Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne Preview

Sunday 2nd March,

The fun in Belgium comes at the double this weekend with the Omloop Het Niewsblad on Saturday followed by Kuurne-Brussles-Kuurne on Sunday. Some riders choose one over the other, but many partake in both races.   

Tom Boonen is down to race in both, and depending on what OPQS plans are for Saturday he may have more chance of success on Sunday in the KBK! More on that after we see the outcome of OHN. The favourite for the race is André Gréipel but there were reports coming out today that there was some illness in the Lotto-Belisol camp today and even Gréipel had the 'sniffles'. We'll have to wait and see how it will affect him but it may be enough to put me off backing him at the short price he is. 

It may be the poor relation of the Het Nieuwsblad but KBK can still provide exciting racing. It still contains some cobbled features such as the Kruisberg, Oude Kwaremont and the Cote de Trieu but as the last climb comes 50km from the finish the race often ends in a sprint finish. The last winner in 2012 (2013 was cancelled because of snow) was Mark Cavendish who beat Hutarovich with Démare just behind in 4th place (main pic above).

The year before that Hutarovich was beaten again by Chris Sutton, with Greipel in 3rd. 2010 though saw a very different race with Bobbie Traskel (who??!) beating Rick Flens and they were 2" ahead of Ian Stannard and the rest were literally coming in in ones and twos with 10th place Langeveld almost 6 minutes back.

The Route

 The race is a sort of oval loop that indeed leaves Kuurne, but doesn't actually make it as far as Brussels, instead, it gets as far as Voorde before taking an about turn and heading back down towards RVV and OHN country around Ronse where they take in the Kruisberg, Cote Du Trieu and Oude Kwaremont in quick succession. The Kwaremont is the longest climb of the day at 2.2km, but although it maxes out at 11.6% it averages only 4%. Expect attacks to be going here but it may come back together again shortly after.

But it's the Holstraat where anyone who has hopes of getting away might try to make a big final move. It comes with just 60km to go and at a kilometre at 5.2% (max of 12%) we could start to see some splits. 

As they head back up to Kuurne they go on a bit of a circuit race around the city, taking in 2 laps of a 16km circuit before a nice long sprint straight, the last 3km of which are dead flat. 

Overall Contenders and Favourites

A lot may hinge on two important things. Whether Greipel really is under the weather and how OPQS perform and execute their plan on Saturday. Lotto-Belisol could be either bluffing and playing down his chances, or not reporting as to how sick he really is and are hiding his possible weakness. If he is feeling under the weather then I am not going to be backing him at 2/1. On the other hand though, if he is feeling ok, then he is a very strong favourite for the race. 

Like OPQS, L-B have also started the year very well and Greipel in particular has been very powerful. The course shouldn't really hold him any fears given the form he is in, but then again the best he could manage in 2011 was 3rd behind Hutarovich and Sutton, not exactly the cream of sprinting talent. But his train is superb and this is on Belgian soil so expect his squad to do their best to control the race and set up the train at the end for Greipel to deliver. I think I will wait though and bet in play once I make a call on his well-being. 

Tom Boonen - what happens on Saturday will determine how he goes Sunday. If he takes it easy, maybe with an early tester on the Taaienberg say to thin things out and make the other teams work, helping set up Stybar or one of the other guys for later on, then he could come here with a serious shout. Winner in 2007 and 2009 and 4th in 2008, he knows clearly how to get his nose in front here. He's best priced 13/2, but again, it might be worth watching tomorrow's race and having a bet on KBK as the race unfolds. 

Second favourite though and one that interests me a lot is Arnaud Démare. Winner of stage 6 of the Tour of Qatar, beating Boonen who was 4th, Démare is a far better sprinter today than he was two years ago when he took 4th place. He has a decent team with him in Offredo (some people's fancy for OHN), Le Bon, Delage and Bonnet and he is a street-fighter who knows his way around a hectic finishing gallop as we saw on the Mall in the Surrey Classic last year. He is 6/1 with Paddy Power and that is a price I think that has a little value each-way as he has a strong chance of a top 3, and a good chance of winning.

Alexander Kristoff has also been going very well lately, winning superbly in that windy stage in Oman but this is a different game altogether. The only time he has entered this race, in 2012, he finished in 9th, well off the podium. I may be proved wrong but I think he will be outside the top 5 Sunday. 

Others to consider? Europecar have been non-existant this season as they are yet to get in to full swing, but in Bryan Coquard they have an outsider that could get on the podium. Multiple stage winner in the Etoile de Besseges over the last two years and a 3rd and a 4th in Algarve shows that he has great early season legs. He is still very young though at just 21 and it could be a chaotic last 100km or so, but he has shown in his results that he holds no fears in the finish and should be right in the mix I think. At 18/1 with Bet365 he will be carrying some of my cash on his back

Chris Sutton could go well, as could Barry Hofland, both of which are 33/1, but if you are looking for a long shot who might try a solo shot, maybe have a little bet on Terpstra at 66/1 or Chavanel at 100/1, all depends on how Saturday goes. The full list of starters for the 2014 Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne race can be found here. 

*Update - 1/3/2014, 20:30* Well what a day's racing we had today. I was really unlucky with my Greg Van Avermaet pick at 20/1, I was sure he had it in the bag when it came down to the two of them and I was getting very excited. But he hesitated and Stannard got the jump which GVA could not pull back. After he said 'I was really cold at the finish.. he (Stannard) surprised me and took 2 meters. My body didn't react anymore as I thought it would react."

We did get the each-way on 20/1 though so it paid out £60 for a £10 each-way investment. I did also point out though that Stannard was the best bet on the Sky camp and it looked like quite a few of you Sky fans got on him on my recommendation, judging by my twitter feed this afternoon!

So what to make of what happened today then in relation to tomorrow's race? Boonen didn't do his chances any harm at all in that he had a day off more or less, missing the main breaks of the day and rolling in in 33rd place. OPQS will be all out tomorrow to make up for what was a disaster for them today with Terpstra in 5th their best result. I expect them to be active in the last 80km or so trying to sap the strength of the proper sprinters to try and set it up for Boonen.. but will he be good enough is the question?

Arnaud Démare... Arnaud Démare.. what were you doing today?! On the attack, mixing it with the Ardennes men, working hard.. I was thinking as I was watching 'you're killing your chances for tomorrow here pal' as he was putting in such an effort, but then, he missed breaks in the last 30km and hopefully just saved energy for the rest of the race with tomorrow in mind. He has shown though that he is in superb shape and I am still confident of a big race tomorrow. Seems he is being supported too as he is in to 9/2 best price from the 6/1 he was last night. Little bit worried that he was beaten by four guys in the sprint for 6th place, but I think tomorrow will be very different for his chances. 

Vanmarcke and Vandenbergh rode well today, as did EBH who had an armchair ride to the finish and took 3rd spot for Sky too. I think though that the 50kms between the last hills/cobbles and the finish will be too much for a small break to hold off the sprinters teams and we'll see a battle royale between Greipel, Démare, Coquard, Boonen and Kristoff. So I'm happy to stick with my selections and watch for the in-play too.  Greipel is surely the hot favourite to win but given the unknowns about his health I think I'll leave him for now and wait to see what news hits twitter about his wellbeing tomorrow morning. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Arnaud Démare at 6/1 with Paddy Power

1pt win Arnaud Démare at 6/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pt each-way on Bryan Coquard at 18/1 with Bet365

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