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Published on Saturday, 28 February 2015 21:13

Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

Sunday 1st March 2015, 197kms

The second leg of the Belgian Cobbled weekend of cycling takes place on Sunday with Kuurne-Brussells-Kuurne. Whereas the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is one for the pure Classics specialists, KBK is one for the sprinters traditionally.

A sore throat takes André Greipel out of the race, but there are still a lot of quality sprinters present to do battle Sunday afternoon. 

Many riders take part in both races, some working for team-mates Saturday who repay the favour on the Sunday and vice-versa. Some only do one, the sprinters don't like Saturday's race. And others just do Saturday and don't make it to Sunday's race if they end up kissing the Flanders mud on slippy cobbles! A lot of the roads used in the Omloop on Saturday (and in the Tour of Flanders) are used again on Sunday, such  as the Kruisberg and the Oude Kwaremont, but the big difference is that the final Hellingen, the Nokereberg, comes 53km from the finish, meaning it ends up in a sprint finish more often than not. 

Last year Omega Pharma made a mess of Omloop, where despite having the strongest team in the race the best they could manage was 5th place with Niki Terpstra. Patrick Lefevre and the OPQS management gave them a bollicking after. They then went out and destroyed the field with over 50kms to go, taking a small group of just 10 riders off the front and by the time they got over the Nokereberg they had an unassailable lead. Of the 10 that went away, 5 of them were OPQS men - Boonen, Trentin, Vandenbergh, Maes, Van Keirsbulck and the 10 worked well together to take it to a sprint which was just won by Tom Boonen from a fast finishing (but too late starting) Moreno Hofland. (edit: shades of that today in Omloop again! More on that below)

In 2013 the race was lost to the cold weather but the year before Mark Cavendish won a group sprint from Hutarovich with Arnaud Demare in 4th place. In 2011 Hutarovich was once again 2nd, this time to Sky's Chris Sutton, with Greipel in 3rd and Farrar in 4th. Boonen also took the win in 2009 and 2007 to hold the record for the most wins, can he make it 4 this year?

The Route

After leaving Kuurne and Harelbeke in the west, they traverse eastwards across Flanders, but despite the name, they don't actually reach Bruxelles, stopping short before they reach the urban streets and loop around and head back to the lumpy southern part of the course around Ronse, where they take in the Kruisberg, the Cote du Trieu and the Oude Kwaremont. They then head north and over the Hostraat and Nokereberg before heading back to the finish in Kuurne.

The Kwaremont and the Holstraat are two of the toughest sections of the race and they can offer the opportunity for solo attacks, or like last year, the chance to rip the race apart to reduce it to a small group finish. The weather is forecast to be dry on Saturday for Omloop but will get wet in the evening and could be wet on Sunday for KBK. This will make it harder and more dangerous but I'm leaning towards this race finishing in a group sprint this year - with Cavendish here for OPQS, Kristoff for Katusha and Viviani for Sky I think they will keep it together for a sprint.  

Contenders

The race can be influenced by the outcome and running of the Omloop. And what a race it was. Ian Stannard must have been the equivalent of about 25/1 to win from that quartet with Boonen, Terpstra and Vandenbergh of Etixx-QuickStep with a few kms to go. But what a total and utter balls-up they made of it. How they managed to lose that race is beyond belief. It looked like they were all racing against each other rather than with each other and Stannard got an armchair ride to the finish and out powered them at the finish. Why did Boonen attack? I think it was as he was wrecked and had nothing left and was trying to string it out for Terpstra to counter attack, which he did..

Then Terpstra attacked and who chases after him? Not Stannard, but Vandenbergh and pulled Stannard up to him. Crazy. Then Terpstra led out the sprint, going very early and got mugged by Stannard on the line. Lots of head-shaking and some harsh words in the E-QS bus and hotel tonight I'd think. Incredible performance from Stannard though, it really was - it was 3 against 1 and he smashed them. 

I managed to lay 2.7pts of Boonen at 1/2 on Betfair with a few kms to go so that helped the return on the race as it wasn't a great day otherwise - Terpstra blew the win but landed the each-way money at 10/1 and won the match-bet vs Gilbert. Van Avermaet missed the big move and depsite a fantastic chase with Vanmarcke they couldn't catch the E-QS TTT. Ligthart finished 30th and Ladagnous DNF'ed so not sure what happened to him. A poor return of -6.9pts on the blog, tempered a little by the 2.7pts lay making it a loss of 4.2pts, Terpstra winning would have turned it in to a profit on the day.. 

I think tomorrow it will come down to a reduced-bunch sprint finish and as such I'm going to concentrate on the sprinters present to start with. Mark Cavendish was joint favourite at 4/1 with Kristoff and I thought that wasn't quite right as I'd have had Cav more of a favourite than Kristoff. I think Cav is a strong favourite for this race for a number of reasons. 

Winner of this race in 2012 with a strong Sky team that day - Stannard, Flecha, Eisel, Dowsett, Sutton, Hayman, Hunt.. They led him in to the left hand bend with 500m to go perfectly, then, Stannard I think it was, put the hammer down again to drag him to the 200m to go sign where he took off and was extending his lead all the way to the line. Only Hutarovich could stay anywhere close to him and there was two bike lengths back to Van Hummell in 3rd and Demare in 4th.

Substitute the Sky guys for Trentin, Maes, Van Keirsbulck, Stybar, Lampaert and Boonen and you'd think he'll get a similar lead in to the final bend, with Boonen and Stybar possibly taking the final pulls to launch him again. Secondly, he is in good shape and is winning races - four so far this year, spread across Argentina, Dubai and Spain. In the Clasica de Almeria two weeks ago Stybar took a massive pull to deliver Renshaw and Cavendish to the last 300m and then Renshaw kicked again and Cav flew past.. no one came close to challenging him. He has beaten Guardini, Viviani, Lobato and lots of others that are in pretty good form too, including the new Colombian sprinting star Gaviria who got the better of him in several stages in San Luis. Ok, he was beaten by Viviani in Dubai too but I'm not too worried about that, he put it right on stage 4. 

Thirdly, he apparently has been warned that he needs to produce some big results this year to have his contract renewed.. What better way to start the contract negotiations with a win in a Belgian cobbled semi-classic! Finally, his biggest rival for the sprint, Alex Kristoff, has a pretty poor team with him - I can see them being bullied out of the way in the final 5kms by E-QS who will take command. 

Alexander Kristoff though cannot be ruled out just beacuse of his poor team though of course. He is in exceptional form and is joint top with Cav for most wins in the season so far at 4. In stage 1 though in Oman he had no team support whatsoever it seems in the last kilometre and was well beaten by Guardini, Boonen and Pelucchi. In the final stage in Oman, in the sprint for 5th place behind the break, he was beaten by Sagan, Sinkeldam and Bouhanni. I just have a feeling it could be something similar tomorrow in a finish dominated by the E-QS guys. 

Tom Boonen is installed as 3rd favourite around the 8/1 mark and you'd have to think that the only reasons he'll be involved will be either that Cav isn't feeling so good and gets dropped when the hammer goes down on the Nokereberg, but I can't see that happening if they want him to win.. Or a crash takes Cav out. Or maybe if it comes down to E-QS ripping the race apart Boonen is one of the last guys to lead Cav out in a reduced peloton and manages to stay on for 2nd or 3rd place, as they sometimes do.. Or some guys like Vanmarcke go for it from afar and Boonen manages to get away with a race deciding move.. but as I said, I expect this race to come down to a sprint, so I can't have Boonen. Also, now having watched OHN today, I think Boonen and co will be raging and will do all they can to bring Cav to the finish where they have a much better chance to rescue their weekend from disaster. 

Moreno Hofland is next up around 14/1 but I'm not sure about him. I did try to warn people off him in Andalucia after he had got stabbed in the thigh by a chainwheel in the big crash on stage 1, but amazingly some were still thinking he had a chance of winning some of the stages that followed. That was over a week ago now and he hasn't updated us on his injury on Twitter since, but you'd think he's probably recovered by now.. But the fact that he had to probably ride easy on it for a few days after might mean he is not in as good a shape as he could be? Hard to know. If he was fully fit and the finish was uphill I'd be liking that 14/1, but not tomorrow. (it was announced today that he's not starting, not sure why yet..)

Greg Van Avermaet is next up at 16/1, along with Sep Vanmarcke, but these are only going to be involved if they attack and split the race, but looking at the massive effort they put in today I can't see that happening. Add in the fact that GVA is now riding under a cloud (or may not even ride at all) following the report in the press Saturday morning that he is being investigated for possible 'Ozone Doping' by injection and that's a risky bet to take on now.. It dates back to 2011and his association with Dr Mertens who is the Flemish doctor being investigated for his involvement with elite Flemish athletes like Tom Meeusen. Van Avermaet appears in front of a hearing on March 13th and could face a 2-year suspension. 

Given the fact that it is likely to result in a reduced-bunch sprint, we now need to try to work out who we think will be able to hang in there all the way to the sprint given the difficult terrain they need to get over down around Ronse.. Matteo Pelucchi is a big looking 25/1 but I think he may struggle on the hellingen and may not make it to the finish with the front group. Nacer Bouhanni on the other hand is a real scrapper and did finish 3rd last year in the Nokere Koerse, a race that goes over the Nokereberg 10 times!! He has a reasonable squad with him but they can hide away and let the likes of E-QS and Katusha do the work until the last few kilometres. He has been improving bit by bit in the sprints lately and he took 3rd in the bunch sprint in the final stage of Oman lately, with Kristoff behind him. He could be involved tomorrow too at 20/1. 

Bryan Coquard is here for Europcar and he comes here fresh after a two-week break following the Etoile de Besseges, where he took a sprint stage win from Nizzolo. He also took a decent 5th in the Trophy Playa de Palma Palma in Majorca behind Pelucchi, Greipel, Swift and Bennett so has clearly some good legs this early in the season. He doesn't have a great record in these types of races though and didn't finish here last year, so I'm going to leave him. 

2nd behind Bouhanni in the Nokere Koerse that day last year was Tom Van Asbroeck, riding then for Wanty. He has since joined LottoNL-Jumbo and the young Belgian had a tremendous year last year for a guy that is almost unheard of. In August and September last year he had 11 top 10 finishes in races around Belgium and France. He had a ton of other great results too, including 6th in Gent Wevelgem and comes here with the Lotto NLJ team looking to make up for Vanmarcke's bad luck today (he punctured just as the big move was going). He was available at a massive 200/1 earlier in the week but was promptly chopped to around 50s and has been backed quite a bit since, to the point that he is now as low as 22/1. There is 33/1 with Bet365 but he may find a few too fast for him tomorrow though I fear. 

Sam Bennett finished 12th in Gent Wevelgem last year but crashed out of the Tour of Flanders very early on before we really got a chance to see how he would have coped with the cobbles. Not long after he won the Rund Um Koln over a lumpy course not too dissimilar to the KBK and of course we have seen what sort of legs he has already this year with a great stage win in Oman. I would love to see him come to the finish with a chance of tacking Cavendish, as he has a good chance of beating him. At 30/1 I'd maybe have left him, but the 66/1 with Bet365 is worth a small interest in case he's there and in with a chance. 

Roy Jans for Wanty, Wallays for Topsport, Viviani for Sky, Hutarovich for Bretagne-Seche, they could all be involved but another final guy who could be in with chance is Tyler Farrar of MTN Qhubeka. He was going ok today in the pack but just as things heated up he punctured and was struggling to get back on as the race was blown to bits at the front. He is a very popular figure in Flanders, as he lives in Ghent and speaks fluent Flemish, and always goes well in Flanders races. It's been a long time since he's won something big but he's often there or thereabouts. Winner of the sprint behind solo winner Terpstra last year in Dwars door Vlaanderen, 2nd in the Scheldeprijs and a bunch of other top 5 places, including a win in a stage in Beijing. If things fall in to place for him he could go close at 33/1 with Paddy Power. 

So, it's hard to know just how much today's OHN will have taken out of Boonen and the E-QS boys, but they are sure to be hurting and desperate to make immediate amends for that mess today. Lefevre will give them another bollicking tonight and I think they will maybe play for the safe option tomorrow. Make it hard enough to maybe get rid of some, but not too hard to drop Cav. Then deliver him perfectly at the end to take the sprint win. I think he should win and gain some redemption for the E-QS boys. I backed him today just after Omloop at 4/1, he is in to 7/2 now but I think that is still worth backing. Behind it's going to be a real battle for the other two podium spots, I think Farrar at 33/1 and Bennett at 66/1 could be worth a shot.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Mark Cavendish at 4/1 with Paddy Power (take the 7/2 with PP now)

0.5pts e/w on Sam Bennett at 66/1 with Bet365

0.3pts e/w on Tyler Farrar at 33/1 with PP

Match Bets

Bouhanni to beat Coquard - 2pts at 4/6

Farrar to beat Debuscherre - 1pt at 11/10

Bennett to beat Pelucchi - 2pts at 5/6