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Published on Wednesday, 04 May 2016 00:13

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Main Contenders - Can Nibali do it again?

Vincenzo Nibali's season has been building up to this. Although impressive in winning the Tour of Oman on Green Mountain early in the season, his results have been fairly average since then to say the least. Those results will matter little though if it all comes together for Nibali and he hoists the spiral trophy in Turin in three weeks time.  

Last year Nibali used the Dauphiné to prepare a tilt at defending his TDF title, but that didn't go to plan, and after being thrown out of the Vuelta as early as the 2nd stage, he has come back to the Giro with redemption in mind. Contador admitted after the Tour de France that the Giro had burned him out and left him short of the strength required to compete with Quintana and Froome. This year, in what may or may not be his final year as a pro, he has decided to skip the Giro and go straight for one last tilt at trying to take the Tour title. 

Like last year, Quintana skips the Giro again, a race he won in 2014 to go straight to the Tour, and Froome has never been a fan of the Giro and skips it in favour of defending his title in the TDF in July. The rider who finished 3rd in 2014 behind Quintana and 2nd last year behind Contador, Fabio Aru is another absentee from the start list, leading the team in the TDF this year after his storming, last-gasp victory in the Vuelta last year. 

But enough about the riders who are not here, they can't win it, this preview is of the contenders and favourites for this year's race, so let's focus on them now!

Vincenzo Nibali - Astana - 2/1 best price (Betfair)

His Nibs is going all-in with the Giro this year, as he will be riding as support in the TDF to Fabio Aru who will be leading Astana. It's probably a wise choice as I can't see Nibali ever beating Froome, Quintana or even Contador in a Grand Tour again. Some would say we might never see him beat his team-mate Aru in a GT either, but can he beat the opposition ahead of him here? On paper he is probably the best GT rider here, in terms of top placings, like the TDF in 2014, but Valverde is probably the most consistent and decorated in terms of big wins and GC placings. 

He started the season well with the dominant performance up Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman, only Bardet could stay with him most of the way up, just slipping away in the last 200m. Since then, it's not exactly been confidence-inspiring stuff from Nibali as he built his form slowly ahead of the Giro. After a steady and unspectacular 6th place in Tirreno-Adriatico he disappointed some to finish down in 33rd in MSR, then took a month off to a training block at altitude to prepare for Italy. His return to action in Trentino started positively with a win in the Team Time Trial, but after that he went backwards and couldn't stay with the big guns.

Another disappointing result in Liege-Bastogne-Liege with 51st place, but he was in contention right up until the Saint-Nicolas, and was not alone in getting dropped on that climb. It was worrying though, as the likes of Zakarin, Rodriguez, Costa and Poels all rode away from him. He has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the Giro in the past and has been on the podium in 8 stages in total over the years and goes in to the race this year with probably the best chance he'll get for the rest of his career to win another Grand Tour. 

But is he any value at 13/8 best price? And that best price is with Boylesports, so you'll probably just get 50p on if you're lucky, the best price with a proper bookie is 6/4 with Bet365. The simple answer is no. Three weeks, three time trials, lots of tough stages for him to be attacked on, potentially dangerous weather conditions.. lots of reasons why he may not win this race, and not a lot in his recent form to suggest he is worth backing. You can get 2/1 with Betfair if you use Betfair, but he has been on the drift with them as punters are happy to take on Nibali. I'd want 4/1 or bigger I think on him to get me interested. 

Tanel Kangert and Jacob Fuglsang were very strong in Trentino and will be a big help to Nibali here, but the rest of the team are not the strongest as far as I'm concerned, Scarpone is getting old and Malacarne, Agnoli and the rest are good workhorses, but he could find himself isolated on some of the harder stages. I also think there will be others who may be better than him in the two time trials later in the race so he could find himself having to chase and attack. There are stages that he will do well on of course, with stage 8, 14, 19 and 20 potentially good stages for him, but overall I find little that would make me want to back him at that sort of price from the outset. 

Mikel Landa - Team Sky - 11/4 best price  

Mikel Landa - 15 race days this year, 3 wins. Not a bad start to the year, a start that was delayed due to illness apparently. He didn't start racing until the 24th March in the Coppi e Bartali where he rode stealthily in to 11th place in the GC. He followed that up with a stage win on the first mountain stage in Pais Vasco and 12th overall in the GC. He entered Trentino as team leader for Sky and set his stall out from day one with 2nd place in the TTT. He followed that up with a 1st, 6th and 3rd in the other three road stages to take the overall by 2" from Kangert and 14" from Fuglsang who had to take up the Astana mantle when Nibali faded out of contention. 

Two stage wins and 3rd overall last year when riding in support of Fabio Aru at Astana,  Sky signed him in the off-season to lead them in this race year with a view to winning it. This has been his target for a long time and seems to be building up to it nicely, winning one of the Giro prep races in Trentino just last week. But will his lack of race days count against him? He has only ridden 2,233kms in races this year so far, the likes of Pozzovivo and Nibali have done around twice that. Whether that will leave him freshest of the lot or lacking stamina in the final week when he needs it the most, only time will tell. When he finished 2nd last year he was 3'05" behind Contador and 1'12" behind Aru, but a full 5'05" ahead of 4th place Andrey Amador who was a surprise package last year.

Sky have assembled a powerful team to support him here, with Roche and Deignan two loyal lieutants who have been riding well lately, Roche looked very strong in Yorkshire but let a momentary lack of concentration cost him the race. Ian Boswell, Christian Knees and David Lopez will help him on the flat and on the lower slopes, but it's possible that when push really comes to shove in the last few kilometres of the crucial climbs he might find himself on his own.

The addition of Nikel Nieve to the team this week will add much needed support for the latter stages of climbs, but his form this year hasn't been great, with pretty average performances in Andalucia, Paris-Nice, Catalunya and just last week in Romandi where he didn't take to the start of stage 5. He's not going to be here to win it or win stages (unless the opportunity presents itself) so his form in terms of results doesn't really matter, more that he will be there when he is needed by Landa. 

When I started looking at the contenders a few days ago there was still some 3/1 available on him, having been 6/1 only a few weeks ago. He is now best priced 11/4 with Betfair or 5/2 with the regular bookies, so most of the value seems to be gone now. 

Alejandro Valverde - Movistar - 6/1 best price (General)  

The Movistar captain has come in for a little support this week, being clipped in from 7/1 to 6/1 best price now with the regular bookies, although there is 8/1 available on Betfair if you fancy it. He has been on the drift too though on Betfair, going from 5/1 a month or so ago to 8/1 now.

Valverde has been his usual impressive self this year, notching up wins in the Fleche-Wallone, the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon and in Andalucia to steal the GC on the final day. He did however miss out on one of his biggest targets in LBL, finishing a lowly 16th, after being unable to go after Poels, Albasini and Costa on the penultimate hill. That was after skipping Amstel Gold Race as well, a race that he would probably have been one of the favourites for.

What do we make of that then? Did he skip AGR as he was not feeling fresh enough after winning the Castilla Y Leon? Was he unable to go with the winning move in LBL, or sprint to a better finish than 16th because he just didn't have the legs? As always though it's a bad idea to write off Valverde, he showed in F-W just how good he is and how untouchable he is on a tough uphill finish. The reason for skipping AGR was in order to prepare better for the Giro, a race he is taking very seriously this year - in his very first attempt at the race.

Valverde is a man who is incredibly determined and prepares diligently for his big races. Does the course suit him? Possibly - for most of the race the mountain stages are hard, but not brutally long or brutally steep - there are a number of stages you could see him sprinting to victory in with slopes of 4-5% on the run to the line. He will lose time in the opening TT, but then again, most of the mountain guys will too. The 10km mountain TT could go either way for him - he isn't the best time triallist outside of Spain it seems, but he is a good climber over steady climbs of this sort of gradient. The longer 40km TT in Chianti will be an issue for him though, he will lose time to some, a lot of time to others. But the 'others' will be the powerful TT specialists who will probably not be around in the final week in the Alps.

Valverde really could be anything in this race - he could win a number of stages and if he can match or come close to the other climbers on the TTs he could have a chance of winning this race. Bonus seconds rarely win a race as hard as this, but it happens and we could see a real battle in the final week as Landa and Nibali try to shake him off but he hangs in there doggedly. On the other hand he could lose a lot of time to Nibali and some to Landa in the long TT, he could lose some time to Landa in the Hill climb TT and he could be blown out the back doors by the Astana/Sky trains if he rides like he did towards the end of LBL. 

Rigoberto Uran - Etixx-QuickStep - 14/1 best price. 

Unlucky runner-up in 2014, he was mugged by Quintana on that infamous stage to Val Martello when the race was/wasn't neutralised for the descent of the Stelvio. Quintana kicked on with Rolland and Hesjedal, Uran stopped to put on a jacket in the freezing conditions. In the end he lost 4'11" and his challenge was over. In the end he did really well to finish 2nd, thanks to his victory in the 42km TT on stage 12, where he won by a massive 1'12" from Diego Ulissi. Runner-up also in 2013 behind Nibali, he got there through some solid rides on some of the toughest stages.  

Always an 'outsider' for races like this, could this finally be the year that he steps up and lands a big one? With a lower quality field than usual for a Grand Tour, it's certainly possible. All it would take is for him to have a really good day some day, particularly in the TTs. Don't forget he destroyed the field in the 42km ITT in the Barolo stage in 2014, finishing 1'14" ahead of Ulissi in 2nd place, 2'09" ahead of Pozzovivo and 2'41" ahead of Quintana. If he can repeat that sort of performance he has a big chance of leaping in to the leader's jersey after that stage. He has been climbing reasonably well lately, showing himself at the front in Catalunya and Romandie, finishing 4th on the uphill finish to Morgins won by Zakarin (unjustly given to Quintana) 

On the other hand though, he did a poor TT in last year's race, finshing in 23rd place, costing him two and a half minutes to Contador. It can be also argued on the flip side that although he has been riding ok in races this year, all he has to show for it is a 4th place in the GP Industria y Artigianato (won by Si Clarke) and that 4th place in stage 2 of the Tour of Romandie. You'd like to have seen him win, or at least come close to winning something this season to give you confidence that he can land a podium spot at least here. The TTs could really go either way, the climbs could go either way, but in a field with two short priced favourites, some might find value again at the 14/1 he is available at with a few firms.

Cannondale wouldn't be renowned as being the best support team in a GT normally, but they look to have a reasonably strong squad in support of Uran this year. Moreno Moser is riding well, as is Simon Clarke, two vets who will be invaluable out on the road to him. He also has Davide Formolo, Joe Dombrowski, Nathan Brown and Andre Cardoso. I think if Uran is ever going to win a Grand Tour then this is his chance, he won't face many weaker fields for the rest of his career. 

Rafal Majka - 16/1 best price.

Rafal Majka could be the sleeper here. Everyone is talking about the top 3 of Nibali, Landa and Valverde, but Majka hasn't really been spoken about much as a possible winner of this race. I think that's a mistake as the Pole is a very talented rider who has shown he is capable of big performances in GTs with his fine 3rd place in last year's Vuelta. He has also finished 6th and 7th in the Giro in the past and has won the Tour de Pologne, so he should not be discounted at all I think.

He also seems to be a rider that gets stronger as a race goes on, and as this is a Giro that is back-loaded with some tough stages in the Alps at the end of the race, if he is still close enough to being in contention he could move right up the GC in the last stages. There are a number of stages that he will like and he could take advantage of an Astana/Sky battle and slip away some day and gain 30" + that could move him in to contention for a podium spot. 

His time-trialling isn't the best, but it isn't the worst either and there wouldn't be huge gulfs between him and the likes of Nibali, Valverde or Landa. He finished 4th in that hilly TT in 2014 to Barolo won by Uran, and in the 16km hill TT in the US Pro Challenge in 2014, he finished 4th, ahead of a lot of supposed climbers. With his role being to protect and assist Contador during the TDF, this is his big moment and will be a team leader looking to make his mark here. 

The Tinkoff team has the experience of Matteo Tosatto, Evgeny Petrov and Pavel Brutt, starting their 13th, 11th and 7th Giro d’Italia respectively. Jesús Hernández and Pawel Poljanski will play a role in the mountains, along with Jay McCarthy, Ivan Rovny and Manuele Boaro. Sport Director Tristan Hoffman is confident of Majka's chances:

“Rafal Majka is the absolute leader here – if you look to the parcours, his history, how he has been riding in Romandie – so he will be our main card and our protected leader. We have a strong team around him including Pavel Brutt, who after his injury rode a good classics campaign, and will be a strong guy who can pull hard on the flats and go in the breakaways. We have Jay McCarthy who proved himself again at the Vuelta last year, and he has got results from the breakaway at the Giro before."

"Evgeny Petrov and Matteo Tosatto have a lot of experience and perform well at the Giro. We have guys who can pull hard on the flats and others who can hopefully stay with Rafal in the mountain stages, like Pawel Poljanski. Everyone has had a good preparation and is excited to be racing here.” I think he is someone to definitely have a small interest in at the price, and he may even be someone to top up on after the first week. 

Tom Dumoulin - Giant-Alpecin - 28/1 best price  

Dumoulin will have fun in the time trials and is sure to put decent time gaps between himself and all the climbers. Well he should in the first two time trials anyway, but maybe not on the uphill TT. He has also lost the last two TTs he entered in the Tour of Romandie, losing to Ion Izagirre in the short prologue and losing to Pinot in the hilly, longer one. He also wasn't climbing all that great, losing 57" to Quintana o stage 2 to Morgins and also not being able to stay with Quintana's group on stage 4, losing a bit of time at the finish. 

I think he has been over-hyped a little now and could well be found out in this race, although I could be very wrong of course! I just think that he might struggle on some of the climbs here, especially in the final week with stages 19 and 20 being particularly nasty looking. He will be isolated and alone at the end of these stages too, I can't see any of his team-mates being there to support him when he needs it. He apparently says he is coming here to stage hunt and I think that will be the case, he has his eyes set on two TT wins, and if he loses time he might be able to go on the attack one day too later in the race. I think he is poor value at 28/1 and he may not even finish in the first six. 

Ilnur Zakarin - Katusha - 16/1 best price  

Now here's another outsider that could be anything in this race. The Russian was my pick in the Tour of Romandie each-way and I was very unlucky not to collect with him, as the stage win that was robbed off him cost him the bonus seconds that would have landed him 3rd place. He rode very well in Romandie and also in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and could be a real danger here in a sub-par Giro field. He's not that young after all at 26, so is starting to come in to his prime, but he needs to prove that he can challenge for a whole 3 weeks at a GT. He finished the Giro last year, but in 44th place, but he did land a stage win along the way on the lumpy stage to Imola.  

When he 'won' that stage in Romandie I backed him at 25/1 with Paddy Power for this, thinking I was backing him with my winnings on the stage, at least the e/w paid out for 2nd.. I think he has a big chance here of showing up some of the established, older guys and will be a real thorn in the side of the favourites. He is now best price 16/1, but I think that is still worth a small interest as I think he will go well in the two key time trials and will be right up there on the big mountain stages too.

Landa is obviously a powerful climber, but there's no Froome, Quintana, Contador or Aru here so he should be able to finish high up on a lot of the mountain stages. I think he is capable of a stage win too, the way he came up to Quintana in Romandie was very impressive, if he bridges to a lone leader in the last few kilometres of a stage he could breeze right by and solo to victory. 

Domenico Pozzovivo - AG2R - 40/1 Best price

The other great Italian Hope. One of the smallest, lightest men in the peloton at just 1.65m and 53kgs, if he lost 5kgs he'd be blown off the side of the mountain some day.. 9th in 2008 at 25 years of age, 8th in 2012, 10th in 2013, 5th in 2014, he has been pretty consistent in recent years in the Giro. Stage winner on stage 8 in 2012, he has come close since, but hasn't managed to take another victory.. Last year of course was a nightmare for him, crashing horribly on stage 3 and having to take a month off to recover from his injuries.  

I have been a big fan of the little man for a long time now but I haven't been all that impressed with him so far this year and I am starting to give up thinking he will ever win, or even podium on a Grand Tour. He now firmly looks like a 5th to 10th place sort of guy, like he was in the TDU, Oman and Trentino. He also finished 17th in Catalunya and 32nd in Tirreno so that doesn't fill me with much confidence he can skip away from Landa and Nibali and land a big result here. Keep your money in your pocket I think. 

Johan Esteban Chaves - Orica Greenedge - 50/1 best price  

Chaves comes here on the back of an excellent Vuelta a Espana last August, where he won two stages, including the first stage uphill at 200/1 for me. He also led the race for six days and never slipped lower than 7th on the GC, eventually finishing a fantastic 5th. He was remarkably consistent, the worse he finished on any stage was 40th, and that was the final stage to Madrid, with most results in the top 20. He followed that up with 8th in Lombardia and a win in the Abu Dhabi Tour GC after winning stage 3 also. 

This year hasn't exactly followed on from that hot streak, with his best result a 14th place finish in the GP Industria & Artigianato, finishing 10" down on the likes of Uran and Formolo.  Orica and Chaves are pretty confident about his chances though, and as usual, Matty White doesn't hold back in his praise of his young charge:

“This is the first time in the team’s history that we have a team assembled around a rider who has the genuine credentials to compete for the general classification,” White said. “Esteban’s performance in last year’s Vuelta a Espana has given the team another string to its bow and supporting him will be our big focus for the race.” “This is new territory for us. We have enjoyed success at the Giro d’Italia in recent years with stage results and consecutive days in the leader’s jersey in 2014 and 2015 but we have never realistically gone into the race looking to challenge for the overall.”

“Esteban is super motivated and he has prepared very well for the race. We are confident that we can provide real support for Esteban. We have a well balanced team around him and the experience of our Spanish riders Ruben (Plaza) and Amets (Txurruka) will be important on the mountain stages.”

I think he could have fun in the race, but the TTs will be his achilles heel, at least the first two will I think, the final hill TT might be more to his liking, but it's still a very difficult discipline. I think he might be a wait and see, he is 50/1 now, but I don't think his price will go down by much in the first week, it may even go out after the opening TT. I'll come back with a prognosis on him on the first rest day. 

Others.. 

After that you are really heading in to the Leicester City sort of fairytale stuff, JC Peraud is too old I think although he did ride well lately in Trentino, finishing 9th overall. Ryder Hesjedal won't be winning this either, despite being a former winner of the race. I can see him stage hunting later in the race but the TTs will see to his chances. Steven Kruiswijk has been riding well lately and can take care of Hesjedal in a matchbet, he could be good enough for a top 15 finish, not sure Hesjedal will. Rein Taaramae and Tanel Kangert could go well in support of their leaders, but won't be in the top 6, Davide Formolo and Joe Dombrowski could go stage hunting but will be mostly needed to look after Uran.

Sergey Firsanov is an interesting one in that he has never really done much in his 9 years as a pro other than beat Nairo Quintana in the Comunidad de Madrid in 2012, but all of a sudden this year he is tearing up the Coppa e Bartali and Trentino, winning the former and finishing 4th in the latter. There's talk of him finishing in the top 10 and it may well happen, he seems to be in the form of his life at the moment, but I can't see him troubling the podium. Carlos Betancur will also be interesting to watch, he has slimmed down dramatically and seems to be in the best form he's been in in a long time, attacking repeatedly in LBL just a few weeks ago. And that's about it really. 

One that I like at a big price though is Andrey Amador (right) of Movistar. The Costa Rican was 4th in the GC here last year after a remarkably steady and consistent three weeks. He only finished outside the 30 on just four stages and pulled off some big rides on the big mountain days. He hit the top 10 as soon as the 5th stage and never slipped outside it for the rest of the race. He has been timing his prep for this race and rode well in Romandie at times, taking 2nd on stage 5 behind Albasini. He's 150/1, but most of that is because he is supposed to be here supporting Valdemorte, but if something were to happen to Valverde, or if he just isn't 100% after all, then Andrey can step up. 

So decision time then. I think I am leaning towards Mikel Landa over Nibali, I just think he looks sharper this year and has a strong team with him. But there's no value really left in him now at just 5/2. It may be a wait and see bet, as he might lose some time in the opening week and might go out to a backable price. I'll update you on that at the end of the first block of stages. Instead, I'm going to go with three lively outsiders in Zakarin, Majka and Amador. Majka should put on a good show I think and we'll get a good run for our money, same with Zakarin. Amador is more a fun play that he rides as well as last year and Valverde doesn't deliver and the team gets behind Amador. 

Recommendation:

1pt each-way on Rafal Majka at 16/1 with Various

1pt each-way on Ilnur Zakarin at 16/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Andrey Amador at 150/1 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Majka to beat Pozzovivo (4/9) and Zakarin to beat Dumoulin (1/3) - 3pts on the double at 9/10 with Bet365

Chaves to beat Peraud - 2.5pts at 8/11

Kruiswijk to beat Hesjedal - 3pts at 5/6

Amador to beat Hesjedal - 3pts at 10/11 with PP 

Top 10 bet

Andrey Amador to finish in the top 10 - 2.5pts at evens with 365