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Published on Monday, 16 May 2016 00:03

Giro d'Italia St 10

Campi Bisenzio to Sestola

Tuesday 17th May, 219kms 

Rest day's over and what a nasty welcome back to racing the riders face with the second longest stage of the Giro at 219kms, a stage that has four categorised climbs including the summit finish to Sestola. There are plenty of other little hills along the way in between though and it should make for a very exciting stage. 

What a dramatic TT it turned out to be as the heavens opened and none of the later starters came close to beating the times set by Roglic, Brandle and Stake Laengen, who had done their time trials in far dryer conditions. Roglic stunned again, this time he needn't have worried about Dumoulin taking him for the second time in a TT, the writing was on the wall a long way out for Dumoulin who went through the first intermediate time check in 15th place. 

Zakarin - what a horrible day he had - from being in 6th place at the first time check and going the best of all the GC men, with one hand on the pink jersey, he proceeded to crash twice and get two bike changes. How can you foresee something like that?! He ended up finishing in 54th, losing around 90" to Nibali and Landa. Winner of the day was Landa who was expected to lose several minutes, but instead now sits as 5/4 favourite for the race after only losing 7" to Nibali and making time on Valverde, Chaves, Pozzovivo, Zakarin and Uran. I still don't think he's out of it, but it will be extremely hard now, especially if he starts feeling stiff in that hip after coming down on it twice. 

Andrey Amador put in another fantastic ride, finishing 10th on the day, moving him in to 3rd overall again and from having popped out to 100/1 by this morning for the overall, he's back in to 25/1 again. He beat Landa, Nibali and Valverde by around a minute and could do very well on the uphill TT too. He should finish most of the mountain stages near the front, so he could continue to surprise in this race. Let's hope Movistar look after him too and he's not made sacrifice himself for Valverde, a thankless task I'd imagine. 

The rest day will be spent trying to recover from the hard week of racing they've already endured, and a particularly nasty and wet TT, but also preparing and thinking about this tenth stage as it could be a wild one. It's almost like an Ardennes Classic, at 219kms and with unrelenting hills all day, it's going to be a particularly tough day in the saddle. It's going to be a hard day to control for the GC men's teams, and sometimes after a rest day you can get a strange result as some riders react differently to a rest day than others. The last 35kms or so should be particularly wild with the climb of the Pian del Falco, the descent off of it and the climb up to the finish in Sestola. 

The Route

The route starts in Campi Bisenzio and they head north generally to the top of their trip up the centre of Italy, finishing in the ski station at Sestola. The first 22kms are flat as they head along the valley to Pistoia where they turn right and start heading north. The road starts to rise as soon as they pass Pistoia and they start on the first categorised climb of the day, the Passo Della Collina (15kms at 4.8%) over the Tuscan-Emilian Apennines. 

After dropping quickly into Porretta Terme and Marano sul Reno, the route climbs up again to tackle the Pietracolora categorised climb, leading into Valle del Samone (8.7kms at 6,1%). A short flat sector for 6kms is followed by a descent of 12kms and an easier descent for another 22kms. to Marano sul Panaro. Here they take a sharp left and start heading south, and the route starts to climb and descend constantly over the next 75 km, all the way up to the Pian del Falco KOM.

The Pian del Falco is a tough climb that tops out with over 200kms gone and only 16kms left to the finish. It averages 4.9% for 16.35kms, but comes in three parts. The first 4.5kms averages 6.9%, hitting 9.2% in parts. The next part is a lot flatter, averaging just 1.8% for 8kms and at the end of the flatter part they pass through the finish town of Sestola. They carry on climbing past the finish and it kicks up for the last 4kms at a steep 8.9%, hitting a max of 13%. 

They now head off on a zig-zagging loop south of Sestola (right) that first takes them down a fast and technical descent off the climb for 8kms to Fanano. The descent can be divided into two quite steep parts: the first one runs on large roads, with just a few bends, and leads into a second one where the road is narrower at points, and which twists and turns all the way into urban Fanano.

Finally, they tackle the final 7km climb, with gradients of 5-6%, on a wide yet winding road that leads into the final 100m long, uphill home straight, on 6.5-m wide asphalt road. The road climbs steadily all the way to the line with the last kilometre averaging 5.9%. 

Contenders and Favourites

Where do you even start on a stage like this?! A day after the rest day, and straight in to a beast of a stage over 219kms of hilly roads with a summit finish at a ski station! Not only do they have that finish up to Sestola, but the climb before it that ends with 4kms at 9%, a great opportunity for the really strong climbers to shed some of the weaker guys ahead of the final push. If Movistart or Astana, or even Sky, kick things off here there is a very fast and dangerous descent to negotiate for 8kms before the final 8km push to the finish.

The early prices out from Bet365 had Alejandro Valverde as the 4/1 favourite, and that's a price I am torn about. He hadn't started great to me but in the last two days he has started to impress a lot more. He was one of the key drivers of the attacks on the gravel road climb of stage 8 and won the sprint of the first group home after De Marchi. He put in a pretty good TT too on stage 9, finishing 22nd, just 4" behind Landa and 11" behind Nibali. 

Of course, on a finish like this with a steady gradient of 5% all the way for the last 7kms, he will have a good chance if it comes to a reduced group sprint. But I think that possibilty is slim and a price of 5/1 now with PP doesn't appeal to me much. The reason I say that the possibility is slim is that there is a good chance that the break of the day makes it, and if not, there's a good chance that the race could explode on the penultimate climb or final climb and we could get a late attacker take it. 

If we are looking at the break of the day, then the likes of Alessandro De Marchi and Tim Wellens are two likely lads, but 11/1 for both of them is frankly ridiculous. They should be about twice that price, and probably would have been last year but bookies are cutting prices shorter and shorter with every race that passes. Yes, they are likely to be trying to get in the break, but De Marchi just doesn't look strong enough to finish it off to me, he faded badly on stage 8 when in a great position. Wellens is a big danger in a break again, but will they just let him go again? I'm not sure. 

Bongiorno, Pirazzi, Hansen, Suitsou, Anton and Txurruka - all men who could fancy a day in the break, as could Premyslaw Niemiec - I picked him a few stages ago, I think it was stage 6, and he actually got in an early break that got 13" but were reeled in. I think he could try again, but 25/1 is a terrible price, was hoping for 50/1 or 66/1 or so - and in fact, PP have opened this morning with 66/1, he's worth a small bet at that. 

But if it does come to a GC favourites scrap for the finish, then it could be any of about 20 riders! Diego Ulissi is only 14/1, he could be a late break candidate too though now that he is nearly 3 mins down, but also if it comes to a sprint, he would definitely have a chance on a 5% slope like this - his problem will be the 4kms at 9% on the previous climb. Ilnur Zakarin is only 16/1, but he is going to be really fired up to make amends after his disaster in the TT. He has looked very strong when closing down attacks in recent races, both here and in Romandie, and he could well go on a rage attack in the last 5kms in an effort to get some time back.

Damiano Cunego is a laughable 16/1, he's the sixth shortest rider here which is insane, he hasn't a chance. Mikel Landa is 18/1 and he showed in the TT that his legs seem to be getting better after an iffy start, but when he has been tested so far in this race on the hills he has been found wanting a little. Unless the ride in the TT boosts his confidence and he is starting to feel his climbing legs, he might be happy to follow wheels for now, but if he is feeling good he could take off. Don't think he's a bet though at 18/1. 

Vincenzo Nibali has been lively too and did a good TT, and no offence to the top 4 in the GC, he currently sits top of the GC favourites with a 25" lead over Landa. He might look to put the pressure on and gain more time ahead of the really tough stages at the end of the third week which will suit Landa more maybe, but it will be hard for him to get away if his attack is anyway as limp as his attack on stage 6. 

That day the team orders were that Fuglsang was to attack and then Nibali after him. Fuglsang did his job well but Nibali faded after about 30" of effort and was pulled back in while Fuglang finished 2nd on the stage. Fuglsang still sits in 10th place though and could well try the 1-2 with Nibali again tomorrow and if they watch Nibali then he might be let go. Also, the finish suits Nibali though - he could attack at the top of the Pian Del Fanco and descend like a maniac, gaining time on more nervous rivals, and come to the final climb with 30" or so. He might be hard to pull back then and at 33/1 with Bet365 he's a bit more interesting to me, he's only 14/1 with PP. 

Tom Dumoulin had a poor last two days, with a terrible ride on stage 8 where he just had no power and fell out of contention almost like the last day of the Vuelta last year. He hadn't recovered for the time trial and finished a disappointing 15th, not a great result for the 5/4 favourite. I don't think we'll see him recovering in one rest day and riding away from these guys, in fact, I think he'll be dropped on the Pian Del Fanco so don't waste money backing him. He also came out today and said that he'll be deliberately losing time in the coming days so he can maybe go on the attack later in the race. 

Rigo Uran and Rafal Majka didn't have a great day on the TT bike, but were looking so much better in the hills before it. Both have time to make up and really can't hang about in trying to get it back, they both need to be aggressive. Hard to see either of them winning this one though, but it would be good to see some of these guys attacking to put the three favourites under pressure. Steven Kruijswijk has been riding extremely well for LottoNL, he did a pretty good TT on Sunday too to now sit in 4th place, so actually I was being a bit disrespectful to him earlier when I said Nibali was the top of the GC favourites.. He climbs well and is not afraid to attack, in fact he's one that could go from near the bottom of the final climb, he has a good cruising speed on climbs like this.  

Joe Dombrowski or Davide Formolo could give it a go for Cannondale, it's starting to come in to their territory now, and Giovanni Visconti or Carlos Betancur could give it a go for Movistar to tease out the others to go in chase to leave Valverde and Amador have an easier ride. At bigger prices, Blel Kadri (150/1) and Riccardo Zoidl (125/1) are two who could go on the break of the day and could have chances. 

It's a very hard stage to predict though and I'm close to making it a 'no bet' day on this first day in the mountains, with the possible effects of the rest day in the legs too. I'm tempted by a Zak attack, but want to try to find out more if he's hurt himself. The only rider I like, given how terrible the early Bet365 prices are is Fuglsang for a late attack at 33/1, but I'll think a bit more about it and keep an eye on news to see if there are any others that might look worth backing, I'll update this here on Monday night too. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Jacob Fuglsang at 66/1 with Paddy Power (Sorry - this should have read Premyslaw Niemiec as per the paragraph near the top of the preview above.. He's now only 28/1 and that's a different proposition altogether. Take 28/1 for a small bet each-way, 22/1 with PP is very short.)

Jacob Fuglsang was one I was interested a little in though as above, he's 33/1 across the board and worth 0.3pts each-way I think

0.1pts each-way on Riccardo Zoidl at 150/1 with PP

0.1pts each-way on Blel Kadri at 150/1 with PP

Matchbets

Valverde to beat Ulissi, Zakarin to beat Dumoulin, Chaves to beat Majka, Uran to beat Firsanov - 2pts on the four-fold at 15/8 with Bet365

Visconti to beat Kangert - 2pts at 8/11 with Ladbrokes