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Published on Friday, 06 May 2016 07:44

Giro d'Italia St 2

Arnhem  to Nijmegen

Saturday 7th May, 190kms 

A flat run around Holland for 190kms, with nothing on the profile that should cause any problems to anyone it would seem. What you won't see on a profile though you might see on a weather forecast, particularly the wind forecast. The wind can really whip up around these parts and we could see plenty of echelons and possible splits. 

We may see a splits and possibly a reduced peloton fight hard over the closing two circuits of the city to reel them in, but the most likely outcome I think is that we will see the race come back together in time for a frantic charge through the streets for the last 5kms. There are a considerable amount of top-class sprinters here for the race, most of the best sprinters are here - Kittel, Greipel, Ewan, Viviani, Nizzolo, Modolo and MSR winner Arnaud Démare. There are lots of other 2nd tier sprinters here too like Ruffoni, Sbaragli and Marezcko so it should be a real battle for the honours of taking the first road stage of the Giro in 2016.

There's an interesting little section they go through at Berg en Dal as they approach Nijmegen, climbing up the easy side of the hill first, then coming at it from the other side 10kms later, a side that averages over 6% for 1.1kms, with parts hitting 11%. This could be the place where the likes of Trek and FDJ will look to split it and put Kittel under pressure, but even if he does get dropped here there's still over 30kms to go to the finish and that powerful EQS should get him back in to the peloton again. He'll need to crack really badly on the hill and lose over 30" I think for that not to happen, and as he was climbing well in Romandie to hang in there and take stage 1 he probably will be alright.  

An interesting TT today then, with Dumoulin landing the gamble by hunredths of a second.. incredibly close, the bookies must have been praying as he approached the line, he was hammered in to and went off odds on in places, evens best. Cancellara did indeed underperform but the hard luck story of the day was Roglic who will have nightmares about the time he came within a fraction of a second of wearing the Maglia Rosa in the Giro. It was such a surprise, not a single bookie had made a price on him, it would have been a spectacular result for them to start the week..

It was a brilliant performance too from our man Amador, even in my wildest dreams I didn't expect him to finish 3rd today and show just how strong he is. He leads Nibali by 13", his team-mate Valverde by 18" and Landa by 34"! We need Valverde to take a tumble or get caught in a split in the next few days and slip down the field so the Movistar team get behind him!

Nibali did a good TT, but so too did Marcel Kittel to finish 6th, it was a stunning time and shows that he is absolutely in top shape at the moment. The matchbet treble landed with him at 2/1, Bobridge won his match bet, but even despite crashing, Stefan Kung managed to beat a poor time by Vorobyev. Van Emden also crashed but was 6" behind at the time, but at least our saver on Dumoulin made it a 3pt profit on the day, an ok start. Amador ihas shortened up to 66/1 after his great ride, Kruijswijk and Dumoulin have also shortened a little. There were really poor rides by Houle, Formolo, Firsanov, Pozzovivo and Brambilla who all lost around 50". Not a great start for Majka though, not quite as bad as Landa but he lost 38", finishing in 60th place. 

Ewan, Grosu, Pelucchi and Marczko just pottered around the course, finishing in the bottom 9, with Mareczko dead last. All are saving themselves for tomorrow and the day after. 

The Route

Another route with not a lot to say about it for the most part - they start in the southern outskirts of Arnhem and head north first for 30kms before turning left and heading south-west until they reach Tiel after around 80kms. They then head south-east for 75kms towards Berg en Dal where the road starts to get a little lumpy, rising to the heady heights of 95m! First they climb up to Berg en Dal from the easy side and it's just a gentle rise but then the road goes out on a little loop for 10kms before coming back to Berg en Dal from the other side where they will climb the first KOM hill of the race. 

The road up the steep side at Berg en Dal is 1.1kms long, but averages 6.5%, with the last 400m closer to 10%. The road carries on toward Nijmegen where it enters the final circuit of 8.6kms which they do twice. There are a number of roundabouts on the final circuit to deal with but it generally is pretty straightforward with lots of long straights. There's a gently arcing right-hand bend with 650m to go but the finishing straight is more than 500m long and nice and straight. 

The hill at Berg en Dal will put some of the sprinters under pressure if raced hard (which it will be), but as there are 35kms still to go from the top it's likely that we'll still see a sprint finish. One thing that they'll have to be careful with though will be the wind, it's quite possible that we will see splits caused by the wind out in the countryside. The forecast is for a very warm day of up to 23 degrees, with winds forecast to hit 13-14mph in the afternoon. 

Contenders and Favourites

We'll get the usual break away attempts, possibly with some of the Dutch riders Bram Tankink, Maartin Tjallingi, Martin Keizer etc. but it is likely to be brought back together in time for a sprint finish on the finishing circuit. It will be all about staying safe on the circuit and getting to the last kilometre near the front and through that last right-hander in prime position. 

Etixx have the main man in Marcel Kittel, and he certainly looks the man to beat. He warmed up for this with a good stage win on Stage 1 of the Tour of Romandie, but it was closer than expected with Bonifazio almost beating him - but to even be there at the finish was a surprise for many, most expected him to be dropped with the hills on the stage. So it was impressive to be there and it wasn't a surprise a little sting was taken out of his legs.

It was his 8th win of the year though and his 68th in total as a pro and it looks like the big German is back to his best. With a strong team to support him, with the likes of Jungels, Sabatini, Trentin and Serry he is sure to be dropped off in pole position with 200m to go and he should do the rest. He just needs to make sure he doesn't get caught on the wrong sides of any splits in the winds, something you wouldn't rule out happening with Kittel. EQS should be sharp enough to keep him in the right position though, or drag him back in to contention if he gets dropped over the Berg en Dal hill. 

His biggest danger could well be one of the smallest men in the race, in Caleb Ewan. The little Australian is a powerhouse of speed but it's been a pretty low-key start to the year for him in Europe. Two stage wins in the TDU and one in the Herald Tour was a good start to the year, but since returning to Europe he has only raced five road stages at KBK and Tirreno, with a 2nd place behind Gaviria in stage 3 of Tirreno his best result. 

He too has a superb team with him here to get him in to the right position, with Tuft, Howson, Bewley, Bobridge, Hepburn and Mezgec lining up in front of him in the leadout. He is excellent at surfing wheels too, so expect to see him fighting with Viviani for Kittel's wheel coming in to the last kilometre. But then he went to Yorkshire last week and was pretty poor as far as I was concerned. He was too soft in the sprint on stage 1 when Groenewegen nudged him out of it and he lacked the speed to come back at him.

On stage 2 his performance was even worse, his team disappeared until about 300m to go and then he only had one man try to drag him in to position, but he didn't seem up for the fight and quickly disappeared again, ultimately finishing 30th, a pretty disastrous result for a 5/6 favourite. His sprinting style looks quite dangerous to me too and in the hustle and bustle and chaos of an opening stage of the Giro I would be nervous with my money on him.

One of the guys he's likely to be fighting with though is Elia Viviani, there aren't many others who are prepared to scrap for a wheel like the tempermental Italian. His team are nowhere near as strong as EQS or OGE, it's a team full of climbing types, but then again, Viviani doesn't particularly need or like a leadout at times, he prefers to surf wheels looking for the right one and pounce late using his track speed. Winner of two races this year, one of which saw him defeat Kittel in De Panne, he's also had a couple of 2nds and 3rds, one of the 3rds was behind Ewan and Gaviria in Tirreno. I think Viviani should be right up there, but I think Kittel has come on a lot more since Viviani beat him in De Panne and with the powerful EQS behind him I don't think Viviani will be beating him again today. He is an expert at surfing other trains though, so we could see him as one who could come closest to Kittel.

André Greipel has had an eventful start to the year, with some good early-season victories in the Mallorca races, but then crashed in the Algarve in late February and damaged some ribs. Although he kept racing to keep good fitness levels up it clearly hampered him as he was not competitive in sprints for a while. Although he did finish 3rd in stage 4 of Paris Nice he abandoned shortly after, abandoned Gent-Wevelgem and didn't win a race again until the Tour of Turkey last week. But as Lotto had managed to get 6 out of 8 riders in to a break that went to the finish, if he didn't win that sprint he may as well give up sprinting.. I'm not sure what to make of Greipel for this, he will have recovered by now from that injury and the week of hard training in Turkey will have stood him in good stead.

He's never one you can rule out in a big sprint stage like this, but sometimes it takes Greipel a few stages to get going in races and maybe with the lack of high quality sprints he's contested in recent weeks he may be a little ring-rusty. The team he has here with him wouldn't be the best they could put out, but is still quite a strong bunch of guys. They look like they are coming here with a lot of puncheur/attacking types in the hopes of stage victories though with Wellens, Vanendert, Ligthart, Roelandts and Bak, a few of which could try an attack over the little hills as they approach Nijmegen.

Giacomo Nizzolo has frustrated me greatly in the past, none more so than three weeks ago in the Tour of Croatia, where he finished 1st, 2nd, 1st in the opening three stages, a race where there was no betting available from any of the bookies! Nizzolo has been the nearly man too often in the past, but he has been a pretty good guy to back each-way, often at decent prices. The opposition wasn't great in Croatia though, bar Mark Cavendish, but he's not exactly the rider he once was these days. He prefers days when the course is a bit harder and lumpier as he can climb better than most sprinters, but in a flat-out sprint like this one against the likes of Kittel and Ewan, I can't see him beating them. His chances will depend on whether Trek and a few other teams can force a split in Berg en Dal.

MSR winner Arnaud Démare is another who has to come in to the reckoning for a stage like this. Winner of the first stage in La Mediterannée, winner of the first stage in Paris-Nice, winner of Milan-San Remo, he seems to go well fresh this season. He was 5th in Gent-Wevelgem, but that masks the fact that he 'won' the sprint behind the Sagan/Cancellara break, but then crashed out of Flanders a few days later. He hasn't raced in a month since then but has been away on training camp with FDJ, so it will be interesting to see if he comes here fresh and ready to win again, or if it will take him a few days to get his racing legs back. 

Sacha Modolo has been in good form last week with two stage wins in the Tour of Turkey, but to say the opposition was poorer than what he'll face here would be an understatement. He will have a good lead-out with the likes of Mohoric, Koshovoy, Ulissi and Ferrari and Lampre aren't afraid to put themselves about in the last kilometre. Modolo always goes well in Italy (ok, this is Holland!) and in last year's TDF he won two stages, beating Nizzolo, Viviani, Greipel and Pelucchi. He could be right up there again in this stage and at 16/1 he could be worth a shot each-way. 

Matteo Pelucchi is another Italian who will be fired up for this first stage of the Giro and has been going ok this year too, but hasn't managed to land a win yet, he's had three 2nd places and two 3rd places. I think he will do well to break his duck in this sprint and I think he'll struggle to land a podium too, 5th to 10th for me. 

Although Cannondale, BMC and Astana don't really have any guys here who will be fighting it out in the sprint, there are a number of other guys like Kristian Sbaragli, Jacub Mareczko, Diego Ulissi/Roberto Ferrari just below the level of the top guys above could get involved. Marezcko has been a surprise package this year, beating his 'Italy' team-mate Viviani in a stage in San Luis at the start of the year and in the last six weeks he won a stage in Coppi e Bartali and a stage in the Tour of Turkey, beating André Greipel.

Mareczko could be a revelation here in this race, but the question is can we strike with him while he is still a big enough price or will he go down in glorious failure in 5th or something and then be marked down to a siily price from then on? He was 40/1 for this stage, has been clipped in to 33/1, but it will take a massive performance for him to get ahead of the likes of Greipel, Ewan, Viviani, Demare, Nizzolo and Pelucchi. 

Eduard John Grosu has been suffering from a knee injury for a few months and the team are struggling to get to the bottom of it. He was riding in support for Colli in Turkey but seemed to get better as the week went on and was reportedly pleased with his form at the end of the race. I want to watch him in this stage to see how he goes, he's 100/1 for it but could go close. 

I think Kittel will take all the beating though and Etixx-Quickstep should maouever him in to position nicely with 2-300m to go and he'll do the rest. Viviani and Modolo should come close to him, with Greipel, Nizzolo and Ewan scrapping it out for places 4-10.  

EDIT - 17:45 - After Kittel's fantastic performance today I'm even more confident he will win this sprint tomorrow. He looks incredibly strong and focused and I think he will be far too strong tomorrow. Etixx looked strong too with Jungels, Wisniowski, Serry and De La Cruz all finishing in the first 45 on the stage. 

Giant-Aplecin say they are confident of doing well over the coming stages too and Nik Arndt has been going well lately with two 3rd places in the TDY last week. I think he might go for the sprint again here tomorrow and could manage a top 15 placing and that might be enough to win his match bet against Sbaragli. He's also against Jakub Marezcko and it's possible that the chaotic finish of the first day of the Giro might see Marezcko finish behind Arndt.

Recommendations:

3pts win on Marcel Kittel at Evens with various (you might get 5/4 on Betfair when they open their market)

0.5pts each-way on Elia Viviani at 8/1 with Skybet

Matchbets:

Hofland to beat Démare - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Greipel to beat Ewan and Viviani to beat Démare - 2pts on the double at 6/4 with PP

Pelucchi to beat Mareczko - 2pts at 5/4 with PP

Arndt to beat Sbaragli - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Arndt to beat Marezcko - 2pts at 6/5 with PP