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Published on Monday, 12 May 2014 16:44

Giro d'Italia Stage4

Giovinazzo to Bari

Tuesday 13th May, 112kms 

Back on Italian soil then for stage 4 and it's a nice easy one that they have lined up for the riders after their transfer back from Ireland. A miniscule distance of only 112kms should be covered in around 2 1/2 hours. And it's almost dead flat. A perfect opportunity for Kittel to make it three in a row? 

So it was an excellent birthday for Marcel Kittel as he produced one of the most impressive sprints I have seen in a very long time to deny a brilliant Sky effort from Eisel, Boasson-Hagen and Swift. So hard was the effort on the young German that he lay prostrate on the ground for around a minute after collapsing shortly after the finish line.

They flashed past us with 125m to go and there was actually a gap of about 5m between the first few guys and Kittel's group and Kittel wasn't even at the front of that group. To hear 'Kittel wins' from Anthony McCrossan was a surprise to say the least. Watching it replayed on TV later I was stunned. He indeed came from a mile back to cruelly deny Swift on the line. But I was very happy as I had lumped on him at 4/6. Even better was I had Viviani each-way at 14/1 so that paid out too.

I was pretty spot on with most of the rest of my predictions (bar Swifts impressive result!), Nizzolo was outside the top 3 and Bouhanni was poor value at 6/1. Ferrari bust my match-bet double though by finishing ahead of Nizzolo, doing a bit of his famous space defending along the way to hold Nacer Bouhanni in with his shoulder!

We spoke with Nico Roche after and he said the legs are alright but it was hard to say just how good so early in to the race. He was annoyed though with the puncture 6km out as it cost him a place at the front and with the split, which he said he thought might happen, he lost time that he could have gained on some rivals. He was very fired up to try something today according to the team and wanted to be at the front. Majka made the split and gained 11" for example.

The Route

There's not much to say about this course as it is is pretty plain and boring! A Crit race around Bari after a little trip up the coast from Giovinazzo which then turns nearly 180º and heads inland for a while before starting the first of eight 8.3km laps of the finishing circuit in Bari. It's almost pan flat and bar a few technical bends in the final stretches of the circuit, it is pretty straightforward and destined to end in a sprint you would think.  

Contenders and Favourites

This stage has to be an easy hat-trick for Marcel Kittel I think. The pan-flat course, together with the very short 112km distance means we are pretty much guaranteed another sprint finish. And no one can touch the big German. The problem is he is best priced 8/15 with SkyBet and is generally around 1/2! Do I want to take the 8/15 about he not having an incident or accident in the final few kms to rule him out? As that is the only way he'll be beaten.. If it's a straight up sprint, he wins simple as that. I played up some winnings from Stage 2 to Stage 3 though at 4/6 so I guess there isn't much difference between 4/6 and 8/15.. So I'm going to play again at 8/15 - 6pts win.

Elia Viviani is starting to come good too though and I think he is going to be his biggest challenger again. The Cannondale team did an excellent job of getting him to the right place as they raced through the last few kms in Dublin but even though he couldn't better Swift or Kittel on the uphill drag to the line, he was clear of a lot of his rivals. A flat crit race and a flat sprint in Bari will be much more to his liking and I think he should be top 3 again. He said after the stage in Dublin that there isn't much you can do against Kittel in that sort of form but that he will keep trying - he added that he is looking forward to racing in warmer weather again though, it should help him get closer.

Nacer Bouhanni should get a lot closer too than he did on stage 3, the flat finish should be a lot more to his liking. He was caught too far back according to his team when they hit the Flamme Rouge and although he did well to get up to 5th place in the sprint he was never in danger of winning. There isn't much difference in the betting between Viviani and Bouhanni, both are around 8/1, but given the choice I have to side with Viviani again at 9/1 each-way. Almost identical bets to stage 3 then!

Who else can get a look in?! Ben Swift was excellent on Sunday but it showed again that Sky obviously did their homework far better than any other team. They got the right men to the front at the right time (EBH, Sutton and Eisel) and knew exactly what lines to take and the rise in the sprint to the line, putting EBH as the last lead-out man. They almost pulled off a sensational result only to be beaten by the steaming Kittel. I think that although he is clearly flying the flatter course might work against him and he might have better chances worth saving strength for later in the race. 

There are some who believe that Alessandro Petacchi might be given a shot at this stage after looking after Uran for the last few days, a short stage back on Italian soil might mean he can be let off the leash for a go. I can't see it myself though and I'm going to pass it up. 

Giaccomo Nizzolo got a little lost as I thought he might on Stage 3 but his price has shot out to 25/1 as a result - that has started to tilt him towards being an attractive price but I think he will be a 4th - 10th man again. Roberto Ferrari is also a huge looking 40/1, Michael Matthews 50/1 and Appolonio, who came close in Dublin is a massive 66/1. But they are all scrapping for 3rd place at best I think as Kittel, Viviani and Bouhanni are going to be the men to beat. 

Recommendations:

6pts win on Marcel Kittel at 8/15 with SkyBet

1pt each-way on Elia Viviani at 9/1 with Bet365

Match Bets: 2pts on Elia Viviani to beat Nizzolo at 4/7 with Paddy Power, 1pt on Chicci to beat Ruffoni at 8/13, 2pts on Jetse Bol to beat Tosh Van der Sande at 4/6 and 2pts on Ferrari to beat Appolonio at 4/9.

2pts on the above match bets in an accumulator with Paddy Power, pays just over 6/1 

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