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Published on Sunday, 18 May 2014 23:30

Giro d'Italia St.11

Collechia to Savola 

Wednesday 21st May, 249kms 

This should have been the longest stage of the race at 249kms, but it was beaten for that honour by stage 6 when they had to add 10kms to it because of a landslide. It's still a long, hard stage ahead of the riders, and coming the day before the crucial TT on stage 12 it could be a day for a breakaway winner.   

I say could be a day for a breakaway winner, but the more I think about it it looks like a very high chance of being a breakaway that make it today. That opening climb for the first 60kms or so is bound to see frantic action amongst those looking to get something out of this race before the big TT the next day and the hard mountain stages to come.

Because the GC men are going to be saving every ounce of energy for the TT, there will almost certainly be very little action from them. And because they will not be interested in doing anything then their squads will take a day off too with the tough hill stages to come. And finally, there is very little chance of any sprinters making it to the finish over that tough hill up to Nasso di Gatto so the sprinters teams will have a day off too. The make-up of the breakaway will be crucial as a punchy climber who can attack out of that group and charge down the descent to the finish will probably win the stage. Or at least a more reduced group of maybe 2 or 3 guys can fight it out. 

The area of Liguria is famous for one Giuseppe Olmo who incredibly won 10 stages in the 1936 Giro. When he retired from racing he started building racing frames which bore his name and my first proper racing bike when I was around 15 was an Olmo. A very pretty pearlescent white frame with lovely lugs and detailing. I moved up to a bigger, better frame when a Junior and left the old Olmo frame at my parents home in a shed. One day about two years ago (and about 20 years since I last used it) I was home and asked my dad where it was as I was thinking of restoring it. "Oh I threw that out ages ago, I thought you didn't want it...". Thanks dad..

Stage 10 worked out well, Nizzolo almost landing the win for us but getting the place money and the match-bet to beat Mezgec too. Backing Bouhanni at 2.8 and laying him at 2.0 worked too, adding 0.8pts profit to the pot. Unfortunately Farrar crashed once again and lost that match-bet with Ferrari, we'll never know how that would have turned out.

The Route

They leave Colecchio in the south-west suburbs of Parma and head in a south-westerly direction, climbing gently all the while along the Taro river valley until the hit around the 53km mark where they start the official climb up the Passo Cento Croci. This is a nice early test for the peloton with this climb probably being the perfect launching pad for the break of the day. It drags on at a steady average of 4.6% over 13.5kms, hitting max gradients of 10%.

Then a difficult two-step descent over the next 40kms takes them back down to the coast and the town of Sestri Levante. Then it more or less a pan-flat run along the Aurelia road and its stunning coastline, passing Portofino, Genoa and Varazze before hitting the finish town of Savona with 204kms gone. As they come along this road they pass through Voltri and from there the course follows the Milan-San-Remo route for a while.

As they pass through Savona they head off on a final circuit of approximately 45kms which takes them up to the Cat 2 climb of the Naso di Gatto. This is where the stage will be decided, with most of the sprinters probably going out the back door and the road is perfect for some brave attacks. The 7.6km climb has a hard average gradient of 8% and hits max slopes of 13%, but as the first 2kms only average 1.9%, the actual average gradient of the tough part is probably closer to 9%. At the top there is a little flat/descent for 2.5kms before they plunge back down to the finish in Savona again.

The descent is fast but not too difficult and the run in to the line sees a hard right, left, right with 2kms to, then a sharp right with about 1400m to go and then an arcing run to the line. Just after they pass the Flamme Rouge though they have to go around a roundabout but other than that it has a nice long, flat finishing straight of about 900m on a 7.5m wide road.  

Contenders and Favourites

Where do you start on a day like today then? I can't see any BMC, Movistar or AG2R guys going up the road with the jobs they have to do yet in this race. No point in wasting energy when the GC is at stake. Orica Green-Edge have had a brilliant race up to now and with nothing to play for in the GC then they are highly likely to be involved in the break.

Durbridge was very sick on Sunday's stage and only barely made it to the finish line after being pushed for most of the last 3kms by his team-mates, so I think we can count him out. Peter Weening is a likely candidate again as the confidence will be sky high now and he has had a day to rest and recover. He said after he was feeling super strong all day and tried his hardest to get in the break. WIth the finishing climb to get over it shouldn't worry him and he might give it another go. At 40/1 I have had a nibble. 

Astana may be challenging on the GC with Aru but they might have a man that they can let off the leash today and who could like this sort of parcours. Enrico Gasparotto has been suffering a little on the climbs, finishing well in to the hundred + figures when the road has gone uphill. He could well be let go on a stage like this with a finish like it has, it should suit a past winner of Amstel Gold and 3rd placer in Liege-Bastogne-Liege. I have had a little bet at 50/1 with Bet365.

I think we need to try with Adam Hansen again, this poor guy gets it as bad as Jensie, he seems to have the whole peloton chasing him down whenever he tries to go, everyone wants to go with Hansen. It could be another one for him, he wouldn't care about pootling about on the TT the following day if he can give this a crack. If you haven't seen Jensie's video showing his frustration of trying to get away at the Tour of Cali, check it out below.. He opened at 33/1 and I had a bit of that, he is now as short as 14/1 with Paddy Power. He is still 20/1 with Bet365 and that is just about acceptable.. 

We haven't seen much of Johnny Hoogerland yet in this race, could this be a day we see him have a go? I can't see many of the Belkin guys having a go but David Tanner got away on Stage 9, just didn't have the legs to stay with Weening and Malacarne. Cannondale might try with someone like Gatto but I think they will stay in the peloton. Team Columbia will try to get someone in the break I think with the finish in mind, but which one is real lottery!

FDJ might let Alexandre Geniez have a go on this stage, he has been going pretty well in the climbs so far, and he did well in the Volta a Algarve on similar finishes, taking a 5th behind Kwiatkowski, Costa and Contador on stage 2. It may be though that he is seen as too much of a threat to be let go as he is only 6'36" behind Cadel and he could be virtual leader with the gap they could get on the road!

Garmin Sharp's Nathan Haas has been very active too and this could be a stage that suits him a lot. His 6th place in Brabantse-Pijl was a great performance but the 2nd place on stage 3 of the TDU to Campbelltown was a fantastic result, beating Ulissi and Gerrans after getting over a similar finish to this stage with the ascent up Corkscrew hill. I think he has a great shot at today's stage, as long as he can get in the break! At 66/1 when Bet365 opened I took some, and at the current 40/1 he is though he is worth a small investment that he will make the move.

After showing some great early season form with a 10th place in Amstel Gold probably the highlight, Europecars Samurai Warrior Yukiya Arashiro has had an anonymous Giro so far, finishing way off the pace on every stage. Could this be a day we see him in a break though? At 125/1 let's take a punt he'll go on the attack. Team Giant-Shimano's Simon Geschke tried repeatedly to get in a break on Saturday at the very start before feeds were available outside of the commentary pavillion. He didn't succeed but I wouldn't put it past him to have another go in this stage. I took some 80/1 when he opened but he is now 100/1 with Will Hill. 

Katusha could send any one of about 3 guys up the road with no GC man to ride for anymore. We could see Luca Paolini, Gusev, Belkov or Vorganov go up the road today. Paolini has probably been the quietest of them, we've hardly seen anything of him, but maybe he is waiting for the right stage to do something. Could this be it? A man who has finished 3rd twice and 5th just this year in Milan-San-Remo, he will know some of these roads very well and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets involved today. He was very active towards the front of today's stage and it looked like he was feeling strong on the last climb and descent. At 22/1 he is worth having on side too. 

Finally, Sky, Lotto Bellisol and Tinkoff-Saxo and I think the two possible candidates here would be Edvald B-H for Sky and possibly Nico Roche for TS. There seems to be support for EBH but his price is ridiculously short at 6/1. No bet. Lotto Bellisol will look to get a man up the road and apparently Chris Anker Sorensen has told Danish TV that Lars Ytting Bak has told him he is going to win this stage! At 66/1 I had to have an interest as I would be incredibly upset if he won and I hadn't had a few quid on him! Winner of stage 12 of the Giro in 2012, he has had a pretty poor year so far, time for him to start pulling his weight in the team!

Roche is now stage hunting with his GC hopes in tatters following his crash and looked active at the front today on that little climb near the finish, going off the front and stretching his legs. Add in the fact that his girlfriend is going to be at the finish tomorrow and that little extra incentive should motivate him to try to get in the break I think. Paddy Power opened at 50/1, I clicked to back it, it went in the betslip and suddenly it said the market was suspended. They reopened at 33/1! He's still 33s, 25/1 elsewhere. 

So it's a lottery pick tomorrow with so many looking to get in the break, but I think scattering a good few small bets at big prices should see us hopefully get some excitement out of the stage. If none of them get in the break it's going to be a rubbish day!

Recommendations:

Luca Paolini - 0.4pts win at 22/1 with Bet365

Nico Roche - 0.3pts each-way at 33/1 with Paddy Power

Nathan Haas - 0.4pts win at 66/1 with Bet365

Adam Hansen - 0.5pts win at 33/1 with Bet365

Enrico Gasparotto - 0.2pts each way at 50/1 with William Hill

Lars Bak - 0.2pts each-way at 66/1 with William Hill

Peter Weening - 0.2pts win at 40/1 with Bet365.

Yuki Arashiro - 0.1pts win at 125/1 with William Hill

Simon Geschke - 0.2pts win at 80/1 with Bet365

Match Bets 

No match bets appeal really, except maybe Felline over EBH at evens with Bet365