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Published on Tuesday, 01 May 2018 19:20

KOM Betting Preview

Who will win the KOM Jersey at the 2018 Giro?

The competition for the 'Maglia Azzura' for the King of the Mountains of the Giro is always a really hard one to call, as there are just so many riders who could have their eyes on this prestigious prize. 

It's almost impossible to know beforehand who is going to be aiming to try to win the jersey and it often only becomes clear on the first mountainous stage when someone goes off in a break and tries to win every point available on the day.. Getting an early lead in this competition then turns the rider in to a points maniac and they can often then go on to try to just pick up points all through the race to win the jersey.

This Giro could be different though with the backloading of a lot of mountain points in the final week of racing, similar to last year's race. Last year saw Mikel Landa start stage 11 without a single point in the competition, and with six stages to go he was 11th in the classification with just 20pts. But he went nuts from there on - scoring 104pts on stage 16 alone, 65pts on stage 18 and suddenly it was all over. He won stage 19 for good measure and finished the competition 106pts clear of Lulu Sanchez, with Fraile 14pts further back in 3rd. 

There was also a dramatic swing in 2016 with Damiano Cunego leading the competition and Mikel Nieve down in 6th place with just three stages to go. But Nieve also went nuts and picked up 48pts on stage 19 and 54pts on stage 20 to leapfrog over Cunego and take the jersey home. 

Like with the Points Jersey, the points are awarded in a scale depending on the toughness of the climb as follows:

The Cima Coppi - this is a special award for the highest point in the Giro every year, this year it is the Finestre on stage 19, where the first 9 over the top win the following points: 45, 30, 20, 14, 10, 6, 4, 2, 1. With this climb alone offering such a large amount of points it could completely change the top of the mountains classification, but there are still plenty of points up for grabs in the back-loaded race. 

If someone is targeting the jersey then it might pay to just tick along picking up points here and there to stay in contention and then going all-in on stages 18-20 to get the Cima Coppi and lots of points. A strong break should take the points as the Finestre is crested with 64kms still to go, and they could even hang on to the finish where they pass the Sestriere Cat 3 and another Cat 1 at the finish. That's a massive 102pts on offer in one stage if someone is really strong and committed that day. The climbs and points are as follows:

• Thirteen 4th category climbs: 3-2 and 1 points respectively
• Nine 3rd category climbs: 7-4-2-1 points
• Nine 2nd category climbs: 15-8-6-4-2-1 points
• Eight 1st category climbs: 35-18-12-9-6-4-2-1 points
• CC or Cima Coppi: The “Coppi Summit” for the highest point of the race. This year it is the Finestre on Stage 19. The first nine win 45-30-20-14-10-6-4-2-1 points

There are 562pts in total available in the race, 100pts less than last year, but there was the special Scarponi prize added in last year. There are 334pts available out on the course compared to 228pts at the finish of stages, a much more even balance than last year that saw 562pts out on the course and just 140pts at the finish, tilting the balanace a lot more towards the GC guys this year. When there are more points out on the course, the GC favourites tend to let others scrap out the climbs along the stages and just go hard in the final climbs.

The stage to Zoncolan, and stages 18-20 are going to be crucial for this though, especially stage 19 which includes the Cima Coppi, a strong break away rider will amass a lot of points late in the race and could shoot up the standings.  

Mikel Landa, Omar Fraile and Nairo Quintana were joint 13/2 favourites last year and they finished 1st, 3rd and 4th in the standings, with our 25/1 man Luis Leon honoring his fallen team-mate Scarponi with some big rides finishing in 2nd. This year it's a bit different with a real mixture of GC men and breakaway riders scattered around the top of the betting. 

M A Lopez is the 10/3 favourite, clipped in a little from the opening 7/2. He is an interesting one though at that price, as you'd expect him to be right up there at the forefront of the tough mountain-top finishes, but will he be bothered about the KOM jersey if he is really in the mix for the GC? We've seen the likes of Froome or Quintana in the past be a short price for the KOM jersey in races, only to not bother a jot about them, it's all about the GC. 

I'm not sure he'll be winning on Etna, but the Gran Sasso and Zoncolan could be more up his street, that is, if a break hasn't made it before them. Stage 19 will be important, with the finish to Bardonecchia, but will someone in the hunt for the jersey have hoovered up 67pts already that day in the break? With the battle for the GC that will be raging here, and with the stages likely to be spread around a little between GC men and the break, I think he's just a little short to be backing for it. 

Instead I'd nearly rather be on his team-mate Luis Leon Sanchez again at 16/1.. He will love some of these breakaway stages and could even score points on some of the flatter stages with punchy finishes. I guess the only problem with that bet is that he might be shackled by the need to look after Lopez, but Astana are just so damn strong they might be able to afford to send him up the road on some stages as the carrot, and in doing so he could pick up a lot of points. Then, if he's in the hunt going in to the last three hilly stages he might well be given free-reign to go for it, he's a likely candidate to take a load of points on stage 19, including the Cima Coppi again. 

Giovanni Visconti won this competition in 2015 and was 5th in 2016, but has also finished 3rd back in 2013, he knows what's required to do well in this competition. He didn't have a great time at all here last year though and came nowhere near winning it, despite being one of the favourites.. He abandoned on stage 20 too just to cap off a disappointing Giro for him. He didn't fare much better in the Vuelta later in the year and he hasn't done anything of note this year so far either.. I simply can't have him at just 10/1, he will be working for Bonifazio and Pozzovivo I think and will have to sacrifice his break chances..

Fabio Aru at 14/1? It's an interesting one too, because we know that on a good day, Aru can dance away and score stage wins. Also, it's interesting in that it might well be that he decides to go for this as he might not have much faith in his chances in the GC.. he'll lose time on the TTs, he might well lose time on Etna to throw them off the scent and gain a bit of leeway to attack later in the race..

So it all depends really I think on whether we think he's going to be fighting for the GC or not, as I think if he is, he won't win enough points on the stage finishes to win this competition. He might be caught between both actually, fighting for his life for a top 10 position, he may not be able to think about the KOM, but possibly by stage 19 he might be close enough in the KOM but far enough in the GC to try to go for it.. I just can't have confidence in any of that though with Aru.. 

Robert Gesink is also 14/1, and that's a curious one too, he's very similar to Aru. Will he be trying for a top placing in GC? Will he be riding for Bennett? I think he'll be riding for Bennett, and unless something takes Bennett out of contention in the last week and he's given free reign to try attacks, then I don't see how he will score enough points. He's been riding ok this year, but not great, he did finish 3rd in the KOM in the Vuelta in 2016, but not really done anything else in mountains competitions in the rest of his career. Another one to avoid I think. 

Mikel Nieve on the other hand has at least some history in this competition, winning it in 2016 fromCunego and Atapuma. In other races around that win he has generally been working for team leaders, but he got an opportunity there and he took it in 2016. He has missed most of this season through injury, starting his first race only in LBL a few weeks back, but he rode pretty well in Romandie, considering he was only just starting his season.

He took 5th in the KOM competition there, and showed how good his climbing legs were by taking 17th in the uphill TT. The question is, will he be working for Chaves and Yates? Will he be allowed freedom? Well, I think that Michelton might well just go for this race on many fronts and I wouldn't be surprised to see him up the road on a lot of the mountain stages. Also, the other thing you need to worry about is will the lack of miles in his legs see him fade in the third week when the race for the jersey really heat up? Might be worth waiting until week two to see how he's going and make a decision then as he might come with a late charge again. 

Giulio Ciccone of Bardiani could be the wildcard darkhorse here, not many will have heard of him, but he's been flying this year. He's just won the Giro dell'Appenino just 2 days after finishing 9th in the Tour de Romandie. He finished 4th, 6th, 8th and 11th in the stages and was very prominent all week. Before that he took 10th in the Settimana Coppi e Bartali, he seems to be coming in to very good form at the right time to peak here. He won a tough stage in the Tour of Utah last year too, taking 2nd place in the KOM competition. 

In the Giro in 2016 he got as far as stage 19 before he had to abandon, but he won the tough stage 10 to Sestolo over 219kms, but in 2017 he was nowhere to be seen, 37th was the highest he finished on a stage and didn't score a single KOM point.. He is still only 23 though, he's obviously improving, but I find it hard to trust a young guy on the up in a competition against old war-horses like Sanchez, Nieve and the like. 

Chris Froome is just 22/1 but I think he won't be bothered about the KOM jersey, Darwin Atapuma just seems to continue to play on the fringes and let his KOM backers down every year, Jarlinson Pantano might be stage hunting given the team they have brought here, but I'm not sure he's consistent enough for the KOM jersey, he might be tasked with looking after Nik Eg and Mads Pedersen, two guys who could surprise in this race.

Simon Yates at 33/1 could be one to watch too, he might go for the KOM and let Chaves go for the GC, but I'm not sure that strategy will work out for him. Alessandro De Marchi will try and try again to get in breaks, but I think he will time his attacks with the intention of trying to win a stage rather than trying to win the KOM jersey. 

And then you have Movistar - a team with no leader it seems, you can't really call Carlos Betancur a leader, unless you are looking for someone to organise the trip to McDonalds. A team of climbers, surely one of them has his sights on the jersey, the question is though, which one? Betancur just isn't good enough if you ask me.

Richard Carapaz has been riding well lately, taking 3rd in the Coppi e Bartali and winning the Vuelta a Asturias just last week, winning a tough stage with a finish not too dissimilar to some of these finishes, beating his team-mate Ruben Fernandez by 50". He finished 36th in his first Grand Tour at the Vuelta last year, he could be ready to step up here and free of the shackles of having to ride conservatively for Quintana or Valverde he might go well.  

Ruben Fernandez and Victor De La Parte will be stage hunting too I think, but not sure they are strong enough to go day after day for this competition, but we could well see several Movistar riders in breaks every day. And then you have Eduardo Sepulveda who has promised a lot but not delivered yet on the big stage and Rafael Valls.. I can't see them being consistent enough either.. So despite their team of climbers, there's not a lot of options for this competition from what I can see, Carapaz could be their best bet, unless he decides to ride it to test himself against the big boys of the GC and just ride steady in their wheels every day.. Let's see how they go on Etna before making a decision on Movistar I think.. 

I have backed Luis Leon Sanchez again this year after he rewarded us last year, and I actually think he could ride a big race again this year. I will be watching Mikel Nieve closely, as I will the Movistar guys and Ciccone and may add more in the next week or so

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 16/1 or bigger