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Published on Friday, 27 May 2016 23:12

Giro d'Italia St 20

Guillestre to Sant'Anna di Vinadio

Saturday 27th May, 134kms 

The final mountain stage, the final chance to change the GC. And what a final stage this should be - over 4,300m of climbing and descending with three Cat 1 climbs and a Cat 3 climb to finish. It's a short stage though at just 134kms, so we should see fireworks from the very start.

What a day today. What a day. We had Lazarus Nibali rising from the dead and performing miracles on the road to Risoul. I did warn that I wouldn't put it past Astana for him to pull something out of the bag, if you excuse the pun. We had Kruijswijk doing a terrible impression of a snow plough and crashing hard, and while he was pulling his bike out of the snow, Nibali and Chaves went full gas down the descent, there was no 'respecting the pink jersey' today, it was all out war. 

We had Zakarin taking a seriously hard fall and break his collarbone shortly after, taking him, and some of our bets out of the race. Valverde cracked at altitude again and got dropped, but he rode steadily for the rest of the day to limit his losses and actaully pulled back some time on the flat section before the final climb and on the final climb. Chaves was looking all over the stage winner and he traded down to 1/2 in running (I know as I laid some down there) but suddenly a resurgent and re-energised Nibali attacked, and attacked again until Chaves couldn't respond any more. Nieve rode well, but couldn't stay with Nibali, ending up 2nd on the stage, catching and dropping Chaves on the run-in. 

Diego Ulissi pulled out an astonishing ride again today, finishing 4th, with established, jersey-winning climbers behind him on the road. Rafal Majka suffered at the top of the Agnello, but seemed much more at ease on the later climb. Uran suddenly looks to be feeling better, apparently he has been suffering from Bronchitis, which goes some way to explaining his poor form of late. He put in a solid ride today to finish 7th. George Preidler continues to impress with a superb 8th place, and our break pick Nico Roche came home a very respectable 9th place, riding up near the front for most of the day, sticking with Majka and Valverde until 3kms to go.

The break when it went had Roche and Ruben Plaza in it, 28 tiders in total went on the attack, and there is a good chance that the break would have actually made it had Kruijswijk not crashed and the GC men going full gas for the rest of the stage. Scarponi had looked like he might take the stage win when he rode away from the break, but he was literally told to get off and wait for Nibali to help him. As it was, the break riders probably would have won the stage, as Ulissi was in the original break and finished 4th and Preidler and Roche also finished in the top 10.  

It's a stage that could be over in three hours if they ride it at the same pace as the wild stage 16 which saw the race blown apart from the first climb of the day and the Grupetto riding full gas all day long just to make the very tight time cut. It's the last chance for the GC men to move up a place or more, it's the final chance for the climbers to take a stage victory in the race with the final stage being one for the sprinters. 

It will not only be a crazy day up front with the GC men and climbers fighting it out, but it will also be a hard day at the back of the race, as a short stage like this could see a real fight in the Grupetto to make the time limit. On stage 16 the time limit was something like 20 minutes and the Grupetto had to ride full gas all day just to make it. It will be a similar sort of time limit on this stage, it's only 2kms longer, but how cruel would that be though if you got all the way to the top of the final climb of the race on the second to last stage and you were ejected for finishing outside the time limit.

The Route

Right from the start this is going to be a battle - the climbing starts right from kilometre zero as they head south-east out of Guillestre and up to the Col De Var. It's a two-step climb with the first 7kms pretty steep at 8.3%, then flattens out for 4kms before rising again for the last 7kms at 6.1%. It's a tough opening 19kms to the stage and there are sure to be attacks all over the climb. I'm not sure the GC men will kick off this early, but it's possible, Movistar and Astana might look to strip SK of all his support as quick as they can. They spend almost the whole day in France, only dipping back in to Italy for the finish with 10kms to go. 

A 22kms descent takes them to Jausiers and the foot of the next climb which they start climbing straight away. Next up is the Col De La Bonette and this is a monster climb that averages 6.9% for 21kms before easing off a little at the top. From the top they descend for 40kms to Isola and, again, there is no flat road in between the climbs, they just start climbing again straight away on the Colle Della Lombarda, another monster climb at 20.6kms. The first 7kms are steep at 8.7%, then it's 6.3% for the next 7.5kms, then the last 4.5kms averages 7,6%, with the last few kilometres over 8%. 

As they cross over the top of the climb they enter in to Italy again and descend very quickly for 8kms. With just over 4kms to go, the road becomes very twisty and there could be some who will look to take out an advantage over the weaker descenders before the final 2.3km climb to the finish.  

The last 2kms averages 9.7% and is a real test after a really tough day, it hits 11% in parts. The roads for almost all the stage are wide and with good road surfaces, but it does get a bit narrow and tricky coming off the descent of the Lombarda. The final stretch of road is quite narrow, with a few hairpins. The last few hundred metres of the route run among the Sanctuary’s buildings, with short uphill stretches and tight bends.

Contenders

This stage is going to be awesome. And I'm going to be in a ferry crossing the Irish sea while it is on, with no internet access and no TV! Something else to keep in mind though is that there is a danger that this stage could be affected by the weather on the high mountain peaks, but it looks like they should be ok.

I had half written this preview ahead of tonight, but literally have had to go back to the drawing board after what happened today. The race was blown apart and now Nibali, who was 75/1 on Betfair this morning, is now joint even money favourite with Estaban Chaves who was 9/1 this morning. 1/4 favourite in the morning, Kruijswijk is now 20/1.. Zakarin is out, Kruijswijk might wake up tomorrow very stiff and sore and it could be that we just see a head to head showdown on the final climb between Nibali and Chaves.

This is going to be carnage from the start - if Astana push it on the first climb, then forget about a break - most guys will just be looking to hang on for as long as possible, before a big grupetto is formed on the first climb and a group of maybe less than 40 riders will go on to the second climb. By the top of the Bonette we could be down to less than 20 riders in the GC group, possibly less than 10 like on stage 16. The descent might see it come back together a little bit, well at least some of the last guys dropped might be able to chase back on.

But will Astana be willing to go full gas from the start with Kruijswijk probably out of it now? It might be that they wait until the Col De La Bonette to start pushing it, and if so then another big break might be able to get away and build up a healthy lead this time. And from the break I'm going to go with the same candidates again for the same reasons as yesterday. Roche, Dombrowski and Atapuma. 

Michele Scarponi has been riding well all race, pulling the Astana team up every key mountain in the race. He has spent a lot of uphill kilometres at the front of the race in the services of Vincenzo Nibali and probably should have won today's stage on a normal day. Will he be left go in the break again as a reward for his work today? Or will he be tasked with pulling Nibali in to a race winning position? I think it might be the latter.. I wouldn't even be surprised if Scarponi rode for Nibali and after they dropped everyone Scarponi is given the stage by Nibs at the finish! 

Mikel Nieve has a stage win to his name and a good 2nd place today, so Frosty is probably pretty pleased that Landa went hom earlier in this race, he may not have had the opportunity to go for it otherwise. He could be one for the early break again, if it has a number of strong climbers like him, it could make it. And he has a real strong shout of taking the KOM jersey too - he has been climbing far better than Cunego lately and could well seal the deal by leading over the first two climbs, something I wouldn't be surprised with. And if he lasts out front all day, he could attack on the Lombarda to shed his rivals or even go to the last 2km uphill section, he will like that finish. Someone is clearly in agreement as they are trying to lay £1900 at 1.85 on Cunego on Betfair and trying to get £700 on Nieve at 2.3..

Can Rigo Uran save his Giro on the very last chance? He improved today to finish in 7th with Valverde and Majka, could he save his Giro with a big ride tomorrow? I don't think so.. 

I think the break has a chance, it may be that the break goes and the GC men prod and probe a little, but might save themselves for a big attack on the Lombarda, but by that stage the break might be too far ahead. I think the break might start out with 20+, but by the time they reach the top of the Lombarda I wouldn't be surprised to see less than 10 in it, maybe even a solo rider or two. 

But of course, we now have seen several days where we thought the break would make it, only for the GC teams to blow the race apart long before the even the half-way points in the stages. Chaves can just sit on the wheels tomorrow and follow, he doesn't need to do anything else. This could mean that when they come to the final, steep uphill pull to the finish, Chaves could be perfectly placed to explode away and take the stage. He did look pretty tired today though and he has history of fading towards the end of the Grand Tours he has ridden. He is 9/2 across most bookies, and that's not screaming out at me to back. 

Nibali is only 13/8, but as short as 5/4. Two days ago you'd have laughed your head off at a price like that, but after yesterday, you'd have to say it could well be his Nibs again tomorrow. He has to go on the attack, he has to win the stage by 35 seconds to take the Giro (if Chaves is outside the top 3) so he has to go for it hard on the Lombarda, not just on the way up, but also on the way down. Chaves is a good descender so it will be hard to shake him off, but if he shows any sign of weakness again, the Shark will bite.. Can Kruikswijk pull off a miracle and wrestle the jersey back off Chaves at the last moment? I don't know about that..  

It's a nightmare trying to guess this one, the bookies make Nibs favourite for the stage, but they're not sure he'll pull back enough time to win the race overall, it's basically a coin toss between Nibs and Chaves in the overall betting, both are more or less even money. Nibali went deep today, can he go as deep again tomorrow? One of the big powerhouses in SK could be out of action and Valverde and Majka don't look like they can blow a front group apart. So it might come down to a duel up and down the Lombarda and on to the final climb. I think Nibali has the edge there and also just the old, wise, experienced head can make the difference over the new kid on the block. But I have a feeling he will not take enough time and Chaves takes the race overall - Uran has even come out tonight and said he will help Chaves win the race for Colombia, maybe the likes of Atapuma will do so too.. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Vincenzo Nibali at 13/8 with PP or Betfair

0.4pts each-way on Joe Dombrowski at 25/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way on Nico Roche at 80/1 with WillHill

0.3pts each-way on Darwin Atapuma at 25/1 with Ladbrokes

2pts win on Nieve to take the KOM prize overall at 5/4 with various.

Matchbets

Nibali to beat Chaves and Roche to beat Lopez - 2.5pts at 11/8 with PP

Dombrowski to beat Formolo, Ulissi to beat Preidler, Majka to beat Uran - 2pts at 9/4 with Bet365