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Published on Tuesday, 24 February 2015 00:13

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad

Gent to Gent

Saturday 28th February 2015, 200.2kms

The 70th running of the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad signals the start of the season proper for many. The first taste of the mud and the cobbles of Belgium and for some the first races in the cold and wet following a month in the sun of the middle-east. The Omloop can be run in brutally harsh conditions compared to the 40° heat of Qatar or Oman, and the riders often face snow and icy conditions.

The organisers watch the weather forecast carefully and if there is a danger the cobbled sections will be too dangerous they change the route. In 2004 the course was deemed to be too dangerous and the race was cancelled entirely. Last year's running was nearly lost but went ahead, the Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne which was on the next day wasn't so lucky.

And even when the race does run the cold affects the outcome - last year, my 16/1 headline pick Greg Van Avermaet got in the race winning break with Ian Stannard, a two-up sprint he should have easily taken..  But he was so cold that his body just couldn't react when Stannard started sprinting and he lost what should have been his first big win. 

Van Avermaet has of course had a great start to the season and seems to be in really good condition again - he has been installed as the 5/1 favourite which seems quite short given the quality of the field that is taking to the start line on Saturday. 

The forecast is for it to be cloudy and cold - around 8°, but there is also the possibility of rain. It is forecast to rain on Friday and Sunday and some of the pictures of the recce rides this week on the course has shown it to be wet and miserable. I'm sure the riders would be pretty pleased if it stayed dry, this race is hard enough without the horrible conditions they faced last year. The wind is going to pick up by the weekend too but as they go in al sorts of directions it will be coming at them from all angles all day. They will have a tail win on the run to the finish though and that might help a break stay away. 

The Route

The route is a similar pattern to last year, leaving Ghent and heading south but it's 59kms before they hit the first cobbles of the day at the Haaghoek and 62kms until they hit the first Helingen at the Leberg. The route is slightly different to last year in the opening sector, but as they wind their way down to the furthest south eastern part of the course they tackle the iconic Mur de Geraardsbergen, a climb that used to be a major feature of the Tour of Flanders. But as it comes with 120kms to go it doesn't play a huge part in deciding the race, but can make the first selection if the stronger teams want to get rid of some of the weaker links. 

But it's down in the south-west corner that things start to heat up as they head towards Ronse and take in a number of climbs that feature in the Ronde. First up the Kruisberg that rises up out of the town of Ronse, on a dark and rough cobbled stretch. I rode it last year and It's not the worst strip of cobbles but is still pretty rough and is steep in parts, hitting 9% in sections. As they come off the cobbles at the top the road still rises so it's an opportunity for the strong guys at the front to really put the hammer down and stretch things and make another selection. From the Kruisberg onwards the route is the same as last year. 

The helingen and cobbles come thick and fast then over the next 50kms or so and it's the repeated assault of helingen and cobbled sections that breaks the race up and gives the stonger guys the opportunities to whittle down the peloton. With 61kms to go they tackle Tom's Taaienberg.. One of the hardest cobbled sections of the race and an almost guaranteed point of attack for Tom Boonen, as it is one of his favourite climbs. I say attack, but it's more than likely he will just go to the front and put the hammer down to make the first big selection of the day. Expect all the E-QS boys to be stuck to his wheel, along with the other favourites of BMC, Katusha, Sky and Lotto-NL Jumbo.

The three sections of cobbles between the 170 and 180km mark are a great opportunity to try to get away, there's only 21km to go once past the last one. The race winning move came just after the last section of cobbles last year as all the riders were on the limit and the cannier riders Stannard and Van Avermaet took advantage of a slight lull to attack on the flat. The run in to the finish is pretty straightforward and the finish is a long straight but slightly uphill should it come down to a sprint finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

Paddy Power were the first bookie out with their prices on Wednesday afternoon and they installed last year's runner up Greg Van Avermaet and man-of-the-moment Alexander Kristoff as the joint 5/1 favourites. There's not a lot of value you'd have to say in 5/1 Van Avermaet, but he is sure to be a key player in this race again. He has had a very solid start to the season with some good showings in Qatar and Oman, including taking 5th overall in Qatar. One of the criticisms that were directed at GVA last year was that his sprint cost him the win in Omloop and other races. I felt a little like him in this photo (right) after the finish, I was certain he'd win it for about the last 15kms.

He has apparently been working hard on his sprint over the winter and that seemed to be evident in stage 2 at Qatar when he outsprinted the likes of Sagan, Boonen, Haussler and Blythe to take 3rd place. And in Oman, he came very close to winning stage 2 again, leading up the finishing straight and only just being passed by Cancellara and Valverde. Depending on how the race pans out, and he is sure to be an instigator, then he has a great chance again to feature in the decisive move. He has been told he has to be more of a 'bastard' in his races as he has had a tendency to just race on instinct and waste energy by doing too much work. We'll see if it's a different kind of Van Avermaet we see on Saturday. Other bookies have now opened on Thursday evening and there are some better prices out there now, Ladbrokes at 8/1 is a tempting each-way bet now. 

Alexander Kristoff is of course in great shape at the moment. Only Mark Cavendish has won as many races as him this year, four, and he has bossed a number of different types of sprints in different terrain. Although he has been winning races in the scorching heat of the middle-east, he showed in Milan-San-Remo last year that he has no problems with the wet and cold and if he manages to stay in with the leaders as they head towards the finish then he has to be considered the favourite to win the race. The one worrying factor for Kristoff is that his team looks weak. Luca Paolini looks like he will miss the race and he is a huge loss to Kristoff - remember the pull Kristoff took at the front in MSR last year? That's what he might need with the likes of E-QS and BMC sure to be mob-handed at the finish. Another thing to remember is that he is scheduled to ride in the KBK the next day, and if things are going against him or he misses the big move, he may save his legs for Sunday. 5/1 was pretty short too, but he is now available at 13/2 with Boyles and Laddies if you think it will break a 6-year pattern and finish in a bunch sprint.

Niki Terpstra repeated his feat in Qatar by winning the GC with a superb show of strength by the team and individual strength by him in the TT. He was very strong in the cobbled races last year of course, taking victory in Paris-Roubaix. Last year he missed out on the winning move, but was in the chasing trio that fought it out for the 3rd step on the podium, along with Edvald Boasson Hagen and Sep Vanmarcke. He opened at 18/1 I think but that didn't last long. When I looked he was 10/1 and I thought that was worth a bet each-way, I think he is bound to be in he final, decisive move and so should have a good chance of a top 3 finish. He will need to shake off the likes of Kristoff though as he won't win that sprint, he'll probably have to come to the finish in a very small selection or solo. He is 12/1 with Ladbrokes now though, that should be backed I think. 

Sep Vanmarcke was very consistent in the cobbled classics last year, 4th in Omloop, 3rd in KBK, 4th in Gent Wevelgem, 3rd in the RVV and 4th in Paris-Roubaix. He was consistent, but just couldn't win. He is a former winner of this race though, outsprinting Boonen and Flecha in a 3-way sprint in 2012. Since then he has won just one race and I think it could be the same for the Lotto-NL Jumbo man again this year, top 5, but I don't think he'll win it. At least he'll be easy to see in that bright yellow kit! Interestingly though Bet365 and Ladbrokes make him their favourite, Ladbrokes as low as 9/2. He did say that he has the confidence to win it following a recce ride today. 

If for some reason Terpstra doesn't fire on Saturday, E-QS have two excellent back-up plans in Zdenek Stybar and Tom Boonen. Stybar has had a relatively light start to the season compared to those who headed to the middle-east. It may have been light, but it has been a very solid start to the year - 3rd in his first race of the season in Murcia, flying up the hill with Mollema and nearly hitting the car parked on the finish line. He also did well in the Volta ao Algarve over hilly terrain, finishing 11th overall, with a 5th and a 7th place finish on two stages. The former mountain biker is well at home of the bumpy slippy roads of Belgium. He worked for Terpstra and Boonen last year in this race and came home 3'46" down in 29th place. 7th in Milan-San-Remo and 5th in Paris Roubaix, he has the power to feature, but may be forced to work for his team leaders again. For that reason I'll pass on the very short 10/1.

We all know Tom Boonen's power and skill in races like these and if it comes down to a select, small bunch coming to the finish tomorrow of 10-15 riders, he would be a strong candidate for the sprint victory. That is as long as Kristoff isn't there or he'll be fighting for 2nd place.. again, 10/1 is a bit short. It's a bit odd that Paddy Power gives all three about the same chance of winning, surely team orders will dictate that one or two of them will have to sacrifice their chances for their team leader on the day. In fact he is now even shorter with the likes of Bet365 at just 7/1, not for me.. 

Ian Stannard is just 12/1 with PP and again this is a ridiculously short price. Ok, he won last year at a price of 33/1 or something like that, but I can't see lightning striking twice here. He will not be let go by the likes of Vanmarcke and Terpstra this year, so he may have to settle for a top 10 finish. He thinks he can win it again, but I don't, even at the far bigger 20/1 with Ladbrokes. Also, there is the added complication to the situation of Bradley Wiggins choosing to ride the Omloop as a prep for the Paris-Roubaix that he wants to win in April.. Will Stannard be working for him or vice-versa? I suppose we'll only know in the last 50kms if Wiggins is still prominent and looking to put in a big finish to the day. Even at 50/1 though I can't see Wiggo even being in the top 10.

Sky also have Luke Rowe, who could actually be a better option than Stannard, if they decide to work for him - if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint, at least he has a half decent sprint on him to give them a chance. He's not a great price at 20/1 at the moment (looks like others might be thinking the same about him.) but watch to see if you can get 40/1 or bigger on him, he might be worth a go each-way. (He is 66/1 with Ladbrokes, that might be your Sky bet if you are a Skybot for Saturday!)

One I liked the look of at the prices when they came out was Jean-Pierre Drucker of BMC. Jempy, as he is known, had some excellent results last year while riding for Pro-Continental team Wanty-Group Gobert, including 6th in the Omloop, leading home the chasers. He also took 4th in the Dwars Door Vlaanderen, 5th in Paris-Bourges and a whole host of top 10 placings across the season. This got him a contract with BMC and he has started the season solidly but not spectacularly. He may be asked to look after and work for GVA, but if anything happens GVA, or if the team decides to play a two-prong attack, he could find himself up the road in a little group while the favourites watch GVA and each other. He was 40/1 and I thought that was worth an interest but was limited to 0.4pts each-way and then they cut him to 25/1! He may be a bigger price with other bookies when they open, watch out for that. (In fact when Ladbrokes opened today they went 125/1 and I just had to have a little bit more at that price, that was ridiculously big! He has been cut to 80s now, but even that is still twice the price I thought he was worth a bet at!

Jurgen Roelandts has promised a lot over the years but hasn't really delivered as much as he should have, some good results like 3rd in the 2013 RVV but generally he has been pretty average. He doesn't even appear to be a confirmed runner yet, so the 20/1 with PP has to be avoided for now. (In fact he has tweeted Thurs afternoon to say he has the flu and will not be riding..)

There are lots of other riders who could well be involved of course as this is a seriously talented startlist and with a race like this, luck can play a big part in how your race goes. Heinrich Haussler was not supposed to be doing this race, but lines up as Saramontins is ill. He is part of a pretty decent looking IAM squad with Brandle, Devenyns and Chavanel. Haussler has been in excellent form this year already and has good form in this race too, taking 8th in 2009, 2nd in 2010 to Flecha (won the bunch sprint) and 4th in 2012. The 50/1 with Bet365 looks interesting, he's only 28s with Laddies. 

Sylvain Chavanel is starting to come in to form at just the right time and rode very well to land the place money for me at 100/1 last Sunday in the final stage at Andalucia. He finished 8th here in 2012 and loves a battle. At 40/1 he's just about tempting, but he'll have his work cut out to cope with the Etixx and BMC boys.. 

Stijn Vandenbergh, Philippe Gilbert, Eddie Boasson Hagen, Matteo Trentin, they could all go well although they might all find themselves working for team leaders. Pim Ligthart has been riding really well and climbing well and could be in with a shout at a big looking 100/1, he should be the team leader on the day the others will work for you'd think to give him a shot at the sprint win. 

Others at big prices that could go well? Matthieu Ladagnous is an old favourite of ours after meeting him in France a few years ago.. A very tall rider at over 6ft, I remember he had really cool S-Works shoes with Ladagnous down the side of them.. I have a picture somewhere, I'll try to dig it out! He has been riding well of late with two really good rides in the Tour du Haut Var, taking an 8th and a 4th place over very lumpy terrain. He finished 8th here in 2012 and a rider who has finished 6th in Gent Wevelgem and 5th in the Ronde Van Vlaanderen should not be 100/1. Watch out also for Yohann Offredo, Marcus Burghardt, Van Asbroeck and Oscar Gatto at big prices. 

It's really hard to pick any rider with real confidence - luck, the weather, team orders and many other factors can dictate the outcome of a race at this point in the season. I think though that Greg Van Avermaet and Niki Terpstra have great prospects for a top 3 finish and should be backed each-way. Jempy Drucker, Pim Ligthart and Matthieu Ladagnous give us some big priced runners for a bit of fun too. 

Recommendations:

 0.4pts each-way at 40/1 on Jempy Drucker with PP, 0.3pts each-way at 125/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Niki Terpstra at 10/1 with PP (take the 12/1 with Laddies, or 11/1 with four places with Boylesports)

1pt each-way at 8/1 on GVA with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Matthieu Ladagnous at 100/1 with Boylesports

0.2pts each-way on Pim Ligthart at 100/1 with Bet365 

Match Bets 

Jempy Drucker to beat Luke Rowe - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Terpstra to beat Gilbert - 2pts at 8/13

Matthieu Ladagnous to beat Yohann Offredo - 2pts at 5/6

1pt on the treble at 4.1/1 with Bet365