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Published on Tuesday, 27 May 2014 22:39

Giro d'Italia St.17

Sarnonico to Vittorio Veneto

Tuesday 28th May, 208kms 

This is the last chance of an 'easy' day before the final stage in Trieste as the weary peloton are given a chance to recover a little after the battle of the day before over the Stelvio and Val Martello. It's a medium distance stage though of 208kms and with a twisting rolling profile we are sure to still see plenty of action. 

What an epic stage we had on Tuesday - a truly awesome Quintana took a brilliant victory on a crazy day on the mountains. But there were heroes and legends everywhere - Cataldo, Hesjedal, Kelderman, Rolland, Pozzovivo.. Hesjedal in particular was just incredible. How many times did he look dead and buried but still kept clawing his way back. How unlucky was that crash in the TTT in Belfast now that cost him 3 minutes, he'd be in second place only for it. 

Rolland did as I expected and faded towards the end, but it was a fantastic effort all the same from him. Pozzovivo showed better than he did a few days ago and has put himself right back in the podium mix. Kelderman burst away from the rest of the favourites to take an excellent 4th, and Evans was magnificent too to hang on to his 3rd spot. 

But Quintana, wow, Quintana - it was a climbing masterclass. He was just a joy to watch as he pushed at the front, a study of concentration and power. Be it while sitting down and stomping out a relentless rythm or dancing out of the saddlle, accelerating away from Hesjedal and Rolland. He won on the day and landed a very nice 7/2 bet for me, but also is no 1/8 to win the race overall and I have traded out my stake for a nice profit. If Evans or Majka can sneak podium spots too it will be a great result on the GC bets. 

On paper this looks like a nice easy day but it could be far from it. Some non-climbers will have come home in the autobus the day before, saving energy for a crack at getting in the break on this day. There are not many chances left for the non-climbers over the remaining five stages, so individuals (and teams) who have not had much joy in the race will be under pressure to perform in this stage.

It isn't an altogether straight-forward stage though and we could see a lot more action and attacking than you might have expected looking at it first. 

We could see a big effort by Trek, Sky and Lampre-Merida to try to drop Bouhanni on the steep slopes of the Muro and they may well do it to set up the sprint for Nizzolo, Swift and Megzec. The problem is it is a full 20km still to go from the top to the finish, but if they can get 20 or 30 seconds then FDJ will have a very tough time chasing down what is sure to be a peloton doing 60kmph plus coming to the finish. Even if they do make the catch they could be very tired and not be able to set up Bouhanni as well as they need to. 

But there is also the strong possibility that if a good break goes and gets a good lead the peloton might be prepared to have a rest day with the days of torture to come. In fact, it would probably only be Trek, Sky and FDJ really that would be prepared to chase I think should a strong break go. It may take a while to go and it could be really fast and furious for the first 50kms or so, but once it goes they might all settle down for a day's chatting and recovering.. 

The Route

The stage starts from the heart of the Non Valley and runs along the Adige River valley for a while before entering the Sugana valley, which is follows along its entire length. Past the feed zone in Grigno after 96kms and on to the first of three Cat 4 climbs of the day, the Scale di Primolano after 105kms. A short little hill at only 3kms, it averages 3.9% but hits a max of 9%.

They then run along 35kms of rolling roads to Valdobbiadene where the intermediate sprint is located and on to the final 50kms or so which get a lot lumpier, if you could call it lumpy compared to what they got over the day before! First up after 157kms they start the Santo Stefano, a little tougher Cat 4 than the first one, averaging 5% over 2,8kms but hitting 13% slopes along the way. There's an uncategorised climb after 180kms and then they hit the 'Muro Di Ca' Del Poggio' a little 'Muro' or 'wall' that is only 1.2kms long but averages a very steep 12.2% and hits maximums of 18%. 

Once over the top of that, there's only 20kms of rolling roads to the finish, with a little hill 10kms from the line, but mostly downhill to flat roads. If the sprinters haven't been shelled out on the 18% slopes of the Muro, the finishing straight is an uphill drag from 3kms to 500m to go. There is a long straight stretch from 3.5kms to go until about 600m to go where they take a sharp left and then another sharp left with 450m to go and then they are on the slightly dowhill finishing straight which is a nice wide 8m road.

Contenders and Favourites

As mentioned above, this looks like a stage on paper that should end in a bunch sprint.. but, there is the distinct possibility that after a brutal day in the mountains the sprinters like Bouhanni will struggle and get blown out the back on the 12.2% average slopes for 1.2kms on the Muro, or alternatively, the peloton is just so knackered they can't put enough time in to Bouhanni and he regains contact in the 20kms to the line. 

Another possibility is a break takes it - either a long breakaway that is not reeled in or indeed a late breakaway that goes on the Muro and manages to hold off the chasing pack. 

Let's start with the possibilty of a sprint finish, but without Bouhanni. I think he will struggle on those slopes and the teams with a sprinter who can climb will look to really push on at the top. Sky's Ben Swift finished a fantastic 25th today a full 22 minutes ahead of Bouhanni's groupetto. That was a fantastic ride for a 'sprinter' and it could mean two things - 1. he is in fantastic form and will be a strong favourite for this stage, or 2. he expended so much energy today he has nothing left for the sprint!

I think though he is a solid favourite but 9/2 is a bit short - if Nizzolo or Megzec get over the climb with him then they probably have more speed on the line. In fact, I think Nizzolo at 11/1 is a far better each-way bet. I think he will be at the front with Trek piliing on the pressure with Sky and even if Bouhanni manages to claw his way back on the run in, I think it might just have taken enough out of him to swing the stage in Nizzolo's favour. 

Enrico Battaglin showed on the Oropa stage what great shape he is in and he could well be a late attacker on this stage with the likes of Peter Weening, Luca Paolini, Damiano Cunego or Nathan Haas. Paolini and Haas are two I like the look of a well as they have been showing well on the climbs and look eager to get something out of this race. Nathan Haas in particular will like this finish and if he can get away with a small group they could make it to the finish.

We may even see some of the men in the top ten look to light it up and steal some seconds back, it's all to play for from positions 3 to 9. You might see Evans, Hesjedal or Kiserlovski give it a go, there could be a number of races going on on the road to the finish. Adam Hansen could well be a candidate for the long breakaway too with the likes of Simon Gesche, Lars Bak or Gasparotto at a big looking 80/1.

Or what about Nicholas Roche? He has been very active but was reeled back in to Majka minding duties for the last few days, but he could well be let off the leash again on this one. The finish might suit him well and if he can infiltrate a late break he could do well in this stage. He did his job for Majka today and once done, took it easy and rolled in 26 mins down. He's a long shot but at 66/1 I had to have a small bet on him. 

It could be a frantic last 25kms or so tomorrow and we could see all sorts of combinations of ways that a winner is decided. So I am covering some of them with Nizzolo in the sprint, Roche and Haas to go with the late breakaway, Adam Hansen to go on a long one and a lay of Bouhanni for a top 3 place.

Recommendation:

0.3pts each way at 66/1 on Nicholas Roche with Paddy Power (I had my 0.3pts with BetVictor and they instantly cut him from 66/1 to 40/1!)

0.4pts each-way on Nathan Haas at 20/1 with BetVictor

1pt each-way on Giaccomo Nizzolo at 11/1 with Paddy Power

Lay Bouhanni for a top 3 placing at up to 6/4 to risk 2.4pts (to win 1.6pts)

Match Bets 

Nizzolo to beat Bouhanni, 2pts at 3/2 with Bet365