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Published on Friday, 20 May 2016 22:12

Giro d'Italia St 14

Alpago to Corvara 

Saturday 21rd May, 210kms 

After a tough day on the mountains on Friday, the riders now tackle the Queen stage on what is a brutally tough day in the saddle. 210kms long, with six categorised climbs and an uphill finish to boot in the Dolomites mountains, this could finally be the day that the GC men really come out to play. 

This stage starts brutally hard with more or less a 70km climb to the first KOM points of the day at the Passo Pordoi, and with six KOM peaks along the way this will be a big day for the KOM jersey competition. The autobus will be formed early on this stage with that opening climb, and with a stage as long as this they will have a job on their hands just to make the time limit. 

Isn't it bloody typical that the only guy I have gone win-only on at biggish prices in the whole Giro so far comes 2nd on the stage!! I hope some of you took some each-way with a regular bookie, he gave it a great shot and I thought he might catch Nieve at one point, but it wasn't to be. He would have taken him in the sprint too I think which is annoying. At least he landed a very tasty 13/8 matchbet with Ulissi, who was riding well, but as I suspected he might he faded away and came home 28th, over 4 minutes down.

Atapuma also beat Anton to land that match bet, but although Roche was up there at the front until near the top of the final climb, he faded away to lose out to Montaguti who had been part of the earlier break and hung in there when the GC men came past. So a tiny 0.5pt profit on the day, maybe more for those of you who might have backed Visconti each-way, but it keeps the winning run going at least, four winning days in a row.. 

Behind the drama has started to build. Jungels finally cracked and lost the pink Jersey to Amador, who now leads by 26". Jungels is still in 2nd, 15" ahead of Nibali. Amador was under pressure for a while and was left behind when Nibali and Valverde started exchanging blows, but clawed his way back to take pink. He even tried an attack over the top of the last climb, but the way he was dropped was a little worrying, the dream might be fading for us!

Nibali attacked, but it wasn't all that impressive, pretty limp, like his attack earlier in the race, I think on stage 4 maybe. He was easily reeled in when Kruijswijk stepped on the pedals - he was pretty impressive today too, always looked pretty comfortable. As did Chaves and Majka, they are still very much in the hunt for this race. Zakarin got caught on the wrong wheel when the attacks came at one point but managed to get back on to the lead group pretty easily, so he can't be discounted either. So all to play for still, Nibali did a surprisingly good sprint though, taking Valverde to steal some bonus seconds, but he still looks like a weak and vulnerable favourite to me!

The Route

The first 23kms or so are flat, but after that there's barely a flat metre of road for the rest of the stage. They head north-west out of Alpago and once they pass Mas after 23kms they start climbing. The road climbs for the next 71kms, but the official climb of the Passo Pordoi is 9.3kms at a very steady 6.9%. As they head towards the climb of the Passo Pordoi they start on to the figure of eight loops that takes them over the finish line once before heading away over two more climbs before coming back to the finish. 

Over the next 40kms they crest three more climbs, two Cat 2s and a Cat 3. After 159kms they start on the hardest part of the stage with first the climb of the Passo Giau, followed soon after by the Passo Valparolo. The Passo Giau is a real nasty climb that doesn't dip below 8% for the nearly 10kms of the climb. The first 3kms average nearly 10% and it stays hard all the way to the top which they crest with 41.2kms to go. They descend a tricky descent for 10kms and start straight on to the Passo Valparola.

The Passo Valparola is longer at 11.5kms but easier, with the first 2.7kms averaging 6.9%, then 2kms at 1.9%, before the last 7kms rise at a much steadier gradient of 6.8%, kicking up to a max of 14% in the last 500m. From the top there are less than 20kms to go, so a strong attack on this climb could see someone go all the way to the finish.

A 15kms descent takes them to the tricky last 5kms - with 5kms to go they hit the Muro del Gatto, a nasty kicker that averages 13.4% for 500m, hitting a max of 19%, before the final 3kms pull to the line that averages around 3%. The last 3kms are pretty straight, but with there is a left-hand bend with 150m to go to the finishing straight. The second climb of the day they pass, the Passo Sella is the 'Pantani mountain' of this Giro d'italia, to remember his feat with Giuseppe Guerini on June 3rd, 1998. On that occasion he crossed the Passo Sella to arrive to the finish line of Selva di Val Gardena, taking the Maglia Rosa.

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be a brutal stage, a day after the tough day in the mountains on stage 13 and a day before what could be a pivotal individual time trial on Sunday. It is another unusual stage for a Grand Tour though in this year's Giro, as you couldn't really call it a summit finish, as the last kilometre averages only 2.4% and there's even a flat 500m just preceding the flamme rouge. 

But it's what goes on for the 209kms before that that marks this as the 'Queen' stage, perfect for a Saturday afternoon prime TV audience. The break has a real chance of making it today as it will be very hard to control the race over this terrain and I don't think there will be many riders left at the front of the race by the time they hit the last two climbs, particularly the Passo Valparola - the Passo Giau will have thinned out the remaining stragglers to leave only the strongest climbers at the front. We saw that today and it was an easier stage, there were only about 20 riders in the race with 40kms to go. 

This will mean that the likes of Movistar and Astana will probably only have 3-4 riders in the lead group each, Katusha, Orica, AG2R, Tinkoff and LottoNL may only have their team leaders, maybe one more and then you'll have a random scattering of stronger guys like Hesjedal, Firsanov and Jungels. This means that if a break has a lead of a minute or two starting the final climb they have a chance as there will not be many guys pushing hard and they will also be thinking of the TT the next day, none of the GC men will want to go too much in to the red. Once over the top of the final climb there is a 14km descent where the break will hold their lead more than likely and then its a pretty fast run to the line, excluding the 500m at 13% with 5kms to go. 

The GC men might have a chance - if, the race really explodes - and by that I mean if someone like Nibali, Amador, Zakarin, Majka etc attack early, gets a gap, gets assistance from team-mates that were originally in the break and suddenly the favourites have to ride their socks off to reel in the danger. If that is the case, and say Nibali for example attacks away over the top of the Giau and flys down the descent, then he could start the final climb with 30"+ and will be going full gas, followed by Movistar and the rest of the GC men, also going full gas. If that is the case then the break should be doomed. 

Picking the break candidates isn't easy though with probably 50+ guys potentially going to try to go up the road. And it might not just be one break either, an early break could go, then a second break could go on one of the next climbs and try to bridge to the leaders. And then you have to try to figure out who will be sent up the road by the GC teams in case their team leaders need them later in the stage if they go on the attack! 

The usual suspects - Damiano Cunego, Alessandro De Marchi, Tim Wellens, Stefano Pirazzi, Guillaume Bonafond, Matteo Montaguti, Manuel Bongiorno, Giulio Ciccone, Darwin Atapuma, Riccardo Zoidl, Ruben Plaza, Prem Niemiec, Georg Preidler - loads of guys that could be in the break. But there's getting in the break and being strong enough to finish it off, and so far we've see the likes of Zoidl, Niemiec, Preidler die long before the finish, so that's putting me off them, this is going to be a very hard day, right from the start of the 210kms they have to cover. 

I'm tempted by the likes of Joe Dombrowski, I was both pleased and annoyed that he went on the attack today, I have my eye on him for stages later in the race where I think he has a big chance. Adam Hansen might fancy taking a flyer today, Merhawi Kudus and Igor Anton could be the Dimension Data representives in the break, we may even see two or more of some teams in the break, like today, if we get a break of 15-20 guys go. Nico Roche could try again, he was going ok today and up with the front group when he suddenly slipped backwards, looking at his bike like he had a mechanical or something, and never got back on again. Likewise we could see Mikel Nieve, David Lopez or Phil Deignan join him in the break, Deignan hasn't had a chance yet to stretch his legs, and unless the team is being asked to look after Henao for the young riders competition, or Nieve for the KOM, then they should be given free reign to attack. 

Behind there will be a massive GC battle though and we should hopefully see some real attacking and proper action from the GC favourites, it's time to start making moves if you are the likes of Zakarin, Chaves and Majka - they should maybe even have a chat before this stage and agree to attack Valverde, Amador and Nibali, as if they can get away and get time back, all three will be in with a shout again. 

Valverde has sucked wheels mostly up to now, Nibali's attacks have been average, Chaves has been good but still not exploding away, Zakarin has been dropped a few times today, Amador was dropped a few times today, Kruijswijk and Majka have been looking really good without doing very much, they could still be dark horses to me. But as for tomorrow? Valverde and Nibali are way too short. Gianluca Brambilla might be able to hang in there tomorrow, he did very well today and finished in 23rd, just behind Jungels after dragging him for most of the last 6kms and ahead of Hesjedal. 

I am really struggling to find much value anywhere else, some of the prices are truly appalling, Valverde could win, but I actually think Nibali might have a better chance given the descent to the finish. But at those prices I'm not interested, if I change my mind mid-race I think I'll still get him at close to the price he is now. I think I'll give Roche another go even though he's pretty short, and maybe Carlos Betancur will have a go tomorrow too, he saved his legs today, coming in 25 minutes down. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Gianluca Brambillat at 33/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Nicolas Roche at 25/1 with various

0.25pts each-way on Carlos Betancur at 125/1 with Paddy Power

Matchbets: 

Kruijswijk to beat Uran & Scarpone to beat Jungels - 3pts at 11/8 with Paddy Power

Brambilla to beat Siutsou - 3pts at 4/5 with Bet365

Formolo to beat Jungels and Kruijswijk to beat Pozzovivo - 2.5pts at 4/5 with Bet365