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Published on Thursday, 14 May 2015 22:54

Giro d'Italia St 7

Grosetto to Fiuggi

Friday 15th May, 264kms 

This is the longest stage of the Giro at a monster 264kms, one of the longest races in fact of the entire year. At 264kms it is longer than Paris-Roubaix and just 900m shorter than Paris-Roubaix. It's got a bit of the Milan-San-Remo about it with its distance and the increasing difficulty in the stage as it heads towards the finish. 

Textbook finish today from Lotto-Soudal and André Greipel, they did exactly as I expected of them so a nice return from that bet today. Modolo came close too as I thought he would, should have gone each way on him instead of Hofland, who seemed more interested in fighting with everyone in his way today than riding a straight line. He won his match bet with Nizzolo though, to help  us to a 3.2pt profit again today. Good to get some P in the P&L again!

The story of the day though was the crash at the finish, an idiot in the crowd with a 6 in Telephoto lens smashed it off the head of Daniele Colli who was sent crashing to the ground and suffered a horrendous arm break. The ripple effect spread across the road and next thing you couls see Alberto Contador hit the tarmac too. He got up touched his left shoulder but rolled to the finish.

As the jersey presentation took place though it was obvious something was seriously wrong as he couldn't put on the jersey. X-rays later have revealed he has dislocated his left shoulder. He has said he wants to try to start tomorrow as nothing is broken, but to be honest, I can't see him playing an active part in this race even if he continues. Porte is in to around evens, Aru 6/4, Contador out to 5/1 on Betfair tonight. It will be a shame to lose him though he was looking lively and up for a fight and it would have been great to see them do battle on several more occassions in the next two weeks. Porte is looking good now, let's hope he stays fit and healthy!

The Route

We head further south along the left side of Italy, along the Tirrenean coast for the first 70kms or so before they turn and head inland to Tuscania. From there they turn right and head south-east again and head in a pretty straight line for 135kms between Tuscania and Cave along quite undulating roads. They skirt along the outskirts of Roma as they pass the Autodromo Di Vallelunga after 152kms, a motor-racing test track used by a number of F1 teams. 

After 184kms they take on the only categorised climb of the day, the Cat 4 Monterotondo, a short little bump at just 3.2kms, but from there the road gets tougher and hillier, despite there not being any more categorised climbs. As they approach the finish in the spa town of Fiuggi, the road rises up in three sections, taking them to 616m at the finish. This is the longest stage in the race at a very testing 264kms, and with the final pull up to the line for the last 8kms to Fiuggi and an uphill sprint finish, this is going to be a tough day in the saddle, a day for the toughest puncheurs.

Contenders and Favourites

After the sprinters had their fun today, it's back to a stage for the classics men with a monster long stage over increasingly difficult terrain. This could be a stage for another break-away, lots of riders will again be trying to get in the big move in the hope of a repeat of stages 4 and 5. This stage will revolve around who gets in the break, and how hard the likes of OGE, BMC, TFR and Movistar decide to chase to bring it back for their respective punchy sprinters. 

Starting with OGE, they have had a brilliant week so far with two stage wins and three pink jerseys. They lost the jersey but have vowed that their race isn't over.. This is another stage that is marked in their road books as one they should be really going for. They have been working hard, but not that hard when you think about it. Chaves and Clarke yes, have been in breaks and working hard, the rest of the team, bar Weening for a while, have had it pretty easy. Chaves can take it easy tomorrow and just try to stay with the favourites, Clarke might be asked to work a bit, but the other big engines like Durbridge, Bewley and Lancaster have had a relatively easy time for several stages now and should be working hard tomorrow to control things.

When it gets to the finish, then it looks perfect for Michael Matthews. Looking at the finishing 10kms on the right hand side, the first 5.5kms are at a steady average of 4.4%, then it levels out a little with 4kms to go and then kicks up at 4% again for the last 500m. The pace should be really high on the first part of the climb and it should be pretty strung out as they hit the flat part where Durbridge, Clarke, Gerrans and co should take over and lead Matthews in to the last 500m. Expect Gerrans to take him to about 200m to go and launch him to his sprint. 

I think he has a big chance of winning again tomorrow and the 6/1 with PP or Skybet is worth a bet. Simon Gerrans is very tempting too at 18/1 with BetVictor, the team captain could take a stage like this too if anything happened with Matthews. 

Philippe Gilbert should fancy this sort of finish too, it's a little bit like the finish of Amstel Gold with the pull up to the finish, but he'd maybe have preferred it to be a little bit longer at the top and a little bit steeper, faster 'sprinters' like Matthews might do him. He should be involved though in the first 10 or so, but can he make the podium at 8/1? It's very possible. 

Fabio Felline has come very close with a 2nd place on stage3, this sort of finish should suit him too. Trek don't have the best team though here to put him in to the right spot in the last 2kms, BMC and OGE are probably far better suited to doing that sort of leadout. I think he is capable of a top 6 finish but not sure about the podium. I'm going to leave him at just 16/1.

JJ Lobato though is another interesting one - he was getting in some sprinting practice today on a flat stage finish that didn't really suit him, sprinting to 14th place. Movistar haven't had a great week so far, their GC pretenders are well out of contention already and they really need to start stage hunting now. Lobato was excellent in these kinds of finishes early in the season and with the pressure building, and with him stretching his legs today in the sprint, I fully expect him to be up there tomorrow and the 14/1 with Skybet was good enough for me. 

Sacha Modolo came much closer today, making up a little bit for missing out on stage 2, if he can hang in there tomorrow he could be a big danger too. Same for Mezgec, but even though he was up sprinting today I think he still isn't 100% and I'm not backing him for tomorrow, not sure he'll be involved in the sprint. I don't think Viviani will make the sprint, but André Greipel might well do.. He climbs better than you might think and could well hang in there. With the Points Jersey competition wide open, with L-S in good form as we saw today, and with AG buoyed by his victory today, he could well be sprinting for the win. I'm very tempted by the 33/1 on offer, but I think I'll leave it..

Diego Ulissi of last year could win, but he's not Ulissi of last year and riding Pan Y Agua doesn't seem to be as effective. Hofland, Gavazzi and Colbrelli could be involved but I don't think they are good enough. Grega Bole could be involved at the finish today though, a late attack could be something he could try or even if he waited for the sprint he could go well too. The 33/1 with Bet365 looks ok, was hoping for bigger though. 

Of course the break of the day could make it, and also if the likes of BMC or OGE put men in the break then they will have less reason to chase. With Contador possibly out, possibly riding with a badly injured shoulder tomorrow, T-S are sure to just try and control the peloton and keep the pace low so he has an easy day in the saddle. Picking who will be in the break is almost impossible, so I'll leave it.

I think though that this looks perfect for Matthews to get back on track, with Lobato and Gilbert chasing him home. Gerrans, Modolo, Bole, and Felline can fight it out for the other 3 placings.  

One last thing to add, Lobato has tweeted tonight to say the feelings are coming back in his legs and he hopes for even more tomorrow.. 

Recommendations -

1pt each-way on Michael Matthews at 6/1 with Skybet

0.5pts win on Matthews at 6/1

0.75pts each-way on Lobato at 14/1 with Skybet 

0.25pts each-way on Bole at 33/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Nizzolo to beat Viviani - 2pts at 13/8 with Bet365

Formolo to beat Monfort - 1.2pts at 5/6 with Will Hill

Modolo to beat Mezgec - 3pts at 8/13 with 365

Nizzolo to beat Viviani, Matthews to beat Lobato, Gilbert to beat Bole - 1pt on treble at 4.1/1 with WillHill