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Published on Saturday, 30 January 2016 00:13

Grand Prix Cycliste La Marseillaise

Marseille

Sunday 31st January 2016, 152.2kms

The Grand Prix Cycliste La Marseillaise opens the season on the European scene, with riders wrapped up heavily against the cold February conditions. Last year's race saw a surprise winner in Pim Ligthart, as he just held on at the front of a mass sprint, ahead of 2014 winner Kenneth Vanbilsen.  

This year's race has a new route, adding an extra 12.5kms as they make a new detour south towards the coast at Cuges Les Pins towards La Cliotat, to take in the 3rd KOM climb of the day at the Col des Crêtes du cap Canaille with 124.6kms gone. The rest of the route is similar to previous years, finishing with the uphill sprint on Boulevard Michelet in front of the Stade Velodrome, where Ligthart just got his nose in front last year, to the annoyance of Demoitie and Vanbilsen (below).

As usual there were plenty of attacks and riders up the road all during the race, but the sprinters teams pulled it back together in time for the long drag up the finishing straight (see video below). It is a real strong mans sprint, that is when it ends in a sprint, as that's not always the case - in 2011 Jeremy Roy won solo and in 2010 and 2012 the race was won from sprints among small groups.

Grand Prix Cycliste La Marseillaise finish 2015, won by Pim Ligthart

The Route

They start a bit closer to Marseille this year than last year, in the north-east suburbs of Saint Just, but they have a neutralised zone of 8kms until they reach Logis Neuf where the race proper starts. From there the route is quite similar to last years's course for quite a long way. It's a rolling course that takes them north-east in to the countryside and the hills above Marseille. They don't go as far as Rousset this year but when they reach Trets after around 50kms they start to head south on familiar roads towards Saint-Zacharie.

With 62kms gone they start on the first categorised climb of the day, the Col du Petite Galibier, which is situated on the Pas de Couelle. This climb is 7.3kms long and rises to 550m, averaging a steady 4.3% gradient. They continune through Auriol and on to the next climb of the day, as it was last year, the Col de L'Espigoullier after 87kms. This one rises to 723m over a far longer distance of 14kms, averaging 4.6%.

This year, instead of cutting back towards Cassis and on to the finish, they head south through Ceyreste and on to La Ciotat. A right turn takes them on to the road that zig-zags above the coast and on to the final climb of the day, the Col des Crêtes du cap Canaille. This is ridiculously short for a categorised climb, at only 800m, but it averages a back-breaking 23%, hitting gradients in the 30s. It may be only 800m long, but coming with less than 30kms to go it could play a key part in the final selection. 

A fast descent down to Cassis then they take on the Col de La Geneste, which although isn't one of the KOM climbs of the day, is a tough challenge with just 10kms to go from the summit. It comes in stages with the toughest part at the bottom, with 800m at 9%, then 2.4kms at 6%, before it eases off to a far steadier 3% average for the next 7.4kms and then 2.8% for the next 5.5kms. After one final roundabout it's a dead straight road for the next 2kms to the finish.

Route Map

Contenders

There are four previous winners of the race lining up again this year - Samuel Dumoulin ('12), Jonathan Hivert (10), Kenneth Vanbilsen ('14) and Justin Jules ('13) but I can't really see any of them winning it again this year. Vanbilsen maybe, he has been 1st and 2nd here the last two years and seems to go well at this time of the year. Dumoulin opened around 7/1 I think but has drifted out now to 12/1, he's friendless it seems so far and I'm not surprised. Vanbilsen looks tempting each-way at 20/1 though, he likes this race and the uphill finish. 

It's about 80-90% chance it will come to a sprint this year I reckon again so I'm going to concentrate mainly on the sprinters here, picking the breakaway guys will almost be impossible, but I'll name a few as I go along.

Lotto-Soudal start with the number 1 race number but it isn't on Ligthart's back, he's in Australia after doing the TDU and is doing the Cadel Ocean Race on Sunday. Instead it's on the back of Sander Armée, but that looks an alphabetical coincidence rather than any indication of who the race leader is! They've a strong looking team here though and it may be that they will get behind the likes of Tosh Van Der Sande or Sean de Bie here. TVDS is 2nd favourite at 10/1 and he could go very close indeed. Sean de Bie is 50/1 and that's about right, it will be TVDS for Lotto-Soudal unless something happens to him. Of course they also have Tony Gallopin who could go on the attack inside the last 30kms over the final two hills, it's the sort of thing he would be likely to try. 14/1 is a little short though seeing as most break attempts don't make it in this race. 

AG2R have Bardet, Cherel and Sam Dumoulin here and although they'll probably be all behind former winner Sam Dumoulin, the diminutive sprinter will find it tough going these days. Instead they may be looking to the likes of Bardet and Cherel to test their legs out on the course and try to get in breaks, that may make it. I wouldn't hold my breath though. 

Favourite for the race though is Heinrich Haussler, and that's probably because he's the only half-decent sprinter in the race, it really is a poor line-up that is taking to the start line this year, with most decent riders either still in Australia or in Mallorca. I can't understand why he is such a short price favourite at 4/1 - he hasn't raced down under and aside from winning the Road Nationals in Oz last year he doesn't seem to really fire at this time of the year. I have seen nothing to suggest he is going the best he has ever been and it's not a great team that IAM have here, with Coppell, Devenyns and Chevrier adequate but not exactly world-class support. It just means there must be value elsewhere. Possibly in his other team-mate, Sondre Holst Enger, winner of a stage in the Tour of Austria last year and 3rd in the U23 World Road Race Championships in 2013. But at 16/1? No thanks.

Fourth favourite for the race at just 12/1 is a 21 year old 2nd year pro with Direct Energie, Thomas Boudat. There's no doubt he's got talent and Caleb Ewan has shown that being just 21 doesn't mean you can't win. He came 7th in the French U23 Road race as an 18 year old and 4th in the U23 European Championships road race in 2014 as a 19 year old. Last year was his break-through season as a pro though with Europcar and he had a number of good results, including winning the Classica Corsica. This is a big step up though and besides Sylvain Chavanel it's a pretty poor team here to support him.

Caja Rural have Carlos Barbero here and he likes a course like this, it's not too dissimilar to the course of the Spanish nationals last year when he was just pipped by Valverde in the break of three that fought out the finish. He did get his hands in the air last year at the Philly Cycling Classic in the US, beating none other than flavour of the month in the TDU Michael Woods and Toms Skuijns, now of Cannondale. He also won two stages in the Tour de Beauce from sprints on hilly courses and a stage of the Vuelta Ciclista Comunidad de Madrid on an uphill finish.

Perhaps his best victory of his career though came in the Vuelta a Burgos last year, on a course that contained 4 Cat 3 climbs over a course that was just 5kms longer than this one and finished with an uphill finish. He beat Dani Moreno (hidden behind him) and Jesus Herrada and Luis Leon Sanchez were a few seconds back. The Caja Rural team would be pretty lightweight but the fact it's a hilly course might play to their strengths a little bit more than others, and as he has a pretty decent sprint on him compared to a lot of others here, he interests me a little at 14/1.. I'd have liked a bit longer, but I'd rather be on him at 14s than Haussler at 4s for sure.  

Baptiste Planckaert was 4th last year here and 2nd in 2014, he is a regular top ten finisher in Continental Tour races, but rately gets his nose in front. He may come close again at 20/1 in a field that isn't much better than a Continental Tour type of lineup. At bigger prices Julien Simon and Arthur Vichot could go well at 33/1. Jeremy Roy could get in a break at 80/1, but one last guy I wanted an interest in was Stig Broeckx of Lotto-Soudal.. mainly as I wanted to see what happened when I had a small bet at 300/1 with Paddy Power.

They let he have a grand total of 0.23pts each-way on someone with one third of a percent chance of winning it.. And then they cut him to 125/1. What a joke. He's not a bad rider, 5th in Binche-Chimay-Binche last year behind Sinkledam, Ligthart, Van Asbroeck and Van Genechten, he also finished 6th in a stage in the Giro last year to Lugano with an uphill sprint finish, with Modolo, Nizzolo, Mezgec, Haussler and Appollonio ahead of him. He may be close to the front as they hit the town and if Van Der Sande or De Bie are not up for it, he could be the main man for Lotto. 

It's also going to be an interesting race to see how Damian Shaw of Ireland gets on in his first race for An Post Chain Reaction. The current Irish Champion didn't start racing until he was 26 and was has only gotten his first ride as a professional rider at the grand old age of 32. He is a seriously powerful rider, winning the Irish Championships last year while still an amateur, he was working as a fireman still at the time. He also took two seconds and a third in the Rás last year. He's not going to tbe winning this, but it's just a great story to see him in this company. 

Who knows how this race will go, but I'm having small bets on three riders just for an interest, Barbero my best hope. 

Recommendations:

0.75pts each-way on Carlos Barbero at 14/1 with PP

0.23pts each-way on Stig Broeckx at 300/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Baptiste Planckaert at 20/1 with PP