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Published on Wednesday, 04 May 2016 21:50

Giro Jerseys Betting 

Who will win the Red and Blue Jerseys?

Not only does the Giro have a very different and distinct leader's jersey compared to the ubiquitous yellow jerseys of so many other races, but it also has slightly unusual colours for the winners of the Mountains and Sprinters jerseys of the Giro. The leader of the sprints competition wears red, the leader of the Mountains a deep blue. 

Points Jersey

The Giro's 'sprinters' points jersey can be difficult for pure sprinters to win, such is the amount of climbing that needs to be done over the three weeks. It's difficult, but not impossible - I picked Giacomo Nizzolo for it last year at 11/2, and he won it by 33pts from Philippe Gilbert. Nacer Bouhanni led a bunch of sprinters in 2014, but the likes of Nizzolo and Mezgec weren't far off either. Mark Cavendish won the year before that. Prior to that, Joaquim Rodriguez won in 2012 and Michele Scarponi in 2011,  with lots of climbers in the top 10.

So where does this route sit in terms of being climber or sprinter friendly? Well to me it looks pretty even, but does seem to lean more towards the sprinters, but more so towards the punchy, sprinters-who-can-climb-a-bit, like Nizzolo - and hence why he's the 6/4 favourite. 

How the points are awarded

The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage - the sprint stages offer more points in a bid to try to ensure the sprinters jersey is won by a sprinter!

For Category A+B stages (Stages 2, 3, 5, 7, 12, 17, 21) offer points for the first 20 riders in the following allocation: 50, 40, 34, 28, 25, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the Intermediate Sprints (marked TV on the route maps) there are points for the first 10: 20, 16, 12, 9, 7, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1 - with 20 points up for grabs for each TV they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey again like last year..

For Category C stages: (Stages 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 18) there are points for the first 15: 25, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first five: 10, 6, 3, 2, 1

Category D + E stages: (Stages 1, 9, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20) offer points for the first 10: 15, 12, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first three: 8, 4, 1

The Contenders 

Marcel Kittel is the best sprinter of the race and is sure to rack up a few stage wins, or high placings at the least in the first week, he looks nailed on to win at least one, if not both of the opening road stages in Holland. Stages 5 and 7 are likely to be within his grasp as well so by the 7th stage Kittel could well have quite a lead in the Points competition. Now the only question is, will he actually finish the race? The second, and particularly the third week are particularly hard and with a tough long TT in Chianti and the uphill TT too, Kittel might just pack his bags early and save his legs for the Tour. 

He did withdraw from the Tour of Romandie last week citing the need to recover from a cold, but I think that was just precautionary and he should be fit and well to start in Apledoorn. But if he genuinely had a cold, it may be that he starts, wins a number of stages in the first week or so then withdraws citing fatigue after his cold. The TDF is too big for the EQS team and they may decide to save him for that.

On the other hand though, if he does build up a big lead, and is feeling pretty good, he might just make it all the way, as stages 17 and the final stage in Turin look like being a sprint finish - and every sprinter would love to win the final stage of a Grand Tour wearing the points jersey. We may look back at the 12/1 available on him and kick ourselves for missing out on it. But I'm going to pass on it. 

Same goes for Caleb Ewan, he's seriously fast, is sure to get some good placings in the first week, but I think OGE will look after him and pull him out before the finish. 

Giacomo Nizzolo, on the other hand, we know can finish this race after winning the competition from Gilbert last year despite not winning a stage, taking two 2nds, three 5ths and a 6th and not finishing inside the top 100 on any one of the other 14 stages! He also finished 2nd to Bouhanni in 2014, thanks to four 2nd places, a 3rd, a 5th and a 9th place - he is also good at snaffling intermediate points along the way to help towards the jersey. Again in 2014 though, outside of those top 10s he was mostly finishing in place 130th or worse, so it goes to show that you don't actually have to win any stages to do well, just be consistent and pick up as many points when the chances are there. 

I picked him last year at 13/2 I think it was, but he's nothing like that price this year - 6/4 is the best you'll get with the regular bookies, you might get better than that with Betfair closer to the off. I think he has a great chance of winning it again this year though, he should be right up there in most of the flat sprints, taking top ten placings, will be there on some of the lumpier stages when other sprinters are rolling in 20 minutes down and will pick up lots of intermediate points too, getting in mountain stage breaks if he has to to seal the deal. I think he will also last the course too and will be there at the finish in Turin, unlike a lot of other sprinters.  

Another Italian who will be looking to impress on home roads of course will be Lampre-Merida's Sacha Modolo. He's had a much better start to the season than last year, I think by this time last year he hadn't pulled off many good results, just one stage win in Turkey, and it had put me off him at 6/1 or something like that. In the end he finished 3rd in the points competition behind Gilbert, despite two superb stage wins. This year though he has notched up a number of top placings, including a 2nd in Dubai, 2nd in Qatar and a 2nd and two stage wins in Turkey.. I think he opened at something crazy like 16/1 with Skybet, as they were pricing Kittel as the favourite, but that was snapped up by the shrewdies. The best that's available now is just 9/2 with jokers like Betway, the best proper bookies are offering is 4/1 with Ladbrokes.

I'm tempted to have a bet on him each-way as it looks like a 'bet to nothing' as they say - he should last through to the finish and he should be capable of picking up enough points along the way to push him in to the top 3 - with a bit of luck, or maybe a Nizzolo DNF, he could even win it. It apparently is his big target for the year and he is fully fired up to deliver it, backed up by a team that will literally put their necks on the line in order to get him on the right wheel coming to the finish. 

Another Italian with a chance who is around the 5/1 mark is Elia Viviani. He should be one of the fastest sprinters in the race but I think he could find himself riding solo in the final stages of races as the team is built around trying to help Landa to victory. Viviani has been in ok form this year, but not great form. His best results of the year were winning stage 2 in Dubai (ahead of Modolo and Nizzolo) and stage 2 of the 3 DDP (ahead of Kittel and Kristoff), but he's had a number of other top 10 placings too. 

The other problem, besides the fact he has no lead-out men, is Viviani just falls to pieces on any sort of uphill sections of road, and there are plenty of uphill sections of road in this race. I don't think he'll be consistent enough to win the jersey, although he could well take one of the flatter sprint stages. 

Arnaud Démare is another interesting one, does he aim for the points jersey here? Or will he be stage hunting? Winner of Milan-SanRemo in controversial circumstances, he can get over the lumpier, hilly stages and can fight out for a top 10 place on most sprint stages. With luck in running and with the abandonment of rivals later in the race he could come in to the running as an each-way shout. The question, like with most of the candidates here though is whether he will finish the race or not in order to be in a position to land the odds. He does tend to get lost in sprints sometimes though, so I think you're counting on him surviving and lasting through when several others have gone home. 

André Greipel is big looking at 28/1, but the German doesn't really win points jerseys much these days. He will struggle badly on the hillier stages and I think it's only 50/50 that he'll actually finish with the Tour to come as well. Sonny Colbrelli looks a big price at 80/1 if the Italian Bardiani man can last the three weeks and get involved in enough sprints. He could also get in some breaks which could see him net lots of intermediate and finish points, but it's unlikely he will finish high up in the main sprints so I don't think he'll earn enough points to finish in the top 3. 

Young Italian sprinter Jakub Mareczko is one that most eyes will be on though at the start of the Giro, to see if he can fulfill the hype and hope for him. He burst on to the scene this year with his victory over his 'Team Italy' team-mate Elia Viviani in the final stage in the Tour de San Luis. Riding here for his Willier-Southeast team he is sure to be involved in the sprints in the first week. A stage in the Tour de San Luis, a stage in Coppi e Bartali, a stage in the Tour de Lankawi and two stages in the Tour of Turkey (beating Modolo and Greipel) has shown that he can mix it with the big boys and come out on top.

He looks brave and fast and we could see a superstar in the making if all goes well for him. But he's 22. He's now up against the strongest field he'll have ever faced and against some of the best leadout trains in the business. Will he be able to muscle in to Kittel's wheel or Vivianis? Will he last the three weeks? Well if you think he can and will get to the last week when others have already packed their bags then he might reward those who took him at 28/1 and bigger. I am reluctant though. As for Matteo Pelucchi, he will probably crash out in the first week.. 

I think it is Nizzolo's again this year though but the 6/4 is very short. There is 8/5 available on Betfair and I think you would get money matched around 7/4 if you tried. I think he's maybe worth holding off on though as Kittel should race in to an early lead and Nizzolo will have to play catch up. That should push his price out and a few days in we might get 3 or 4/1. Modolo on the other hand could be right up in the first 3 of the opening stages and I'm not sure his price will go out all that much. I think Modolo is worth an e/w bet at 4/1 or bigger, where we get our stakes back if he finishes in the top 3, which I think he will, and we get 4/1 if he wins.  

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Modolo at 4/1 with Hills or Ladbrokes

Wait a few days to back Nizzolo

King of the Mountains Betting Preview

The Maglia Azzura competition for the King of the Mountains is a really hard one to call, no matter which race it is. It's almost impossible to know beforehand who is going to be aiming to try to win the jersey and it often only becomes clear on the first mountainous stage when someone goes off in a break and tries to win every point available on the day.. Getting an early lead in this competition then turns the rider in to a points maniac and they can often then go on to try to just pick up points all through the race to win the jersey.

This Giro could be different though with the backloading of a lot of mountain points in the final week of racing, similar to last year's race. Last year it was an incredibly close run thing with Visconti only just beating Landa by 3pts and Kruijswijk by 10pts, Landa coming with a late charge on the final day to move from 4th to 2nd, but Aru winning the stage and the points denied him the winners jersey... It could have been one of the mitigating circumstances in Landa's off-season departure to Sky.. 

Like with the Points Jersey, the points are awarded in a scale depending on the toughness of the climb as follows:

The Cima Coppi - this is a special award for the highest point in the Giro every year, this year it is on stage 19 on the Colle della Agnello, where the first 9 over the top win the following points: 40,28,21,15, 10,7,4,2,1. With this climb alone offering such a large amount of points on the second last day of climbing it could completely change the top of the mountains classification. But then the next day there are three first cat climbs out on the course, meaning a breakaway could see someone hoover up 96pts on the very last mountain stage - there's only 7pts available at the finish.

Last year Landa went from 76pts to 122pts on the final day after leading over the Cima Coppi. If someone is targeting the jersey then it might pay to just tick along picking up points here and there to stay in contention and then going all-in on stage 19 and 20 to get the Cima Coppi points as the climb comes 106km in to the stage, where they will have been climbing more or less for 70kms. A strong break should take the points here and could even hang on till the finish where there are more points on offer. Same on stage 20, someone could come out of the woodwork and land a stack of points on the last day. The KOM jersey has not been won by the winner of the GC since Pantani back in 1998.

1st Cat climbs award points as follows: 32, 20, 14, 10, 7, 4, 2, 1

2nd Cat climbs award points as follows: 14, 9, 5, 3, 2, 1

3rd Cat climbs award 7, 4, 2, 1

4th Cat climbs award 3, 2, 1

There are 514pts in total available out on the course compared to just 99 at the finish of stages, so the points system works against the GC favourites who tend to let others scrap out the climbs along the stages and just go hard in the final climbs. 

Last year's jersey was won by Giovanni Visconti who moved from 6th in the ranking on stage 18 with 51pts to 1st with 125pts after the two Cat 1 climbs out on the stage. He didn't score a single point on the final mountain stage and Landa almost caught him. Kruijswijk was also in the hunt last year and at one point on the final day it looked like he might take the jersey too. Julian Arredondo won it in 2014 when he took up the challenge early on and continued to hunt points throughout the race with regular attacks, getting in to key breaks and so on. Dario Cataldo finished 2nd, with Quintana in 3rd, thanks to his consistency on the mountain stages. In 2013 Pirazzi won it from Nibali and Visconti, in 2012 Pirazzi finished 2nd to Matteo Rabottini.

The bookies have made Mikel Landa the 6/4 favourite for the race. Stefano Pirazzi was 13/2 favourite to win it last year too after he had won it in 2013 and finished 2nd in 2012. Like in 2014 though he bombed last year, only amassing a paltry 2pts in the whole race!! 

Landa at 6/4 - it's like Nibali at 6/4 for the race. It looks the obvious choice, but I can't back him at that price, especially before the race starts. Given what I said about all the points available out on the course, I can't agree that Landa should be favourite for the jersey - he is not going to be going off on the attack or leading the Sky train over all the Cat 1 climbs, the Cima Coppi etc. And even if he wins every mountain stage finish, it probably still won't be enough points to take the jersey I think. He'll be concentrating on winning the race of course, and it would only be if something happens to his GC chances would we see him try to win this jersey I think. 

Of course with a 6/4 favourite the prices jump up quite quickly for the riders above him. Steven Kruijswijk is available at 8/1 with Ladbrokes and he seems to be coming good at the right time, with a good strong showing in the Tour de Yorkshire last week. He almost won it last year and looks a good shout to try again this year. 

Stefano Pirazzi has been a disaster for his backers the last two years running, but is 3rd favourite again this year at 13/2. He won a stage in Coppi e Bartali this year but other than that I can't see anything again this year to suggest he is worth a bet. Alessandro De Marchi looks to me like he is riding really well this year, he seems to have been prominent in quite a few races lately. 4th in the KOM in the Vuelta last year (but mostly down to one stage) and 6th in the KOM in the TDF and winner of the KOM jersey in the Criterium du Dauphiné of 2014, he tends to show up well sometimes in this competition. With BMC not having a GC man, they will be stage hunting and I think he will be on the attack a lot and could rack up lots of points. 

Hesjedal could do his late show and start powering on late in the race, which means he could pick up a lot of points on the last two stages if he gets in the right break. He hasn't done anything lately to suggest to me though he will be winning this competition. Vincenzo Nibali and Valverde are similar to Landa, can't see the GC men winning it. Amets Txurruka and Omar Fraile are two more who could do well, but they tend to disappoint more often than not.

Really hard to pick someone out though and it may be another bet that could be held on to until maybe stage 6 when the first proper climbs come. I'm siding with Kruijswijk and De Marchi though 

Recommendations:

wait until stage 6 but I think I'll be backing both of them - 1pt each-way on De Marchi at 14/1 and 0.5pts each-way on Kruijswijk at 8/1

Young Riders Betting Preview

Last year I recommended Davide Formolo each-way at 12/1, which he managed to place for us with his impressive 2nd place. I say impressive, but I suppose you can't really call a guy who finished almost 2 hours behind Aru all that impressive! But the rest behind him were worse of course. This year he is just 5/4 best price, and although based on last year's results he may be the logical choice to go one place better this year, I think that's a terrible price - it's not like he was a long way clear of the other riders behind him last year, he only beat Felline by 3 minutes. He's not done anything for me this year either to suggest he's worth backing at that price. 

Instead, I'd rather be on his team-mate Joe Dombrowski, whom I think could have a good race. Winner of the Tour of Utah and 4th in the Tour of California, he can climb well and his team are expecting a big race from him. Sebastian Henao could also put in a big ride, and he'll be aiding Landa in his attempt to win the GC. This could mean that he either is put to work early and blows up a long way from some finishes and comes in way down, or he is one of the last men standing on some of the bigger stages, so could roll in with a high placing and time advantages over some of his rivals on a lot of stages. Merhawi Kudus could also go well here, he has been climbing really well lately. Bob Jungels should crush all of these guys in the 3 TTs, but will it be enough to keep him near the top of the pile when he starts getting dropped on the big climbs? I am not sure. 

Another impossible outcome to predict, any one of about 6 or 7 guys could realiistically win it, but I think a small bet on Dombrowski to start with might do. Other bets may follow once I get a better picture of what's going on. 

Recommendation:

1pt each-way on Joe Dombrowski at 10/1 with various