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Published on Saturday, 17 May 2014 22:50

Giro d'Italia St. 9

Lugo to Sestolo 

Saturday 18th May, 172kms 

This could be an extremely competitive stage as it comes the day after some riders have lost time on the climb to Montecopiolo and some may have been saving themselves for a long range attack on a day more suited to a breakaway winner. Add in the fact it's a rest day the day after and we could be in for a Sunday afternoon treat. 

It turned in to quite a dramatic stage today with Arredondo doing his best to deliver a long long breakaway winner. He was looking very good at times and traded to evens and odds-on several times in play, offering great trading opportunities on Betfair. Pierre Rolland went odds-on too heading in to the last kilometre after a surprisingly brilliant ride to catch and pass Arredondo. It gave me a great position in-play with a nice profit on any other rider winning after laying Arredondo and Rolland. 

The surprising thing to me, besides Ulissi winning, was just how many were still in contention and you had quite a few at the finish who weren't what you would call climbing experts. The fact Ulissi won from Kiserlovski and Kelderman shows that the climbers either didn't have it today or just didn't want to show their hand too soon. Quintana disappointed as he struggled to go with the moves at the end. Once again though we came VERY close to a great 20/1 winner when Dani Moreno launched himself as I predicted inside the last 500m to get what looked like a race-winning move. Unfortunately he had gone too soon and faded badly on the 12% slopes. Fortunately for me the Match-Bet treble landed at 2/1 to limit the damage on the day from the picks point of view. 

The last time the Giro departed from Lugo was in 1914 when a Pierino Albini  won the stage. The finish town of Sestola, a ski station town is making its debut as a finish town. The final climb up the Sestola is more suited to a breakaway with it's steady gradient for most of the way and a lowering gradient towards the finish. The launching point could be the Rochetta Sandri, which starts some 30km from the finish. A 4.5km short burst at an average of 6.2% which hits maximimums of 11% should see some of those with break ambitions make a jump for it. A quick descent and they start the final climb. 

The composition of the group will be crucial as I can't see one rider making it on his own. But 4 or 5 good climbers could see them in with a good chance. The first 8kms of the climb are a very steady 4.5% average with very little variation in the gradient. Climbers who can get in to a nice steady rythm here should be able to make good progress and hold a steady gap to the chasers. 

The Route

The stage starts in Lugo and heads south west first in a pretty straight line for about 15kms to Faenza before taking a sharp right and heading north-west almost in a straight line for about another 70kms, past Bologna to the town of Crespellano. After that the road starts heading south-west as they head towards the hills again and towards the finish in the ski-station of Sestola. 

The first 110kms are almost dead flat and we are sure to see an early break build up a 10 minute lead or so. Once they hit Vignola though they enter the Apennines again and with 110kms gone the road starts to kick up. First up is the 3rd Cat climb to Sant'Antonio (13.2kms at an easy 3.8%) and then soon after the intermediate sprint at Pavullo nel Frignano. 

Then a quick descent for about 10kms down to the valley of the Scoltenna river but the road soon kicks up again. The Rochetta Sandri climb comes next, and although it looks like just a little lump next to the climb up to Sestolo, it averages 6.2% over 4.5kms but hits a max of 11%. With 155km gone they reach the town of Fanano where the climb up to the finish begins. The first part to Sestolo is a steady 8kms or so, averaging 4.8% with no sections steeper than about 5.4%. 

After Sestolo though things get interesting - kilometres 9 to 12 average 8.7% through a series of switch-backs with a max slope of 13% mid-way up. The last 5kms though ease off again to an average of 4.5% reaching the final 130m straight to the finish line. 

Contenders and Favourites

I think tomorrow could be a day off again for the favourites and I think to be honest we could take a semi day off as well. What I mean is it looked today that the favourites are prepared to bide their time until later in the race and are just prepared to ride hard, but not attack really for now. They don't want to show any weaknesses or tells. I think we could see another stalemate like today with lots of riders coming to the finish together, but that group of favourites might not necessarily fight out the stage victory. 

I think the break has a great chance of staying away tomorrow. If a decent break goes early and gets 6-8mins by the time they reach the 140km marker and the start of the climb to Rochetta Sandri then I think they will have a great chance of staying away. BMC will be happy to let a break go, they won't have to work. Movistar probably won't work as it looks like Quintana is riding himself in to fitness still. Katusha won't chase, Sky can't, and AG2R had a tough day today with little reward. The likes of Neri Sottoli and Bardiani will probably have men in the break and even if they didn't I can't see them chasing. 

The only teams really who could possibly want to reel in a break will be hat-trick seeking Ulissi's team, Lampre-Merida and maybe Trek for Kiserlovski and Belkin for Kelderman - as all three looked in great shape today and will be suited to this fast uphill finish tomorrow. 

I give a break a better than 50% chance of staying away tomorrow, and I am just going to pick a few for an interest tomorrow as I think it is very difficult to pick any with any confidence for tomorrow's stage. I have gone for some long shots who are likely suspects for a long break. First up, Adam Hansen - he tried today but missed the decisive move. He dangled 30" behind them for quite a while before giving it up. I can see him try again tomorrow on a stage that will suit his style. At 100/1 with BetVictor he was worth a little investment. 

Secondly, another rider who tried but missed today - Philip Deignan for Sky. He rolled in today around 15' down, so although he didn't push himself too much he wasn't that far off the pace. I can see him try again tomorrow and 275/1 was too tempting to miss. Next, Thomas de Gendt - a stunning winner of the stage to the Stelvio in 2012, it shows how decent a climber he is on his day. Unfortunately, his day hasn't come a lot recently but I could see him have a crack tomorrow at 150/1.

Finally, Fabio Duarte finished in 40th place today, over 7 minutes down. He is now over 10' down on GC so could be given some leeway tomorrow. He could look to get involved in the break tomorrow too and is a big looking 66/1 with William Hill, it's twice the price he is elsewhere. 

One last point though, if it does come to a GC mens finish then I think Ulissi will win it again, so it might be worth a saver on him at 5/1 on Betfair. Watch out for updates on Twitter tomorrow, I'll be passing on info as soon as I get it from the course and will be trading in play as well like today. 

Recommendations:

0.2pts each-way on Philip Deignan at 275/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Adam Hansen at 100/1 with BetVictor

0.3pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt at 150/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Fabio Duarte at 66/1 with William Hill

1pt win on Diego Ulissi at 5/1 on Betfair. 

Match Bets 

Evans to beat Uran (8/15), Majka to beat Aru (1/2), Ulissi to beat Moreno (8/15), Duarte to beat Niemiec (9/4), Arredondo to beat Pirazzi (1/3) - 1pt on the 5-fold pays 5.8/1 with Bet365.

Pantano to beat Rosa at 5/6 with Bet365 - 2pts  

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