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- Published on Tuesday, 10 May 2016 23:54
Giro d'Italia St 6
Ponte to Roccaraso
Thursday 12th May, 157kms
The Giro tackles its first summit of the race as it heads further north and in to the mountains of the Apennine range which runs down the centre of Italy. A ski station during the winter, the riders will be hoping for better weather than they have faced lately in races like Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the Tour of Romandy.
This is the 6th time that the Giro has finished in Roccaraso, the first time was in 1952 and famous names such as Coppi and Hinault have won on this climb over the years. The race last visited here way back in 1987 when Italian favourite Moreno Argentin won a 205km slog, the Giro won of course that year by Ireland's Stephen Roche. This is a sort of finish that could suit his son Nicolas well if he is given the freedom to attack, the undulating gradients and the short 500m pull at 8% could given him a shot at victory.
Well today's stage was a disaster - Kittel decided that even though it was his birthday he wasn't up for it and managed to get dropped on the last lap, not on the uphill bit to the line, but on the flat part in between. It looks like he was caught on the wrong end of a split, and there were plenty caught like that today, but what was he doing so far back? Why weren't EQS looking after him? It was very disappointing, especially as he had dropped to 6/5 in play just before he was dropped. But he wasn't the only disappointment - cheif amongst them was the nightmare that befell Giacom Nizzolo, who was in a briliant position and looking really strong as they took the left-hander with 1200m to go. They Taaramae hit the dirt in front of him, he had to basically stop and that was his sprint over. Fucking Taaramae - what the hell was he doing up there?
Others who disappointed - Viviani was there, then he was't, then he rolls in in 90th place. Sacha Modolo was very popular for today but he flopped badly too, finishing way down the field. Greipel was bloody impressive though, the Gorilla has started to fire it seems. He was well looked after, always prominent, avoided the crash and when he kicked early he caught everyone out and quickly got a gap that the others couldn't close. Colbrelli came after him but was passed by a fast-finishing Démare. Ewan was there or thereabouts, but once again failed to get in a blow versus the top sprinters.
There was a small time gap of 4" given to the first group home, Nicolas Roche led home the 2nd group. Valverde and Zakarin were on the right side of it. Bad news for Omar Fraile bets as he abandoned after a crash. Jakub Marezcko also abandoned, which is not good for our Points matchbet with Ewan, but I still don't expect Ewan to finish, and someone even said to me today that OGE have said he won't finish. So hopefully we'll get stakes back on that at least.
The Route
The route starts in Ponte and heads west for fifteen flat kilometres before turning north at Telese Terme where the road starts to climb. The first intermediate sprint comes after just 25kms so there's a fair chance the race will still be together until then and when the points are taken by Nizzolo or whoever, the attackers will probably finally be given some rope as the climb up to Bocca Della Selva gets steeper. From the flat roats as Telese Terme they will have been climbing for 39kms in total by the time they get to the top of mountain. The climb comes in three waves, with the official stats of the Categorised part being 17.9kms at 5.6% average, with the last 6.5kms averaging a steady 7.1%.
Once over the top of the Cat 2 climb they descend for 20kms to the 74km mark, climb an uncategorised hill after 98kms, and 
after a short descent start to climb towards the finish. The last 50kms are very undulating, climbing towards the finish in five waves. The final, most important part starts just after the intermediate sprint at Castel Di Sangro with 16.7kms to go.
The Cat 2 climb to Aremonga comes in waves too, averaging 4.6% for that 16.7kms. But the first 5kms averages 7.5% to make it a hard start to the climb, then it eases to 4.1% for 2kms, before it actually flattens out for 3kms.
With just under 7kms to go the road turns south suddenly and kicks up again, climbing the next 3kms at 7.4%, before another easing back to 3.5% for the last 3.5kms. With 3kms to go the road levels off again for 1.5kms, then there's 500m at 3.2%, 500m at 5.8% and the last 500m averages 8.3% as the road keeps climbing all the way to the finish line (right).
Route Map
Profile
Roccaraso
Contenders and Favourites
This looks like a day that we could see a break make it - the Bocca Della Selva, which effectively starts after just 15kms is a perfect launching pad for an early attack, particularly by those in pursuit of the KOM points, the first Cat 2 climb of the race. It's a relatively short stage too at 157kms, well compared to 233kms the day before it is anyway, but this will be a hard stage. With the undulating roads that come over the last 75kms or so, it'll be hard to organise a chase and the GC teams might be happy to let a break take the stage and for them to scrap it out for time gaps behind them.
The final 40kms or so are lumpy, but nothing too difficult, it averages 4.8% for the 17kms of the climb, with stretches at 7%, and a max of 12%. That will allow the break to keep a good steady rhythm, but on the flip side, once the GC teams get in to full swing they'll be able to take chunks out of their lead. I think though that if they come to the 10km to go mark with over 2mins then they should make it. The next 3kms are flat before a final kick up to the finish for the last 5kms, almost half of which is around 7%, the other half at 3.5%. They'll be able to keep a fast pace up this section, unless they're shattered, but seeing as it's not a day with 5 climbs to get over and is only 157kms long you'd think they should be ok.
Of course the GC men might fancy it too - Alejandro Valverde will love this finish, a steady climb he can suck wheels on all the way up and then sprint to victory up that 8% slope for the last 500m. He showed he is up for fighting at the front with his 4th place on stage 4, winning the sprint behind the three who had got away. He will need every bonus second he can get with the opposition he faces here so you'd fancy Movistar to push hard to pull in the break in the last 10kms. Alternatively, Movistar could put someone in the break so they don't have to do any work and make others chase. Visconti could be a man for the break, but he sits just 1'16" down on the GC, don't think they'll let him stay away. José Herrada is over 16' down so he could try, but he will probably be asked to look after Bala. Jasha Sutterlin, who is the current Lanterne Rouge might try, but as he's the last man in the race maybe he's injured or doesn't have good legs or something.
Astana might send someone up the road so Nibali has an easy day, or possibly to use him as a bridge if Nibali fancies a late attack. Eros Capecchi is a possible candidate for that, he sits far enough down on GC to be let go. It's been 5 years since he last won a stage in the Giro, his only ever GT win. That was on a day with the climb of the Passo Di Ganda, finishing in San Pellegrine Terme.
Alessandro Di Marchi is a rider I've been keeping an eye on and it's possible that he goes up the road tomorrow. He has been keeping a pretty low profile in the race so far but was riding well before it started. I thought he'd be a longshot, but he's no longshot with the bookies, as he's only 25/1. It's quite short, but possibly worth a small bet. Amets Txurruka was up the road today, he'd have been a pick for today but I don't think he'll go two days running. Ruben Plaza at 150/1 with PP is another break candidate at a big price, he's always a keen breakaway man.
Przemyslaw Niemiec was riding really in Turkey last week, winning the KOM competition with some good rides, including 2nd on the tough uphill stage 6. He has been easing himself in to this race but might fancy this one tomorrow. The team is buzzing after Ulissi's win, but also will be pissed off with how Taaramae stopped Modolo's charge with 1km to go today. But of course Ulissi also has a big chance here if he can hang in there until the last kilometre, the uphill finish would suit him too. But 7/1 looks very short to me.
Mikel Landa could go well on a finish like this too, but I've been concerned with how he's been riding, he was almost left behind on stage 4 at the top of the Via Fortino, Roche dragged him over the top and back on to the leaders. In fact, Roche at 40/1 is a far more interesting bet to me than Landa at 14/1, he has been riding really well, but it's likely he has to look after Landa and may not be given the nod to attack, unless Landa tells him to.
Tom Dumoulin is looking incredibly slim and fit, and maybe the secret training we was doing before the Tour was totally focused on preparing him for a GC shot here, despite his protestations that he has done no real climbing training ahead of it. It could be the reason that he has not been his usual dominant self in TTs lately too, scraping a win in the opening TT, and finishing 2nd in the two TTs in Romandie. He said today that this sort of finish should suit him really well and he's looking forward to it, but he'll see how his legs are - he said his legs were good on Tuesday, not so good on Wednesday.
Chaves, Nibali, Pirazzi, they could all get involved also, but another I like the look of is Brambilla again, he seems to be riding really well and was unlucky not to finish 2nd on stage 4, he climbed really well and sprinted really well. If he can hang in there tomorrow he would have a chance on this finish too. An outsider at a big price I like is Matteo Busato - he's shown some good form this season, including 5th in the Giro Dell Appenino and 5th in a tough stage in Coppi e Bartali. He showed up well in stage 4 with an 8th place and at 125/1 he's worth a shot.
I think the break has a small chance of making it tomorrow, that was a tougher stage than some expected today, the 233kms was really felt at the end of the day. The GC men might save themselves for the TT at the weekend, or they might go at it full gas for the stage win and the bonus seconds. So a few bets on possible breakaway candidates and if it does come down to a GC battle, I think Valverde looks the most likely winner, but Brambilla and Busato at a massive price could go close too.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 10/3 on Betfair
0.5pts each-way on Gianluca Brambilla at 25/1 with PP
0.25pts each-way on Matteo Busato at 125/1 with PP
0.2pts each-way on Prmyslaw Niemiec at 125/1 with Skybet
0.2pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 150/1 with PP
Matchbets
Chaves to beat Dumoulin - 2pts at evens with PP
Zakarin to beat Dumoulin, Valverde to beat Ulissi, Jungels to beat Preidler - 1pt at 7/4
Brambilla to beat Ulissi - 1.5pts at 13/8 with PP
