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Published on Friday, 23 May 2014 14:12

Giro d'Italia St.14

Agliè to Oropa (Biella)

Saturday 24th May, 164kms 

This stage will do well to live up to the sensational day in 1999 when Pantani chased down and passed Laurent Jalabert on the Oropa. GC men will have to make a move today in order to start to peg back some time on Uran and it's all to play for in terms of top 10 placings still for many. 

The Sacred Mount of Oropa is a world heritage site but it's the riders who will be looking for protection and sanctuary after what is sure to be an explosive day. After the destruction job in the Time Trial Uran has to be attacked now and this is the first chance for the likes of Quintana to put him under pressure and try to take back some of the 3'29" that he now lies behind Uran on the GC. 

The Mount of Oropa is home to the Black Madonna, a Lebanese cedar wood statue that was brought to the location in the 4th century. Since then it has become a mecca for pilgrims and a commune of 12 chapels and buildings have sprung up on the mountain over the years to make it a stunning tourist attraction in the shadow of the Alps.

This one of the stages dedicated to Marco Pantani in memory of his stunning victory back in 1999. Dropped because of a puncture on the climb, his team came back to time trial him back through some of the remnants of the leading group like they were going backwards. When they were not going fast enough for him any more he simply rode away from them in his inimitable style, toes pointed, back hunched, hands on the drops, not hoods.

Looking back now of course it is with incredulous eyes, and in fact I watched it in 1999 with incredulity but without the knowledge we have today about just how pumped full of dope Pantani was. But you cannot deny it is a sensational stage to watch. The way he goes after Jalabert like a man posessed (he was..) and then to ride away from him like he did was just breathtaking to watch. If we get a race anything like this on Saturday then we are in for one hell of a treat.

As you can see from the video though, it is a brilliant climb to race on - flat, smooth surfaces, changing pitch and steepness, long stretches of straight road and twisty bits through villages. It's going to be interesting to see just who goes for it with another brutal finish ahead of them on Sunday, but I think the fact that the GC men can hide for 200 of the 225kms until the last climb may mean we see them give it a real go on Saturday to try to gain time back on Uran.

The Route

It's a relatively short mountain stage but it is going to be a hard day in the saddle for those that are feeling two weeks of racing in their legs. The finish is in the Oropa Sanctuary which has seen a number of previous stage finishes, most notably with Marco Pantani's victory in 1999. 

They start in Agliè and head north-east towards Biella and up in to the Alps. The first 24kms are downhill or on the flat and it could see lots of action with riders trying to get in the break of the day - expect the likes of Pirazzi, Arredondo and Rabottini to be involved in the early moves to try and nab the KOM points on the road.

The first KOM climb starts at the 24km mark, the climb of La Serra (right) a 6.5km drag that averages 5.1% and it shouldn't cause too many problems to any of the main contenders. After a quick descent for about 10kms they then roll along on the flat to rolling roads for 35kms or so. Along the way, at the 50km mark they pass by the centre of Biella and just past the road that they have to take up to the summit finish at Oropa. Here they start off on a circular loop to the north east of Biella on rolling roads until they hit the foot of the next KOM climb at the 85km mark. Excuse the quality of some of the images, I took photos out of the official road book, these profiles are not online on the Giro website!

The climb up to Alpe Noveis (left) is a tough obstacle with 70kms still to go when they reach the top. It start off easy enough with the first 3kms averaging 4.5% but it starts to get steeper around 4kms in as it hits a max of 16% and averages a nasty 11.4% for the next 3.5kms, then eases off to 3.9% for the last 1500m, but that's a bit false as they hit a flat section, then 500m at 10%!

Another fast, twisty, dangerous descent for 9kms, dropping 637m to the town of Coggiola before starting uphill again straight away on the climb of the Bielmonte with 104kms gone. Another leg breaker which averages a deceptful 5.6% over its 18.3kms (see tab below). I say deceptful because around the 13km mark it flattens out to about 4% average first and then actually descends for about a kilometre, lowering the overall average on the climb. Section 6km to about 10.5km are tough though, averaging 8.5%, hitting a max of 13%. The last 2kms average 6.1% again to the summit.

Another very fast descent for 30km in to the town of Rosazzo in the valley and down all the way to Biella again. And then they start the final climb to the legendary Oropa climb.

The final climb to Oropa Sanctuary is 11km long and starts off easy enough again for the first 5kms or so, averaging just 4.3%. Km 5 to 7.5 steepens though and averages 8.5% with a section in the middle for about 500m that hits 13%. Km 7.5 to 11.7 at the finish are tough, averaging 7.6% but it hits 11% with 2km to go, which could be the launching pad for a late attack. The finishing straight is long and wide. 

Contenders and Favourites

It looks like the word out there must be that Pozzovivo really fancies this one as he is being backed tonight and is as short as 3/1 favourite for the stage. That's quite a short price as there is a chance that the break of the day (or even a late break that goes on the steep slope of the Alpe Noveis or the Bielmonte) will fight out this finish. He may well attack and leave the rest of the GC guys but it may not be enough to win the stage. 

In fact, there are a whole load of things to ponder ahead of tomorrow's stage. Who will be in the early break? Well I think the likes of Arredondo, Pirazzi and Rabottini will definitely be on the chase for mountain points and will be in the early break, which may even go before they hit the first climb of the day at the 30km mark. The big points come later in the race though so they might wait for the Alpe Noveis if their teams can keep the break on a tight leash up until then.

Rabottini is one that I am particularly interested in as the team have been targeting this stage for him and plan on going after KOM points. The race hasn't worked out as he'd hoped so far but I think tomorrow could be a day for him to shine. At 80/1 I think he is worth taking a punt on, I think he will do all he can to get in the break of the day.

Arredondo is an interesting one though in that he is likely to get in the break, but if his last big break is anything to go by he still lacks the stamina to last the multiple climbs that are demanded tomorrow. There are also rumours he isn't well but I haven't seen anything to confirm that yet. 8-10/1 is too short for me though, I don't think he will even be in the first 6. 

Pirazzi has his honour to fight for as defending champion of the KOM and he too has had a pretty average race up until now. This could be his chance to make amends and get a decent result. 

You can also probably add in the likes of Chalapud (100/1), Quintera and Rubiano (150/1) as the likely suspects for the break. Other possible candidates are the likes of Deignan, who seems to be getting some form back and may be allowed go up the road at a big looking 200/1, but he faded early on Tuesday when in the break. 

Europecar have two men who could go up the road as both of them have points from the stages already - Bjorn Thurau and Quemeneur and it may be that they try in turn to get in the right move, to possibly set something up for Rolland later on if he goes on the attack. Same goes for Katusha, any one of them could be in the break, including Vorganov and Losada. Or what about Santoramita, he hails from near the finish so we could see him active at the start of the race

The break wil go, but will the break make it? It's possible, all depends on who is in it and whether the GC teams want to rip it up over the last few climbs - if they do then the break is probably doomed. 

So if it gets to become a GC battle, who wins? Don't forget there are 10pts available to the stage winner so anyone in the hunt for a good GC placing will be very keen to win the stage. Pozzovivo is the obvious candidate at the top based on his performance on stage 9 when he skipped away from the rest, but I don't think he will be given the same leeway again tomorrow, they are all wise to his move now. I think he might try but will be chased down and could be dropped when the counter attacks come. He did a great time trial and is now just about 2 1/2 minutes behind Uran - tomorrow will be a good opportunity to at least test Uran ahead of the stages to come. 

Nairo Quintana would have been my big bet for this stage but there is a doubt hanging over his head in that he has come down with a cold and he complained that he found it very hard to breathe when doing the TT on Thursday. So to back him at 6/1 we are taking a gamble on his fitness and health. A fully fit Quintana, who needs to make a statement move, could well destroy this field. But we are taking a bet on his health really and I just about think it is worth a small bet but I'll wait for in play where we may get a bigger price if a break gets a good lead. Although he doesn't look like one to crack too many jokes, there may be an element of bluffing ahead of the big tests to come. 

Cadel Evans I think will grind it out to the top and will look under pressure when the fast guys take off, but he will maintain his diesel engine speed and be right there at the business end but I don't think he'll be top 3. Uran can go on the defensive tomorrow or he could go on the attack. He is clearly in super-natural form given the result of the TT, but he could also find himself isolated and under a lot of pressure if there are attacks going off all over the place. The same could be said for Quintana, if they feel he is under the weather then they could try to attack him to put him completely out of contention. 

Diego Ulissi and Dani Moreno are two that could win on their day but I'm not sure they will still be there as they head towards the top of the last climb, Ulissi in particular looks a terrible bet to me at 12-14/1. He looked under pressure on that climb on stage 11 and in fact came home well over 4' down after being dropped. I think Moreno can out climb him tomorrow and the match bet at 11/8 looks a great bet to me.

Looking at that video above though, it looks to me like this is a real climbers climb. One that can be climbed at a very fast steady pace. Pierre Rolland is one rider that could pull off that sort of ride, he is the steady diesel engine type. But I have had a decent bet with Paddy Power on him not winning any stage at 8/13 so I will be hoping he doesn't make it!

What about Rigo Uran? Well he certainly was superior to all his rivals in the TT, but let's see how he does tomorrow. I just have a nagging feeling that he could be exposed or will have an off day and lose a minute or two to the likes of Quintana and Pozzovivo. I think these two guys could actually need to form an alliance to pull Uran back in to the race a bit more and then fight it out when necessary. 

Rafal Majka is looking very strong now too and my 50/1 man for the overall should have the full force of the TS team pulling for him tomorrow to keep him in a podium spot at worst. Roche has been getting a bit of airtime in the breaks but his job from now on is to protect Majka's podium chances. He is a very powerful rider and this sort of climb will suit him, but he needs to be able to get away from the favourites. This could be a hard ask, but if he can go with a fast guy, they could work well together to get to the finish.

As I mentioned earlier, this climb suits a real powerful climber type and there are two riders in good form who have good diesel engines on them - Robert Kiserlovski and Wilco Kelderman. Kelderman sits in 5th and Kiserlovski sits in 10th so it is all to play for. A good ride by Kiserlovski could see him move up to 6th or better - don't forget he was the first man home behind Ulissi on Montecopiole, outsprinting Quintana, Evans and co. I think one or both of these guys could well go away on the 3-5km section which isn't too steep and then power on through the steep parts shortly after. At 50/1 with Paddy Power for Kelderman and 40/1 for Kiserlovski I think they are two I would like to have onside as the small goats watch each other.

Other than that, Duarte, Cunego, Roche, Landa, Aru could all be involved but I think I will wait and watch in play for further bets. For now I am happy to be with a few mentioned above and have a little lay of Uran at odds on for the overall, there's a lot of racing yet to come.

Edit: 11.30am - I mentioned Roche above, I've heard this morning that he is up for it today as it's his last chance of an attack before he has to work for Majka. I have managed to back him at 90s on Betfair, there is still some 65 available and you should be able to get him in-play around 50/1. I think he will go late and someone like Moreno could go with him so I have had a little bit of Moreno too at 30/1.

Recommendation:

Matteo Rabottini - 0.5pts each-way at 80/1 with Paddy Power

Wilco Kelderman - 0.5pts each-way at 40/1 with Bet365

Robert Kiserlovski - 0.5pts each way at 50/1 with Paddy Power

Lay Uran for the overall for 2pts at 4/5.

Backed Rolland NOT to win a stage at 8/13 with Paddy Power for 5pts

Roche - 0.5pts win at 90 on Betfair, 0.5pts Top 3 at 14s on Betfair

Dani Moreno - 0.5pts win at 30s on Betfair, 0.5pts Top 3 at 8.6 on Betfair 

Match Bets 

Moreno to beat Ulissi at 11/8 with Ladbrokes

Moreno to beat Ulissi and Majka to beat Hesjedal - the double pays over 2.6/1 with Ladbrokes.