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Published on Wednesday, 18 May 2016 21:28

Giro d'Italia St 13

Palmonava to C. Del Fruili

Friday 20th May, 170kms 

After a completely flat stage we have the polar opposite today with a stage that features two Cat 1 and two Cat 2 climbs and an M & M like profile. The opening two climbs will soften them up, the final two climbs come in quick succession inside the last 40kms and will provide an exciting climax to the stage.

Well that worked out pretty good again today to land a third consecutive day of profits and take our profit from the last six stages to almost 40pts. We had a clean sweep with Greipel indeed landing the win, and you could have got a very tasty 6/4 on Betfair with 50kms to go on the stage. The neutralisation helped of course, and it was all pretty tame in the end on the finishing circuit, those hoping for carnage in the wet for Modolo to take advantage of were left disappointed as he finished out of the placings in 4th place. 

Nizzolo was on great form today, winning points at the intermediate sprints and landing 3rd place in the sprint, and even my shout for Ewan to be the other runner-up was spot on.. The match-bet double landed too with Porsev comfortably beating Arndt. With those points today and with Greipel going home now, Nizzolo leads the points competition by 27pts from Demare, with Modolo up in to 4th place. Nizzolo is now as short as 2/5 for the jersey, so if you are of a nervous disposition and are on from the 5/2 we backed him at after stage 3, trade out of some now or back Ulissi and Demare.  

On to stage 13 then and as the final climbs summit comes 14kms from the finish it may not be decided by the strongest climber on the day, it could come from someone who can attack on the tricky descent which bottoms out with just over 7kms to go, or even from a reduced bunch sprint. And that's not even considering the fact that a break has a big chance of making it on a day like today - the early climbs will tempt a strong breakaway to go and they will build up a big lead over the opening two climbs as the GC teams look to save energy for the second part of the stage. If they underestimate them, or indeed are not worried about the break winning it and taking the bonus seconds, then they have a chance of making it.  

The Route

A challenging route today for teams to try to control the race on. They start in Palmonova and head north for 29kms where they pass on the outskirts of Cividale al Fruli, not far from where the finish line is, and shortly after enter the twisting figure-of-eight circuit that takes them north-east first before looping around back past the finish line again after 111kms. They now head north-west for another loop of 60kms that take in the final two climbs of the day. 

There's a good possibility that we'll see Nizzolo, Démare, Greipel or Modolo fighting to get in the break as there is an intermediate sprint after 41.8kms which is ripe for picking up easy points. They may even sit up after that and roll home in their own time. Shortly after the sprint point with 49kms gone they start on the first climb of the day, the Cat 1 Montemaggiore, a nasty start to the day at nearly 9kms at 9%, with the last 6.5kms averaging 10.5%. We are sure to see the first big stripping down of the bunch here and the autobus formed.

The twisty 15kms descent is interrupted along the way by an uncategorised climb for 4kms at the Passo San Martino (7.6% for 2.3kms), but once they are at the bottom with 72kms gone they immediately start back on to the climb to Crai. This Cat 2 climb comes in two waves, the first 4kms of the climb average 9.7%, hitting a max of 16% near the top, then they descend for a km or so before the next 4km stretch which is an easy 3.6%.

Once over the top it's a 20km descent to Scrutto, then 30kms along flat roads before they reach the first of the final two climbs with 40kms to go. The Cima Porzus averages nearly 9% for 7kms, with a pretty steady gradient all the way up. 11kms of a very twisty and dangerous descent follow, I can count something like 18 hair-pin bends on the descent, it's going to be spectacular to watch. The final climb to Valle starts with just over 20kms to go, and we could see some riders start with a small advantage if they descended better/braver than others. 

The climb to Valle is another twisty and tricky affair with close on 15 hair-pin bends along the way. It averages a steady 8.5% for the last 5kms, and peaks out with just 13.9kms left, of which 6.6kms are descending and 7.3kms of a flattish run in to Cividale del Fruli. 

Contenders and Favourites

I think this could be one of the most exciting and dramatic stages of the race - it has the hallmarks of a stage which, if he was here, Alberto Contador would have attacked from the first or second climb. It's not that long at 170kms so a strong early break could make it, but if some teams sense weakness in their rivals over the first two climbs it could be all out war over the final two climbs.

Lots of riders have lots of time to make up, but are still in with a shout of winning this race. Some might gamble on leaving their efforts to the final two mountain stages, but it might be all over by then, they should look at these sorts of opportunities to try to put their rivals under pressure. One very important thing to think about though when considering the potential winners of this stage and whether a break will make it, is that there is a very tough stage on Saturday and the uphill TT on Sunday, two crucial stages in the remainder of this race, there could be some big swings again in the GC.

I have a feeling that a lot of the GC men are biding their time and waiting for the TT to be over with. If guys like Chaves, Majka and Zakarin do well in the TT, they will be right back in the race and it will make for a fascinating last week. If they don't do well and the likes of Amador, Valverde or Nibali do, then we might see them give up on GC ambitions and go stage hunting. 

Vincenzo Nibali looks like one who will like this stage - the late climb to Valle with a tricky descent off of it should suit him to a tee. Will he look to make a move this early though, or wait until later in to the third week? He has to start pegging some time back soon though, he currently sits 45" off a very confident and comfortable looking Andrey Amador. Astana suffered on stage 11 and will be looking to take revenge on a stage like this, they could send guys up the road early on, get the likes of Fuglsang to attack on the penultimate or final climb etc and get the other favourites chasing.

That could free up Nibali to try a late attack on the Valle climb, descend like a maniac and join up with Fuglsang for the last 7kms charge to the line. He has to be considered as a strong option for this stage though on that basis, but he will need to escape away from his big rivals though as he won't win a sprint against most of them.

He certainly won't win a sprint against Alejandro Valverde though, and Valverde has to be considered a strong favourite for this stage too given the finish is at the end of an 8km flat run to the line. He has been very poor value favourite for two stages already though and would have burnt your fingers if you'd backed him, so it's a brave move to get on him now at just 9/1. He does look to be in a great position to win the stage though, he should have little problems getting over the final climbs at the front and he has a really strong team with him to deliver him to the line, from where he should beat most of those likely to be in the leading group.

Of the other GC favourites, you'd think that Ilnur Zakarin has his eyes on the tough stage the next day and the TT on Sunday and might look to save his legs and follow wheels for now. But of course, if the opportunity presents itself he could well go on the attack, but I think with that flat run-in it will not be in his favour and he might just bide his time for the TT and the final week. Esteban Chaves likewise, he might attack, but I think it would be foolish unless he thinks he can put a minute in to the others going over the top. 

Steven Kruijswijk though is one that could have the balls to attack over the top and descend quickly and would have the power to keep it going all the way to the line. Whether he will try that two days before the TT is another question. Rafal Majka needs to make up time too and has looked lively at times, has been very prominent at the front, but has missed some of the moves when they came, like when Valverde, Nibali and Chaves almost got away on stage 11. I don't think he has the power to stay away from these guys in a pursuit to the finish, so again, maybe he'll wait for an uphill finish to try to make his mark.

The only riders that seems to be prepared to throw caution to the wind and attack wherever and whenever are Andrey Amador and Bob Jungels. Amador has attacked a couple of times for small gains, but it's been his descending skills that have helped him get and keep gaps - this could be another chance for him to attack again, either just before the top again or on the descent, and once at the bottom use his TT engine to power to the finish. I think he will do well in the TT though, so he might save himself, but if he is looked after well all day he might have the legs to have a dig to try it out without going too much in to the red. If it fails on the run in, he'll just sit in and roll home in the same time as the rest.

Bob Jungels continues to 'Do a Dumoulin' as in, people are asking 'When will he crack?' - but he hasn't shown any signs of that yet and has even gone on the offensive. Could this be the day that he finally cracks? He can afford to lose some time though and still could retake the Maglia Rosa on Sunday if he hangs in there Saturday and if he does a really good TT. I can't see him attacking again, but with the form he's in at the moment you just couldn't rule it out.

Another rider who could have a go late on in the stage would be Jacob Fuglsang, especially if Nibali is looking to save his legs for the TT. He has attacked on similar climbs before, like when he attacked with Dan Martin in the Tour de France in stage 9 to Bagnéres de Begore in 2013, they attacked near the top, descended really fast and held off the pack in the 20kms descent to the line. I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull off a similar trick, and at 3'39" down, he's not a major threat, but could pull himself back in to the top 10. At 40/1 I thought he was worth a go. 

That's all the options from if it's a possible GC battle on the last climb, but another rider who's not really in the GC battle, but riding really well is of course Diego Ulissi. It will be a real hard task for him to hang in over these last two climbs, but he has proven already how well he is going in the hills with two stage wins to his name. If he is near the front coming to the top he might fancy a go, he may well be let go as the GC men watch each other again. But at 22/1 it's too short for me, and definitely too short at 14/1 with PP. 

And then of course you've the breakaway candidates - lots and lots of them. Damiano Cunego will probably be after the KOM points on a day like this, so expect him to be in the break. I don't expect him to win it, but he should be trying if you think he can pull it off. Alessandro De Marchi was fancied before the race for the KOM competition but he has been pretty anonymous so far, maybe he has been waiting for later in the race where the big points are, he tends to go better later in races too. His price is a joke though at 11/1 with PP, the 16/1 with Bet365 is a little better, but not much. If you think the break of the day will make it though, he's likely to be in there and give you a bit of excitement for the day.

Ryder Hesjedal is on the border of being considered a GC threat or not, and may try a break, but again, he might be waiting for next week to go all in. Nicolas Roche is one who could fancy this stage, the climbs aren't too vicious and now with Landa gone he could have a free card to do what he wants. 25/1 is a bit skinny, but I think he will be keen to try a break soon and this looks a good stage to try it. 

And then you have all the Italians - Pirazzi, Ciccone etc - they are sure to be interested in a stage like this, but hard to pick which ones are likely to go - Giovanni Visconti could be sent up the road again though in Movistar's tactic, either to see if the break of the day makes it, where he would have a chance, or to help a late attack by Amador or Valverde. He is not a great price at 18/1 with most bookies but there is 23/1 available on Betfair and that's worth a bet, to trade in running possibly too. 

Darwin Atapuma has shown good legs and an attacking instinct, finishing well to take 3rd in stage 10 behind Ciccone and Rovny, he could well get in the break again and could be worth a small interest at 40/1. Konstantin Siutsou could also get in the break for Dimension Data, Matteo Montaguti for AG2R and Davide Formolo for Cannondale.

A really hard stage to call though - I will dabble a little with a few breakaway candidates and have Fuglsang for a late attack. I'm tempted by Ulissi, but I think it will be too hard for him. Valverde and Nibali could well light it up and I wouldn't be surprised to see Amador try a move again on the final climb, would be great to see him take 30" or more again on his rivals, he could be 5/1 tomorrow night if he does. I'd love to see the likes of Zakarin and Majka go on the attack to liven things up but I think the TT will be at the back of their minds. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Jacob Fuglsang at 40/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Nicolas Roche at 25/1 with Bet365

0.5pts win on Giovanni Visconti at 28 on Betfair  

0.3pts each-way on Darwin Atapuma at 40/1 with PP

Matchbets:

Roche to beat Montaguti - 2pts at 8/11 with PP

Darwin Atapuma to beat Igor Anton  - 3pts at 4/6 with PP

Giovanni Visconti to beat Diego Ulissi - 2pts at 13/8 with PP