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Published on Monday, 16 May 2016 22:10

Giro d'Italia St 11

Modena to Asolo

Wednesday 18th May, 227kms 

After a day in the mountains it's back to flatter roads for stage 11, 200kms of flat roads in fact before they reach the final challenge of the lumpy hills on the approach to Asolo. It's the 3rd longest stage of the Giro at 227kms, and there will be some tired legs after that hard day in the hills the day before. 

Well it was a dramatic day today with lots going on. It started early with a break going that included two of my picks in Zoidl and Niemiec, but they just weren't good enough. Damiano Cunego threatened to make me look like an idiot for proclaiming he had no chance, but ultimately he fell short of a podium spot. Then suddenly we hear that Mikel Landa had abandoned citing illness (stomach bug) and all of a sudden the then favourite for the race was out. 

Up the road Ciccone took advantage of Pirazzi shoulder barging Cunego out of the way to attack on the descent and was never seen again, it was a really good ride by him. Behind Brambilla got dropped from the lead group and looked done for the day. Suddenly Amador attacked at the top of the penultimate climb with 14kms to go and flew down the descent. Brambilla got back on on the descent and then took up all the pulling for Jungels on the final climb!

Ahead Ciccone took a brilliant stage win, and Amador was flying, at one point seemingly a minute ahead of Jungels group and in the virtual Maglia Rosa, with prices down to 3/1 on Betfair being taken for the GC. But all of a sudden, as Amador rolled towards the line, The chasing group of favourites appeared in to sight just behind him, with Valmerde leading the chase home! So after being a minute up with less than 3kms to go, he made a gain of 1 second at the finish - there was something clearly very wrong with the timing.

It showed that Amador is absolutely flying though - he is ambitious and is feeling very strong. I think he will do very well in the uphill TT too next Sunday and could take another minute out of Nibali and the rest - he already has 52" over Nibali and over 2 minutes on the likes of Zakarin and Chaves. He is now down to as short as 12/1, 16/1 generally, and I think he still has a big chance. Majka, Zakarin, Chaves, Kruijswijk, Pozzo and Uran all rode steadily without really doing anything, Zakarin stretched his legs a little, but not much.

I'm glad I steered clear really of GC men bets, Valverde was only 8th on the stage, Fuglsang was 10th, Ciccone, Rovny, Atapuma were three that I don't think many were on. We eeked out a 3.2pt profit though, thanks to the matchbet acca at 15/8 landing and the Visconti to beat Fuglsang also winning. 

The Route

This 11th stage is a funny looking one on a profile, with what looks like someone pushed the right hand edge of the map in, wrinkling an otherwise flat line. The stage is two very distinct parts: the first 200kms runs almost dead flat from Modena to just before Asolo, while the last 27kms or so of the stage are far more challenging and lumpy leading into the finish.

The route runs across the entire Po Plain, partly on narrow roads, and partly on wide and mainly straight roads. The riders will need to beware of roundabouts, kerbs, speed bumps and traffic dividers while crossing urban areas along the way though, it's often on innocuos flat stages like this that races can be ended with one crash.

With just under 23kms to go, just past Maser, the road tackles a short yet very steep climb up Forcella Mostaccin that averages 7.8% for 2.9kms (with gradients topping out at 16%), followed by a technical descent (narrow at points) leading to the Monfumo hills and to Castelcucco. Here, a series of undulations will lead to the final Asolo climb. Five kilometres before the finish, the road climbs up towards Asolo along a 1km ramp with gradients of approx. 7% that leads into the old town centre through a mediaeval gateway and on a setts-paved stretch.

A quick descent on wide roads follows, up to the final km. The last bend is 900 m from the finish line, followed by a long home straight, just bending slightly, on 7.5-m wide and perfectly level asphalt road. Asolo was last a stage finish in 2010, Vincenzo Nibali won that time, but I don't think he'll be repeating that feat today. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is going to be a curious stage. 200kms of nothing worth watching probably, except for maybe some crashes - but nobody wants to see that. The break will go, but it could be a real dog-fight to get in to it and it might be a frantic and fast opening hour of racing until the break goes. The last 27kms are pretty interesting though, with the Forcella Mostaccin that averages nearly 8% and hits max gradients of 16% and the lumpy run in to the flat last kilometre. 

It looks like it will probably end in a bunch sprint of some sort, but with Kittel, Viviani, Pelucchi, Tsatevitch and Marezcko gone home already there are now less guys to consider (although I wouldn't have been considering them for this finish anyway). The sprinters will need to be able to climb and get over that tough climb when the race will be at maximum velocity and there is very little time left to get back on if they do get tailed off. There is another sprint stage on stage 13, a far easier sprint stage in fact, but as there are few chances left for them between now and the final stage in Turin, they'll be desperate for the win (and the points jersey points).

This finish is tricky though with a hard left just after 3kms to go and a hard hairpin right with just over 2kms to go, then a hard right with 1km to go. The last kilometre is straight and flat though, so if the trains can get themselves organised as they hit the 1km to go mark they will be in a good position as it will be hard to come by.

The break might make it of course, they'll have a slight tail/cross wind for most of the day and after a hard day in the mountains, the break might get a very big lead and with it getting messy over the last 27kms they might just make it. I think it will be pulled back by the sprinters teams though as their chances are few and far between from here on in. 

André Greipel was superb on stage 7, it looked like his chance was gone when he lost position and got squeezed up in the last 200m, but out he got and surged past Modolo and Nizzolo. That day AG seemed to get over the final climb quite comfortably, while Viviani and Kittel were dropped (but got on again eventually). The question is will he be able to hang on over the climb? Will he be dropped on the lumpy roads heading to the finish? Maybe - it will all depend of course on how hard his rivals ride it, and I expect Lampre and Trek to really gun it up there.

There could be some attacks too on this climb which could kick the whole thing off and it could break to pieces. Greipel will need to be near the front and will need to be dragged to the finish by Lotto, but he could make it. I wanted to see what price he was and at 40/1 with PP he was worth a shot I think.

Giaccomo Nizzolo is back finishing 2nd again with an unlucky 2nd place in stage 7, it looked like he had done enough to win it. I think he will be one of the better sprinters at getting over these hills and will have a strong chance of victory here. It would have been better if the finish was slightly uphill but if they have shaken Greipel he has a good chance of finally landing his stage win and will be keen to kick on now in the Points competition, for which he is now the 6/4 favourite, despite sitting in 4th place, 41pts behind Greipel. He is a big looking 22/1 to me, I want to be with him again. 

Sacha Modolo too will be keen to get up and land a win after his two 3rd places so far, and he too will be keen to move up the Points competition, he currently sits in 6th place. He has been right up there in a few sprints but missed out completely on stage 3 after he got caught up in Taaramae's crash. He too should be able to negotiate the final hills well and will be well looked after by Ulissi, Mohoric, Koshevoy, Conti and Ferrari to deliver him in to a good position. 

Arnaud Démare is still here too, maybe for just another few days, but while he's here, and with a lumpy run in to the finish like this he too has a chance. Two 2nds so far, he was no match for the big Germans. He disappointed though on stage 7 with only a 13th place when fancied, he will need to raise his game again I think to beat the top 3 from stage 7. 

Caleb Ewan was 4th on stage 7, but looked like he was going to win it as they opened their sprints with 100m to go. He faded badly, but still seems to be in good spirits and the team think that he is getting closer. I'm not sure he will get over the hills though and won't be backing him just yet, especially as OGE are not committing many riders to him as they are looking after Chaves. I'm actually hoping he pulls out after stage 13 as the points matchbet I had on Mareczko over him is losing as long as he finishes!

Matteo Trentin has been showing himself well lately, with a fine 6th place in stage 7 and then working his ass off for Brambilla's win on stage 8. It all depends on what he is tasked to do today though, as he could be asked to look after Jungels and/or Brambilla so he might have to foresake his stage ambitions. I hope they give him a chance as I think he could have a chance on this finish, either from a late attack from a small group or from a reduced sprint. At 22/1 he's worth an interest too I think.

Moreno Hofland has a chance of course again, he's finished 4th, 5th and 7th in sprints so far, but has yet to break a podium spot. I'm not sure he'll manage it here either, although if it gets really fast and hard over the closing hills, he could be one that might fare the best. LottoNL will be one of the stronger teams over the closing kilometres, but they tend to mess it up when it matters most a lot. 

It was Sonny Colbrelli's birthday yesterday and the Bardiani squad delivered a win on his birthday with that performance by Ciccone. He actually didn't do too bad himself, finishing 14 minutes ahead of the likes of Nizzolo and Modolo who were in the autobus. He would be one of the most likely of the sprinters to get over the final hills though, but he's very short I think at just 7-8/1.

After that you have the likes of Sbaragli, Ruffoni, Grosu, Battaglin, Belleti and Zabel could also go close but I think we could be looking at some of the same top 3 as we had in stage 7 with Greipel, Modolo and Nizzolo possibly involved, although Démare might be on the premises too should one of the three above falter. It's touch and go though whether the break makes it and breaks their hearts or whether even the sprinters make it over. I could be very wrong and none of them make it so keep stakes sensible tomorrow folks!

Recomendations

0.3pts each-way at 40/1 on André Greipel at 40/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Giacomo Nizzolo at 22/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Matteo Trentin at 22/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Trentin to beat Sbaraglli - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365

Nizzolo to beat Modolo - 3.5pts at 4/7