Details

Published on Thursday, 15 March 2018 21:25

Milano Sanremo

Saturday 17th March

Milan to Sanremo, 291Km

When does the season proper start? Some say Down Under, some say with the OHN/KBK weekend in Belgium, some say Paris-Nice, while some more say it's only with the first Monument of the season of Milan San Remo.

Whichever way you look at it, MSR is a race to savour and look forward to. It's an endurance challenge for riders and viewers alike at 291kms long, the longest race of the year. 'La Classicisima di Primavera' starts Saturday morning in Milan and some six and a half hours, and 291 kilometres later they come charging down off the Poggio to the finish line on Via Roma in San Remo in a well-worn path they have been treading for 105 editions. 

It's a race steeped in history and prestige, a race notorious for its distance and its climax over the ascent, and descent of the Poggio, a name famous in cycling folklore. Sometimes raced in harsh, northern-Italy-in-March winter conditions, it's often referred to as 'the sprinters Classic' but you have to be a real hard man to win this one.

Last year's race saw Peter Sagan do what Peter Sagan does best and blow the race to pieces at the top of the Poggio, where only Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski could come with him. It looked like he would easily take his first MSR victory, only for Kwiatkowski to lunge on the line and nick it from him with Alapolak back in 3rd and Kristoff winning the sprint for 4th from Gaviria, Démare, Degenkolb, Bouhanni, Viviani and Ewan. 

There have been a number of withdrawals from the race in the last week or so, with Mark Cavendish breaking a rib in the opening TTT in Tirreno, John Degenkolb has bronchitis and just Monday, Fernando Gaviria crashed in Tirreno and broke a bone in his hand, so is ruled out also and Tuesday saw Nacer Bouhanni pull out as he's sick too. It also looked like Tom Dumoulin and Michael Matthews would miss the race, but were declared fit to ride on Tuesday as well. 

But we still have a stellar lineup here this year - former winners Alexander Kristoff, Arnaud Démare and Kwiatkowski, along with Sagan and Swift who have finished 2nd in this race and Philippe Gilbert who has finished 3rd twice. Michael Matthews (3rd in '15), GVA, Nacer Bouhanni, Julian Alaphilippe, Sonny Colbrelli, Vincenzo Nibali and lots, lots more.

The Race

Luck plays a massive part in this race - an untimely puncture or one of the many nervous crashes can put paid to your chances. First run in 1907, it is known as 'The Sprinters Classic'  with the Giro Di Lombardia in the Autumn known as 'The Climbers Classic'. But as we know, it's not just sprinters win the MSR and it's not just climbers win Lombardia!

Eddy Merckx has the most wins in the race with seven, more recently Eric Zabel has won four, but famously threw away a fifth title when celebrating too early, Oscar Freire mugging him on the line. Sean Kelly has two wins, the best of which was after his breath-taking descent of the Poggio in 1992, showing that the Poggio can decide winners coming down it, as well as up it.

John Degenkolb became the second German in two years to win the race in 2015 after Gerard Ciolek in 2013, joining Eric Zabel and Rudi Altig as the only German winners of the race. But of course Degenkolb missed out on the race in 2016 after his horror crash with the car while out training. Pippo Pozzato was the last Italian winner of the race in 2006 the end of a good run for the Italians, with Petacchi winning in 2005, Bettini in 2003 and Cippolini in 2002. And last year Michal Kwiatkowski became the first ever Polish rider to win the race with his heroics on the finish line.

The Route

The route is more or less the same as it has been for the last 4 years, in fact, it is exactly the same as last year. It takes in the Cipressa and the Poggio, but without the Pompeiana that was supposed to be added in 2014, but was subsequently removed because of the poor condition of the road.  The course is the same distance as last year's edition at 291kms.

So it's back to the classic route again - the road leaves Milan and meanders along for 118kms until the start of the Turchino, a long but easy climb which tops out with 142kms gone and then dives down to the coast for 80kms or so of flat racing. 

At the 240km mark, when most races are long finished, they are only just getting to the serious part of the race. First up, the three 'Capi' - the Capo Mele, Cervo and Berta, but they shouldn't really trouble most of the peloton. With 266kms gone though they face the first big 'reducer' of the day, the Cipressa. 5.6kms long at an average of 4.1%, we should see some early attacks go and should see the peloton lose maybe a quarter of whoever's left. 

A quick descent and they are back on the coast again for the flat run to the Poggio. Any breakaway riders need to work extremely hard here as every second counts on the Poggio. With just over 10kms to go they turn right off the main coastal road as the road forks in two and start the Poggio di Sanremo. It's not that long as just 3.7kms, nor that hard at just 3.7% average (max of 8%), but the fact that it comes after 285kms of riding that makes it tough. It starts steady enough but rises in gradient at various points on the way up.

Once over the top it's the "kamikaze" descent, as Séan would say, back down to Sanremo, there's only 5.4kms to go from the top. At the bottom, there are just over 2kms left to the finish on the Via Roma, so not much time to get organised, it's every man for himself. There's that infamous right-hander with 750m to go, but after that it's more or less dead straight to the line, with the sprinters hugging the right-hand side of the road almost every year.

The Weather

The weather isn't great for Saturday, it's forecast to rain more or less all day, and there will be a south-westerly wind all day, meaning it will be a head-wind all day as they head towards San Remo. It's not very strong at just 6-8mph, but it will be tiring for the break, and will be in the face of the attackers, and chasers coming off the Poggio. It's not going to be too cold though at around 12 degrees. 

Course Details

Contenders and Favourites

I am really looking forward to this race - so many riders in with chances, so many riders in great form, so many riders who have made this their focal point of their spring campaigns.. It has lots of hills, it has a crucial, decisive hill 6kms from the finish, but it is mostly likely to end in a reduced sprint of some sort, solo winners are few and far between in this race.

Last year it was the three best puncheurs in the race, Alap, Sags and Kwiat who pulled away from the rest on the Poggio, and it was all down to Sagan really. He attacked hard near the top of the Poggio when everyone was on the limit by the pink house with the water tank (that's him on the right shooting off the front) and Colbrelli and Degenkolb tried to stay with him and failed, but Kwiat and Alaphilippe jumped after him. 

It took a while for them to catch Sagan, but mainly because Kwiat shunned working several times and Alap was forced to do the chasing. It was something that irked Sagan, the fact that Kwiat didn't work at all in the run-in, it even annoyed him this week when asked about it.. 

"it's about the way you win. If you analyse how Kwiato won last year, then... If I win like that, I wouldn't be happy with my performance"

To which Kwiat responded: 

"Sometimes you don't win the races by being strongest, but you need to be the smartest"

So, shots fired, and they are ready to do battle again Sunday. So how's it going to pan out this time? It's a real race of attrition in the final 50kms or so, with the hills coming one after the other. And it's not just the hills that can catch you out, as I mentioned already above, luck plays a big part in this race, as the narrow, twisty roads and a flying, nervous peloton can see chances disappear in a touch of wheels, or an over-shot corner. A strong team is important, to keep you in the right position on the Cipressa and the Poggio, but generally once over the Poggio it is every man for himself and teams are lucky to have 2 or 3 riders left. A great illustration of that is that in the top 25 last year, there were riders from 19 different teams.

Favourite for this race for months now has been Peter Sagan, and with good reason - his record here is pretty impressive -  2nd, 12th (but hampered by Gaviria's crash), 4th, 19th, 12th and 17th in the past, he is tailor made for the course. His form has been excellent, as usual, he warmed up for this in Tirreno with some superb rides, none more so than on stage 6 when he almost came down in the crash that took out Gaviria and came from dead last with 4kms to go to to take 2nd in the sprint behind Kittel.

He also finished 2nd on the tough uphill finish to Filottrano in stage 5 and 2nd to Kittel in the sprint in stage 2, he showed he has the legs for the uphill parts, and the speed for the sprints. He started his European season really late but still rode to 8th place in Strade Bianche. He didn't look in great shape when push came to shove in the race but it looked like he didn't want the others to lean on him and make him do all the chasing. Later in the race he put the power down to put a lot under pressure and set himself up for an 8th place finish. 

He is almost certain to attack again around the same point, the question is, will the same characters come with him this year? Will there be others who anticipate the move and stay with him this time? Will he be forced to do all the pushing again by others reluctant to take him to the line and he decides to sit up, preferring to chance his luck in the sprint than drag someone like Kwiat to the line again? He's only 5/2 best price, has not been bigger than 11/4 all season, he possibly will win, but it's a short price to take on. 

Biggest danger looks on paper (and with the bookies at 8/1 second favourite) is Michal Kwiatkowski, and he comes here as defending champion on the back of a slightly fortuitous victory in Tirreno-Adriatico, with the demise of Geraint Thomas. But that's not to say he wouldn't have done well anyway, he is riding very powerfully and has already won two stages and the overall in Andalucia and now the overall in Tirreno too. 

He was just too smart for Sagan last year, and riding smart is something we have seen over and over from Kwiatkowski, he's a master at smart moves and smart tactics. And the conditions will be in his favour, he doesn't mind it cold and wet. He has a big chance again for sure, will he get under Sagan's skin again though?

Julian Alaphilippe was the 3rd rider home last year, he was no match for the front two in the sprint, but he too had been leant on by Kwiat in the chase down of Sagan, Kwiat made him do the most of the work. He is not the third favourite though, he's slightly bigger around 16/1, and I agree with that. I think he has been ok, but not great so far this year and has disappointed quite a lot, none more so than when he blew up in the rain on stage 7 of Paris Nice and lost all chance of overall victory. He was powerful enough to come after Sagan last year and catch him, will he be able to do so this year? I'm not so sure.. And I'm hoping he'll be working for.. 

Elia Viviani - anyone who follows me on Twitter knows I've been sweet on him all year, and have been backing him for this since January. I'm on at a boosted 40/1 with Ladbrokes, 25/1 and 14/1 just last week, he's now as short as 8/1, but still available at 14/1. He has three wins to his name already this year and another nine top 6 finishes, he has been one of the top sprinters of the year so far. He didn't have a great record in the first three attempts at this race, but he was right up there in the sprint last year to take 9th (or 6th in the sprint). 

He has the no. 1 bib, he is riding really strongly, but he did struggle a bit on the hillier stages of Paris Nice where some thought that he would be able to stay with the leaders and fight out the finishes (including the bookies). But the fact he got over the Poggio with the leaders last year pleases me, and he has the support of Alap, Gilbert, Sabatini, Keisse and Richeze.. that lineup almost suggests they are hoping for a sprint train finish, but now that Gaviria is out, it's all for Viviani. Fingers crossed. 

I've a feeling that someone like Gilbert or Keisse goes for it on the Cipressa, to put the cat amongst the pigeons and make the other teams work a bit, giving QSF an easy ride to the Poggio. If Sabatinia and Richeze can hang in there (big ask I know), then it's definitely advantage Viv.

Third favourite with most bookies though is Alexander Kristoff, and he's anothe who'll be hoping it comes back together for a sprint finish, as he has a pretty good record here when it comes to sprints. 8th in 2013 (but winner of the sprint behind the first group), winner in 2014 (in the rain), 2nd in 2015 behind Degenkolb, 6th and 4th last year (winner of the sprint behind the first trio). He comes in to his own on monster distances like this one and on wet days, so he'll definitely be in the mix you'd think if it comes to a sprint. 

Two wins in the middle-east, along with nine top tens means he's in good shape, but having watched him struggle to land podiums in his sprints so far this year, I'm a little worried that he is just a little off his top level to take this. He is supported by Diego Ulissi, Ben Swift and Marco Marcato, but it's not a great looking team to me, he'll be on his own I think cresting the Poggio.

Arnaud Démare won this in 2016 and finished 3rd in the sprint behind the front three last year. He too is in good form and seems to go well on longer, harder races like this one. He was fancied for ONH and KBK but he was only down in 9th in OHN and was easily outgunned by Groenewegen in KBK.

He did grind out a good win in the first stage of PN though last week, was only 5th in the next sprint but won the sprint behind the breakaway trio in the third stage also. He got some good wet weather training in over the week, before going home after stage 5. 

His team are going to be his weakspot though, he may well be on his own on the charge down the hill. He has got Bonnet, Cimolai and Roux, but it certainly isn't a Quick-Step that's for sure, although Cimolai did finish in the top 10 in 2015 when Degenkolb won. But given his performances in sprints so far, and his record here in the past, he has to have a chance of going close at 12/1.

Michael Matthews was supposed to be missing this but is now on the start list again.. 3rd in 2015, 12th last year, but his only start so far this year has been in OHN when he DNF'ed. That makes it very hard to back him in such a monstrously difficult race with so little racing in his legs, they might be better off getting behind Edward Theuns who was 6th in OHN. 

Greg Van Avermaet was one of the few puncheurs to miss the key move last year by Sagan and Kwiat, he was stranded too far back and wasn't able to respond. He ended up finishing in 21st, way down, never got in a blow. The year before he finished in 5th, at least he contested the sprint. His record here is average, I think he is happy to just use this as training for the cobbled Classics. He's not had a great start to the season, by his stellar standards, but did notch a 1st and a 2nd in Oman a month back. I think we'll be looking at 10th to 20th again.

I wrote last year that I thought Sonny Colbrelli could be a dark horse in this race as the Italian sprinter was having a fine season and his results in MSR weren't bad at all - 13th, 12th, 6th, 18th, 9th in the last five years, meaning he has had no problems getting over the Poggio with the leaders, just hasn't had the luck in running over the final kilometres or the power to finish it off. 

A stage win on the Hatta Dam and a top 9 in every single stage of the Dubai Tour shows he is in good early-season form. He followed that with 8th in OHN, where he was one of the protagonists of the move that won, and then took a fine 3rd in KBK the next day, showing he has good stamina in the legs too. He didn't have a great Tirreno, but revealed on the day of stage 7 that he had been suffering from Bronchitis and was pulling out to get ready for MSR. He tried to go after Sagan last year, but couldn't, but it showed he was right at the front of the peloton when it mattered most. if he can be there again, he could challenge for the first Italian win since Pozzato in 2006. He's 33/1 in places, and that's worth a nibble.

Fabio Felline has an outside chance too of course now that there is no Degenkolb for Trek, but he hasn't really shown me anything yet this year to put any confidence in him. Edvald Boasson Hagen tried late on two years ago just after Kwiatkowski was reeled in but didn't get far, eventually finishing 26th. He hasn't had a good start to this season though and his record here is 10th place at best in 2015, I think he'll be outside the top 10 again.

Dimension Data have a strong looking team here though, and the surprise name on the list is Mark Cavendish, who crashed out of Tirreno and had a badly injured face and a broken rib. I didn't think he'd make it, but has been named on the team, so he mustn't be too bad, but.. will he really be able to give it 100% with a broken rib? He has even ruled himself out of any chance of winning, says he is there to support the team. It certainly puts me off backing him even at 66/1.

Daryl Impey seems to have come off the boil a little since his excellent start to the season, but Mitchelton Scott have a lively chance too with Matteo Trentin, who continues his recovery from injury earlier in the season and has been riding pretty well considering. He finished 10th here in 2016 but DNF'ed the two years before that and was 5th last year, so he's real hit and miss. They also have Caleb Ewan, but to be honest I don't know if he'll have the legs for the sprint after this test, he was 10th last year but behind six other sprinters.

Magnus Cort Neilsen might have a chance here too for Astana if it comes to a reduced peloton sprint, he could well be up there, and they have several other guys who could have a say in the outcome of this race. Michael Valgren is riding well, but this is a very different sort of race to OHN, but could he attack earlier, maybe on the Cipressa? Same with Alexey Lutsenko, he's in good form this year and is a bit unpredictable, he could well attack earlier too. But maybe it might be better that they wrap MCN up in cotton wool up until the top of the Poggio and see how he goes. If Valgren, Lutsenko and maybe even Gatto or LL Sanchez are still there coming off the Poggio, they have the firepower to maybe drag it all back together again. 

And what about the two German sprinters? André Greipel takes part in his sixth MSR, but his average finishing position is around 35th, hard to see him improving on that. Marcel Kittel takes part in his first ever MSR, and there was a general reaction of surprise to the news he was going to ride it. Marcel Kittel gets dropped on the ramp up to a pre-race presentation stage, I really can't see him hanging in there over the Poggio.

Jurgen Roelandts, Tony Gallopin, Jasper Stuyven are three more that could shake it up with attacks, but hard to see them being let go and build up enough of a lead to hold off the favourites here. 

Conclusion

So, how does it pan out this year then? Same as last year? Sagan attacks, only a few go with him and a small group fights out the finish? I'm not so sure this year. He has been talking about doing things differently and the team have been talking about he learning from his mistakes of the past.. what does that mean? Does he wait and hope for the sprint? Does he attack again in a similar place, but do less of the work this time? If he choses to do either of those, then I think we could see a reduced bunch sprint. It's hard to see him not involved though, he probably will blow things up on the Poggio, so then it comes down to who has been able to stay with him. 

I'm hoping Viviani can, and he has a team-mate or two with him. But even if he hasn't, he likes to surf wheels on his own in the last kilometre or two anyway. Démare will be there, Kristoff too, and hopefully Colbrelli as well. If it does come down to that sort of finish, then Kwiat and Alaphilippe probably won't feature, but we could see GVA in the mix. But I'm going to stick with Viviani, I think there is still some value in him at 14/1, with Colbrelli at a much bigger price too, the 33/1 is nice, 25/1 elsewhere is ok too. 

One last thing to remember too with late attacks though.. there has been a trend lately for chasers to look at each other far too much and respond so late they let attackers go all the way to the line.. Could we see the same thing again Saturday, whether that's Sagan or someone else? 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Elia Viviani at 14/1 with Betfair

0.3pts each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 33/1 with Betway

0.5pts e/w on Arnaud Démare at 12/1  

Matchbets

Ewan to beat Van Poppel and Viviani to beat Greipel - 2pts at 11/10

Add Alaphilippe to beat Gilbert to make it a treble - 2pts at 6/4

Colbrelli to beat Cort Neilsen - 2pts at 6/5

Ulissi to beat Valgren - 2pts at 5/6

Haas to beat Pozzato - 2pts at evens, all with Bet365