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Published on Thursday, 29 May 2014 22:48

Giro d'Italia St.19

Bassano Del Grappa to Cima Grappa

Friday 30th May, 26.8kms 

This should be a fascinating stage. A flat start for 7.5kms just about gets the riders warmed up for what lies ahead - a brutal race against the clock for 19kms uphill. Is it the day we see Uran fight back? Will Quintana put even more time in to everyone? Almost every place in the top 10 is still up for grabs. Bring it on!

As is now almost traditional with the Giro, the third week features a mountain time trial. You can't really look to any of the TT specialists for this stage, you need someone with a very special set of skills - a climber that is good against the clock. TT specialists will gain some seconds on the flat 7km leading to the base of the climb, but they'll lose minutes on the climb.

On the other hand, if you can maintain a good speed through the flat part and you're a good climber you can have a good day here. There could be some huge time gaps though on a day like today and it's little wonder that the main GC favourites seemed to call a truce today on stage 18. I was right in that it was going to be a Colombian day, I just can't believe that one of the Colombians I didn't pick won the stage! We were very unlucky though with Fabio Duarte, he was clearly fired up and really wanted the stage but just wasn't able to go with Arredondo when he made his decisive move. 2nd was pretty close though for our 15/1 pick. Magnificent ride from my man Philip Deignan, I knew he had a ride like that in him, just annoyed that he landed a podium spot on a day when I hadn't money on him!

This is a very hard climb, make no mistake about it. It will be crucial to gauge your performance correctly as this is 45 minutes of hell. There are a lot of tired and stressed riders out there and being in their own up this climb will play on their minds a lot so it will be important to get this right psychologically as well as physically. Another thing to think about is whether riders set off on their TT bikes for the first 7kms and then change bikes for the climb? It's been done in the past of course and it could just make that small enough difference at the end of the day to decide some of the top 10 placings. 

This is a legendary climb though in Giro history. The hill has been used on normal stages on plenty of occasions in the past, most recently in 2010 when Vincenzo Nibali won on the day on the stage that included the Cima Grappa, while his team captain took the overall. Alberto Contador also won here in 2012 when on his way to his now-annulled victory in 2012. Eddy Merckx has also won here, but who will add themselves to the list of victors on Friday?

The Route

The stage starts from Bassano Del Grappa, a town founded in the 10th Century and famous for the Ponte Vecchio and the Villa Angarano, a UNESCO World Heritage site from the 16th Century. They roll out on a flat, straight road in a north-easterly direction for 3kms, then turn hard left and head north towards Romano D'Ezzelino and on to Semonzetto where we get the first time check after 7.6kms. This will be an interesting check, but not an overly important one, as the real drama and work starts from here. 

Over the next 8kms they pass through up to 20 switchbacks as they zig-zag their way up the first step of the climb. This section averages 7.4% for 12kms, but it is actually closer to 8.2% if you take out the flatter slopes at the bottom and the top which make up about 2kms at averages around 3.5%, dragging the overall average down. 

There's a little plateau from km 17.5 to 19.5, where the next time check is taken, and this will be a far more interesting one, to see who has maintained a good speed up through the switchbacks. The next step in the climb though is the toughest, as kms 19.5 to 22 are a leg-breaking 11.1% average, hitting a max of 14% as they hit the 22nd kilometre.

Then another short little plateau for a kilometre at 2% before the last kick up for 3.8kms at 9.2%. It is hard all the way to the line, the last kilometre will really hurt as it averages 10.3% all the way to the finish.

The first rider is due off at 13:00 local time and Quintana is expected to finish around 17.15 local time.

Contenders and Favourites

This is a stage that can only be won by a handful of riders as far as I'm concerned. The smallest, lightest, strongest climbers basically. Bigger men, non-climbers and even general TT specialists will all struggle to go as well as the real mountain goats. This is backed up by the bookies take on it tonight when I looked at the odds, the top four in the betting are Quintana, Uran, Pozzovivo and Aru.

This is a brutal climb and it will need to be ridden flat out from start to finish for the men at the top of the GC in order to preserve their GC placing or even move up some placings. The pure climbers will put many minutes in to the non-climbers and we could see a real shift in some of the top ten placings come tomorrow afternoon.

One position that looks pretty safe though is Nairo Quintanas. He is the outstanding favourite at just 4/7 best price with Paddy Power, as short as 4/9 with Bet365 and BetVictor. He is flying now and full of confidence, having looked lacking in confidence earlier in the race. This has probably something to do also with his fever clearing up, he can't have been feeling very good in himself given the weather conditions also. One fascinating quote that came out today was that Izagirre said that Quintana wanted to abandon the race after the descent of the Stelvio because he was so cold, that he had to force food in to him to get him to continue..  Of course, he warmed up good and proper after that and fairly flew up the climb and now looks in total control .

We don't have a great deal of mountain time trials in his past to look on for form measures, but he did finish 3rd behind Richie Porte in the 2013 Paris-Nice stage up the Col d'Eze, but that is a very different climb with a gentler gradient and a much shorter distance of only 9km. He will lose time at the bottom, but I think it will be totally irrelevant by the time he reaches the top, if he taps out that metronomic rythm like he did on the Val Martello then he could put 2 to 3 minutes in to some of his rivals again. He looked so at ease today when Rolland and others were trying little moves at the front, he is just head and shoulders above everyone else on the climbs at the moment. Even his little acceleration at the finish showed them all who's boss!

I think he is as close to a max bet for tomorrow as I have seen in a long time, but the price is a little short at 4/7, if we can get 8/11 or something like that on Betfair I am going to have a decent bet on him.

Rigoberto Uran rode a brilliant TT to Barolo when it catapulted him in to the pink jersey but his performances on the mountains so far have been pretty inconsistent and disappointing at times. He did look far better today though and was right up there with Quintana all the way to the finish. He could also put in a big performance tomorrow but his climbing legs don't seem to be the best at the moment and I don't think he'll trouble Nairo.

Dominico Pozzovivo will love this TT, if you could call 45 minutes of absolute hell something that you could love.. But he can TT and he can climb with the best and I think he will be disappointed with his race so far and is after a podium place, which is possible - he is only 23" behind Rolland in 3rd place and he could put 30" in to Rolland tomorrow so I think he will be going flat out tomorrow. Pozzovivo, Rolland and the others GC men will probably finish quite close to each other on the Zoncolan so this is his day to make a big difference. I think he is worth an each way bet if you don't want to back Quintana at such a short price.

Fabio Aru will have his backers, but to me he is tiring and may well be found out tomorrow. Rafal Majka has a real battle on his hands now for a top 3 placing, and possibly even a top 6. He finished with the main favourites today despite suffering from stomach pains, so depending on whether that is something a bit more serious that could still affect him tomorrow or not, we could see a real scrap amongst 6 guys for positions 3-8. Majka is a good TT'er and clearly a good climber too but I think he is looking at 5th to 10th tomorrow.

Pierre Rolland can go well but he will not be troubling the top steps of the podium I would think. He can tap out a good rythm here like when he rides away solo, but so far, most of his attacks have been all show with not much reward and I don't think he has the watts to keep a powerful enough pace all the way up this climb. 4th to 6th maybe.

Wilco Kelderman is probably one of the better time trialists up towards the top of the betting, and he can climb well too, but he also looks like he might be feeling the affects of 3 hard weeks racing. He has been one of the best of the rest though on the climbs and he will be able to pace himself better than most on this sort of parcours. I think he might have too much for Hesjedal in the H2H at 5/6.

Dario Cataldo has shown everyone what great shape he is in with regular attacks in the mountains and he is an excellent TT'er too. Winner of a lumpy TT in the Settimana Coppi e Bartali at the end of March and 9th in last year's ITT on the climb to Poisa in the Giro, he could be a surprise package for a podium slot at 66/1. Today's stage would have take it's toll on him though so it is a long shot for sure.

Julian Arredondo was superb today, I was writing him off as tiring but he proved his doubters, including me, wrong today with a superb performance. I have a feeling though that he will take it easy tomorrow with the Zoncolan stage in mind, I'm sure he'd much rather animate this stage than finish 10th on this TT, bursting a gut along the way. Ryder Hesjedal is another who could pull off a great ride tomorrow, he is still fighting for a podium spot and has been climbing magnificently. He finished well down in 29th place though in the hilly TT of the TDF last year so I think he won't be in the top 6 tomorrow. 

One other dark horse that could well surprise a few is Samu Sanchez. He has had an almost anonymous Giro, only being seen a few times when coming to the front when Evans was in pink, but he has pedigree in Giro uphill TTs. 2nd in last years race behind Nibali, he led for a long time until the Shark came through and crushed everybody. He beat Majka by 27" and Uran by 28" and at 66/1 he could be our longshot for tomorrow. Although 51 minutes down on GC, he is actually in 25th place so it hasn't been a total disaster for Samu, and with no Evans to look after tomorrow we may well see him put in a big performance.

Recommendation:

10pts bet on Nairo Quintana if you can get 8/11 or better (10pts matched at 4/5 in play on betfair)

Samu Sanchez - 0.3pts each way at 66/1 with Paddy Power

Domenico Pozzovivo - 0.5pts each way at 9/1 with Paddy Power (only bookie paying 3 places at 1/4 the odds at this price)

Match Bets 

2pts Pozzovivo to beat Aru at 9/10 with 888Sport (is only 8/13 with Paddy Power)

Pozzovivo to beat Aru (9/10), Quintana to beat Uran (1/4) and Kelderman to beat Hesjedal (5/6) - 2pts at 3/1 for the accumulator with Paddy Power.