive engine and the ability to spot a dangerous move, or start a move himself when the opportunity arises, Jungels is a real danger in any race. Add in the tactical games that DQS could play and Jungels could be the one that gets in that final selection. But he'll have to win solo, he won't beat many in a sprint, and I can't see that happening. 

Kasper Asgreen, Florian Senechal and Yves Lampaert are three more who could do the business for them, especially with the weather forecast pretty foul for Saturday, they all like a cold and wet day in the saddle. Asgreen was a very impressive 2nd in the Ronde last year, a ride that has gone under the radar a little I think. Senechal is also capable of a big ride and seems to be getting better and better each year, taking Le Samyn on a cold day last year and 2nd in Dwars Door two years ago. 

Yves Lampaert has had a mediocre start to the season, but at least he has raced in Europe, in Valenciana and the Algarve. 7th here last year, twice winner of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and 3rd in 2019's Paris Roubaix, he copes well with the cobbles, but seems to struggle a little with the hills sometimes, he's never had a great result in hillier races. The cold and wet will be in his favour though, he seems to go well in bad weather conditions, so he really is a hard one to call.. 

Greg Van Avermaet leads the CCC Team and in my eyes has to have a strong chance of at the very least a podium. Twice winner of this race, in 2016 and 2017, he has also finished 2nd twice, 4th, 5th twice and 6th. 8 of the last 11 runnings he has finished in the top 6, Greg starts his seasons well, with the main aim of his season being the Spring Classics - this is one of his favourite races and a great prep for Flanders.

And he is looking very strong already this season, he looked good in both Valenciana and the Algarve. He seemed to be climbing particularly well, hanging in there for a long time on the Alto do Foia with the top climbers, only relenting when the pace really hotted up in the last kilometre, but he finished an impressive 15th on the stage. He also finished 15th on the stage to Mahao won by Miguel Angel Lopez, just 27" down on the winner.

They have a decent, experienced team around him, I'd imagine Matteo Trentin will be looking after him for as long as possible, with the idea being that the favour gets returned on Sunday in KBK where Trentin will have a good chance. The team are saying they are joint captains and that "having two cards to play puts us in a much better position and will allow the team to race more aggressively than we have in the past." There has been a lot of money for Trentin though today after MVDP's withdrawal, with he now in to just 7/1, CCC have the first two in the betting now. 

The three other Vans - Kiersbulck, Hooydonck and Hoecke, Michael Schar and Jonas Koch are all good support men and can chase down attacks or get GVA in the right position at the right time to try to do some damage. He had this to say "I'm feeling really good and I think my shape is as good as the last years, if not better, at this point in the season,I was happy with the way I raced at Volta ao Algarve, especially as none of the stages were really suited to me. The Classics are my big focus in the first half of the year so my season really starts this weekend". I expect another big result from Greg Saturday and I'm on from 7/1, he's now a lot shorter of course, just 9/2.

Lotto Jumbo weren't supposed to be starting Wout Van Aert in this race, but suddenly Wednesday morning they announced that he was and he was installed the 4th favourite at 16/1. Up until then, it looked like Mike Teunnisen was going to be team leader, but now you'd imagine it's all in for Wout.

They and he must be pretty confident seeing as they added him at such short notice, it might have something to do with how well he has been training in Tenerife ahead of the season proper.. Van Aert stole a KOM from Chris Froome this wee, he covered the Guía De Isora climb in 7:51, averaging 29.5km/h over the 3.86km ascent that has an average grade of 4%, taking 4" off of Froome's record. 

After suffering horrendous injuries after crashing in last year's stage 13 TT, Van Aert didn't race for the rest of the season, only returning in cyclo cross races this winter, where he finished 5th in the Worlds and took a fine win in the Trofee Krawatencross earlier this month. I'm hearing that he is in superb shape and is not only climbing really well, but he's gotten faster and more confident in his sprint too this year...

There is a worry that he might be ring-rusty after such a long period out and it being his first race of the season, but he started last season with 13th in OHN, then 3rd in Strade, 6th in MSR and 2nd in E3 BB. So we should not worry too much about him starting his seasons slowly. I'm all over him at 16/1 and 14/1, he's now just 13/2, but I think that is still worth taking with MVDP out. 

AG2R have a solid chance too with Oliver Naesen, the Belgian has finished 7th, 10th and 13th here in the past and loves it around these roads, he hails from Oostende, just 60kms away and trains here regularly. He had a really good year last year, which included 2nd in MSR and 2nd in Binche-Chimay-Binche and a stage win in the BinckBank Tour, but he is a very infrequent winner, especially in high quality races like this. 

He's had a low-key start to the year, but it's all been about training for the next month, and he's looking forward to getting stuck in. He spent the last week training on his roads and says he is ready. He has more or less the same team as last year 'Strong guys' as he put it, and he has his brother Lawrence with him too.

Stijn Vandenbergh has finished 2nd in 2013 and 4th in 2015, in that infamous race won by Ian Stannard when he beat the three Quicksteppers. He's a real workhorse and will look after Oli well until things get serious. But it's hard to see Naesen winning it, as he won't be let go up the road on his own, and won't win a sprint against many either.

Speaking of Ian Stannard, it's a long time since we've seen him do anything of note in a race, let alone land a podium spot, but he has been chopped from a ridiculous 500/1 to around 50/1 this week. A few intrepid shrewdies took that price earlier in the week and the dive is probably more related to liabilities than an accurate reflection of his chances.. which I'm afraid are closer to the 500/1 he was. 

Ineos have a few other outside chances in Owain Doull, Gianni Moscon and Ben Swift, but they are long shots too. Doull has some form though at least, winning the last stage of the Tour de la Provence on a hilly, cold day, just holding on from the break by seconds, outsprinting Mattie Brandle. 

On paper Trek Segafredo have a really strong team on paper - cold and wet you say? Step forward World Champion Mads Pedersen! The strongest at the end of a foul day in Yorkshire last September, I really couldn't believe it when he outsprinted my 25/1 shot Matteo Trentin, I saw Trentin sit down in front of my eyes from my spot with 100m to go and knew he was done.. A low-key prep to the season in Australia, where he was just training in the TDU, he stepped it up a little in the CEGORR with a 16th place finish, but this is his first race back in Europe. 

He has form in races like this - a very impressive and unexpected 2nd place in the 2018 Ronde at only 22 years of age was followed by 5th in the Dwars Door, coming home in the lead group that left Lampaert slip the net in the closing stages. He's never come close to even featuring in the finale of this race though, 39th is his best result back in 2015. That record doesn't give me much confidence in him to start his season with a bang, 

They also have Jasper Stuyven and Edward Theuns here who are two also in with chances. Stuyven has won KBK in 2016 and was 2nd the next year, and has also finished 4th in Paris-Roubaix, but it's been a few years since he has been at his best in the spring in my opinion, he seems to finish his season's a lot stronger these days, if you look at his results last year for example. 

Edward Theuns has a 2nd in Dwars Door and the Scheldeprijs, as well as a win in the Primus Classic, and has managed a 6th (2018) and a 4th in this race in the past, but finished way down in 53rd last year - so a good and a bad result on this newer course. He did crash in the Algarve though and it was bad enough that they decided to pull him out of the final day TT to give him more time to recover.. a worry in the back of my mind.. 

They also have Quinn Simmons in their ranks on Saturday, one of the youngest ever riders in OHN at just 18 years of age, but he's no ordinary youngster, he destroyed the junior field in the World Championships in Yorkshire last year, in apocalyptic conditions. He also finished 4th in the TT just 3 days earlier, showing how strong he is.. But this is a whole new ball game for him and it will be a real baptism of fire, he'll never have raced in anything like this.

He has though over 1700kms of racing in his legs this year and has won the Junior Gent Wevelgem last year, so it wouldn't be a massive shock to see him involved towards the end. 

Lotto Soudal have two strong fanices in Philippe Gilbert and Tim Wellens, but it's a pretty inexperienced and lightweight squad other than that, I think they will be on their own a long way from home. Gilbert is of course a master on the cobbles, and is a two-time winner of the race, albeit way back in 2006 and 2008 when he rode for FDJ, but he has also finished 5th in 2018 and 8th twice. 

Winner of the Paris Roubaix last year, Flanders in 2017, he's still capable of a big result, even at nearly 38 years of age. Two training rides in the Algarve and Valenciana, like a lot of others preparing for the Flanders races, he didn't show much, but he didn't need to, and the stages weren't really his cup of tea anyway.

You can be sure though that his training and prep will have him spot on for this. He finished 3rd in the main group last year, but he was doing a great blocking job with Lampaert and Jungels to help Stybar stay up the road and take the win. Will he be working for Wellens though, or will Wellens be working for him?

You would think that Gilbert gets the nod for this, Wellens might have better opportunities in the Ardennes races, but Wellens seemed to be in pretty good form in the Algarve, taking 5th place on that MTF to Alto Do Foia won by Remco Evenepoel, and finished 5th overall. It might all depend on who gets in the right move at the right time. I can't see either of them winning it though, but two solid top-ten places are very possible. 

EF Education First are led by Sep Vanmarcke and the reports I'm hearing are that Sep is in really good shape right now. He warmed up for this with some training races in the Tour de la Provence and Tour des Alpes, although he didn't finish the Tour des Alpes, DNF'ing on stage 3, looks like he couldn't be arsed to ride up to Mount Faron! Winner of this in 2012, he's also finished 3rd twice, 4th and 5th, he is remarkably consistent in this race. Caught up in incidents last year, he finished over 6 minutes down and he'll be looking to redeem himself this year and has a big chance at a big price of 33/1 with Ladbrokes. 

EF have a second card to play though in Jens Keukeleire,who started the season well with a great ride in the CEGORR,  finishing 4th. He goes well traditionally in the Spring Classics, but his best result in OHN is just 11th, he just doesn't seem to click with this race for some reason. 

Bahrain Merida have a chance with Sonny Colbrelli, if the cards fall right for him, but I've a feeling he'll be keeping his powder dry for Sunday, when a tougher KBK than usual might be right up his street. They also have Dylan Teuns who was flying in Andalucia, with two 3rds, two 6ths and a stunning, surprise win in the TT. He can count himself unlucky not to have won at least one stage, he was clearly the fastest at the finishes, but the breakers took the wins.  

He's never ridden Flanders or Paris Roubaix as a pro, but did finish 6th in the Junior Flanders in 2009.. His first OHN in 2015 wasn't so great, finishing 38th, but last year he really stepped it up a notch, finishing in the leading group, but he was completely empty and couldn't go with Stybar when he attacked at the death, and finished last of the four. With his form in Andalucia, he has to be respected here, and he might be given the freedom to go for it, with Colbrelli taking a back-seat until Sunday. 

Others to watch? Tiesj Benoot and Soren Kragh Andersen can go well for Sunweb, Alexander Kristoff should be more suited to Sunday, but you can be sure that if he's in the right place at the right time he will not hold back. Niki Terpstra and Damien Gaudin will be Total Direct Energie's best bets, Terpstra is sure to be in the mix. But that's about it as far as I'm concerned, I can't see anyone else getting involved. Nils Politt is probably Israel SUN's best chance, he was 19th here last year, but don't forget he was a brilliant 2nd behind Gilbert in Paris Roubaix last year. At 50/1 he'll have his backers.  

So decision time.. I think we'll get a similar sort of outcome to last year's race, with a strong group of maybe less than 10 getting away in the last 20kms, with the Mur and the Bosberg deciding who makes it. I think we'll get a lot of late attacks and anyone with a team-mate will obviously be at an advantage. DQS are sure to have 2 or 3 in the vanguard, with Stybar their best hope probably, I'm not sure Jungels and Lampaert will stay with the leaders up the Mur. 

I've made it pretty obvious, I've been sweet on Van Avermaet for a few weeks and have him at 7/1, I think he will be a key player in this again and should be a big shout for a podium place. As soon as I heard Wout Van Aert was riding on Wednesday morning before it was public I tried to get a price for him with the bookies, but none responded until after it was announced, but I immediately took the 16/1 and 14/1 that was available. I am hearing good things as I said and I really fancy him for this now. Sep Vanmarcke is also supposed to be going really well and he could be a good each-way shot too at 33/1. 

It's great to have proper racing back, but to be fair there has been some brilliant racing already this season as I highlighted above and it bodes well for a very exciting season. Let's just hope that the Corona Virus doesn't continue to cause disruptions, Milan San Remo and Strade Bianche are already under threat and as we saw just yesterday, the UAE Tour has already fallen victim to it.  

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Greg Van Avermaet of 5/1 with Betway

1pt e/w on Wout Van Aert at 8/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts e/w on Sep Vanmarcke at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

Match Bets 

Stybar to beat Jungels and Van Avermaet to beat Stuyven - 3pts at 9/10

Van Aert to beat Trentin - 2pts at 11/8 

Vanmarcke to beat Naesen - 1.6pts at 11/8

Keukeleire to beat Doull and Pedersen to beat EBH - 1pt at 11/8

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for those of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games. With the Zweeler cycling games you can play for cash prizes!

Starting this weekend is the Fantasy Spring CyClassics competition with a prize pool of €6,500!

Enter your team now using the links below!

Here's my ten to watch for the Omloop Het Niewsblad

1 Greg Van Avermaet

2 Wout Van Aert

3 Sep Vanmarcke

4 Zdenek Stybar

5 Oliver Naesen

6 Philippe Gilbert

7 Nils Politt

8 Mads Pedersen

9 Nikki Terpstra

10 Michael Valgren

Sign up with Zweeler Fantasy Cycling games today to play the Fantasy Spring CyClassics game, there's at least €10,000 in prizes to be won, with a first prize of €2,500! If you sign up here you can receive a 100% deposit bonus up to €100! Click here to read more.

https://twitter.com/RichieMcCormack/status/1233693610626945024