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Published on Thursday, 26 May 2016 21:32

Giro d'Italia St 19

Pinerolo to Risoul

Friday 27th May, 162kms 

Here we go then! In to the Alps and a brutally hard stage which contains the Cima Coppi at the top of the massive Colle Dell'Angelo. It's the first of two crucial stages in the high mountains, two days that could reshuffle the entire top ten again - can they finally crack Kruijswijk?

Not much to say about today's stage, just glad I didn't get heavily involved.. The break was a wide diversity of rider types and more importantly, of teams, meaning that there was little incentive from behind to chase. Lampre didn't seem bothered about Ulissi's chances, as they sent two men in the break and did nothing to chase, maybe Ulissi was not feeling well today or fancies it tomorrow or something, as he finished more than 10 minutes behind the GC guys today.

Brambilla was 5/2 in play with still something like 175kms still to race and traded to short odds-on in the closing stages, only for his backers to be mugged by a brilliant ride by Matteo Trentin. It was a fantastic smash-and-grab by Trentin, but also a great bit of team riding by Brambilla who could have gone balls-out in the last 600m to not let him catch on, but instead sat on.. Moser didn't even see him coming. It was a 1-3 for Etixx, but there were two eye-catching rides, one from Modolo who proved one of the strongest climbers in the break and finished 4th, the other from Nik Arndt who followed his 3rd on yesterday's stage with a 5th today. 

The GC men engaged in some shadow boxing but there were no major changes or points to note really. Vincenzo Nibali did seem to look like he was trying to either prove a point to himself or to others as he was very prominent on the final climb, leading them over the final part and on to the descent. Kruijswijk was fine, Chaves looked to be just about hanging in there and Valverde and Zakarin were comfortable enough, but I think they were glad of a relatively easy day with what lies ahead in the next two days.  

The Route

They start in the finish town of stage 18 in Pinerolo and head south for 45kms on more or less flat roads to Piasco, then turn right and the road starts rising straight away on the way to the Colle Dell'Angelo. They are actually climbing for over 67kms by the time they reach the top of the Angelo, but the official distance of classified part of the climb is 21.3kms. The road gets steeper as they head towards the top and the last 7kms are particularly hard, averaging over 9% and hitting a max of 15% in a number of places. 

The top of the climb is 2,744m high, the highest point in the race, with the first rider over the top winning the Cima Coppi prize. The descent from the top takes them in to France, descending for 45kms to Guillestre, passing through some tunnels on the way. They pass through the town of Risoul with 150kms gone and start the climb up to the ski station finish. It's another Cat 1 climb that is just over 11kms long at an average of 6.9%, but the last 3.3kms averages over 8% as it winds its way up the hill. There are something like 15 hairpin bends in the last 10kms as it twists and turns its way up the mountain.

Contenders

This is another shortish stage at just 162kms and if it's anything like stage 16 after the rest day it's going to be wild. That day the GC men caught everyone off guard, including most of us who had expected nothing to happen until the last climb. Will we see the same thing again here? Will the GC guys look to blow the race apart again on the first climb? It's highly likely that we see them try to attack Kruijswijk again on the first climb in an effort to shed all his team-mates like on stage 16. Or could it be that we see the opposite this time from a bunch of tired riders?

I think it could well be the same again though - there are some, not a lot, but some riders who still have lots to play for. If Kruijswijk has a bad day, the 3 minute lead could disappear. And even if they fail to break him or take too much time off him, they might do enough to weaken him ahead of the killer blow on stage 20. 

Last time around, Ilnur Zakarin kicked things off on the first climb of the day and set in motion an explosion amongst the GC men. He is looking stronger as the race goes on and you can only wonder where he'd sit in the GC if he hadn't had all those problems in the 2nd TT. He is only 7" behind Nibali though and senses blood I think, if they can attack Nibali again, they will, he looks there for the taking at the moment. Zakarin sacrificed his stage win chances on stage 16 in order to put as much time between himself and Nibali as possible, and it worked, as he took nearly 2 minutes out of him. It meant though at the finish he had nothing left and actually gave away 8" to Kruijswijk and Valverde. This time around, if they get a gap of a minute or more on Nibali on the final climb, you might see him sit in a little more and maybe try to go for the stage win. 

Vincenzo Nibali as I said had looked particularly vulnerable and he could well slip down the GC even further tomorrow. But he looked a bit stronger today, or at least put on a show of defiance on a short little hill. Could we see him stage a remarkable recovery? It's certainly possible, I wouldn't put it past Astana, but I don't think so.

Alejandro Valverde has been getting stronger as the race has gone on too and this finish will suit him really well. He is only 23" behind Chaves and if he is on a good day, and Chaves struggles a little like he did on stage 16, he could well move in to 2nd place. I think he will do what he can to chip away at Chaves' lead and the time bonuses at the finish would of course help with that.

Speaking of Esteban Chaves, he had a really strange stage on stage 16, he seemed to come out of the rest day a bit sluggish. He missed the first real decisive GC move of the day, and although he pulled the gap between the two groups back to around 15" at one point, he was not able to make the junction. It cost him time on Kruijswijk and puts him in danger of slipping back to 3rd if Valverde keeps up the pressure. He said that it was just a lack of concentration at the wrong moment that cost him the time and that he had good legs,it's hard to know, as he did seem to go really well in parts when driving at the front, especially on the steeper parts. That was on the heels of doing so well to win stage 15 though with a briliant and canny ride. Hard to say how well he was really going today but I thought he looked a bit sluggish again.

So which Chaves will we see tomorrow? Well, if it was just a loss of focus, then I'm sure he won't let it happen again (or Matty White certainly won't!). I think he was a bit unlucky on 16 though as the guys out front went full gas all day and he was unable to make the bridge. Normally, when a stage plays out like that and some GC guys go up the road, there's a lull at some point and guys 20-30" behind get a chance to get back on. And I think this is why he didn't panic earlier and paced himself, he expected it to happen - only it never did. They never let up at the front. Judging by how well he went in parts when pushing it, I think he'd probably have been fine if he'd managed to stay with the lead group. But can he win this stage? Yes,it's possible. Will he win the stage? That's a different question! And at just 4/1, I think I would be a layer than a backer at that price.

Rafal Majka seemed to me to be sick or something, as the fabled 'he gets better in the 3rd week of a GT' line about him doesn't seem to be working this time around and he lost 47" to Valverde on stage 16, although he did finish a minute ahead of Pozzovivo and Nibali. Today though he was right at the front, pushing things on the final hill, although again, 450m is a far cry from 13kms of climbing. He did win a stage of the Tour in 2014 from a breakaway to Risoul though, so he must like the roads here. 

Steven Kruijswijk is 4/1 joint favourite with Esteban Chaves, and he has looked the strongest rider for the whole of the race and has been able to cover moves with such ease that he has made it look easy. 4/1 though? With a stage that could be blown apart early on and a good chance that the break can make it, I am not backing him at that price. 

As you know by now, I have been waiting to back Joe Dombrowski for the whole of the Giro, as I know he has been waiting for these two stages. BUT - he has said that the stage he is targeting the most is stage 20, but he also has his eye on 19 too. 

"I happen to know stage 20 because it's not so far from where I'm based in Nice. A number of us will train at altitude at Imola 2000 which is on the French side, because it's super roads for riding and it's only 90 minutes from Nice. I know the roads around there super well. Additionally, my family and some friends will be in Nice at that time and they'll be there to watch stages 19 and 20. I'm really looking forward to that."

I think 20 is the stage I want to really back him on, but there's a good chance that he will try to get in the break tomorrow too seeing as he said family and friends are going to be at the finish. He is 50/1 with Corals and I'd suggest you take that as soon as possible as he is being backed everywhere else - he opened at 40/1 with Paddy Power, but is now just 22/1. He has been riding really well lately and pushing out some big power numbers, he just needs to get in the right break and make sure he doesn't get dropped on the descent off the first climb so that he can tackle the last climb and just go flat out for the last 12kms. 

I give the break a good chance of staying away again today, and this time I'd like to give Nico Roche another try. I think this is a good stage for him and he has been riding better and better as the race has gone on. He was in the favourites group again today and that final climb's steady gradient will suit him better than steeper, irregular climbs. He's 66/1 for tomorrow, compared to the non-sensical price he was today of 18/1, on a stage I think that suits him better! He also should know the roads around here well as his dad has the hotel in Nice and he lives in Monaco.  

His team-mate Mikel Nieve is ridiculously short at just 12/1, but is available at 20/1 with Corals. It was his birthday today, but he didn't get a chance to go out and try to get himself a birthday present. He too could get in the break, but also he could sit in and ride with the GC favourites and try attacking in the last 4 or 5kms. 

If Nibali struggles tomorrow it might free up Jacob Fuglsang to have a go on the final climb, but at 25/1 I think it's a bit short. Igor Anton has been riding better lately, he could go on the attack, as could Alessandro De Marchi, although he has been riding so poorly I couldn't trust him at 66/1 and definitely not at the stupidly short 25/1 with PP. He did win a stage of the Criterium Du Dauphiné in 2013 to Risoul though, holding off Chris Froome. 

Darwin Atapuma is another though I'd like to keep onside for this stage, he too seems to be in good form and will like this steady, not-so-steep finishing climb. He came home with the little group with Visconti, just 16" behind the Valverde group today, he was not with the GC men on the final climb so he must have recovered well and finished very strongly. 28/1 is not a great price, but he is a good candidate for the break and might be worth backing on Betfair for a trading bet at a bigger price. 

At bigger prices, Ruben Plaza at 125/1, Matteo Montaguti at 150/1 and Stefan Denifl at 125/1 could be breakaway candidates too. If it does come down to a GC finish, it's hard to pick who can win it - Zakarin has a chance, Chaves has a chance, Valverde has a chance, Nibali, if he's recovered, has a chance. It's hard to split them, but with Nibali struggling and Valverde possibly going to struggle at altitude, I might just rule them out. And that leaves Chaves and Kruijswijk and I am not interested in backing them at just 4/1 or so, I think they will probably still be around the same price starting the last climb if the break looks catchable.

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Nico Roche at 66/1 with various

0.3pts each-way on Joe Dombrowski at 50/1 with Corals

0.25pts each-way on Darwin Atapuma at 28/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 125/1 with Paddy Power 

Matchbets

Visconti to beat Ulissi - 3pts at 8/11 with PP, I think Visconti could be near the front of the race today, not sure Ulissi will

Atapuma to beat Siutsou - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Zakarin to beat Valverde - 2.5pts at evens with Bet365

Kruijswijk to beat Nibali, Atapuma to beat Siutsou and Anton to beat Kudus - 2pts at 5/2 with Bet365