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Published on Friday, 13 May 2016 00:40

Giro d'Italia St 8

Foligno to Arezzo 

Sat 14th May, 186kms 

After a day for the sprinters, stage 8 is a different matter entirely with a stage that is all about the 10km climb on the dirt road of the Alto di Poti, the top of which comes less than 20kms from the finish. They arrive in to the beautiful city of Arezzo with 32kms to go and pass the finish line before embarking on a loop that takes in the climb of the Alto di Poti. 

Finally! A day to cheer about! After a good start things have been frustrating in the last few stages, but we landed a clean sweep today to help get us back on track. It would have been nicer, a lot nicer, if Nizzolo had managed to get up to beat Greipel on the line, but I’ll take a 1-2 any day of the week. Greipel was superb, Lotto were superb, and almost played it exactly like I predicted with them leading him in to the final bend, but in fact they ran out of riders a little sooner than expected as no one else was prepared to take up the pulling at the front.

Greipel even got boxed in a little as they bunched a little coming to the last line, but he is just so strong right now, he blasted right by them. Nizzolo is back to suffering more seconditis, but he sprinted really well too and could have won it. Caleb Ewan briefly looked like he might be a danger but he faded just as quick as he appeared when the big boys came at him. He looked ridiculous actually the way he was sprinting, he was like someone that was on a kids bike with junior gears the way he was hunched over the handlebars and spinning furiously. I can’t see him beating any of these other sprinters here and I think they should think about retiring him and giving him a chance to get his confidence back with a win in a smaller one-day, or short stage race.

Modolo was unlucky, he looked to be in a great position to win too coming to the last 200m but was no match for Nizzolo – that’s good as it meant we landed the matchbet too. The other matchbet was a void as Pelucchi was a DNS, he was so slow yesterday he actually missed the time limit by 46” and was sent home! He really is a terrible climber, but Ruffoni finished 9th so I think he'd have won the bet anyway. Kittel got dropped on the last climb, but not by much, 20” or so, and they managed to get back on with about 15kms to go. He promptly went 4/5 favourite for the stage with Bet365 and I was literally inputting a large lay bet on him at 5/4 on Betfair when suddenly he went 20s in a flash.. my delayed pictures eventually showed him stricken at the side of the road with a mechanical, but I actually think he looked cooked from the stage action earlier and wouldn’ t have won that sprint anyway.

I wouldn’t be surprised either to see Kittel go home now and recover for the TDF, there’s not a lot of sprint stages left and lots of pain along the way. I don’t think that he has any interest in doing the TT, but he might just wait until the next rest day and pull out then. As for the rest of the stage, not a lot to say about it, Cannondale were mysteriously stretching things out for most of the last 30kms, no one seemed to know why. Some were guessing it was for Navardauskas but it was he who was doing most of the pushing at the front! It was a bad day for Javier Moreno of Movistar though, he crashed and has abandoned with what looks like a broken collarbone.

This could be a fantastic finish to this stage, with the dirt roads familiar to fans of the Strade Bianche race making an appearance for 6kms towards the end of the stage. The roads are difficult and dangerous when dry, they are treacherous and messy when wet - and the forecast is pretty bad for Saturday, with rain forecast for the whole day. The first 160kms are mostly flat and we should see a break build up a big lead. There is a Cat 3 climb at Schiegga with 120kms gone but it really shouldn't cause any problems. 

The vast majority of this stage is probably going to be pretty boring, let's face it, but the finale is going to be spectacular! The climb is hard, narrow and will probably be muddy - it could see some of the GC favourites falter so they will need to be on their toes - team-mates will be crucial as there is still nearly 20kms to go once over the top, so if there are any GC men off the back they still have a chance to get back on and save time losses. It could be a day we see the really powerful guys like Dumoulin and Fuglsang push it really hard on the dirt roads in an effort to shed the likes of Pozzovivo and Landa. 

The Route

The stage carries on the disection of the boot leg of Italy as they head further north from Foligno, the finish town of stage 7. This stage combines a lot of flat and some mountain roads. The route runs up the Tiber River valley, after rolling past Assisi and Perugia, all the way up to Città di Castello.

The roads are quite wide, but the surface is worn out at points; the roadway narrows when cutting through urban areas. Just past Città di Castello, the route leaves the Tiber River valley to tackle the steep Anghiari ascent first, followed by the Scheggia Cat 3 climb after 120kms. The stage rolls along wavy roads, with a few narrower sectors while crossing urban areas, all the way up to the Indicatore intermediate sprint after 144kms before arriving in to Arezzo for the first passage of the finish line.

Next they head to the Alpe di Poti climb, featuring 6.4 km on dirt roads, and double-digit gradients, hitting a max of 14%, with the section from 1.5kms in to the climb to 5kms in averaging a nasty 9.1%. Then there's 1800m at 1.7%, 2.5kms at 6.9% and the final kilometre averages 3.9%. The roads are incredibly narrow on the climb and the peloton is going to be strung out like the washing by the time they hit the top. 

After clearing the KOM summit, the road drops quickly into Foce dello Scopetone for 13kms and straight into the finish, with wide bends, leading to the stadium. The route then cuts across the city centre, where traffic dividers and roundabouts will be the main obstacles.

After the “flamme rouge”, the route takes two right-hand bends on wide roundabouts and through a tunnel. A short and steep climb takes them through a right-hander after 500m to go, then after a straight of 250m or so they take a sharp left which leads to the home straight of 200m, still climbing to the line. The last kilometre averages 5%, with a part hitting 11% with 750m to go. 

This is the 12th time of a Giro arrival in to Arezzo, the last time was in 2003 when Mario Cipollini won a great sprint.

Contenders and Favourites

I think a good place to start when looking at the possible winners of a quirky stage like this is in the result of this year's Strade Bianche. Ok, it is only 6kms of the dirt roads here and not the 50kms or so that are in SB, but the conditions can be difficult to adapt to and experience will help greatly. Also, it's not just that they are dirt roads, but they are on roads with gradients of over 9% for nearly 4kms, hitting a max of 14%. 

Looking at the top placers of riders who are here, Fabian Cancellara (1st), Gianluca Brambilla (3rd), Diego Ulissi (7th) and Alejandro Valverde (10th) all should have good chances here, but it is also worth remembering of course that the finish in SB is very different to this one, but they do both feature an uphill finish, this one being 5% for the last kilometre. Jacob Fuglsang, Giovanni Visconti, Bob Jungels and Vincenzo Nibali also finished in the top 20. 

The thing to remember though is that racing the Strade Bianche is a very different sort of race to a stage of a Grand Tour with it still all to play for. By the time they come to the later, crucial dirt climbs in SB, many riders are already shelled out and it really is only the strongest, Classics-types fight it out over the last 50kms. Here, we are going to have full squads tearing it in to the narrow roads of the final climb trying to protect their GC men. You'll have Classics guys like Cancellara in the mix, strong sprinters like Nizzolo and puncheurs like Brambilla and Ulissi who will be looking to be in the right place when the moves come in the hope that they will be part of a split that fights out the finish. 

Of the GC men, there are quite a few of them who will like this finish and will be looking to put time in to the lighter, more fragile climber types. Dumoulin, Fuglsang, Jungels, Valverde, Ulissi, Kruijswijk will all be looking to put pressure on the likes of Zakarin, Landa, Pozzovivo, Chaves and Uran. 

It's likely we will see Etixx quite prominent as they approach the finale, they will be looking to get Jungels and Brambilla on the climb near the very front. Bob Jungels finished 15th in SB, but was over 2' back on Cancellara, so he should be able to cope with one blast of the dirt roads. He also doesn't mind it wed and muddy so I'd think he will fancy powering up this one. Brambilla has been climbing well, especially on the shorter, punchier efforts like on stage 4, and in a reduced group he can sprint really well, as we saw when he was '2nd' in the sprint that day.

He rode brilliantly in SB and notched an excellent 3rd place, just after his team-mate Stybar. I think he has had his eye on this stage and is one I really like the chances of. If he goes on the attack near the top of the climb, the GC men might let him go in favour of keeping an eye on Jungels. If not, they will have a hard chase to pull him back and Jungels might have an opportunity to attack on the downhill like he did in Oman stage 1. Brambilla was 25/1 when the bookies opened, I took that with Bet365, but he is now 28/1 with Ladbrokes and that's worth an e/w shot. 

Tom Dumoulin showed on stage 6 that on gradients of around 6-7% he can go really well for a short burst, he opened up a huge gap on Landa and Nibali in no time at all. He has done SB twice, finishing 12th in 2014 and 17th in 2013, so it looks like the dirt roads aren't too much of a problem for him. He actually said today after the stage "I did Strade Bianche two times and I really liked it. I’m looking forward to it"

He is showing that he has a lot of power at the moment and is not lacking in confidence inwardly, even if outwardly he is still trying to portray that he isn't here to win the GC. This will be a big test for him, his team will be light on the ground I think by crunch time - on stage 6, Ludvigsson was their next best rider down in 66th place, but he and Haga had worked hard to protect Dumoulin earlier on the climb. It might be that he just follows wheels here, the big TT coming up will be front and centre of his mind, (he said today he wants to win it) but if he can take some more time here he will definitely go for it.

Alejandro Valverde and Diego Ulissi are both sitting 41" down on Dumoulin and will be looking to put pressure on him and move up. Valverde though disappointed as favourite for stage 6, coming in in 10th, but maybe he knew that the battle for 1st was lost and he wasn't that interested in busting a gut with the TT to come. He did say afterwards thought that he wasn't happy with how he felt, that he wasn't going as well as he's have liked. I don't think he'll be winning but will be close to a top 10 again like in SB, I think he's a poor favourite at just 6/1.

Diego Ulissi rode really well in SB, finishing in 7th, just 41" behind Cancellara. He has been showing some really good form this week, his attack to leave the other attackers behind on the climb on stage 4 was very impressive. He accelerated away while sitting down, that sort of power/skill will be very useful on a dirt-road climb like this. He could be right up there in the mix again on Saturday, but he's not much value I think at 12/1, he could be a 5th to 10th guy. 

Moreno Moser is being backed and is very short now at just 12/1 with a few, but he is as big as 20/1. Former winner of SB of course, he will like these roads, but I can't understand how he is so short unless he has made it public that he is after reccing the route a lot and targeting this stage specifically. I haven't seen that and I wasn't that impressed with him on stage 4 after backing him, he attacked but then blew up almost just as quick. Not confidence inspiring on a finish like this. 

Tim Wellens will like this sort of parcours and the wet and mud won't bother him. He showed how strong he is with his breakaway win on stage 5, he should be there or thereabouts near the top and may try a flyer on the descent. His team-mates Jurgen Roelandts and Pim Ligthart will like this finish too, maybe Ligthart will get a go after working for Wellens on stage 5. It would be four stages in a row for Lotto-Soudal if they can land another win. Ligthart and Roelandts are 150/1 with ladbrokes.

Vincenzo Nibali is too short, he won't be winning I think, but Jacob Fuglsang is one who could have a big chance, if he's allowed go away again, Nibali may not let him show him up again after stage 6. Damiano Cunego is a joke of a price at 16s with Bet365, and even at 25s with Corals. Paddy Power opened with Alessandro De Marchi at 12/1, a frankly insane price, their trader must have been on the beer at lunch. Giovanni Visconti could be involved too in a finish like this, they might send him up the road to test the GC men and let Valverde have a free ride to the finish and fight out the sprint.  

Fabian Cancellara looked really good to me today, he looks like he has gotten his strength back with a powerful ride near the finish to look after Nizzolo and help him to his 2nd place finish. He won Strade Bianche of course in style this year and came to this Giro with the opening TT in his sights, but his sickness knocked him out for most of the first week, but he looked back to full strength today. Paddy Power didn't even bother quoting him when they opened, but he is now there at 33/1 and he might be worth a small bet. 

It is a very hard stage to call, but I think a reduced group of some 10-20 riders might get away, some GC men will not be in it, but chasing hard from behind and we might see a small sprint or a late attack out of that group take the stage. I don't think the break will make it, but if the peloton, and especially the GC men decide that they want to take it easy with the TT the next day, then the break might have a chance. I like Brambilla and Cancellara, but I think that Etixx could also have another chance here with Matteo Trentin - he was right up there at the front today, sprinting to 6th, beating the likes of Démare. He also finished 19th in Strade Bianche so can handle the hilly stony roads, and at 100/1 with Ladbrokes he's worth a small each-way. 

Another bet I like though is the winning margin to be 1" or less, I don't think it will be a solo winner, but a small group sprint, so they will be given the same time I think - it was 5/4 with Paddy Power and that was a good bet I think . 

Recommendations:

0.75pts each-way on Gianluca Brambilla at 28/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Fabian Cancellara at 33/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Matteo Trentin at 100/1 with Ladbrokes

3pts on winning margin being less than 1" at 5/4 with Paddy Power

Matchbets

Brambilla to beat Jungels - 3pts at 13/8 (this looks a huge price, think Brambilla will be challenging for the stage)

Wellens to beat Cunego - 2pts at 5/6 (can't understand how this is a pick-em bet, I can't have Cunego over Wellens)