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Published on Sunday, 08 May 2016 23:04

Giro d'Italia St 4

Catanzaro to Praia a Mare

Tuesday 10th May, 200kms 

Following the rest-day transfer back to Italian soil, the race starts again on the most southern part of Italy with a stage that breaks the run of flat stages. It's a bumpy route that takes them up along the coast with occassional dips inland to take in some categorised climbs but is likely again to finish in a bunch finish.

I say likely to end in a bunch finish, but there are quite a number of hills in the last 80kms that could shake things up, two of which are Cat 3 and a number of uncategorised lumps, one of which comes just 7.5kms from the finish line. 

It was all so easy for Kittel again on stage 3, he looked so confident, so strong, so in command. Five Giro stage wins now for the German, none of which have been on Italian soil! Viviani annoyed us by sprinting to a podium spot the day after we backed them, and equally so Modolo decided to go AWOL the day we back him. Viviani at least won his matchbet, but the other matchbets were unfortunately torpedoed by Grosu crashing in the FDJ crash. 

Greipel was better but just coudn't go with the move by Kittel, his last leadout man just didn't look good enough to get him in the right position and Greipel had to come around him. Ewan was right up there but looked nervous and hesitant and several times went up blind alleys and had to back off. Nizzolo sprinted well to 3rd, and Sbaragli and Porsev were right up there again as was Démare, who managed to sprint to 8th, despite crashing twice (wonder was there a sticky bottle involved?) The wind did play a part in the stage though with a number of riders being caught out in splits, with several riders finishing 6, 7 minutes and more behind. Fraile lost time, which is not a problem, it'll give him more freedom to attack now! Cunego lost time, as did Marezcko who let down his backers again. 

Good news was Nizzolo has now notched a podium on a day I didn't expect him to and has crashed back down to 7/4 favourite again from the 5/2 for the points jersey. A long way to go yet, but he's now coming in to territory more up his street. 

The Route

The first 120 km are uncomplicated, but the last 80kms of the 200 are quite wavy and bumpy with plenty of opportunities to attack and try to steal the leader's jersey. The route winds its way along wide and fast roads, with a few tunnels along the way. Past Cetraro Marina, the route takes in the Bonifati climb (6.5kms at 6%) and dives into the ss. 18. It then leaves the trunk road to tackle the second categorised climb of the day in San Pietro, it averages 6.8% for 5.3kms, but has pretty steep gradients on the lower part of the climb. The route grows harder after the intermediate sprint in Scalea, with many climbs and descents, and twists and turns that lead into the final 10 kilometres.

There's one final little climb to get over, an uncategorised climb that comes with just 10.5kms to go and just 8.5kms to go from the top of the hill. The hill is just 2kms long, but averages 7%, with parts at 18% at the bottom and near the top and a max of 18%.

They take a sharp left at the top of the hill and start descending down to Praia a Mare, going through two tunnels in 3kms. From the 5km to go to the 2.5km mark they go through nine turns through the twisty urban streets, but once on the shoreline there's a 2.5km flat and straight run to the finish. 

Contenders and Favourites

So rest day is over and the riders start right at the foot of Italy, skirting up along the coast to a finish 200kms away in Praia a Mare. The first 120kms are pretty uneventful and flat but it's likely we'll see the inevitable crash or two amongst the skittish peloton. We'll get the long break but it could take a while for it to get away, but expect the Italian teams to have a few riders in there. It won't stick though and we should see the peloton reel them in before the finish. But with the two Cat 3 climbs in the last 80kms and the numerous hills on the run in to the finish, it's a very different stage to the first two in pan-flat Holland.

As they approach the town with 10kms to go they will hit what will be the crucial part of the race - they hit the Bv Per Via Del Fortino with 10.5kms to go and it immediately hits gradients of 9.2% for the first 500m as they swing off the main road, hitting a max of 18%. And the road is REALLY narrow, barely wide enough for one car to pass, narrow and rough. You can see the steep part below, they come up from below and head up under the bridge, this part averages 9%

The next 500m are at 5% then another 500m at 9%. You can see the later parts of the climb below that average 9% again as they approach the top, you can also see just how rough the road is. 

Once over the top there's just 8kms to go, but those 8kms will go really fast, with more or less 5kms of it a very fast descent with lots of turns as they enter the town. 

I think that the climbers/puncheurs will come to the front and push on really hard on this climb and I think that we could see some of the sprinters really struggle. Those parts at 18% is almost Mur de Huy steepness and the climb is long enough to cause real damage behind. Astana, Movistar, Sky and maybe Trek will really push it hard to get rid of the sprinters and to keep their GC men safe. I think Kittel will not make it, nor will Ewan, Greipel, Viviani, Pelucchi, Rufoni and Sbaragli. This is interesting because the bookies have priced it up like they will - Kittel is the 7/1 favourite across the board. 

But I think we will have a situation where we either get a group of punchy attackers get away on the hill and manage to hold off the pack and fight it out, or we get a reduced peloton of maybe 50-60 riders come to the finish, with some of the stronger sprinters who have managed to hang in there. 

Looking at the sprinters who can stay in there, you'd think Giacomo Nizzolo might make it - it will be a stretch for him, but he is pretty good at getting over hills like this and would have a great chance of taking his first stage win if he is still in there at the finish. Arnaud Démare might be able to hang in there, he won MSR after all, but is 15/1 worth taking? I'm not sure. Moreno Hofland would be similar to Nizzolo and Démare, he might be able to hang in there and will be looked after by the LottoNL-Jumbo boys.

Sonny Colbrelli is also one that could hang in there, he's had a good season so far, including '3rd' in the sprint behind first three in Brabantse Pijl, and 3rd in Amstel Gold. He finished 6mins down on stage 3 though, so either he was unlucky with the wind splits or he isn't riding at 100% right now.

I think though that this could be more of a finish to take a chance on some of the punchy attacker types - I think Movistar, Etixx, IAM and Lotto-Soudal will have an interest in attacking this climb hard from the bottom - the road is so narrow that if they can string it out and they attack away off the front on the steeper parts then there will be gaps created. I think the likes of Giovanni Visconti, Gianluca Brambilla, Matteo Trentin, Tim Wellens, Nik Arndt, Tanel Kangert, Heinrich Haussler and Leigh Howard are the sorts of guys who will like this opportunity to attack away.

Leigh Howard won in the Classica Almeria earlier in the season, just after finishing 2nd in the hilly Cadel Evans road race, he will like this sort of finish, as will his team-mate Heinrich Haussler. We may even see Alejandro Valverde attack with them and if so would be a big danger in a reduced sprint. He will also maybe see this as an opportunity to get one over Nibali and Landa if he can get away, although if Valverde goes, expect Landa and Nibali to be chasing hard after him. Moreno Moser is a former winner of Strade Bianchi, and he is just 12" off the race lead - he could be given a chance to try to go and win the stage and maybe take the race leader's jersey. He was a massive 300/1 with PP, but is now 150/1, I still think that is a great outside bet, he's just 66/1 with Bet365.

If we get Movistar, Astana, Etixx looking to lead it in to the climb and they mass it at the front, we could see some of their men slip off the front and it will be hard to organise a chase with the narrow road. We might see a group of Milan San Remo type riders get to the top with a 15-20" lead and if they work together they can hold off a dispersed and disorganised chase. We may see Kittel get over the top close enough to the leaders to get back on, but he will really have to work hard in order to do so, so either way he will find it hard to win the sprint I think. Also, if he's struggling, we might see Trentin and Brambilla kick on at the front and he'll be left on his own.

This is a very hard stage to call - it's the first day after a rest day, after a transfer from the excitement and stresses of Holland. It's 50/50 whether some of the sprinters get over the climb, I think Ewan, Pelucchi, and several others will struggle, Hofland, Nizzolo and  Démare might be able to hang on, but I'm going to take a chance on some attackers who might get away and stay away. Not a day for big stakes though, scattering small e/w bets at biggish odds. I might add one more sprinter type Monday night, but this is it for now!

Edit - 09/05, 10:45: I've added Nizzolo at 18/1 with Bet365, his price has gotten big enough now to get me interested. Also, I think a fun bet will be Moser to be in pink at the end of the day at 50/1 with PP, I liked it, backed it, then found this story which pleased me!

Recommendations:

0.25pts each-way on Gianluca Brambilla at 125/1 with PP

0.4pts each-way on Giovanni Visconti at 66/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Leigh Howard at 80/1 with Sportingbet

0.2pts each-way on Moreno Moser at 150/1 with PP 

0.5pts each-way on Giaccomo Nizzolo at 18/1 with Bet365

0.2pts win on Moreno Moser to be in Pink at the end of the day - 50/1 with PP

Matchbets

Colbrelli to beat Tsatevitch - 2pts at 4/6 with PP

Chaves to beat Uran - 2pts at 4/6 with PP

Nizzolo to beat Modolo and Haussler to beat Mezgec - 2pts on the double at 6/5 with PP

Visconti to beat Betancur - 3pts at 10/11 with Bet365