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Published on Friday, 20 April 2018 13:13

Liège-Bastogne-Liège

Liège to Ans

Sunday 22rd April, 258kms

On to the 4th monument of the season, and one of the oldest races on the calendar, Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Alejandro Valverde stormed away with yet another victory in 2017, and was hot favourite for this, up until his failure to win Fleche-Wallone on Wednesday..

We had an unusually exciting Fleche, with Vincenzo Nibali, as often is his way, ripping up the script with 40kms still to race, attacking hard and taking a small group with him. It certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons, as QSF had Schachmann in the break and didn't need to work and it fell to Movistar, or almost entirely Mikel Landa, to do the chasing. It was a furious pace and a real war of attrition in the last 40kms, and they eventually reeled in the leaders and set up the usual charge up the Mur..

Except it wasn't a typical charge up the Mur, as the peloton had been decimated, with probably less than 40 guys together coming to the finale. And it wasn't the typical charge up the Mur either, in that Valverde for once found himself a little too far back when it reached the crucial part of the climb and had to put in a lot of effort just to get close to Alap who had surged ahead. He almost caught him, but Alap surged again and he won it by quite a margin in the end.. Jelle Vanendert was best of the Lotto Soudal boys in taking 3rd, with Romain Kreuziger impressing again in taking 4th, following his 2nd in Amstel Gold. 

Michael Matthews was super-impressive in 5th and Bauke Mollema recovered from being out the back not far from home to take 6th. Dan Martin was really disappointing, once again, he was dropped on the penultimate time up the Mur and never got back on.. Something just isn't right with Martin, the move to UAE has turned out to be a disaster so far, it might be all the gold in his back pockets weighing him down. But his form is in marked contrast to the all-conquering Quick-Step team, you have to wonder what it is they are putting in the water bottles in QuickStep compared to at UAE Emirates.. 

At 258kms long, 'La Doyenne' is the same distance as 2018, 10kms longer than in 2016, but still 5kms shorter than the 100th edition in 2014. It is the longest of the Ardennes Classics races and indeed one of the longest Classics of the season. The finish is of course an iconic hill, but is a very different prospect to the Cauberg or the Mur de Huy, and is preceded by a whole number of tough climbs along the way. Most notably, the Côte de la Redoute and the nasty Côte de Saint Nicholas. Coming with just 5km to go, the Saint Nicholas often makes a final selection before the last climb up to the finish in Ans.

This is one of the great races - a real race of attrition with nasty climbs coming one after the other for the last 100kms. It's one of the toughest classics which sees GC men battle with classics riders and the list of winners is a who's who of legends - Eddy Merckx has won it 5 times, Moreno Argentin 4 times, Sean Kelly twice. Can an out-of-sorts Dan Martin emulate his compatriot and land his second win in La Doyenne? He came agonisingly close again last year. Can Valverde make it a famous five wins to take him level with the great Merckx? It's all up in the air, it's hard to call it, it should be great. 

Last year's race saw Stephane Rosetto attack with 20kms to go and was joined by Tim Wellens with less than 10kms left. They were reeled in on the Cote de Saint Nicholas with just 6.1kms to go and Davide Formolo lanuched a strong attack that saw him lead all the way to inside the final kilometre. Dan Martin attacked powerfully in his trademark style and shot past him with 500m to go.. Valverde went in pursuit and when he latched on to Martin turning the final bend, you knew there was only going to be one winner.

Valverde easily won the sprint and dedicated the race to Michele Scarponi, who had tragically been killed the day before the race. Michal Kwiatkowski stayed on to take 3rd, with Michael Matthews an impressive 4th and Ion Izagirre and Romain Bardet rounding out the top 6. 

The Route

As they head south out of Liège they follow more or less the exact same route as last year and the year before - there is hardly a flat stretch of road to be seen for over 260kms with a relentless run of of hills. There are many unclassified climbs and hills along the route, but the first classified climb comes after 72kms with the Côte de Bonnerue, followed by the Cote de Saint Roch after 109kms.

The middle part of the race sees a bunch of climbs come thick and fast between the 168-198km mark. After that comes the new climb that was introduced three years ago, the Col du Rosier, after 198kms which is 4.4kms at 5.9%. This is again followed by the Col du Maquisard after 211kms, which is 2.5kms at 5% average. 

It's back on to the familiar run in though from there with the Côte de la Redoute next up after 222kms - another ridiculously narrow road that is barely wide enough for 4 riders to ride side-by-side. It's a testing 8.9% for 2kms and we could see some attacks go here in an attempt to break things up before the finishing hills like in recent races, as there's just 30kms to go. It's then on to the  Côte de la Roche aux Facons with just 19.5kms to go, another horrible climb (9.3% for 1.5kms, the last 500m average nearly 11%.) 

Then they hit what is usually the penultimate climb, the Côte de Saint Nicolas, where Pozzovivo and Caruso attacked in 2014 and where Betancur attacked in 2013 and kicked off the response which saw Martin, Scarponi, Rodriguez and Valverde break away in pursuit of Ryder Hesjedal who was up the road and set up the race-winning move for Martin.

The final hill to the finish is almost dead straight uphill and is one final, nasty, deciding test - 1.5kms at 5.6% with a left hand turn 100m from the line. Go too early and you could be caught late like Rodriguez in 2013 or Pozzo and Caruso in 2014. It can pay to attack it like Martin in 2013, it can pay to sit on the wheels and wait for the last 200m like Gerrans in 2014 and Valverde in 2015 and 2017. 

The Weather

The forecast for this year's race is for it to be a beautiful, warm day, hitting temperatures of up to 22 degrees, with no rain and little or no wind.. so no excuses for anyone, except for maybe Tim Wellens.. The wind might be a slightly in their faces coming up the final hill, but at only 5-6mph it isn't too strong at all. 

Contenders and Favourites

Short and snappy for some of the names in this preview,, just trying something different.. Going down in odds order, a look at their chances.. 

Alejandro Valverde - was 7/4 before Fleche, he's now as big as 5/2 after failing to win on his hill. Impressive winner last year, impressive looking for most of FW until bad positioning saw him struggle to get to Alaphilippe. But why was he badly positioned? Well the other teams had done a number on him and Movistar, making them work their asses off for a long time, and he was quite often in the wind near the front as the chase was on. Did he show signs of fallibility for once? Was it just a temporary blip or a chink in his armour the others will try to exploit again on Sunday? 

I think that Sunday is going to be fast and furious again and the other teams are going to ensure he doesn't get an easy ride. But maybe Movistar don't have to control things as much now, the pressure might be off a little and it might be over to the likes of QSF to try to control things for their man in form Alaphilippe. If so, and Valverde gets a softer run to the last 2kms, then watch out.. 

Julian Alaphilippe - 6/1 before FW, 9/2 best price now following his success. He was excellent on Wednesday, just so strong to pull away like he did and then kick again when Valverde was just about to catch him. QSF played it very smart though, with Schachmann up the road, posing a real threat, Alaphilippe had an easy ride. He has been in excellent form all season, bar getting burned out on the hard final stage of Itzulia, but there are no long climbs like he faced that day here. Big player again, he should be right up there with the leaders as they hit the 1km to go mark, but can he attack away like Dan Martin has done in the QS blue in the past? Or if it comes down to a select sprint, can he win? It will be tough, but he's very capable of it. But 9/2 now puts me off him, it's just a little short.

Tim Wellens - 12/1 before and after FW, he didn't really do anything there to suggest he'll be riding away with this on Sunday. He just looked to be under pressure for most of the last 30kms or so of Amstel, and never looked like he was going to be capable of riding away. He also just followed wheels in FW, he never really made any moves and just punched on to take 7th. I don't think he'll get away on his own Sunday and they're will be too many who are better than him on a finish like this to back him at just 12/1

Dan Martin - 12/1 before getting dropped in FW, best price 30/1 now with those cowboys at Unibet, but he is 25/1 at Bet365. On the face of it, it looked bad that he was dropped second time up the Mur on Wednesday, but according to his twitter account he was held up by a crash.. He said on Twitter "didn't crash, so not all bad and in top condition to try again on Sunday. Lady Luck will shine on us soon"..

So what do we make of that? Well if it was really a crash held him up and he is indeed in 'top condition', then the 25/1 on him with Bet365 might look like an incredible bet come Sunday evening if he storms up the hill like he has done so many times before. His price has doubled because of a bit of bad luck, for one of his favourite races of the year.. I had my reservations about him on Wednesday, I stayed well clear.

I was going to avoid him again Sunday, but based on what he said it reminds me of this race a few years ago when he abandoned FW on the Wednesday because of knee pain, and the bookies pushed him out to 50/1 for LBL.. I took a gamble on him at that price and then he tweeted a few days later that his knee was fine and it was 'all systems go for Liege' and his price tumbled back down to 8/1.. That was 2014, the year he came around the final bend leading, I was screaming at the TV and then he came crashing down to earth.. Luckily I had a big bet on Simon Gerrans at 25/1 who took advantage of Martin's misfortune.. So I feel I have to have a bet on him at 25/1, it's just too big to ignore, no matter how poor he has been in recent races.. 

Michal Kwiatkowski - 12/1 before FW, now around 18/1.. After a disappointing Amstel, he followed that up with an even more disappointing FW, where he was out of the race a long way from home too and came home on his own in 57th, 7'37" down. He just doesn't look himself at the moment to me and I don't think this finish is one for him. 

Vincenzo Nibali - 16/1 before Liege, 14/1 best price now.. he lit up the race with an audacious attack from afar, causing consternation amongst the chasers, and blew up Movistar in the process. He pressed on with Jack Haig, but interestingly, Haig left him behind and pressed on.. I think Nibali was using Wednesday as preparation for Sunday, I wouldn't be surprised to see him attack again on some of the hills out on the course, maybe on the Redoute or the Roche aux Facons.

But will he be able to hold off this lot? It will be very hard.. Movistar, UAE, QSF, Lotto Soudal, Sky.. they'll all be chasing hard, unless they have team-mates who went with him up the road. And he might hold a slender lead coming in to the last kilometre, but that will quickly disappear. A valiant effort, but possibly just good training for the Dauphiné or the Tour!

Dylan Teuns - 20/1 before FW, twice that price now at 40/1. I wasn't interested at 20/1, and I'm not interested at 40/1.. He still has a lot of improving to do I think to be challenging in a race like this. 

Philippe Gilbert - 40/1 - has all but ruled himself out of this race himself this week, but I didn't give him a chance any way. 

Michael Matthews - 33/1 before FW, a price that I am gutted I didn't take on Wednesday afternoon around 4.30pm.. He was awesome in FW to finish 5th, what was a sprinter doing finishing 5th on a hill like that? Well Matthews has shown us now several times that he is no ordinary sprinter and can mix it with the puncheurs over short hills like this. He really impressed me and I think he has a massive chance of being in the mix on Sunday afternoon. I did take 22/1 with Paddy Power on Thursday afternoon, but he's only 16/1 best price now.. I still think that's worth taking. 

He has a good team with him here, with Dumoulin, Geschke, Oomen and Chad Haga, and he has shown lately in both Amstel, where he finished 24th and FW that he has good climbing legs at the moment. I think he is in a similar sort of mould to his compatriot Simon Gerrans when he won this in 2014, a punchy powerhouse who can doggedly stick in there and then come with a powerful sprint on the flat finish if there's a small group comes to the line together. But that's the challenge, coming to the last bend in contention.. If he does, he probably wins. But take the 16/1 with Skybet paying 4 places in case there are a few get away. 

Tiesj Benoot - 33/1 before FW, 50/1 now, he hasn't impressed me enough lately to suggest he'll be a contender here. 

Tom Dumoulin - 33/1 - now this is an interesting one.. great rider, but probably training for his Giro defence.. He hasn't pinned on a race number since MSR over a month ago, he has been training for Italy, and you'd have to think he'll do some pulling for Matthews (hopefully) but it's hard to see him placing in this. 

Michael Valgren - 33/1 before FW - Backed in from 100/1 a week ago to 33/1 for this on Thursday, but now there's some 66/1 available with Skybet paying 4. Wwhat a season Valgren is having with a win in a cobbled Classic in OHN and a win in an 'Ardennes' Classic in Amstel Gold last weekend. Both done in similar fashion, loitering stealthily at the back before unleashing a powerful late attack. both time though it was with flat finishes, how will he fare when it comes to trying to hold off a charging peloton of climbers if he does manage to get a small lead coming in to the final hill? 

Well he looked very comfortable on the hills in Amstel, when a lot of other supposed climbers and strong men were going out the back door.. His power could see him grind his way to victory if he has a lead hitting the last kilometre. And guess who was the winner of the LBL Espoirs race back in 2012 and 2013? Yep, Michael Valgren.. in 2013 he had Nathan Browne and Jasper Stuyven in 2nd and 3rd, with Dylan Teuns and Edward Theuns in 5th and 6th, Tiesj Benoot in 8th and Adam Yates in 12th.

In the senior ranks, he DNF'ed his first two but finished 14th in 2016 and didn't race last year after his horrible face-plant crash in FW on the Wednesday. He surely won't be let just slide off the front again after his two wins this year, but don't count it out as they all watch Valverde.. 4 places at 66/1 is too tempting for a guy who's going so well, has a great record on this course and is in a team that just can't stop winning. 

Jacob Fuglsang - backed in from 66/1 to 25/1 this week after powerful performances in Amstel and FW, he was a big part in the victory of Michael Valgren, stretching things out, chasing riders down, pushing hard at the front, then sitting in when he flew. He was looking very strong and has been saying he's really looking forward to this race as it suits him the best. 15th last year, 9th in 2015, he goes ok here and seems to be in such great form (like the whole Astana squad) that he is bound to be right up there with the favourites as they hit the last 5kms. Is he good enough to get away on his own to ride to victory? Maybe not.. and he won't win a sprint against too many, but it will be exciting to watch him and Valgren go at it again probably. 

Romain Bardet - 40/1 before FW, 33/1 now.. Great ride in FW to finish 9th, following up on a great 2nd place in the Tour du Finestére four days before it, he's in pretty good shape at the moment.. Add in his epic ride in Strade Bianche and you'll see that Bardet has to be considered a dark horse for a race like this with so much climbing. His results here in the last five years reads 6th, 13th, 6th, 10th, 13th and not only that, but in 2011, when an Espoirs, he finished 2nd here behind Tosh Van Der Sande. I think he's a solid shout for a top 10 again, but more likely to be in the 6th to 10th bracket rather than higher. 

Rui Costa - 40/1 - he's shown glimpses of good form recently and has been prominent at the front in FW and Amstel, but faded when it mattered most. He has finished 3rd and 4th here in 2016 and 2015 though, so he knows what's required in a race like this, so expect him to be featuring in the latter stages again.. but I can't see him in the top 4 this time around.  

Ion Izagirre - 50/1 -  it will take exceptional circumstances for him to win this I think 

Michael Albasini - 50/1 - I thought he might go ok on Wednesday, he didn't even finish. Summed up my FW.. I'm not touching him for this now, lesson learned, he's not in good form after all. 

Sergio Luis Henao - 50/1 - can't see him riding away with this. 

Mikel Landa - 66/1 - nope, will be working for Valverde probably, he won't ride away from these guys on the final hill and if he comes up against any other rider at the finish he'll be outsprinted.. 

Woet Poels - 80/1 - shock winner of this a few years back, I don't think he has shown anything close to good enough form to win this lately. He came home nearly 10 mins down in FW on Wednesday, he was never at the races, and he was DNF at Amstel. 

Bob Jungels - 100/1 - not sprightly enough to hold anyone off on this final hill, unless he has 2 mins coming in to the last 2kms.

Davide Formolo - 125/1 - valiant effort last year in the finale of this race, he made it exciting up until about 1km to go when you knew his brave effort was about to come to nought. He's now with Bora, but his performances this year have been pretty average to say the least, hard to see him pull off anything like last year. 

Daryl Impey - 250/1 - why not? Let's give him another go, 250/1 is too big to not have a few pennies on. He could be like Matthews, if he can hang on, he'd have a chance at the sprint. 

Others to watch - Lilian Calmejane at 150/1, Alessandro de Marchi at 150/1, Enrico Gasparotto at 50/1, Tanel Kangert at 80/1 and Enric Mas at 200/1. 

And there we have it. Valverde may well take it again, but could we be seeing a passing of the guard from Valverde to one of his younger apprentices? Can Alaphilippe do what Valverde did last year and follow up FW with a victory in La Doyenne? It's very possible.. But I like Matthews chances of hanging in there, Dan Martin's chances of performing another lazarus recovery from FW to LBL and Valgren could well carry on his great season with a powerful late attack again.  

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Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Michael Matthews at 16/1 with Skybet paying 4

0.5pts e/w on Dan Martin at 25/1 with Bet365

0.5pts e/w on Michael Valgren at 66/1 with Skybet paying 4

0.2pts e/w on Daryl Impey at 250/1 with Bet365

Matchbets 

Martin to beat Albasini and Bardet to beat Mollema - 3pts at evens

Vanendert to beat Henao and Matthews to beat Kwiat - 2pts at 1.4/1

Gasparotto to beat Gilbert - 3pts at evens

Costa to beat Uran and Wellens to beat Teuns - 2pts at 5/4

Impey to beat McCarthy - 2pts at 11/10 - all with 365

Here are my top ten riders to watch in Liege-Bastogne-Liege for this week's Zweeler fantasy cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

1 Julian Alaphilippe

2 Dan Martin

3 Alejandro Valverde

4 Michael Matthews

5 Jelle Vanendert

6 Michal Kwiatkowski 

7 Michael Valgren

8 Jacob Fuglsang

9 Tim Wellens

10 Romain Bardet

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