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Published on Wednesday, 21 May 2014 22:30

Giro d'Italia St.12

Barbaresco to Barola 

Thursday 22nd May, 41.9kms 

Last weekend we may have seen what some considered to be the first tests of the Giro with the climbs to Montecopiolo and Sestolo, but to me, this is the real first test where we could see a real re-shuffle in the top 10 and we could see a big shake up in the bettting once it's over.   

Stage 11 annoyed me as I picked out Simon Geschke as a possible candidate for the win at 80/1 (and 100/1) but only backed him to win, not each-way so missed out on a very nice place price as he finished a fantastic 2nd, winning the 'bunch sprint'. It's a shame that Rogers won it as we would have had a very nice 80/1 winner. Roche gave us a run for our money too though by making the break of the day which had around 5 minutes at one point and battled right up until they reeled them in. I was right in that it was a breakaway that won it, but I don't think anyone will have backed Rogers.. a big winning day for the bookies..

We enter wine country here though for stage 12, and there could be a few feeling a little punch drunk at the end of this stage. They depart from Barbaresco, a city whose economy has relied on it's wine industry, one of the great red wines on Italy and one of the most renowned (and best selling) wines in the world. It has a population on a normal day of just 650!

The arrival town of Barolo is also a major win producing region, especially for the red wine of the same name that's matured for at least 18 months in oak barrels. It's also a main ingredient of the local cuisine in its fortified versions (Barolo chinato). This is also a tiny town on a normal day, with just 700 inhabitants!

This is going to be a crucial day for GC ambitions. Can Cadel maintain or even improve on his current lead over Uran and Majka? Will Quintana make or lose valuable time to his rivals?

The Route

The first rider, Svein Tuft, sets off at 12.50 local time and the last rider is expected to finish around 5.15 local time. This stage will see lots of picturesque footage of the rolling hills of the Alba region. The stage starts with a bang, 12km of climbing almost from the flag drop, heading up a twisting, winding road to the first time check at 12.6kms at Boscasso, after climbing 378m. The last 3km of the 4th cat climb averages 5% with a max of 8%.

Then a fast descent that is quite difficult for the first couple of kilometres as far as Manera, but then it opens up to long fast straights where they should be able to put in pretty high speeds. When they reach Alba the second time check will reveal who has negotiated the descent better than others, as some can make up some time lost on the way up by powering it on the way down. 

From Alba they pass along nearly 10km of flat and straight roads until the reach the bottom of the next climb which starts at Loc. Uccellaccio with 34km gone. The climb up to Castiglione Faletto is just 3.1kms long but has some short, sharp stretches. Overall though it averages a relatively easy 4.1% so shouldn't cause too many problems. 

Once over the top they take on a tricky descent for 2.5kms, with sections hitting nearly -11% gradient on some very narrow and dangerous roads, including a sharp switchback turn with about 3200m to go. Once at the bottom they are only 2kms from the finish, but the pull up to the line is one last challenge to overcome with the last kilometre averaging 5.1%. 

Contenders and Favourites

There are no clear TT specialists for a course like this one could argue. There are some good climbers, and some good TT'ers, but there could be some surprise performances here today from riders that you may not have predicted. 

There are going to be three battles going on here today - firstly, for the GC with Quintana needing to put in a good time to keep a grip on Evans' coat-tails, Uran could run Evans close and Majka and Pozzo will be duelling for that 3rd place ahead of the mountains to come. 

Secondly, there is the battle for the stage where the TT specialists, especially those that can climb a little too, will be going for stage honours - riders such as Malori and Kelderman. 

Finally, we will have the battle just to stay within the time limit! Some riders could find themselves under real pressure just to finish inside the time limit, especially those that are still battered and bruised from crashes. 

It's an incredibly technical course that will require the riders to pace themselves across several areas. The first climb will need them to keep the power high but not go in to the red too early. Then the fast descent will require speed and concentration. Then the little climb to Castiglione Faletto will require a hard effort to keep the pace up near the finish and they can't lose it on that sharp descent with 3kms to go. 

I'll start with Adriano Malori as he is the short priced favourite to win at just 5/2 general. Ordinarily, he would be a strong favourite for this but there are three reasons why I am going to be taking him on tomorrow. First, he had a really bad crash today, getting lots of scrapes and cuts all over his back and shoulder. Apparently he still rode for Quintana afterwards but he might not get a great night's sleep and could feel stiff and sore tomorrow. Secondly, he has publicly come out and said that this climb doesn't suit him and finally, he starts early and it seems that the weather mightn't be great early on but starts getting better later on for the later starters. 

He opened at 3/1 and shortened to 5/2 and then 9/4, which I don't really understand, the people backing him either didn't see the crash damage or have heard otherwise, that he is ok to go for it. I took the opportunity though to have one of my biggest lays of the race so far, laying Malori at 3.1/1 on Betfair. I have layed him to lose 9pts (to win 3pts) as I am pretty sure he might struggle tomorrow. 

Second favourite is Cadel Evans at 11/2 best price (as low as 7/2) and he is pretty interesting to me at that price. He used to be an excellent TT'er but has suffered a bit in the last two years or so in TTs, but he is definitely riding at this best level in quite a while. He openly admits that the course should suit him and he is full of confidence at the moment. Starting later in the day, he will have all the time checks and possibly better weather also. At 11/2 I thought he was well worth an investment as he should be right up there. 

Then we have Thomas de Gendt, Dario Cataldo and Wilco Kelderman who are all around the 6-8/1 mark. De Gendt is an enigma as regards what could happen tomorrow, he has had a really poor race so far and has been anonymous in the last week and a half. On his day he would love this course and could be right up there in the top three. He will be able to blast in on the flat parts and won't mind the hilly parts too much either. But, and it's a big but, his form has been poor. 112th, losing 18 minutes again on stage 11, he has had no decent placing at all, excluding the TTT in Belfast on stage1. He sits 1hr and 17mins down on the GC and that doesn't look like a man whose legs are in great shape. I am avoiding him tomorrow. 

Dario Cataldo has been riding well though with the 8th place on the finish to Sestola probably the highlight so far. It showed that his climbing legs are good, but also on Tuesday's stage he ripped it apart on the little hill just before the finish for Sky trying to set something up for Swift. Winner of the TT in the Coppi e Bartali, over a lumpy course but, it was only 10kms and the opposition was pretty ordinary.. A better result though was in the Vuelta last year, on stage 11 when he finished 5th behind Martin and Cancellara, but nearly a minute ahead of the likes of Uran, Majka and Basso. He did finish 17" behind Pozzovivo so that might tell you something about where to expect him tomorrow - I think 5th to 10th.

Wilco Klederman could be a real contender for the victory here - he has been absolutely flying in the race so far and took another excellent result with 3rd place in the bunch sprint behind Rogers today. He has been comfortable on the climbs and aggressive too, taking the 3rd spot on the climb to Montecopiolo ahead of Quintana. He lost 19" to Malori in the TT in the Algrave earlier in the year but it was on a flat course and over only 13.6kms. He didn't do brilliant in the TTs in last year's Giro though and I fear that 11 hard stages may take their toll tomorrow and he could miss out on the win.

Pozzovivo and Uran are sure to put in massive efforts, the GC is still all to play for - I don't think either of them are good enough to win this sort of TT but I would think they are easily 4th to 10th place finishers. We'll soon find out tomorrow if Pozzovivo's excellent 3rd in last year's Vuelta TT was a fluke or if really was signs that this guy is far better against the clock than anyone could suspect given his size.

Rogers could have gone well had he not put in such a big effort today, and Ludvigsson and Suitsiou are also capable of top 15 rides. Two riders I like though at big prices are firstly Jonathan Castroviejo at a very tasty looking 33/1  to win and 12/1 to place.  His TT results this year so far have been appalling but they have generally been over flat and much shorter courses. Looking back to last year though, and he won the Spanish national TT championships by a long margin and also took an excellent 4th in the Dauphiné behind Froome, Dennis and Martin. If he can rediscover his TT skills, along with his improved climbing skills he could go very well on this course. He is still available at 33/1 with William Hill. 

Riccardo Zoidl showed his potential with a very fine 7th in the TT in Romandie recently and I think he could surprise a few tomorrow. He's a long shot, but he's certainly good value at 150/1 with William Hill. Finally, what about Quintana? Well he could surprise a few also tomorrow - take a look at the profile below of the TT in the Pays Basque race last year where he finished a fantastic 2nd place, just 17" behind Tony Martin, and over a minute ahead of Contador. It's quite similar to tomorrow's stage and he certainly shouldn't be 150/1.

Recommendation:

Back Cadel Evans 1pt each-way at 11/2 with Bet365

Lay Malori to win at 3/1 on Betfair to win 3pts (to lose 9pts)

Back Jonathan Castroviejo to win at 33/1 for 0.5pts and to place at 12/1 for 0.5pts with Bet365 

Back Riccardo Zoidl at 150/1 for 0.2pts each-way with William Hill. 

Back Nairo Quintana at 150/1 each-way for 0.3pts with Paddy Power

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