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Published on Wednesday, 11 May 2016 22:54

Giro d'Italia St 7

Sulmona to Foligno 

Friday 13th May, 211kms 

Friday the 13th - will it be lucky for someone? The 3rd longest stage of the race takes them further up the middle of Italy and out of the worst of the Apennines on a rolling 'transition' stage that could well see a breakaway succeed or it could end in another bunch sprint like it did the last time the Giro came to Foligno in 2014.  

Well what a strange, strange stage we had today. I'm still trying to digest it all and want to watch it again tonight, but it seems that despite the break's lead dropping to around 1 minute, from 6 minutes with 80kms to go, that no one wanted to take it up in the peloton. A few riders decided that they were going to give it a second go at a break, and frankly, I was amazed that only three riders decided to do so - two of which were from Lotto. Where were the other teams? Whey didn't any Lampre, Etixx, Cannondale, Tinkoff, Bardiani, Willier guys try to get away? Instead Lampre/Astana or some as yet unnamed team took to attacking Tom Dumoulin when he stopped for a pee, Chad Haga tried protesting he said but it took an intervention by Cancella 'the Enforcer' to make them 'respect the Maglia Rosa'.

Up front, Wellens pressed on to an unlikely stage victory, well I say unlikely, but he was only 33/1 - that surprised me. The sleepy, dopy peloton looked uninterested in racing and all of a sudden the gap was up to 8 minutes.. It seemed no one wanted to drag Valverde to a stage victory and bonus seconds, but in being so negative they threw away their own chances of getting anything from the stage. Fuglsang and Siutsou finally attacked, then Nibali made his first big move of the Giro, but the Shark looked like a limp, dead octopus as he floundered after getting only about a 20m gap, chased down by Landa. Tom Dumoulin surged shortly after and only Pozzovivo and Zakarin could go with him, and suddenly they had a gap where you couldn't see any of the other GC riders. Nibali was cooked, Landa didn't respond, Uran and Valverde sat in. 

Finally the chasers started pushing hard and by the time Dumoulin and Zakarin climbed the 8% section to the finish, the chasers were breathing down their necks, with riders all over the road. They needn't have worried about Valverde, he struggled up the hill and only finished in 10th. Zakarin took bonus seconds for finishing in 3rd and a nice little time gap, to move himself up in to 3rd on the GC, and he's looking pretty good. I had thought about backing Pozzovivo at 80/1 as he had said he had recced the climb, but I didn't as he fails to deliver so many times - and yet again, after getting his supporters hopes up for an e/w payout, he limps in in 6th.

Dumoulin was bloody impressive with his attack, he ran out of steam a little at the end, but I think the bullshit he's been spinning about not going after the GC is put to bed after today. OK, he said the climb would suit him because of the gradient and distance and he will suffer a lot more on the big mountain climbs, but with the TTs suiting him far more than others he will need a Vuelta final stage type meltdown to push him out of contention now. He holds a 28" advantage over Zakarin and 47" over Nibali. Jungels continues to impress and now sits in 4th place after a 13th place finish today. Annoyingly Niemiec got in the first break of the day that got 13" at one point, but they were reeled in and the next break stuck. The stage bets went tits up and the matchbet treble was the only winner at 7/4. Chaves was one of the strongest at the finish so was unlucky that Dumoulin had flown before that. 

The Route

The stage is a long affair at 211kms and rolls along over lots of lumps and hills all day long. Nothing too major though and should be a relatively easy day in the saddle for the GC favourites. The stage starts with a bang though with a Cat 2 climb after just 11kms, climbing 9kms at an average of 5.6%. Once over the top the road continues to climb for another 22kms, but gently, They continue to head north-west over undulating roads and face the only other categorised climb of the day after 153kms. 

The climb of the Valico Della Somma is 17kms long but the average gradient is only 3%. The last 5kms are closer to 6% though as it gets steeper towards the top. Once over the top there are 40kms to go, 22kms of which are descending, 18kms of a flat run in to the line.

The finish is pretty straight-forward up until about 1400m to go when they take a sharp right, followed by a sharp left, pass under the flamme rouge and then another sharp left turn. The next 700m are straight before one final arcing right hand bend that takes them on to a short 160m long finishing straight. 

You can see the finish in the video below from 2014 when Bouhanni nipped up on the inside of the final right-hand bend to beat Nizzolo and Mezgec (jump to 21 minutes). The bends may be tight, but the roads are wide and good quality and the last 3kms are taken at incredibly high speeds.

Contenders and Favourites

As I mentioned above, the last time the Giro finished in Foligno was in 2014, when Nacer Bouhanni won a sprint from Nizzolo and Mezgec. The stage was similar but started in Frosinone and headed north, but came at the Valica Della Somma from a slightly different side. The last 40kms of the stage that day was practically the same, with the downhill charge off the top of the hill all the way to the finish. It ended in a bunch sprint that day, it's likely we'll see it finish in a bunch sprint on this stage too. 

The break of the day that included Nathan Haas and Nicola Boem almost made it, they were caught with just under 3kms to go. Despite the late climb there were 5/6ths of the peloton finished in the same time as the winner, showing that the vast majority of the riders got over the last hill, including Viviani who was 10th, Swift 15th, Colbrelli 18th and Belletti who was 20th. The top 10 showed that it was a tough finale though with the likes of Matthews (4th), Viviani and Swift not able to get up to challenge the podium spots. Bouhanni did exceptionally well to stay at the front and pounce for the stage win. 

The big question of course here again, is, will Marcel Kittel get over the final climb and get to the finish in a fit enough state to contest the sprint? Can he do a Bouhanni? There was lots of crap talked about how well he was climbing this year, this is the new Kittel etc, he has shown in the last two days that you still can't trust him on even the easiest looking mountain days, or even over a small hill on a finishing circuit. It was strange on stage 5 how he was dropped in the town circuit rather than out on the hills. He admitted that it had been a really hard day and he suffered, that he just didn't have the legs, but that was very disappointing. Which Kittel will we see tomorrow? Is he worth backing again or should we steer clear? It's leaning towards avoid to me following the last sprint outcome. 

Giacomo Nizzolo is one that has to be considered as he almost won this stage in 2014, going down by millimetres to BouBou. He said that he didn't feel great in stage 4 before he crashed, but that could be smoke and mirrors, he was in a great position and looking very strong and in control as they hit the flamme rouge. I want to give him another go to prove himself in, hopefully, a safer and more normal sprint. If the peloton races really hard over the final climb we may see some of the sprinters dropped, giving him a good chance. 

Andre Greipel has to come in to the reckoning now, following his demolition job on stage 5. He was always in a great position and sat in cleverly behind the FDJ and Bardiani guys until a gap opened with about 200m to go and he shot through it surprising his rivals. He quickly gained a 10m advantage which he more or less held all the way to the line. He says that he is now back to his best and was very happy with how he felt. Lotto-Soudal will bury themselves for him to get him in to position and if EQS aren't there in mass for Kittel they could well be the team at the front screaming through the final bends with him in 3rd wheel. Coming off that final bend in a good place is crucial and it could be that he launches early again and will not be caught. 

Elia Viviani was a fancy for stage 5 but failed badly too to stage in touch with the leaders, finishing 90th. He said afterwards that he is not feeling great sensations in his legs and is not happy with his form. Unless he's bullshitting and just got caught at the wrong side of a split then it looks like he's one to avoid for tomorrow. If he's not in great form it's hard to see him improve on his 10th place from two years ago. 

Caleb Ewan has struggled so far in this race and has not managed a top 6 yet. I had a feeling he might struggle in this race, and I can't see that changing on this stage. He seems to be struggling with confidence at the moment and just can't seem to catch a break, he's hesitant in the sprints and not physical enough to push through gaps that others are prepared to go for. He got squeezed up a little again on stage 5 and had to check his sprint, this finish isn't one for the faint-hearted and I think he might not hit a top 6 spot again. 

Sonny Colbrelli is a fighter though and likes it when it's tough with a climb thrown in near the finish too. He almost finished 2nd on stage 5, only for Démare to pass him in the last 20m, but he was way off the pace in the two sprint stages in Holland, a worrying sign for a more flat out, high speed finish, which we'll get here. He was unlucky on stage 4 though, a broken pedal probably denied him a top 10 finish. 

Arnaud Demare has looked good in taking two runner-up spots in the race so far. He was no match for Kittel's kick in stage 2, but FDJ had set their stall out in the last few kilometres that Démare fancied it and did everything they could to put him in with a chance of winning it. He again was in a great position on stage 5, led out by two team mates in the last kilometre, but he was not prepared for Greipel's early kick and blew his chances. He finished extremely fast to take Colbrelli for 2nd. He has a habit of coming late and very fast, it's how he won MSR too, so I wouldn't rule out Démare coming off Greipel's wheel in the last 100m to take the stage, FDJ should have him in a good position as they round the final bend. 

Sacha Modolo was fancied by some on stage 5 but disappeared out of contention, along with Nizzolo when Taaramae fell in front of them. He hasn't been as consistent for me though following his 3rd place on stage 2 and I am not convinced he'll be challenging for the win tomorrow, and I fancy Nizzolo to take him in their H2H.

Manuel Belleti sprinted to a fine 6th place in stage 5, he seems to be in good form this year and getting better as the Giro goes on. He was 20th on this stage in 2014 too so he knows the route and finish and that will inspire him I think to try to go a lot closer than he was then. 

Eduard Grosu, Kristian Sbaragli, Moreno Hofland, Rick Zabel - they have all been coming close without ever looking like winning, they could be fighting for 5th to 10th places again. Of course a break might make it and there are plenty of contenders for that break, but I think the likes of FDJ, Trek and Lotto-Soudal will keep the pace really high and will do their utmost to shell Kittel and with an intermediate sprint coming just 30kms from the finish, they may look to pull the break back before then. 

I think Greipel has a great chance of making it two wins in a row from sprints, a third win in a row for Lotto-Soudal and a fifth stage in total for the Germans out of seven. Kittel is very fragile and is way too short looking to me at 7/4, he may be left behind again. I think Démare will be up there too, and Nizzolo will be desperate to make amends for stage 5. A matchbet you have to take though is Ruffoni to beat Pelluchi - Pelluchi has to be the worst climber of any sprinter ever, he finished dead last again today, over 25 minutes down, he's likely to be left behind again tomorrow. It opened at 11/10,  I took some, it's now 8/13 and I still think that's worth backing.

Recommendations

1pt each-way on Giacomo Nizzolo at 12/1 with Paddy Power

1pt each-way on André Greipel at 5/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Ruffoni to beat Pelucchi - 5pts at 8/13 with Bet365

Nizzolo to beat Modolo - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365