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Published on Tuesday, 24 May 2016 21:32

Giro d'Italia St 17

Molveno to Cassano d'Adda

Wed. 25th May, 196kms 

After a day for the climbers, the remaining sprinters in the race finally get a chance to have some fun again. The opening 40kms are a little lumpy, including crossing a Cat 4 bump with 100kms gone, but from then on it's a flat run to the finish in Cassano d'Adda.

Well what a day we had today then. There was no gentle re-introduction to the race after rest day, it was full on from the very start, and it was absolute chaos out there from a GC point of view right from the start. The average speed for the stage was an astonishing 44.3kmph, faster than a lot of flat stages, and they covered an incredible 54kms in the first hour of racing. It meant that the time limit was going to be around the 19 minute mark, and it looked like there could be a very large group of riders miss the time limit and give the organisers the headache of letting them all off or chucking them out!

As it turned out, even the Grupetto were going full-gas today as they managed to finish two minutes inside the cut-off, last man on the road, surprisingly, was Carlos Betancur. Up front, the race was blown to pieces - Nibali started attacking, Chaves and Majka got tailed off, but were holding a gap, then Valverde, Kruijs and Zakarin eventually got away from Nibali and suddenly the Shark was in deep water without a paddle. He lost almost 2 minutes by the finish and Zakarin is now just 7" off of Nibali's 4th place. It was funny too to see Zakarin having a go at Firsanov for pulling Nibali up the climb, he was like "COMERADE? WHAT THE FUCK??!!" Kruijswijk was outstanding again to land yet another 2nd place, his 3rd in a row! The GC looks sewn up now with a 3 minute lead over Chaves. 

And Valverde - I started yesterday's preview by saying he should win, I ended it by saying he should win, but did I have a bet on him?!? No, on a day where I didn't see much of the action, I was not able to get any decent prices, he was just 2/1 when I checked in. Kudus won his matchbet, the top matchbet double won, but Nibali falling away cost us the 3rd matchbet, with 20kms to go it was winning, but he fell back and Majka passed him out. 0.75pt loss,  annoying as we really should have been on Valverde at 8/1..   

So a bunch sprint then tomorrow right? Nearly 100kms of a flat run to the finish should probably mean yes, but that may not be the way it turns out. Riders are getting tired, this is the 17th stage and after that war today and with two brutal stages to come on Friday and Saturday there may be a truce called between the GC men. That could mean a strong break could make it all the way and with so few sprinters left in the race, who's going to do the chasing?

Giacomo Nizzolo and Sacha Modolo are the only top sprinters left in the race, with a few lower-level guys like Grosu, Zabel and Haussler who could find themselves fighting for a podium spot for a change, rather than 15th to 20th place. But unless Trek and Lampre spend the day riding at the front, there mightn't be too many teams going to contribute much to pulling the break back. 

The Route

This looks like a pretty boring route - they head south-west for 134kms before turning right and heading due west to the finish in Cassano d'Adda. The opening 15kms out of Molveno descends rapidly, then they climb over the little lump at Bondo after 38kms. The road then descends for more or less 55kms more and then they climb the only categorised climb of the day, the Cat 4 Passo Sant'Eusebio. Once over the top there's 96kms to go to the finish, with almost all of it more or less on flat roads. 

It's straight, flat and boring all the way in to the town. The weather is going to be beautiful again, but they will have a slight head-wind all the way in to the finish, not too strong though, only around 7mph. The route gets a bit tricky inside the last 3kms though, with a sharp left with 2500m to go, then a sharp right around a roundabout with 1700m to go sees the road rise a little as they get over the Ponte Adda bridge. There's one last sharp right with 600m to go but the finish is nice and wide and flat, if indeed we do see a bunch sprint, they'll have plenty of room to weave all over the road. 

Contenders

So what's it going to be? Sprint or break? Hard to say, but as I mentioned already, the big factor weighing against the sprinters left in the race is that there are so few of them left. Of the top fifteen on the opening stage in the Netherlands, only Modolo (3rd), Porsev (6th), Sbaragli (8th), Amador (9th), Nizzolo (10th) , Simion (11th), Arndt (12th) and Grosu (14th) are left. And you couldn't really call Amador, Simion and Arndt sprinters if you were being really cruel.

There really looks like only being one of two winners here in Nizzolo and Modolo, and as you'd expect they are the top two in the betting, with Modolo at 9/2 and Nizzolo at 10/3 with Paddy Power when they opened, Bet365 came out later with Nizzolo at 7/4 and Modolo at 5/2. Will we finally see Sacha Modolo turn the tables on Nizzolo? Ever since the opening sprint, when Modolo got up to take 3rd, Nizzolo has finished ahead of him. He has looked to be the fastest sprinter of the two of them up to now, especially when it's a bit tricky at the finish, which is unusal as Modolo is usually the master at the tricky finish.

Rather significantly though, Trek have lost three very valuable riders for Giacomo Nizzolo on a stage like this - Cancellara, Boy Van Poppel and Ryder. He still has Bobridge, Coledan and Didier, but they are shorn of firepower for out on the road and at the finish to set Nizzolo up, it's a big worry and may mean he will be sprinting for the second or third step of the podium this time. With Ulissi creeping up on him for the points competition though (he's only 8pts behind him!) he will need a good result here to stretch away from him again. 

Lampre on the other hand are only missing Niemiec and he wouldn't have been too much of a help in this run to the finish anyway. Sacha Modolo still has Mohoric, Ferrari, Koshevoy and Ulissi to drag him in to position at the finish, and that firepower might just be enough to see him take the stage win. But, they have to be there at the front of the race as they arrive in to Cassano d'Adda, and not looking on as they come to the finish to the break guys already doing interviews.  

And it's going to be hard - the early climbs and rolling countryside will allow a strong break to go, and with so few teams willing to take up the chase, if some of the sprinters teams get men up the road in the break, then it could be curtains for the sprinters chances. 

Of the remaining sprinters that are left, Rick Zabel has been coming close, with with a 7th and two 9th places. If you remove the guys that have gone home (Greipel, Demare and Hofland) he would have been 4th. BMC have had a pretty poor Giro by their standard though, with De Marchi flopping so far and Atapuma coming close but not quite taking the top spot of the podium. Maybe De Marchi, Rosskopf and Atapuma are waiting for this weekend, but for now they should ride for Zabel to see if they can get him a podium spot. At 66/1 with Bet365 he's worth a small interest, he's only 33/1 with PP.

Alexander Porsev has been coming close too, with two 5ths, a 6th and a 7th. The last sprint in Bibione saw him finish '3rd' behind Nizzolo and Modolo and in stage 3 only Nizzolo beat him of the riders left in the race. Katusha have nearly a full squad and they are pretty good at grinding out the kilometres to try to set him up. They might be Trek's biggest ally today - if Porsev can come to the finish near the front he has a big chance of at least moving on to the podium. At 12/1 he's tempting for the each-way bet, I think he should run Nizzodolo closest.

Enrico Battaglin has also had a few good results, with 5th place on stage 7 his best result, but it was '3rd' behind Nizzolo and Modolo. With Hofland gone home he is their undisputed top sprinter, but I don't think they will do a tap all day and just sit in or ride tempo protecting SK and thinking about the days ahead. I am half tempted to give Eduard Grosu a go in this company but he has crashed a few times now and he is getting no support in the sprints, he's had to do it all himself

Kristian Sbaragli, Manuel Belletti, Ivan Savitskiy, Sonny Colbrelli - they could all be knocking at the door as well, but one other outsiders that I want to have a nibble at is Heinrich Haussler. With the formal announcement Monday that IAM will not be continuing with their sponsorship of the team in 2017, all of the IAM riders are now in the shop window and have to start producing results to attract interested teams. With such a weak lineup of sprinters left in the race, Haussler won't get many better opportunities to win a stage in the Giro. They may send riders in the break to cover that angle, but if not, they could be one of the teams pushing hard to impress and try to set up Haussler. At 50/1, he can maybe take advantage if any of the top guys in the betting slip up. 

This should be an interesting sprint with the top sprinters missing - it could get a bit messy and we could have guys like Navardauskas, Trentin, Wisniowski and others trying to get involved as well and it could be every man for himself. I think there are still enough teams interested in making this a sprint finish to deny the break, but it could be close.

I am going to plump for Modolo finally getting the better of Nizzolo though, but I think there are a few other guys at big prices we can scatter some small bets on in case it does get really messy and we get a surprise winner. Even if Porsev lands a podium at 12/1 it will be a nice return. Zabel winning at 66/1 would be even nicer! Unfortunately the 9/2 I got on Modolo first thing didn't last long, I had backed him each-way at that, but now as he's just 3/1 it has to be a win bet I think. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Sacha Modolo at 3/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Alexander Porsev at 12/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Rick Zabel at 66/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Heinrich Haussler at 50/1 with Bet365 

Matchbets

Ulissi to beat Visconti and Porsev to beat Sbaragli - 2pts at 6/4 with PP

Zabel to beat Sbaragli - 1.5pts at 11/10 with PP

Sbaragli to beat Belletti - 10pts at 4/5 with Ladbrokes - he finished the stage today but was very sick and was taken to hospital with chest problems.. He might not start tomorrow, but if he does (it's an 'easy' flat stage after all) then you can't see him beating Sbaragli. If he doesn't start, we get our stakes back anyway.