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Published on Saturday, 07 May 2016 22:20

Giro d'Italia St 3

Nijmegen to Arnhem

Sunday 8th May, 190kms

Stage 3 reverses the start and finish towns of stage 2 with the race starting in Nijmegen and finishing in Arnhem, taking in the flat lowlands of Holland, with the dangers the winds and the street furniture bring. We may see echelons and splits, but it's likely the stage wiil finish in a sprint, whether all the sprinters will be there or not is the question. 

Stage 2 went as expected then with a break that included Dutchman Martin Tjallingi and a battle for the first mountains jersey which Omar Fraile took. At the finish, Marcel Kittle was simply on a difficult level to the rest and easily landed the stage win. There were a number of surprises behind, first one was that Arnaud Démare did so well, taking up the sprint with his team that looked more organised than any other. He finished 2nd to reward his backers at 20/1. Sacha Modolo lunged late to take 3rd.

Behind, Ewan was 7th but Viviani and Greipel struggled, to disappoint us with the match bets. Marezcko was a big let down for his supporters though, and as I thought he might, he was nowhere near in the chaotic finish of the first day. So all in, it was a small profit to take us to about +4pts after two days with two headline winners. Let's hope it keeps going. 

Andrey Amador continues to impress, sprinting to 9th place, ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo and could possibly take the race leaders jersey in the coming days if he continues to race near the front. It also looks inevitable, barring accident, that Kittel will probably take the leader's jersey tomorrow, he now sits just 1" behind Dumoulin. 

The Route

Another flat run around the Netherlands on a stage that should end in another sprint. They start in Nijmejen and head north-east for 86kms to Borculo, where they turn left and go for 10kms in a north-east direction to Lochem before turning left again and start heading south-west and over a Cat 4 climb at Possbank with 53kms to go. They arrive on to a finishing circuit of 14kms which they do twice, and it's a tricky enough finish with a tunnel with 6kms to go, and two hard left hand turns inside the last 3.5kms. They go over a bridge and hit the 1km to go marker, facing a roundabout with just over 500m to go. The roads are wide and well paved though so hopefully there should be no problems and we see a good, fast sprint for the last 500m.

Contenders and Favourites

Marcel Kittel looked imperious today and I honestly can't see anyone coming close to him either tomorrow. He didn't even need a proper leadout today, he ended up riding the FDJ leadout for the last 200m. It might be a little concerning that his team did sort of dissolve a little early, but they should be better tomorrow and more organised. The one potential spanner in the works will be the wind out on the course - there are gusts expected up around 25kmph and that could cause splits. 

André Greipel - I can't understand how he started at 4/1 with Ladbrokes for the stage, I couldn't see him winning that stage at all. he eventually went off 6/1 as he was friendless in the market. 15th was even worse than I expected though, but his team seemed to let him down right when he needed them most - with 2kms to go there were four men in front of him, with 1km to go he was on his own. They just disappeared.  

Elia Viviani was looking strange all day, hanging around at the back of the peloton with 25kms to go, then was totally isolated in the sprint (but I've said before that's the way he likes it) but he never looked like he really wanted or was able to get up to the front row of the sprint, he was weaving in and out around 20th place as the hit the last 500m. It might be that Greipel and Viviani just had bad days and bad last kilometres, and they could be right up there fighting again like we'd expect tomorrow, but it is worrying to see their results today. 

Sacha Modolo zig-zagged his way along behind the EQS, FDJ and Lotto boys today but when it mattered most he came flying out after Kittel but was just unable to overhaul Démare. He looked fast though and I was a bit surprised to see him priced up longer than Greipel and Viviani, two riders he comfortably beat today. I took some 14/1 with PP, he has shortened to 12/1 but that's still worth a shot I think. 

Caleb Ewan was in a great place with just over 1km to go today but then Ruffoni started elbowing him off of Kittel's wheel and he eventually let him slip in front.. this saw him suddenly slip back a bit so that as they entered the arcing right hand bend with 300m to go he found himself in 10th place. He ended up 7th but never looked like he was going to trouble the front guys. 

Moreno Hofland was pretty close to a podium today, inspired by riding in Holland, I think he will do well again tomorrow but will struggle to get on the podium. One for a matchbet though with Nizzolo I think, he has the beating of him at 6/5. Arnaud Démare was impressive, along with his team today, but it's unlikely they'll have it all their own way tomorrow and Démare might find it harder going. He says that he thinks he can beat Kittel, but I can't see it, and he's no value now at just 9/1, he tends to get lost sometimes in sprints. 

Nizzolo signaled his intention for the points competition, winning the uphill intermediate sprint, but he was found wanting at the finish. He needs lumpier days than these flat runs and he might get it on stage 4 instead. Matteo Pelucchi was well off the pace today, I can't see him reversing that tomorrow.

Eduard Grosu I said was worth watching and he was just off the pace with 14th place, ahead of Greipel. He is 200/1 for tomorrow and that's worth a tiny bet at the price, won't take much for him to improve some places and if it's a chaotic sprint he might come close. Marezcko struggled today, can't see him suddenly coming in to the equation tomorrow. Ruffoni, Sbaragli and Porsev all rode well today to finish in the top 10, they could be 5th to 10th again tomorrow. 

I can't see anyone touching Kittel though, but 4/7 is way too short now, the evens we took a few days ago for today's stage now looks like the bet of the week eh.. I think Modolo will be good enough for a podium again tomorrow though and there's a few matchbets I like and I think I'll leave it at that for tomorrow. A few bets that I spotted though that I think we should get on are Omar Fraile for the KOM at 40/1 and Nizzolo for the points at 5/2.

Omar Fraile signalled his intentions today, getting in the break and taking the KOM points on offer to take the jersey, he may now look to hang on to it. In fact he was quoted after the race saying that he might look to go after the Jersey when back in Spain, he is a former winner of the Jersey in the Vuelta after all.

”Tomorrow it won’t be a stage for me. It’s too flat. But in Italy, I’ll try go for the King of the Mountains points again. I’m happy with the way I’ve started the Giro. Now I’d love to win a stage as well”

Corals seem to be asleep to it as he is still 40/1 with them (and Totesport) most of the others are 14-16/1, there is 28/1 with Boylesports as well though. Nizzolo also signaled his intentions with the intermediate sprint points, but with Demare and Kittel shortening after their results today, Nizzolo is now 5/2 from 7/4 pre-race, something I was hoping would happen. Take 2pts on that at 5/2 with PP. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Sacha Modolo at 14/1 with PP (take the 12/1 now)

0.1pts each-way on Eduard Grosu at 200/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Fraile at 28/1 with Boylesports for the KOM (afraid the 40/1 is gone now)

2pts win on Nizzolo to win the points competition at 5/2 with PP 

Matchbets:

Hofland to beat Nizzolo at 11/10 with Ladbrokes - 1pt

Viviani to beat Ewan at evens with Bet365 - 2pts

Kittel to beat Greipel (1/6), Grosu to beat Savitsky (1/3) and Chaves to beat Kruijswijk (8/15) - 2pts on the treble at 1.38/1 with 365

Kittel to beat Greipel (2/9) and Grosu to beat Zabel (4/9) - 3pts on the double at 4/5 with Ladbrokes