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Published on Saturday, 16 May 2015 22:50

Giro d'Italia St 9

Benevento to San Giorgio Del Sannio 

Sunday 17th May, 215kms 

After the stalemate and limited drama of the stage to Campitello Matese, the GC guys would be forgiven for taking a day off and rolling along in this stage. It looks a stage set for a breakaway win, with many lumps to get over in the day, including a long Cat 2 and a steep Cat 1 climb and a nasty little sting in the tail with 15kms to go.

Contador did superbly well to stay with the leaders today but there wasn't really a concerted attack on him, it was all pretty sedate. Aru tried, but didn't get very far, Porte responded and then just put his team to work. It was encouraging for him though to suddenly start having team-mates around him right at the death of the stage, I still believe that they have played this race very well so far and will take control in the final week when the other teams will have exhausted themselves.Richie should take the lead in the TT now and they will need to defend it for a week.

Carlos Betancur gave me some excitiement for a while today leading by 9 minutes with 30kms to go.. but he blew badly in the last 12kms and disappeared. It was a long shot, but boy he did give it a  good go. Intxausti absolutely mugged Reichenbach though, sitting in all day, shaking his head saying he can't come through, putting on the agony face... then dancing away from him to the stage victory. A sneaky stage steal, but fair play fo pulling it off. Was cool to see him make an X with his fingers and kiss them skywards though, in honour of Xavier Tondo, his mate who died 4 years ago next Saturday.

The Route

The route starts and finishes just 12kms apart in the towns of Benevento and San Giorgio Del Sannio. Benevento is famous for the stunning Arch of Trajan dating back to 114AD and the ancient theatre, which once could hold up to 10,000 spectators.  

The Colle Molella may be less than half the distance at just 9.3kms, but it's far tougher, averaging 6.3%, but that is even a bit misleading as the first 5.5kms average around 4.2%. From kilometre 5.5 to around 8.5 it really steepens up, averaging close to 10%, hitting 12% in parts. The route then follows the constant undulations that lead through Lioni, Sant’Angelo dei Lombardi and Castelvetere sul Calore, up to 20 km from the finish, where the harsh Passo Serra climb will lead to the final kilometres of the stage.

The Passo Serra is a Cat 2 climb, just over 6kms long, but the opening 3kms or so are prety flat, averaging just 1.6% as it rolls along. At the 3km point of the climb though it really kicks up for the next 2kms, averaging nearly 9%, with nearly a kilometre at 13% in the middle. It eases back a little to 'just' 6% for the last kilometre or so. The summit comes with just 11.6kms to go and it's followed by a 6km descent to Ponte where with 5.5kms to go they hit a hair-pin bend and start the drag up to the finish.

With 5kms to go they hit a 2km section which averages 4.9%, with a 500m section with 400m to go that averages over 6%. It then levels out for the next 2500m through city streets, taking a sharp left with 1200m to go, then another easier left as they enter the final straight with 600m to go. The final 600m drags up at 3.1%, making it a similar finish to the stage won by Ulissi in Fiuggi on stage 7.

The road surface is worn out (and narrow at points) over some sectors and this could make for a very tiring day. .

Contenders and Favourites

It looks like a day for a break and it looks like a day for strong men maybe rather than out and out climbers. I'm going out on a limb here by saying I think a break wins tomorrow.. I'm letting the GC favourites out of my picks for tomorrow. 

I'm going to start with someone I picked for stage 8, Giovanni Visconti. I didn't see him much all day but when checking the results after I saw he finished an impressive 11th, just 53" back on the winner and just 18" behind Aru and co. so he is clearly climbing very well. He could well go in the early break, quite possibly with a team-mate like Amador or Anton to help him along the way. There are several reasons that he could be looking to go in the break today - first, he is just 1'16" off the lead, sitting in 7th place. I'm sure Contador will be happy to hand over the Pink Jersey for a while to take the pressure off in the next week and he wouldn't see Visconti as a danger overall. 

Secondly, he now leads the KOM competition with 39pts and there are no less than 60pts available on the stage, with 32pts alone on the Colle Mollela. He could get in the break in an effort to try to secure it for a number of days, his kick should be enough to win the points on the climbs. Then, if he gets to the finish his sprint could be good enough to win the stage. His price is much shorter today though unfortunately, best price 10/1, generally 9/1.

I was wondering what happened Philippe Gilbert at the finish to Fiuggi on stage 7, he dropped his chain apparently with 1400m to go so missed out on the charge up the hill. He is riding well though and I would have thought he'd have been in the top 10 on that stage if he hadn't dropped the chain. He could well try to make up for that tomorrow by getting in the break, the course is lumpy but not impossible for him, the tougher, longer climbs are far enough out that the break will probably be just riding tempo and he should be able to hang on. The final climb of Passo Serra is really tough for 2kms, but the likelihood is that there won't be many guys in the break who will be able to leave Gilbert too far behind, it's not like Valverde, Kwiatkowski or Rodriguez are here to attack on that hill. If he can get to the finish in the front group he has a big chance of taking the stage at 14/1..

Diego Ulissi won impressively on stage 7, there was clearly lots of confidence in the Lampre squad about him as Modolo and several team-mates worked incredibly hard to set him up and they were all overjoyed at the finish, celebrating like a team who had just pulled off the perfect plan. Can he get in the break? It's possible. Can he win again at the finish? Yes, it's possible - but it's likely he won't have 3 team-mates to look after him and he could be out-foxed. 

Simon Gerrans almost took the victory in stage 7, just didn't have the legs at the finish. I think he may well try again tomorrow as the course is perfect for him. I think he could well have a team-mate possibly in the break with him too, someone like Weening or Simon Clarke to help set him up. He's tempting as well at 18/1. Michael Matthews could be up for it if he is feeling better, he was suffering from Allergies on stage 7 so he wasn't 100% at the finish.

There are so many other riders who could be up for this stage after taking it easy for the last few days - Sylvain Chavanel has had a day in a break already that nearly came off, he could be up for it. Stefano Pirazzi has been quiet, too quiet.. he must surely be targeting a stage sooner or later, but not for me at just 14/1. Damiano Cunego attacked today and it was great to see the little prince attacking, at least he had the balls to try it. I'm not sure he'll go on the attack tomorrow though, if he's climbing well, there are probably better stages later in the race he should wait for. 

I can't see Betancur attacking two days in a row, he looked cooked at the end today, but you'd never know. More good training before the rest day before he maybe goes for it on one of the later stages again. Adam Hansen could well be one of the guys to go up the road tomorrow, it's the kind of stage for him, not too hard, but a real hard mans stage, he's 50/1.

Tom Jelte-Slagter or Ryder Hesjedal could be involved tomorrow too - Slagter may find the climbing a bit tough, but it could be a good stage for Hesjedal. He has been active in the last few days and was climbing well today, finishing with Kreuziger 1'11" back in 18th place. He has the right combination of climbing skills and attacking mindset to light it up at the end of the stage. The 28/1 with Ladbrokes is worth a small bet.

Jan Polanc lost his KOM jersey today and was dropped on the last climb, not sure he'll have the energy to go on the attack tomorrow, but he is a tempting 100/1.. Katusha are sure to have one or two guys interested in the break, but who, take your pick of Belkov, Kotchetcov or maybe Zakarin who seems to have found his legs again after a poor first week. They are all 100/1.

Simon Geschke looks big for a stage like this at 150/1 with Betfred, he is as short as 66/1 with all the other bookies. He said today that he had good legs but it wasn't a stage for him, he might like tomorrow's stage better and I think he is likely to try to get up the road. Lars Bak at 300/1, Oscar Gatto at 250/1, Stef Clement at 125/1 - all could be involved. 

I'm going to scatter a few bets around but the danger is of course none of them make it, might be a day to watch and try to pick the winner from the break if it looks strong enough to stay away, but you might have to settle for 10/1 on a 66/1 shot if you leave it to in-play. I think Visconti has a big chance of being involved though, as could Gilbert and maybe Hesjedal, Chavanel and Geschke. Not an easy stage to call a winner in at all though! It's worth taking a look at Boyles prices for tomorrow though - they are paying out on the first SIX places home! If you want to open an account, use this link.. 

Recommendations: 

1pt ew on Giovanni Visconti at 11/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Phil Gilbert at 14/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Simon Gerrans at 20/1 with Betfred

0.2pts each-way on Simon Geschke at 150/1 with Betfred

0.3pts each-way on Ryder Hesjedal at 50/1 with Boyles who are paying 6 places!