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Published on Saturday, 31 May 2014 23:48

Giro d'Italia St. 21

Gemona del Friuli to Trieste

Sunday 1st June, 172kms 

Barring incident, and it would need to be a majorly shocking incident, Sunday's stage to Trieste will be the usual procession with photo opportunities of the jersey winners clinking prosecco glasses. There is nothing to suggest that this stage will end in anything other than a sprint, but they anything can, and has happened in this Giro..

A strange connection occurs between the departure city of the Giro d'Irlandia, Dublin and the final stage town of the Giro D'Italia, Trieste - James Joyce. There is a large bronze statue of the man standing on the Ponte Rosso, as he lived and worked in Trieste for some 15 years, and it was here that he started the roots of what was to become Ulysses. 

“Think you're escaping and run into yourself. Longest way round is the shortest way home.” he wrote in Ulysses, and this is something a cyclist feels everytime he makes a desperate bid for glory in a bike race. You think you are escaping, but your biggest obstacle is yourself. The lactic acid burning, the pain and the desperation. It may be a short distance to the line but it feels like the longest way around. How fitting would it have been if Diego Ulissi had won this stage then, but unfortunately he went home a few days ago!

It looks like one last chance for the sprinters then, and there are surprisingly quite a few still left in the race considering what they had to get through in the last week, so they must all fancy this one. But there are surely some in the race who will be looking to disrupt there plans, and the lumpy finishing circuit should hopefully see lots of agressive attacking riding up and down that little rise 2kms from home. 

It was a disappointing anti-climax today with the way the GC men didn't seem to have enough energy left after yesteday's time trial to make an exciting final stage. For a while it looked like the break was doomed with about 50km to go and Quintana traded for over £2000 at 4/5, then suddenly the gap was 7 minutes as the peloton suddenly lost interest in chasing. So no last stage fireworks and a disappointing end to the mountains from a GC battle point of view. Great ride by the men out front though, Mick Rogers is having a Giro he could have only dreamt about 6 months ago. Fantastic ride by Roche too to take 4th, just didn't have the power to stay with the first 3 guys on the really steep parts. 

The Route

The final stage procession sees the riders set off from Gemona Del Friuli, almost in the shadow of the Zoncolan, and head south/south-east until they hit the coast at Monfalcone after 83kms of a gently sloping downward road. They then skirt along the beautiful coastline of the Adriatic on the narrow strip of land that borders Slovenia until they hit Trieste 27kms later at the 110km mark.

From there they start on an 11.2km circuit of Trieste that takes them up a little rise 8 times. The rise is only about 500m long with a gradient of only about 6-7% but the descent for 500m down the other side is steeper (-9%) and has several tricky bends to negotiate on the way down. From the bottom of the climb there's only 2.3km to go, so unless someone manages to get away on the little rise/descent it looks like it will be a charge to the line by what's left of the sprinters trains. 

The finish is pretty straightforward with just a left hand turn with 900m to go and the rest is a fast straight sprint on a wide flat road. 

Contenders and Favourites

When looking at who can win this stage I think it's important to look at what teams have been decimated and which teams have managed to get most of their starting 9 to the final stage. This could be very important from the point of view of whether a break has a healthy lead heading in to the final 30 or 40 kilometres. Unfortunately for any breaks, the main men for the sprints have almost got a full squad left to go in to battle with!

Trek Factory Racing have managed to get to the last stage with all 9 riders to help Giaccomo Nizzolo take that elusive stage win. FDJ have lost just Courteille, Cannondale have lost just Villella, Lampre have lost just Ulissi. 

On the other hand, Orica have no sprinters left (have just 2 riders left in Tuft and Hepburn!) and Garmin have lost 5 of their 9 for Farrar. 

Nacer Bouhanni has been by far the strongest sprinter and the red jersey on his shoulders has dragged him over the mountains. With practically a full lead out and a long straight sprint he is the strong favourite for tomorrow at best price 10/11with Bet365 which looks generous considering he is just 4/7 with Ladbrokes.I am trying though to get evens on Betfair which will be worth a bet. 

Elia Viviani could have packed his bags and gone home by now as he is out of the Red Jersey competition so it says to me he really wants one last chance at a stage win here. Cannondale also have 8 of their 9 starters and were the most dominant lead-out train earlier in the race, that was unless they crashed.. I think he should be right up there in the first three and may well have come over the mountains better than the likes of Bouhanni. 

Giaccomo Nizzolo also has hung around to the finish here so he must fancy his chances too but on a flat sprint I think he has less of a chance than the two guys mentioned above. Same goes for Ben Swift I think, a flat straight sprint will not suit him as much as Bouhanni and Viviani.

Roberto Ferrari is still in here too but is a 4th to 10th place man, as is Tyler Farrar. 

Recommendation:

Nacer Bouhanni - 2pts win at evens or better on Betfair

Elia Viviani - 1pt each-way at 9/1

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