Details

Published on Friday, 13 April 2018 20:43

La Flèche Wallone

Seraing to Mur de Huy

Wed. 18th April, 198.5kms

We move on to the famous climb of the 'Wall of Huy' in La Flèche Wallone Wednesday, or the 'Mur de Valverde' as it could soon be known. It's a very different finish to the AGR with the finish line at the top of an extremely steep climb, where only the punchiest of riders have a chance. 

Alejandro Valverde has bossed this race in recent years and is going to try to extend his record five wins to an incredible six, having taken this race for the last four years running and also in 2006. He was level on three wins with Davide Rebellin ('09, '07, '04) and Merckx, Argentin and Kint coming in to the 2016 race, but blew them out of the record books in style with a comfortable win over Alaphilippe and Martin. His record of five wins may never be surpassed, six would be impossible to beat you'd have to think.

First run in 1936, the Fleche, or the 'Arrow' missed just one edition during the war in 1940, rather incredibly carrying on during the other years while war raged in Europe. The race is of course dominated by the finish up the famous Mur de Huy, a horrible finish to a tough race. The Mur is 1.3kms long at an average of 9.3%, but it is really steep in parts, particularly on the inside of some bends, hitting over 24% in places. Go too early and you get swamped by the late finishers. Valverde seems to time it perfectly every year, he has it down to an art form.

But there's a lot more to the race than just the finishing dash up the Mur. Not only do they climb it twice already during the race, but as they criss-cross between the provinces of Namur and Liege they hit a bunch of other Côtes along the way. 

The event was first run on roads from Tournai to Liège, growing from 236km to 300km - its longest ever distance - in 1938, and the route has changed venues and distances many times over the years. Again this year there is a major change to the route with it being 6.5kms shorter at 198kms and starting in Seraing just north of Liege instead of Binche last year. 

A quick look back at Amstel Gold race.. A great win for 33/1 shot Michael Valgren, once again taking advantage of his relative anonymity and reluctance of a group of favourites to chase someone they don't see as a direct rival. He struck at just the right moment like he did in OHN and now has two spring Classics to his name, as well as 4th in the Ronde, as superb campaign for him. When will they start to treat him as a genuine threat and not let him get away like this? Maybe after this weekend, there was finally an Amstel Gold waiting for Valverde, and the wheelsucker threw it away with his Mexican standoff against Sagan. 

The only one that responded to it and was let go, possibly by his old team-mate and pal Sagan, was 66/1 shot Romain Kreuziger and he worked with Valgren to take it to a two-man sprint, but was no match for the Dane. Dual former winner Enrico Gasparotto continues to defy father time also, chasing the front two home in 3rd.. he couldn't quite make the bridge, but was full of smiles and congratulations for Valgren at the finish line, he looked genuinely happy for Vagren, the man he beat in a two-up finish in 2016. Sagan came home in 4th, beating Valverde in the sprint, with our man Wellens in 6th and Alaphilippe in 7th, GVA was also disappointing, coming home in 14th, well off the winners. 

It was a bit of an anti-climax to the race, none of the favourites came out of the race with much credit, Sagan was best, but Kwiat and Gilbert were really poor, Alap looked good at times but tired towards the end and could only follow and Valverde was waiting for someone to tow him to the line and it didn't happen. We were unlucky with Impey I think, he finished 11th, he tried his best to get with the lead group after just missing out when the key split came, but just couldn't bridge. 

Bets wise, nothing on the win markets, Colbrelli was disappointing to fall out of it as quick as he did and Wellens looked good but didn't have the legs to make a trademark attack count against guys of this calibre. The matchbets saved the day though, with only the final leg of the final double losing, Canola being beaten by Sbaragli. A small profit of 1.3pts though, so we carry on to the next event!

The Route

There's yet another major change of direction to the race this year, as they are starting in Seraing, to the north-west of Liege and head south on to a circuit that takes them south-east of Liege. After 65kms they hit the first climb of the day, the Cote de la Vecquée. 17kms later they go over the famous Cote de la Redoute and 18kms later the Cote de Mont. Shortly after they head back over some of the road they came down earlier in the race and carry on west towards Amey. 

With 126kms gone they go over the Cote d'Amay and shortly after turn south towards the finish in Huy. They enter the finishing circuit after 135.8kms and pass over the finish line for the first time after 140.5kms. Don't expect any fireworks first time up, but it could trigger some attacks by those eager to try their luck from a little further out.

From here on in the finishing circuit is familiar, and like last year, they hit the C ôte d'Ereffe (2.2kms at 5.9%) as they head out on the circuit, followed quickly after by the Cote de Cherave (1.3kms at 8.1%) and back over the Mur de Huy again to start a final lap of the same circuit. of 35kms before the  charge to the bottom of the Mur for the last, frantic charge up the hill. 

Contenders and Favourites

Alejandro Valverde wins eh? Probably.. I won't spend much time talking about the five-time winner of this race, we all know how good he is here and how hard it is to beat him. As long as he's in the first 10 hitting the steepest part of the Mur, he probaby wins. What can stop him? A crash. An illness. A puncture. Getting blocked in. Someone on an incredibly good day. The thing about Valverde too though is that even if you get a little gap on him on the steepest part, as someone like Dan Martin possibly can do, he comes back at you on the last, flatter 100m or so. 

What about any of his rivals? Who can possibly get close to him? Well in the absence of Alaphilippe last year, Dan Martin took up the mantle again for QS, and came close, finishing 2nd for the second time in this race. He's also finished 3rd, 4th and 6th in this race in the past, he has the punchy climbing skills to be right up there at the end.. But sometimes, in typical Dan fashion, he makes it hard for himself with terrible positioning coming in to the decisive part and he has to come from a long way back. He did it again last year as you can see in the video below, he was around 15th, behind a wall of riders with only about 300m to go and had to fight his way past them all, eventually finishing 2nd. 

The problem with Dan again this year is that a) he has a pretty poor team around him. Ok, he has Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi with him, but Costa won't be of much help to him on a finish like this and Ulissi was nowhere to be seen in Amstel. And not only that, but Martin is not really showing any good form at all this year so far, he didn't even finish Amstel. His best result this year was 4th in a stage in the Algarve and other than that he's been miles off the pace. 

But we know he loves this hill, and in the absence of a wide range of alternatives, the 11/1 on him with Bet365 offers some appeal.. but I think he just isn't in the form to be fighting for the win, and I'd rather watch how he gets on here and reassess his chances for LBL next weekend on th back of it.

Second favourite for the race though is his former team-mate, and the man who had to miss last year's race due to injury, Julian Alaphilippe. Alaphilippe also likes a finish like this and is very much in the same sort of mould as Dan Martin. 2nd here twice, two years running in 2015 and 2016, he beat his team-mate Dan in 2016 and held off Albasini for 2nd the year before when Dan, who was with Cannondale at the time, had crashed out. 

At least Alaphilippe is showing some good form, he looked good, if under pressure at times at Amstel, and took 7th in the end, but he also went very well in Itzulia a few weeks back, winning two stages in a row at the start, beating Roglic on both occassions on the hilly finishes. He was in the yellow jersey until losing it in the ITT on stage 4, then slipped from 2nd to 4th on stage 5 but collapsed on the tough final stage and slid way down to 35th in the GC.

But this one day race is much more up his street, and with Serry, Gilbert, Mas and Jungels, Alaphilippe should be looked after well all day and should be in a good position to try something in the final 500m. He's just 4/1, but he does look like a 'bet to nothing', he's a very strong shout for a podium spot. 

Dylan Teuns came out the pack last year looking good in the last 200m, he was the first to try to chase after Valverde when he went.. But like all the rest, he was unable to stay with Valverde's insane pace at the top of the hill. He was almost swamped as they hit the line, Dan Martin passed him, but he just held off Henao and Albasini to take the 3rd spot on the podium. He had finished 13th in 2015 when just 23, so he does seem to go well on this hill.

Also, he showed his legs in St 7 of Paris Nice chasing home Simon Yates on the finish to Valdeblore, then came to the fore on the final hill in DBP last week, finishing last of the group of 6 that chased Wellens home. He should go close again, but that is his weakness - he can't really sprint.. so he might get swamped by some of the stronger, later finishers like Martin and Albasini again. 

Chasing home Alaphilippe in the first two stages of Itzulia was Primus Roglic, and the LottoNL man comes here on the back of a fine win in that race, sealed with victory in the ITT on stage 4. He finished 2nd 3 times in stages in total in the race and 9th in another, showing just how strong he was. He also won a fine stage in Tirreno, on the uphill finish to Trevi, finishing ahead of A Yates, Benoot, Thomas,  Uran and Landa..

It was a brilliant, powerful finish from Roglic, he attacked with 1.2kms to go of the steep climb, got a very healthy gap quickly, and as they came at him in the closing 500m he surged again and held them all at bay. It is a very similar sort of finish to this one and I think it was a great prep race for Primus for this climb, and I like the 20/1 about him with Bet365. The only thing stopping me from backing him is the fact that he's not on the startlist at the moment! But if he starts, it's a good price, if he doesn't we get stakes back. 

Sergio Luis Henao will have his e/w backers at a tempting 33/1, he's come close in the past as we saw, 2nd in 2013,  4th in 2017 and 7th in 2015. He has the climbing punch, but like Teuns, he tends to run out of momentum on the flatter run to the line. His form has been mixed, but nothing spectacular this year, all his best results were at home in Colombia where he took the national road race title in February. He is sure to be there or thereabouts though, but can he hold off Alap and Martin to take a podium spot? Not sure.. 

And he's joined by Michal Kwiatkowski who had a bad day at Amstel, but he has finished 3rd ('14), 5th ('15) and 7th ('17) here in the past. He was on Henao's wheel last year with 300m to go, but couldn't go with the leaders, Dan Martin came past him and he couldn't jump on his wheel and then Barguil and Albasini came past him on the line as he faded. Can we see him improve on that result this year? I don't think so.. but he might be good for a top 10. And what about Egan Bernal? It looks like he might be riding it, but no bookie is quoting him at the moment.. so not a lot we can do about him for now.. 

Philippe Gilbert and Alexis Vuillermoz will be prominent starting the Mur, but I don't think they have the kick to go with these guys really. David Gaudu was a bit of a surprise package last year, attacking with 250m to go, Valverde was the first to respond and surged past him 50m later. He held on for 9th in the end. He's still only 21, he'll have learned from this last year, but it's hard to see him troubling the podium again this year.. maybe in a few years' time. 

I've backed Michael Woods a few times in the past after getting good words about him, but he just cannot deliver when it matters it seems, I'm leaving him. Michael Albasini though looks very big at 50/1, especially for a man with the record he has here. He has finished 2nd, 3rd and in the top 11 on 8 of the 9 times he has ridden this race, he's almost always top 10. He's getting on a bit, he's not been in great form this year, but at 50/1 he's worth a few pence each-way, he's only 22/1 with Paddy Power.. Yeah, remember Paddy Power? They actually have odds for a race, believe it or not. 

Hard to see Warren Barguil getting closer than he did last time around, Tim Wellens could go for a long one again, but doesn't have the sharp acceleration of Valverde, Alap or Martin and Romain Bardet, Mikel Landa, Jelle Vanendert, Marc Soler and Jacob Fuglsang are riders in form, but will find this finish a bit too steep possibly. I'm intrigued to see how Bardet goes though, he's one I like for LBL on Sunday too. Adam Yates and Simon Yates are 50s and 40s to win, but are not scheduled to ride it either.. 

So it's going to be the Valverde show once again, it's a very rare occassion you see a rider go off for a road stage at odds as short as 8/13 (8/11 on Betfair) but he looks nailed on once again, and I can't put you off backing him at 8/11 on Betfair if you want to take the short odds on him. And there's not a whole lot of confidence in any of those behind them either, I'm a little like with Amstel, I don't really like too many of them at all and there could be a bike length between 2nd to 6th.. But Albasini at 50/1 appeals for now, if Roglic rides I'm happy with my 20/1. I might update it again tomorrow night once we get a more confirmed start list. 

Update - 17/4/2018, 21:00: So, as expected, there's no Roglic, so scratching him from my bets. I still can't really see any of these guys beating Valverde and the 10/11 that's available on Betfair on him is actually appealing to me. He will be there at the front heading in to the final 500m and will accelerate away again to victory. Martin doesn't seem to have the form, Tuens doesn't seem good enough and Alaphilippe doesn't look capable of outpsrinting him either so the 4/1 on him doesn't appeal as much.

Wellens might take off on a flyer on the run-in to the Mur, or possibly Bob Jungels like last year, but once they hit that final hill they'll be reeled in, unless they have more than 30" lead hitting 1km to go. And none of the others really appeal either.. Carlos Betancur might be there or thereabouts if anything happens to Bala, Sergio Henao is probably good enough for a top 10, but is he good enough to outsprint Bala and Alap? I don't think so. It will be interesting to see how Enric Mas, Romain Bardet and Michael Woods go, but it looks like it's all about Valverde again, and possibly the first leg of a double double for him again. 

Recommendations: 

0.3pts e/w on Michael Albasini at 50/1 with Bet365

4pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 10/11 on Betfair

Matchbets

Ion to beat Gorka and Vanendert to beat de Tier - 2pts at 1.3/1 

Barguil to beat Woods - 2pts at 11/8

Latour to beat Costa - 2pts at 4/6

Add Bardet to beat Kreuziger - 2pts on the double at 15/8