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Published on Tuesday, 19 April 2016 12:43

La Flèche Wallone

Marche-en-Famenne to Mur de Huy

Wed. 20th April, 196kms

After a dramatic Amstel Gold Race on Sunday we move on to the famous climb of the 'Wall of Huy' in La Flèche Wallone on Wednesday. It's a very different finish to the AGR with the finish line at the top of an extremely steep climb, where only the punchiest of riders have a chance. No sprinters win this race..

It was a very strange AGR on Sunday, lots of the favourites falling by the wayside early on, none earlier than Fabio Felline who managed to crash in the neutral zone and broke his nose. Not a great start to the day for matchbets with him. Michal Kwiatkowski, who had recieved 35% of the votes in my Twitter poll and was a strong favourite to win on the day suddenly was off the back with more than 20kms still to go after they went up the Cauberg for the 2nd time.. Rodriguez crashed, Gilbert was also dropped (that one I wasn't too surprised with) and all the riders up front looked absolutely shattered. I spoke with a pro who rode it after the race and he said that they were all frozen - the hail had caught them unawares and a lot of riders suffered in the cold.

The finish was strange too - Wellens got a gap, with his trademark late attack but the peloton looked confident they'd reel him in, which they did at the bottom of the Cauberg. But there was no counter from any of the 'favourites' - no one seemed to have the legs to do a Gilbert/Sanchez/Matthews from the bottom of the climb. Vakoc suddenly appeared at the front after spending the whole day dangling at the back of the bunch and I thought he would kick on like he did in DBP, but no, he just weaved left and right waiting for someone else to go. Gasparotto went, only Valgren reacted and suddenly they had a gap. But still it looked catchable - with 1km to go they could almost touch the guys out front. But no one could take up the chase - those that went to the front weren't as strong as Valgren clearly and suddenly with 500m to go, the race was over. 

The most frustrating thing was that Bryan Coquard, who I had not seen for almost all of the last 20kms, and wasn't even sure he was still with the lead group, suddenly burst out of the pack and took 4th place. I didn't even see it live as he was hidden behind Colbrelli, incredibly busting the match bet. 4th at 28/1 for those of you who backed him with the bookies paying four places saved the day, really hard luck on those who took him with those only paying 3 places. Once again though he beat Matthews in the sprint, so I'm happy with my pick, not many gave him a chance, and happy I let Matthews, Kwiatkowski, Gilbert and Gerrans alone. Coquard is a rider I think I'll be backing a lot this year, I really like him.

OGE looked a mess on Sunday, which is unlike them, maybe the infighting between Matthews and Gerrans has boiled over - Gerrans should have been working his ass off up the Cauberg for Matthews, he was nowhere to be seen. They also burned out too many men too early, they should have left some of the other teams do some of the grunt work out on the course. Matthews had no one to help him once they hit the Cauberg and no one else wanted to tow Matthews to the line. And the 'we were a great team, great effort' protestations from OGE sound hollow to me and sound like they doth protest too much.. Costa was right there at the bottom of the Cauberg but decided to sit in too, then was boxed in in the sprint and came outside the top 10. 

Alejandro Valverde has bossed this race in recent years and is going for the record four wins after winning it previously in 2015, 2014 and 2006. He's level on three wins with Davide Rebellin ('09, '07, '04) and Merckx, Argentin and Kint so it would be a pretty prestigious record to take. 

It was a race that was littered with crashes last year, with Chris Froome being taken out with just 11kms to go, an unfortunate incident as it would have been interesting to see how he'd have gone given he finished 2nd in the TDF stage just a few months later. Philippe Gilbert crashed out as did Dan Martin and many others. As they approached the final kilometres, Tim Wellens, roared on by the home crowd, got away and held a 14" gap going under the Flamme Rouge, but was reeled in on the steep slopes by the surging pack. 

Rui Costa and Tom-Jelte Slagter led them in to the last 500m as the riders fanned out across the road. Valverde was perfectly positioned at the front with Albasini and kicked on with 200m to go. Alaphilippe came with them as Moreno and Rodriguez faded just behind them but Valverde was just too good, sprinting away to victory. Alexis Vuillermoz came from about 10th place with 150m to go to finish 6th, Kelderman doing the opposite. Sergio Henao was 7th with Fuglsang just behind him and Slagter 9th. They were all shattered at the end, the course proving harder than recent years. And this year has even more climbing again! 

First run in 1936, the Fleche, or the 'Arrow' missed just one edition during the war in 1940, rather incredibly carrying on during the other years while war raged in Europe. The race is of course dominated by the finish up the famous Mur de Huy, a horrible finish to a tough race. The Mur is 1.3kms long at an average of 9.3%, but it is really steep in parts, particularly on the inside of some bends, hitting over 24% in places. Go too early and you get swamped by the late finishers. Valverde seems to time it perfectly every year, two years ago bursting past Dan Martin, and last year accelerating away at just the right time. Same with Betancur and Gilbert in 2013, who were passed by Dani Moreno's late burst.

Valverde didn't get it right though in the Tour de France stage up the Huy last year, he was caught too far back as Movistar were protecting Quintana's interests and he finished 11th, Joaquim Rodriguez with an old-school attack from him winning it in style from surprise runner-up Chris Froome and Alexis Vuillermoz. Vuillermoz came very late and fast, Tony Gallopin had started too early and faded.. Dan Martin also came fast, but too late too, he took 4th on the day, the third time he has finished in the top 6 on this climb, but he has also had two DNFs in recent years thanks to crashes, last year's being particularly frustrating as he was one of the favourites for the win.

But there's a lot more to the race than just the finishing dash up the Mur. Not only do they climb it twice already during the race, but as they criss-cross between the provinces of Namur and Liege they hit a bunch of other Côtes along the way. 

The event was first run on roads from Tournai to Liège, growing from 236km to 300km - its longest ever distance - in 1938, and the route has changed venues and distances many times over the years. Again this year there is another change to the route with it being nearly 10kms shorter and starting in Marche en Fammene south of Huy, rather than in Waremme way up in the north last year. 

There have been four riders who have won this race three times including Valverde, Eddy Merckx, Moreno Argentin and Davide Rebellin. Alejandro Valverde and Davide Rebellin take to the start again this year going for a record breaking fourth win but there is also previous winners Moreno ('13), Rodriguez ('12) and Gilbert ('11) starting.   

The Route

There's a major change of direction to the race this year, as they now start in March en Famenne, south of the finishing circuit instead of Waremme last year which was to the north of Huy. The opening 15kms sees them head south-west first before looping back north and after 60kms they arrive on to the finishing circuits at Ohey.

They hit the first climb of the day, the  Côte de Bellaire after 67kms, 25kms earlier than last year. It's a kilometre long at 6.8% average - a nice warm up for what's to come. Next up is the C ôte de Bohisseau on the first passage after 74kms, a tough 7.6% average for 1.3kms and hits sections of over 13% in the first 200m. There's a new climb in the race this year, the C ôte de Solières, which they reach after 87kms - and it's quite a long one at 4.3kms, but averages just 4%, one of the easier climbs of the day. Just 14kms later they go over  the finish line for the first time on the top of the Mur de Huy.

Don't expect any fireworks first time up, but it could trigger some attacks by those eager to try their luck from a little further out. Like last year, j ust 13kms later they hit the C ôte d'Ereffe (2.2kms at 5.9%) as they head out on the second circuit. They continue to head south-west as far as Ohey again where they start back on the same road they passed 58kms before. Once more over the Bellaire, Bohisseau, the Solières and the Mur before starting on the smaller final circuit.

Like last year, shortly after the C ôte d'Ereffe they cut right with 13kms to go and head back to Huy where they take a slight detour off the original route to head over the C ôte de Cherave with just 5.5kms to go. Then it's the charge to the bottom of the Mur for the last, frantic charge up the hill. 

Contenders and Favourites

Alejandro Valverde - can anyone stop him? It's short at 9/4 best price, as short as 7/4, but he looks the most likely winner on paper - but then again so did Cancellara for Paris-Roubaix and Matthews for Amstel Gold.. It doesn't always work out as you'd expect it to eh! But he is supreme on this climb, he times it brilliantly and that kick with 300m to go is devastating - few can go with him, and when he kicks again as they hit the flatter slopes when everyone is in the red, he just extends his lead.

He comes here after a good warm-up in Vuelta Castilla Y Leon, winning two stages and taking the overall, the Points jersey and 2nd in the KOM competition, and that was also apparently after he tried to nurse Betancur home who was in the leader's jersey. He skipped Amstel Gold and that could have been something he'll regret seeing as how it panned out, he could have been one to go after Gasparotto, or maybe it was just as well he missed it, as he'd have been scrapping for 3rd place in a sprint he'd proabably have lost to the faster guys. As long as Movistar deliver him to the last kilometre in a good position I think he'll be very hard to beat. Ok, he's a year older and some of the younger guys are closing the gap on him, but they have their issues too.

Will this finally be the year that Dan Martin gets it right up the Mur? He has come close several times in the past and looks made for the steep gradients. He has had a very mixed start to the season though and has been going well alternated with sickness that has seen him struggle in Oman and abandon Pais Vasco when over 20 minutes down. He comes here as part of a two-prong attack for Etixx-Quickstep, but it's not really a climb for teams to try to pull a 1-2, it really is every man for himself inside that last 500m. It's unlikely we will see either of them strike early with maybe 5-600m to go, if they think they have any chance they will need to hold it until around 300m to go, or when Valverde goes, whichever happens first.

Martin has struggled to go with Valverde in the past though, he may struggle to do so again this year what with his illness he had in Pais Vasco. He will need to be on top form to win this and I'm not sure he will be, it could be that it's a good pipe-opener for Liege on Sunday, a race he holds far greater affection for and probably has a better chance of winning. Julian Alaphilippe has had a tough start to the year too following his mononeucleosis issues, but seemed to be coming back in to form at the right time with a decent ride in DBP.

A spectacular 2nd last year in this race, it really announced him to the world as a rising star, together with his ride in LBL just a few days later. He finished 6th in Amstel Gold on Sunday, a result that was almost overlooked and forgotten about, there wasn't a lot of fanfare for the bunch who let the race slip from their grasp. Last year he came late and fast in the TDF, he'll need to be better positioned and pounce earlier this year maybe to try to take the win. It could be that we see Martin working for Alaphilippe and he returning the favour on Sunday, but at just 7/1 for Martin and 14/1 for Alaphilippe I'm not that tempted.   

Sergio Luis Henao represents Sky's best chance here, as Froome skips the race again. The diminutive Spaniard finished down in 7th place last year, failing to go with the big hitters when they struck for home, he came home with the group given a time 4" behind Valverde. But there were excuses for that, he was just coming back from his knee injury he suffered and was lacking racing miles. He has finished 2nd here in 2013 too, so is capable of a decent showing on this climb.He looked strong in Pais Vasco, probably the strongest climber there and was unlucky to lose out to Contador in the final TT. He sometimes lacks the positional ability and the kick of Valverde, but if he can be in the right place with 400m to go he has a chance. He is 8/1 in places and that might be an ok each-way bet, I think he could be close this year, and if Valverde and the Etixx boys are on a bad day, he could just land it. 

Movistar have a back-up plan too in case anything should happen to Valverde, Dani Moreno is fancied too to put in a big showing on this hill, he won this race after all just 3 years ago, ahead of Henao, Betancur and Martin with Valverde down in 7th. Moreno is riding ok at the moment, but lacks the kick of 2013 to me and I don't think, even if Valverde was not there at the finish, he'll be winning this and he doesn't appeal to me at 16/1.

nd speaking of Carlos Betancur, he stunned us, one and all, it is fair to say with his victory in the first stage of Castilla Y Leon, his first win in 761 days, more than two years! The images we are seeing of him now are of a gaunt, slim figure, a far cry from the bloated, fat pictures of him doing the rounds at the start of the season (right). He might go well here again, but I think he might actually have a better chance of a big ride in LBL on Sunday and I took some 200/1 for a fun interest when he won last week. He did fade on the final stage, but that is to be expected in his first hard race back, but he should ccome on for it and a good training ride here on Wednesday might give him a slim chance on Sunday. 

Michael Albasini is another of the old guard who went very well here last year, almost winning it, but just wasn't able to go with Valverde. He too goes incredibly well on this climb, having finished 2nd, 3rd, 7th twice, 9th, 10th and 11th over the years here. He has a fantastic knack of positioning himself in the right place through the lower part of the climb and then pounces with 250 or so to go. He has been working hard for team-mates lately and this is one of the few races in the year that he can really say is perfectly suited to him (that and any stage in Switzerland!) so OGE should get behind him again. They have lots of big engines in the team to get him to the bottom safely, and Adam Yates can help him get in the right spot. 16/1 is a bit tight, but Boyles are paying four places and that might be worth a nibble. If that plan fails for whatever reason, Adam Yates might be able to have a go himself. 

Tim Wellens will probably go down in glorious failure again with a late attack that gets reeled in on the Mur, Enrico Gasparotto will be a marked man after Sunday and I'm not sure he'll be pulling off a stunning double, he was 15th last year and has not finished any better than 11th here over the years. I was hoping to take him on in matchbets as there is a bit of Gaspa mania after his AGR win, but he's up against Teuns with PP, not a bet I'd take on. 

Jelle Vanendert goes well on this hill too, but hasn't been his old self at all lately and I think it would be a big shock to see him pulling away from everyone in the last 500m. Tom Jelte Slagter was fancied by some for AGR on Sunday, but I hear he suffered badly from the hail and cold and struggled after that, he was going well up until that point. I think he could well be a top 10 finisher here on Sunday again, but I think Cannondale might have a secret weapon here at a massive price. 

Philippe Gilbert suffered in Amstel Gold, which was to be expected after his training incident, he's as big as 100/1 for this and I still wouldn't back him despite that massive price. He hasn't got the punch of old and won't go with the faster guys. Joaquim Rodriguez is very short at just 10/1, he's as low as 7/1.. He used to be perfect for a finish like this, and won that stage in the TDF last year, but I don't think he's in the same form and then he went and crashed in AGR on Sunday and was in so much pain he was unable to finish the race. I think it's a bad bet to be taking 10/1 on Rodriguez with those concerns.. 

Michael 'Rusty' Woods wasn't even on the start list at first on Monday but I got word that he was going to be riding it and really fancies his chances. They are confident that if he can be delivered in to a good spot at the finish he can have a good shot at winning this. He lives for short, steep climbs like this and showed on Willunga Hill and Corkscrew Hill in the TDU what he is capable of. He was 300/1 with Bet365 and a few others, I've had a clip at that and they were running scared I'm afraid. There is still 300/1 with Sportingbet it seems, but otherwise take the 100/1 e/w with some of the others for a bit of fun.. if he's pulled in to position with 500m to go, it could get very exciting.

Bauke Mollema has gone ok here in the past but doesn't have the kick of the smaller guys, but he could take a top ten place because of his power. Peter Vakoc strikes me as being too big and heavy to be at the front here (although he's only 68kgs) and I think anyway they will be working to get Alap and Dan in to position. Woet Poels, Ulissi, Kreuziger - all should be close to top 20, but not top 3 I think. Louis Vervaeke at 200/1 and Floris de Tier at 325/1 with PP are two young guys who could go well here too. De Tier for Topsport was 9th on Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman, and was 12th in Brabantse Pijl and 21st in AGR, just behind Moreno who is 20 times a shorter price than him.

I think though that we'll see another Valverde masterclass on Wednesday afternoon and he should sprint away to stamp his name on the record books with his fourth win in the race. Even though I am pretty confident of the win, I'm not going big stakes though as anything can happen, and instead I'm scattering a few other bets around. I just know that I'd be kicking myself when Valverde wins and I wasn't on him after saying all of the above, so have to back him. If Rusty Woods manages to sneak on the podium I'll be pretty happy too! 

Recommendations: 

2pts at 9/4 on Alejandro Valverde with Ladbrokes, or try to get 5/2 on Betfair

0.5pts each-way on Sergio Henao at 8/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Michael Albasini at 16/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Michael Woods at 300/1 with Bet365 (take the 300/1 with Sportingbet or 100/1 with others)

0.2pts each-way on Floris de Tier at 325/1 with Paddy Power

Matchbets

Tom Jelte Slagter to beat Ulissi - 2pts at 4/6

Vanendert to beat Rosa, Albasini to beat Anton and Henao to beat Rodriguez - 2pts on the treble at 5/4

Barguil to beat Sanchez - 2pts at 5/6

Albasini to beat Alaphilippe - 1pt at 15/8 with PP

Dani Moreno to beat Rodriguez - 2pts at evens

Here are my top ten riders to watch in Fleche-Wallone for this week's Zweeler fantasy cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

1 Sergio Henao

2 Michael Albasini

3 Alejandro Valverde

4 Julian Alaphilippe

5 Michal Woods

6 Dan Martin

7 Dani Moreno

8 Jelle Vanendert

9 Tom Jelte Slagter

10 Bauke Mollema

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