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Published on Wednesday, 22 February 2017 18:13

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad

Saturday 25th February 2017, 198.3kms

You wait months for some decent European one-day races and then two come along at once.. The Omloop, in some people's eyes kicks off the cycling season proper, heralding the start of the upcoming Spring Classics, and is followed the very next day by Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne. 

This race used to be known as the 'Het Volk' back in the day, but is now called the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad after the Het Nieuwsblad, a Belgian newspaper that is a geat supporter of racing in the Flanders heartland. Both races are hors d'ouevres to the cobbled classics to come, with lots of cobbles and climbs. Although a lot of riders choose to ride in both races, Saturday's Omloop is usually more suited to the punchier, stronger Classics men, whereas Sunday's KBK is usually one for the sprinters. 

This is always a race where you have to watch the weather forecast carefully. If there is a danger the cobbled sections will be too dangerous, they change the route. In 2004 the course was deemed to be too dangerous and the race was cancelled entirely. In 2014 the race was nearly lost but went ahead, the Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne on the Sunday didn't. 

The forecast for this Saturday isn't great, but it could be a lot worse. There's going to be scattered showers all day, and the temperature actually drops as the day goes on, from around 11 to 9 by the time they finish in Ghent. There will be a south-westerly wind of 14-15mph all day, which will mean they'll have a head-wind mostly on the way down towards Ronse, but a tail-wind from almost all of the last 50kms on the way back, which is the opposite to last year when they had a head-wind on the way home.

There is a small section with less than 20kms to go when they will tackle the final cobbled section at Lange Munte in to a head-wind, but after that it's more or less a tail-wind all the way home. That should help any breakaway candidates to stave off the remains of the peloton and we could see a small group who have broken clear on the key sections with around 50kms to go hold on for victory again. 

But of course, given the nature of the course and the terrain, with the way the roads wind back and forth and around in so many different directions in the crucial second half of the race, there will be plenty of opportunities to split things in the cross-winds. 

2016 saw yet another spectacular race, with Luke Rowe kicking things off on the Taainberg (above) and the small group he took with him, that included Greg Van Avermaet and Tiejs Benoot were soon joined by Peter Sagan who bridged across on his own. Soon the break that was up the road all day disintegrated, and as the Sagan group caught the last of them up the road, only Alexis Gougeard of AG2R was able to stay with them, eventually landing a superb 5th place. 

Van Avermaet went early in the sprint with 200m to go and got the jump on Sagan and Benoot who fought for his wheel. The gap he got was enough to hang on and Sagan just couldn't come around him. It signalled the start of an excellent year for Van Avermaet which saw him notch a string of top 6 placings, including wins on the stage to Le Lioran in the TDF and the Olympic Road Race title. 

It doesn't attract as many sprinters as Sunday's Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, naturally given that it's a much tougher course over 13 hills and 18kms of cobbles, it's more one for the Flandrian hard-men. The KBK on Sunday has attracted a quality lineup of sprinters though, with Sagan, Groenewegen, Coquard, Kristoff, Démare, Boonen, Debusschere and Bennett. 

The Route

The route is again quite similar to last year's course, leaving Ghent and heading south. They hit the first cobbled stretch of the race at the Haaghoek 5kms sooner than last year after 51kms in that little figure of eight section in the black square in the map below (2kms long). They then head out on the green circuit to the east and after 54kms they hit the first Helingen at the Leberg (950m at 4.2%)

After the Leberg they hit five climbs in the next 44kms, including the Berendries (940m at 7%) and like last year they again tackle the Mur de Geraardsbergen, or the Muur-Kappelmuur (750m at 9%) after 81kms. Again, it is too far out to cause any real problems though.

With 91kms to go they go back over the Haaghoek for a second and more decisive time, scene of a push by Vandenbergh in 2015. It's down in the south-west corner that things start to heat up though as they head towards Ronse and take in a number of climbs that feature in the Ronde Van Vlanderen. First up the Kruisberg that rises up out of the town of Ronse, on a dark and rough cobbled stretch after 134kms (1.8km at 4.8%). As they come off the cobbles at the top the road still rises so it's an opportunity for the strong guys at the front to really put the hammer down and stretch things and make another selection.  

The helingen and cobbles come thick and fast then over the next 50kms or so and it's the repeated assault of hills and cobbles that breaks the race up and gives the stonger guys the opportunities to whittle down the peloton. With 64kms to go they hit the Donderij, a longish, but pretty smooth stretch of cobbles before they then tackle the Taaienberg (530m at 6.6%) just 5kms later. One of the hardest cobbled sections of the race and previously the scene of an inevitable attack from Tom Boonen, as it is one of his favourite climbs. Last year though there was no sign of him and it was Luke Rowe instead who threw the grenades.

Two more hills of the Eikenberg (1.2kms at 5.2%) and the Wolvenberg (645m at 7.9%) before three sections of cobbles in just 2.7kms, the Ruiterstraat, Karel Martelstraat and the Holleweg. The Leberg climb is crossed for a second time on the way back north with 41kms to go, followed by the Paddestraat which was also used last year at a similar point in the race. With just 20kms to go there's the final cobbled section of the race, the Lange Munte, also the last cobbled section last year before they start the run for home This is where the remains of the original break were dropped by GVA, Sagan, Bennot, Rowe and Gougeard as the pace lifted to 'full gas'.

The run in to the finish is pretty straightforward as they race through the outskirts of Gent and the finish is the same as last year, climbing up for the last 300m to the line on the Emile Clauslaan street. It gives the punchier guys like GVA and Sagan an advantage should it come down to a small sprint again. 

Contenders and Favourites

A stellar lineup again for this race, with a mixture of riders coming back from riding Down Under, in the middle east, Andalucia and the Algarve, all eager to get racing in the season 'proper'. It's three weeks to Milan San Remo and five to the Tour of Flanders, so it starts getting serious as of this weekend. 200 riders in 25 teams, there are five former winners of the race starting with Ian Stannard (x2), Philippe Gilbert (x2), Greg Van Avermaet, Sep Vanmarcke and Sebastian Langeveld. Tom Boonen starts his 15th Omloop, Matthew Hayman his 13th and Philippe Gilbert his 11th.

Of course you have to start with reigning champion Greg Van Avermaet as he has a huge chance again this year of featuring at the finish of this race. He was excellent last year, matching Luke Rowe's surge and powering the break along to the finish to help hold off the chasers. And his finishing kick was super strong, going a little early and catching Sagan on the back foot. You have to wonder though will he get away with such a move a second time with someone like Sagan.

He followed up his win here last year with 6th in Strade Bianche, 5th in Milan San Remo, but crashed out of the Tour of Flanders when one of the hot favourites, breaking his collarbone in the process. He was active in Valenciana a few weeks ago and took a 3rd place in the 4th stage in Oman last week, but he disappointed as favourite on more than one occassion in Oman, seemingly working for Hermans instead. That worked out for them in the end of course, and clearly it was the right plan given that Hermans took home the GC.

That was good training for this weekend and he will be in a completely different mindset taking to the startline on Saturday. He has of course a strong squad with him again, including Daniel Oss who helped string things out and tee him up for the move on the Taaienberg last year, Stefan Kung, Floris Gerts, Jempy Drucker and Martin Elmiger. If a break goes on the Taaienberg, or shortly after it, expect him to be in it. If they go to the finish in a small group, expect him to be challenging for victory. 

Peter Sagan is his biggest rival of course, not much more we can say about Peter Sagan, he's one of the most complete riders of this, and perhaps any generation. It was quite a shock to see GVA beat him in a sprint last year, he fell asleep for a second and it was all over. Brilliant winner of Tour of Flanders shortly after, he simply rode away from all his rivals in an awesome display of strength. Three second places in the TDU a month ago, he showed that his winter training has gone well. 

He posted a video from Bora's training camp in Sierra Nevada this week saying how he was bored and just wanted the racing to start., you and us both Peter! He looked relaxed,healthy and up for it and is going to be a key protagonist again here on Saturday (and possibly even Sunday). He wouldn't have a great team here with him at all, especially say compared to BMC or Quickstep, but that has never stopped him before when he was riding in mediocre Tinkoff Classics teams. Again, like GVA, if there's an attack goes, he'll either be an instigator, or will try to join it. He's only 7/2 though, which doesn't offer much value, but he does look the most likely winner. 

Can Tom Boonen roll back the years in his final few races as a professional? 15 starts - two 2nds, two 3rds and a 5th, his last top 3 was the 2nd place in 2012. 11th last year, part of the first big chase group that came home just 9" behind the leaders, he missed out, uncharacteristically on the move that came on Tom's Taaienberg, normally the place that he dishes out the punishment. 

He has started the season well enough, with a win, a 2nd and a 6th in San Juan, but he was off the pace in Oman last week, the early crash on stage 1 probably didn't help him and he may well have just decided to roll around and stay out of trouble for the rest of the race, with the last few races of his career just around the corner. Quickstep have of course got a super-strong looking squad on paper, with a number of riders on that team who could be potential winners.

It's the first time we'll see Gilbert and Boonen racing in the Quick-Step colours - Gilbert did Valenciana and Boonen did Oman, and it will be interesting to see how that goes. Philippe Gilbert would be a strong candidate in any other team, will he put all personal ambitions aside for Boonen's chances? It may come down to how it goes 'on the road'.. if Gilbert makes the move on say, the Taaienberg, but Boonen misses it, then Quickstep probably won't chase, letting others do the work to give them an easy ride to the line in case they do pull them back. Gilbert was active in Valenciana, finishing no lower than 27th in the stages and 15th overall in the GC.

Gilbert has won this race twice, in 2006 & 2008, but DNF'ed last year following a heavy crash that injured his back. The year before though he came home on his own in 8th place, 20" ahead of the main pack. You would expect team loyalties to go to Boonen here, with Gilbert getting the nod in the Ardennes Classics, but he can still be a key protagonist, attacking aggressively and getting all their rivals worked up. He looks big at 40/1 if he manages to get in to the front group.

Quick-Step also have outside chances with the likes of Iljo Keise, Yves Lampaert, Zdenek Stybar, Matteo Trentin, Nikki Terpstra and Julian Vermote, Terpstra and Keise can go hard on the cobbled sections, Lampaert and Stybar on the hellingen, looking to break up the race and shake off anyone under pressure. Terpstra in particular would have a good chance in this race again, he has finished 2nd, 5th, 6th and 9th over the years, has won Paris-Roubaix and Dwars Door Vlanderen twice (a race run over many of these hills like the Taaienberg and Leberg). A master on the cobbles, supremely strong and very experienced, it's little wonder he is just 14/1 despite the fact that Boonen is their main man here. 

Zdenek Stybar would have an outside chance too of a victory here, the uphill finish would suit him, but I think it would take a twist of faith for him to be their best hope coming to the finish. They have some making up to do for last year, failing to put a single rider in the top 10.

Team Sky come here with a strong squad too, with double former winner Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe leading their chances. Stannard knows what it takes to win this race and is ideally suited to it, his mixture of experience, intelligence and sheer, raw power gets him in the important moves that often make hit. His defeat of the three Quickstep guys (including Boonen) in the 2015 version was one of the greatest individual performances you are likely to see in a race like this. I think the rest of the Sky squad lacks strength though so we may just see these two at the business end of the race. 

Ian Stannard already has a win under his belt, with a trademark power-house attack in the last 2kms of a stage in the Herald Sun Tour, denying what would have been Aqua-Blue Sports first win for Aaron Gate, casually rolling across the line as the break snapped at his heels. He didn't race it last year, but will be back to try to make it a hat-trick of wins on Saturday, joining an elite club of three riders who have claimed three wins (Van Petegem, Bruyére and Sterckx). Prior to his two wins though his performances here were pretty average, which Stannard will we see Sunday? I can't see him making an elite group with the likes of Sagan and GVA though. 

A man who might though, is Luke Rowe. Not a rider you'd expect to excel on the cobbled hellingen of Flanders, but he has been 11th, 9th and 4th in the last three years, as well as finishing 27th in the Espoirs (U23) version of this race in 2011. He has explosive short-range power and strength, ideal for the 500-1000m long climbs they have to do here, so is able to instigate/cover key attacks. I think he will be involved in the big move again on Saturday, but fear that he will be out-gunned at the finish again like last year if against the likes of Sags and GVA. 3rd to 10th is definitely possible though. 

A race over the cobbles in Belgium wouldn't be the same without a Lotto-Soudal rider in the mix and they have several riders in with chances this year. Top of the list for them is Tiesj Benoot, after his superb 3rd last year in only his 2nd attempt at the senior race (was 36th in 2015), but he also has taken part in the Espoirs version in 2014 when just 19 and finished 28th. Born in Ghent, these are his roads, and he has a massive fan club in Ghent, many of the number being students at the Ghent University, where Benoot studies Economics. 

He has the power and the skills to negotiate the cobbled hills, years of training on these roads means he knows every square inch. He's also started the year brightly with two 8ths and a 3rd place in the Mallorca races, and a very fine 3rd place in the final stage of the Vuelta ao Algarve to help him to 8th in the GC and 1st in the Youth classification. He looks ready for this and is sure to be a protagonist again. 

Lotto-S also have Jelle Wallays, Jurgen Roelandts, Jens Debusschere, Nicolas Maes and Jasper de Buyst, Jens Debusschere would have a big chance if he were able to infiltrate a group that fights out the finish, Jurgen Roelandts if it becomes a bit of a free-for-all and he gets away in a surprise group of non-favourites. They also are starting with young Brit James Callum Shaw, who has finished 5th in the U23 Liege-Bastogne-Liege last year, when just 19, and two years before that he won the Junior Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne when only a first-year junior at 17. He looks an all-rounder of exceptional power and although we might not see him at the business end this Sunday, we may well do in the years to come. 

Alexander Kristoff is short in the betting at 16/1 for a guy whose best result is only 11th in this race, and that 11th came in 2015 when he was outsprinted by Luke Rowe in the pack that came in almost five minutes down on Ian Stannard. Prior to that his four finishes in the race have been closer to last than first, he's not had much in the race. But that doesn't mean he can't handle the parcours or the cobbles, he won the Tour of Flanders in 2015 after all.

His 101st place in last year's race doesn't tell the story of his race though, he was crashed in to from behind by someone and his wheel was destroyed. He had to wait quite a while for a wheel change, and even after he got going he was held up behind a crash and his race was definitely over.  

He has started the season in great form, with four wins already and two 2nd places, but significantly, it was his 53rd place, only just over a minute down on the hill to Quriyat, followed by his win over the lumpy course to the Ministry of Tourism in Oman that suggests he is in very good condition indeed, and maybe he's a bit lighter than he has been in previous years? Maybe the missing ingredient required to help him get to the finish this year with the leaders is the addition of Tony Martin to the squad. The German machine can possibly help tow him back if he misses the splits around the Taaienberg area, we know he will bury himself in his services, as long as he doesn't crash like last year.. 

He also has the services of two Belgians in Baptistse Planckaert and Jenthe Biermans (Biermans is only 21, but winner of the 2013 Ronde Van Vlaanderen Juniors) and he also has Kuznetsov, Morkov, Bystrom and Hollenstien to call on for help. Could this finally be his year to get the win? I think he looks to have a good chance of making the select group this year, but how will he fare in the uphill sprint against the likes of Sagan and GVA? That will be interesting.. 

Cannondale-Drapac now have a lively contender here too with the re-introduction of Sep Vanmarcke to their squad for 2017. A record here of 1st (2012), 4th (2014) and 5th (2015) shows how well he goes on the course. The 2012 win was when he was in his previous life at Garmin, outsprinting Tom Boonen and Juan Antonio Flecha at the finish, no mean feat.. The 2015 5th saw him come home the best of the rest behind the Stannard/Quickstep 3 alongside Greg Van Avermaet, in 2014 he was outdone by EBH in the sprint for 3rd behind Stannard and GVA. 

He has been unlucky/inattentive in missing the key moves a few times, so he needs to be on his toes this year again to try to be involved at the finish. Cannondale have a strong squad out here too with former winner Sebastian Langeveld, Dylan Van Baarle, Taylor Phinney, Tom Van Asbroeck, Tom Scully and Paddy Bevin. We'll probably see at least one of them up the road in the break, with my money on it being Taylor Phinney, but the rest will be tasked with keeping Sep out of trouble and at the front coming to the key sectors. He has sounded confident this week of doing a big ride..

Trek Segafredo have two outside candidates in Jasper Stuyven and Edward Theuns. Jasper Stuyven will have to decide whether he wants to go full gas in Saturday's Omloop, or try to pull off an unlikely repeat victory in Sunday's KBK. It will be very hard for him to pull off the double in KBK, he caught them napping last year and they under-estimated his power as he drove on to the finish, leaving the sprinters to fight it out for 2nd. It drew admiration from Cancellara and comparisons to Cancellara from many fans, but he won't get that freedom a second year running in KBK.

Instead maybe he should focus on this race this year, he just missed the main move last year and tried in vain to bridge across, eventually crashing on a corner. He was able to join the chase group though and came home an admirable 9th place, just one spot behind his team-mate Edward Thuens.A former Junior World Champion in 2009 and winner of the Junior Paris-Roubaix in 2010, he has the power and the ability to feature in this race and now has a few seasons under his belt as a pro with Trek he should be ready to take a step up here to the sort of level Benoot is operating at.

Edward Theuns finished 8th in this last year and 8th in KBK the next day, showing his versatility, skill and power as an all-rounder.   3rd in Dwaars Door Vlanderen, 4th in Scheldeprijs and a stage win in the Belgium Tour, it was a solid year for the young Belgian, that is, until his season was ended by a freak crash in the TT in the TDF. It followed his break-through year with Topsport Vlaandered in 2015 that earned him his contract with Trek. He seems to me like a rider that might go better on Sunday in KBK though, so I'm not tempted to have a go at 40/1.

AG2R aren't a team you would normally associate with the northern Classics, but they have a pretty decent team here this year. Stijn Vandenbergh has joined them this year, a man very familiar with the roads and cobbles of Belgium. 2nd in 2013, 4th in 2015 in this race, 4th in the RVV in 2014, he has the power and experience to make a lot of the key moves in races like this. Alexis Gougeard is still only 23 but looks like a quality rider in the making. 2nd in the Paris-Roubaix juniors in 2011 (behind Florian Senechal), he was 5th in this race last year after hanging on from the original break. He's got a lot of DNFs against his name though in races like this, so he can be quite hit and miss.

They also have Gediminas Bagdonas who could be a break candidate and another rider I want to have a small bet on, Oliver Naesen. Naesen is from Ghent and know these roads intimately.. He said last year about this race "“I live less than 40 minutes from Ghent where I went to school. I train every day on these roads. At Nieuwsblad, I finished 18th in my first participation in 2015. This time I would like to finish in the top-10. It is important to know how to conserve your resources, but also always to be present near the front between the 130th and 180th kilometer. After that, it is all a mental game because everyone is burnt."

Well, he almost pulled off the top 10 last year, finishing 13th, coming home in the group led by Debusschere just 9" down. He was 150/1 last year, no such odds this year, he's just 33/1 with Bet365, but 36/1 with Will Hill. If you get bigger, take it, but 36/1 looks as good as we are likely to get.

Two sprinters who might have a chance of coming to the finish with the lead group are Dylan Groenewegen and Arnaud Démare. Dylan Groenewegen didn't do this race last year, but finished 4th in KBK on the Sunday and 6th in Le Samyn a few days later, so he knows how to handle himself on the cobbles and hills of Belgium. Whether he will be able to deal with the relentless pace over all the hills and cobbles of OHN is another matter. He has started this year very well, with two seconds in Dubai and a 3rd and a 4th in the Algarve. He's 40/1 but I think he'll be better off saving his energy for Sunday, even if he's supported by strong guys like Lars Boom and Bram Tankink. 

Arnaud Démare leads a weak-looking FDJ squad, but has finished 10th twice in this race in 2014 and 2015. He has also finished 12th in Paris-Roubaix and has been unlucky a few times on the cobbles, but like Groenewegen, I think it will take something strange to happen in the race for him to be involved in the finish. Cofidis have a few outsiders in Florian Senechal and Dimitri Claeys, one of these days Senechal is going to pull off a big result, as long as he's 200/1 I'm going to keep having a few quid on him.. Dimitri Claeys twice won this race for the 'Espoirs' in 2013 and 2014, he could be a real dark horse here too that can hide away and sit on the coat-tails of the bigger teams, worth a few pennies at 125/1.

There are just so many in with chances in this race, and I haven't even mentioned any of the Orica-Scott (watch for Matthew Hayman and Jens Keukeleire), Astana (watch for Laurens de Vreese and Michael Valgren), Sunweb (Watch for Bert de Backer and Zico Waeytens, a local boy), Bahrain Merida, Roompot etc. Team AquaBlue make their debut in a proper northern European race, in the same week it was announced they have been invited to LBL and La Fleche Wallone. Conor Dunne is a likely candidate for the break of the day, and if they build up enough of a lead he could possibly do a Gougeard and hang on to the coat-tails of the leaders that come up. Watch out for Aaron Gate and Leigh Howard too. 

Conclusion:

If you've stuck with me until now, well done, almost there.. If you jumped down to here just for the picks, shame on you!

This is a wickedly hard race to call.. Just so many in with chances. Yet it probably will come down to either Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet and maybe four to six other guys kicking things off and forming the winning move. Or it could be wide open and we have 20 or more come to the last 20kms and it could be just a major free-for-all. The weather will play a part - it's not going to be as wet maybe as was first feared, but there will be showers. Showers mean more crashes on the cobbles. The wind is going to blow and that is going to cause problems, we could see the race break up earlier than usual, that is, earlier than the Taaienberg with just 59kms to go.   

But they will have a tail-wind on the way home, so there will be a major chase between leaders and the pack, they almost caught the leaders last year.. Everyone knows the key points, everyone will try to be near the front, but who can make it? Sagan will probably be the key man and is a strong shout for the win, or at the very least a podium, But he will be vulnerable to multiple attacks should a few riders from strong teams like Quickstep or AG2R make the front group, or if rival collaborate against Sagan.

Van Avermaet may well win that uphill sprint again, it suits him far more than most. And Tiesj Benoot and Luke Rowe may be in the mix too, but won't have the sprint to win it. Notable others I want to have onside are Oli Naesen at 36/1 with William Hill and Sep Vanmarcke at 16/1 with Skybet, SVM is due a rub of the green and he could be one to attack on the Lange Munte on the way home to take his second victory in this race. I'm going to rule out most of the sprinter types in this race.. all except Tom Boonen.. I think he will be better positioned this year, he will make sure he's in the right place, with team-mates nearby, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3 team-mates with him if he makes the front group. It's his last chance in this race, I hope he goes out with all guns blazing. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Tom Boonen at 12/1 with various

0.75pts each-way on Sep Vanmarcke at 16/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Oliver Naesen at 36/1 with Will Hill

0.2pts each-way on Florian Senechal at 200/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Dimitri Claeys at 125/1 with Bet365

Match Bets 

Kristoff to beat Démare - 2pts at 4/6

Van Avermaet to beat Benoot, Rowe to beat Stannard, Vandenbergh to beat Martin - 2pts at 2.32/1

Gilbert to beat Moscon - 3pt at evens.. I don't understand why Moscon is odds-on to beat Gilbert, unless they think Gilbert will work hard early and blow up and roll in later, but same could be said about Moscon who might be working for Rowe & Stannard..  

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Here's my ten to watch for the Omloop Het Niewsblad

1 Greg Van Avermaet

2 Tjies Benoot

3 Nicki Terpstra

4 Peter Sagan

5 Oliver Naesen

6 Tom Boonen

7 Dimitri Claeys

8 Sep Vanmarcke

9 Jasper Stuyven

10 Luke Rowe

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