Details

Published on Friday, 07 August 2020 19:15

Milano Sanremo

Saturday 8th August

Milan to Sanremo, 305Km

Milan - Sanremo.. In August.. In 30 degree heat.. with a new, longer course.. as if it wasn't hard enough to pick a winner of the first monument of the season, we have all of this to contend with too. 

Add in the fact that the season has been thrown upside down with the Corona Crisis, with riders who normally peak in Spring for this having to readjust their schedules and training, and with limited race evidence to go on, the impossible has just gotten even harder! This is my first preview since March too, I've just been too busy with work and other stuff (like riding my bike more, trying to buy a house etc..) to be able to commit any time to the website.And with so many races going on at the same time, it's going to be very hard to try to do previews for some, let alone all of them. 

When I started my shell for this preview back in March I was writing my usual lines about "When does the season proper start? Some say Down Under, some say with the OHN/KBK weekend in Belgium, some say Paris-Nice, while some purists say it's only with the first Monument of the season, Milan San Remo." etc.. Well, who would have foreseen what lay in store for us for the last 4 months, with cycling reduced to lads on home trainers racing on Zwift and races slowly coming back behind 'Closed doors' - the most open 'closed doors' you will ever see in most cases though.. Second wave? Pffftttt..

Anyway, enough of the rambling, I don't have much time, let's crack on. Whichever way you look at it, MSR is a race to savour and look forward to. It's even more of an endurance challenge for riders and viewers alike this year at 305kms long, the longest race of the year by a long way. They've had to change the route away from the busy tourist-filled coastline, rather than the run along the Liguerian coast, the race heads mostly inland before hitting the coast for its traditional finale over the Cipressa and Poggio climbs.

They have cut out the traditional landmarks of the Turchino and the Capi, but according to Trek Sports Director Adriano Baffi, “With the climb of Niella Belbo positioned 140km to the finish, the riders’ legs will be more tired than in the past, while the descent from Colle di Nava is technical and tricky,” Baffi said. “The fight for the best positions will be more intense. It’s possible that this will make the Cipressa and Poggio the ideal terrain for a sharper selection than we’ve seen in recent editions.” They also, just today, added more road to the race as they had to adjust the route around Alessandria after thunderstorms in the area.. so it's now 305kms, over the 300kms limit it is normally supposed to be!

Last year's race was won in sensational fashion by man of the spring Julian Alaphilippe, outsprinting Naesen, Kwiatkowski and Sagan, with Wout Van Aert in 6h and 2018's winner 'Lo Squalo', Vincenzo Nibali in 8th. 

One other key point to note with this year's race is that teams are reduced to just 6 riders per team, compared to 7 last year - this will make it even harder to control the race, and could see the race break apart more than usual. It might mean that we don't see a bunch sprint.. but with the quality on show here and with the amount of riders who could possibly win, it's going to be very hard to get away and stay away..  

The Race

Luck plays a massive part in this race - an untimely puncture or one of the many nervous crashes can put paid to your chances. The series of climbs along the route, coupled with the monster distance, means that there are a lot of very tired legs before they even reach the 'climax' of the race over the Cipressa and the Poggio. 

First run in 1907, it is known as 'The Sprinters Classic' with the Giro Di Lombardia in the Autumn known as 'The Climbers Classic'. But as we know, it's not just sprinters win the MSR and it's not just climbers win Lombardia! In fact, in the last 5 editions, only Arnaud Démare could be classed as a sprinter winner, with the rest going to 'Classics' men.

Eddy Merckx has the most wins in the race with seven, more recently Eric Zabel has won four, but famously threw away a fifth title when celebrating too early, Oscar Freire mugging him on the line. Sean Kelly has two wins, the best of which was after his breath-taking descent of the Poggio in 1992, showing that the Poggio can decide winners coming down it, as well as up it.

John Degenkolb became the second German in two years to win the race in 2015 after Gerard Ciolek in 2013, joining Eric Zabel and Rudi Altig as the only German winners of the race. Before Vincenzo Nibali last year, Pippo Pozzato was the last Italian winner of the race in 2006, which marked the end of a good run for the Italians, with Petacchi winning in 2005, Bettini in 2003 and Cippolini in 2002. And in 2017 Michal Kwiatkowski became the first ever Polish rider to win the race with his lunge on the finish line beside Alaphilippe and Sagan

The Route

The route is similar to previous years, but different, as I pointed out already. They spend more time inland and go over the Colle di Nava after 235kms, so we could already see the field start to reduce with 70kms still to go. With 277kms gone though they face the first big 'reducer' of the day, the Cipressa. 5.6kms long at an average of 4.1%, we should see some early attacks go and should see the peloton lose maybe a quarter of whoever's left.

A quick descent and they are back on the coast again for the flat run to the Poggio. Any breakaway riders need to work extremely hard here as every second counts on the Poggio. With just over 10kms to go they turn right off the main coastal road as the road forks in two and start the Poggio di Sanremo. It's not that long as just 3.7kms, nor that hard at just 3.7% average (max of 8%), but the fact that it comes after 285kms of riding that makes it tough. It starts steady enough but rises in gradient at various points on the way up.

Once over the top it's the "kamikaze" descent, as Séan would say, back down to Sanremo, there's only 5.4kms to go from the top. At the bottom, there are just over 2kms left to the finish on the Via Roma, so not much time to get organised, it's every man for himself. There's that infamous right-hander with 750m to go, but after that it's more or less dead straight to the line, with the sprinters hugging the right-hand side of the road almost every year.

The Weather

It's going to be a hot August day in Italy, around 30 degress, and the wind is only a gentle breeze, around 6-7mph, coming from the south-west. It does mean though, with a SW wind, that it will be in their faces coming off the Poggio and for most of the last 5kms. Low as it is at just 7mph, it will still work slightly against any lone attackers on the run to the finish. 

Course Details

Contenders and Favourites

Where do you even start? I haven't a clue! But let's go through the betting from the top, here's a quick synopsis of each riders chances, from my point of view: 

Wout Van Aert - 6/1 

One that definitely has to be on the short list. If this does become a punch-up out on the course, then he is very likely to be one of the last men standing coming to the last km. He was superb in Strade Bianche and sprinted impressively to 3rd place in Milano-Torino. He looks fit, strong and ready for this and has shown in M-T that he has a sprint that can beat most of these guys after a tough day in the saddle like this, including some of the sprinters. He has a decent support team here with him, with Tolhoek, Roosen, Lindeman, Jansen and Martens, but he showed in Strade that when it comes to the crunch, he can look after himself. A worthy favourite. 

Caleb Ewan - 7/1

A light, gutsy little sprinter, he is one of the most likely you would think to be able to hang on to the coat-tails of the Classics men as they charge over the Poggio, and if he gets to the sprint, he has to have a massive chance. With Phiippe Gilbert, Van der Sande, Maes and De Buyst there with him, he should have good support to get him over the top of the Poggio with the leaders.. 

But.. What if he is struggling a little and Gilbert is feeling good? Does he cut him loose, with that fifth monument potentially up for grabs? It will be interesting to see how that plays out. He came close in M-T in 2nd place, but you'd expect him to be beating Arnaud Demare if he wants to win this tomorrow. It would have been a good leg-loosener on his first start of the 'new' season though. 

Mathieu Van der Poel - 8/1

The wonder kid. All eyes will be on him again to see if he can repeat what his grandfather, Raymond Poulidor, did in 1961 in winning in his first start in the race. His race was disrupted by an untimely puncture in Strade, but he admitted himself his legs weren't great that day, and I think he might well have been able to fight his way back in to contention if he was 100%. He says he doesn't mind the heat, and he showed in Amstel Gold and Flanders that he doesn't have too much trouble with really long races.

His team are a big weakness, he could well be on his own a long way from home, but barring a mechanical, he should be able to just sit in and use other teams. He is sure to be there or thereabouts at the finish, but if it comes down to a sprint, Van Aert will take him. 

Peter Sagan - 8/1

Sagan.. almost the forgotten man at the moment with all this new, young talent coming through. It's been 13 months since he last won a race, the longest barren spell of his career, and to me, I'm not sure he'll be breaking that losing streak on Saturday. He was never in the race at Strade and looked drained when the cameras did linger on him for a few seconds towards the end of the race. 

He has one of the strongest teams here though with Oss, Benedetti, Burghardt, Gatto and Grosschartner, he is sure to have 2 or 3 of them at least hitting the Poggio and they can be called upon to chase down any attacks. I'm not sure he's 100% though, I think 4th to 10th for him. 

Michael Matthews - 16/1

Bling has an ok record here, 3rd in 2015, 7th in 2018, he is one of those 'Classics' type sprinters who prefers a lumpy day in the saddle, he doesn't have the flat-out speed of the better sprinters. He hasn't raced since Paris-Nice though, has no race miles in his legs since the restart of racing, and that might work against him on such a long, hot, hard day. Decent team with him though, and he has been training with Nico Roche and Richie Porte, so they've probably taken him over lots of hills.. Hard one to call, but I'm saying no. 

Julian Alaphilippe - 16/1

Brilliant winner last year, 3rd two years ago, this is a race that looks tailor-made for Alaphilippe. After a mixed start to the season he came back in Strade, but a puncture put paid to his chances too. But like MVDP, it looked like he just didn't have the legs anyway. It was good training for this race though, but I'm not sure he's 100% yet either, with the Dauphiné and Le Tour his main objectives to come. Of course, you can't rule him out at all and he should be motivated to do well to dedicate a win to Fabio Jakobsen.

DQS have quite a few options here though, and a very strong team, with Asgreen, Jungels, Bennett and Stybar other potential winners, so it will be interesting to see what the team orders are going to be - will they be trying to get Bennett over the Poggio to see if he can win the sprint, or if he's already gone out the back, then it could be down to Stybar and Alap to either go on the attack or wait for a reduced sprint against 'Classics' men, a sprint he won last year. I don't think he has the same legs he had this time last year though so I don't know if he'll be beating the likes of WVA.

Arnaud Démare - 16/1

Always has a chance in a race like this and he showed he can win it, albeit controversially in 2016. He warmed up for this with a superb win in Milano-Torino, beating a host of his rivals that will line up again Saturday. His team were superb that day in the leadout, they were the only team that really nailed it and he has Sinkeldam, Konovolovas, Scotson and Guarnieri here again for him, with the added bonus of Stefan Kung. 

He's also finished 3rd and 6th in this race and if he can repeat his performance in M-T, he has to have a massive chance of being in the frame at the finish. 

Philippe Gilbert - 18/1

I touched on him already when talking about Ewan, we'll have to see how the race pans out.. But if he has even the sniff of a chance of being able to contest for the win here, you can be sure he will go for it, and enter the history books. He was never really in the running in Strade or Milano Torino though, he was working for Ewan in the latter of course. I think his only chance is to attack on the Poggio (or earlier possibly) and hope he get a small group of strong guys go with him to the finish. If he does, then he has a chance of a top 3, maybe even the win, depending on who's with him.

Sam Bennett - 22/1

I touched on Bennett also above in relation to Alaphilippe. A few weeks ago I was confident of a big ride from Bennett here after he flew up that hill from the 1km to go banner in Burgos, but he was disappointing in M-T. He got cut off a little from his leadout with about 1km to go, drifted back through the pack very quickly, then tried to move up again in the last 500m but got boxed and just didn't look like he had the legs to get out of it. He also finished behind Gaviria and Demare in that first sprint in Burgos, but it looks like a crash late on hampered his run and Gaviria had got away. 

He can be hit and miss on days like this, some days he can get over anything like this course can throw at him, other days he fades away timidly. The weather is probably going to be against him, and I'm not entirely sure he is at 100% yet either.. but he did show with that acceleration in Burgos that he can't be in that bad shape and we could well see DQS rally around him if he thinks his legs are good heading to the Poggio. He will need good legs and luck in running, but if Démare and Ewan can get to the finish, Bennett could well be there too and could take both of them. 

Fernando Gaviria - 22/1

He looked like he could well have won this race back in 2016 as they hit the last corner, but came crashing down to earth. He too disappointed badly in M-T, finishing 7th, beaten by the likes of Van Aert, but his win in Burgos was impressive, the way he accelerated away from the final bend to win on his own more or less. With Pogacar and Formolo he has two very strong climbers in good form to look after him on the Cipressa and Poggio and Kristoff and Richeze, if they are still involved, which they may well be, could be a super leadout for him. I'm going out on a limb though, I don't think he'll be in the front group at the finish. 

Alberto Bettiol - 22/1

Looked very strong for a long time in Strade, then went bang when Wout put the hammer down. Has shown in Flanders he can cope with long days, but his only way of winning this is by attacking away and I can't see that happening. His team-mate Simon Clarke might have a better chance at much bigger odds of 66/1

Matteo Trentin - 25/1

Another 'strong' sprinter who can cope well with hilly days, the best he has managed here though is two 10th places, his 10th last year was very disappointing, he was last in the group, a group he really should have been beating most of. He prefers it when it's wet and messy though, so I'm not sure he'll be very comfortable in Saturday's heat. 

Ivan Garcia Cortina - 33/1

Has a chance - decent sprinter at the end of a hard day, but this is his debut and he was a DNF in Strade.. Will be hard to land a win but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the mix, supported by a decent team that might have Colbrelli, Mohoric, Teuns and Caruso with him at the finish. 

Vincenzo Nibali - 33/1

A bit like Bettiol, he will only win with a late attack and I can't see him getting away with that again. 

Alex Aranburu - 33/1

I've been impressed with him lately, after following him for a few seasons while with Caja Rural. He likes a lumpy day and he went very well in the Gran Trittico Lombardo last week, winning the bunch sprint ahead of the likes of Van Avermaet and Kwiatkowski, but unfortunately for him, his team-mate Izagirre had already taken the win! He has the power of Astana with him now and we could well see the blue jerseys of Izagirre, Lutsenko, Boaro and Fraile swarming towards the front as they hit the Cipressa in order to make it a hard test. A good outside shot at 33/1. 

Others with chances - Greg Van Avermaet, Giacomo Nizzolo and Nacer Bouhanni at 50/1.. but they are 50/1 shots I think, it will take a lot of luck for them to win it. Niccolo Bonifazio is not a bad shout at 66/1, he has finished 5th here in the past and hails from Cuneo, just north of Sanremo. 

So - an impossible race to call, so many factors to take in to account, but I'm going to be going with the guy who looks to be one of the fittest and strongest at the moment - Wout Van Aert. I think we might get a reduced group of about 15 riders come over the top of the Poggio in with a chance hitting the last kilometer and it will turn in to a sprint amongst some very tired men. He finished very strongly in Strade and also came very fast late on in M-T, I think he could just have the power to take his first Monument. Even MVDP, when asked this week, who he thought would win, he said Wout.. 

I think that Arnaud Démare could well be in the picture too if it comes to a reduced sprint, judging by how well he looked in M-T, and as outsiders, Aranburua and Bonifazio can hopefully give us a run for our money at bigger prices. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Wout Van Aert at 13/2 with Betway

0.5pts e/w on Arnaud Démare at 16/1 general

0.5pts e/w on Alex Aranburu at 33/1

0.3pts e/w on Niccolo Bonifazio at 66/1

Matchbets

Démare to beat Bouhanni, MVDP to beat Matthews and Kristoff to beat Edvald Boasson Hagen - 2pts at 2/1 on the treble

Aranburu to beat Trentin - 2pts at 6/4

Ewan to beat Gaviria and Démare to beat Bouhanni - 2pts at 1.04/1

Bonifazio to beat Cimolai - 2pts at evens

Gilbert to beat Alaphilippe - 1pt at 11/10