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Published on Monday, 11 May 2015 21:54

Giro d'Italia St 5

La Spezia to Abetone

Wed. 13th May, 152kms 

This is the Giro. And they love their climbs in the Giro, so how about hitting them with a nasty summit finish on just the fifth stage? Why not? We finally leave the Ligurian coast as they head in an S shape up in to the hills to Abetone, to a summit finish made famous by Fausto Coppi when he won his first Giro in 1940.

There is a memorial to him on the side of the road but the climb has been used 3 times in total in the Giro, the last time in 2000 when Francesco Casagrande won on a similar sort of stage from Prato. 

This is sure to be a stage that will put reasonable time gaps between the challengers and the rest. The final climb isn't the hardest in the race by a long way, but the combination of it's length and the hard section in the middle will probably mean we will have maybe 10-20 of the GC candidates coming to the last few kilometres here. It's a stage for a puncheur, or Richie Porte type rather than the real mountain goats though, the climb isn't very steep and it's pretty steady, with the max section of 10% being only about 200m long. 

The Route

After starting in La Spezia they roll along for around 35kms as they head north-east in to the Tuscan hills. After 35kms or so of slowly rising roads, They start on the long climb up to Foce Carpinelli after approx 35kms at Rometta and this Cat 3 climb drags on for a very long 23kms. The average gradient isn't too hard though at around 3.2%, it shouldn't really cause too many problems and we should see the majority of the peloton still together at the top of it. 

They then descend for about 33kms, go over a little bump at Barga at the 97kms mark and then once down in the valley in Bagni Di Lucca they can look up in to the hills to their left and see where they have to ride up to. They loop around past La Lima where the categorised climb to Abetone starts from, with the official distance given at 17.3kms at an average of 5.4%. The average is a bit deceptive though as the first 4.5kms average only 2.8% and there are sections near the top average 2% and 1%. From kilometre 4.5 to 12.5 though it gets tougher, averaging 7.2%. After they leave Cutigliano at the start of this section, the road gets extremely twisty with something like 15 hairpin bends in this section as they head towards Le Regine, reaching a max gradient of 10%.

From here the road straightens out and flattens out a little with just 3.5kms to go, but kicks up again with the last 1500m averaging 5.6% and it rises all the way to the line.  

Contenders and Favourites

Where do you even begin to try to explain what happened in today's stage. It was crazy, chaotic, frantic day. I thought the stage might be exciting, but I, and I don't think many others expected anything like that. A huge break that get 10 minutes.. Roman Kreuziger on the attack, yet Tinkoff-Saxo do a huge amount of the chasing? The lead group splinters all over the place and a 9 minute lead is cut to a 2 minute lead in about 30kms as Astana, with five men at the front absolutely decimate the field?

A young, courageous Italian winning the stage at a price of probably 100/1 or something like that? Rigo Uran, Van Den Broeck, Landa, Izagirre and Konig all losing time as Astana continued with their demolition job? Zakarin loses over 17 minutes? (Hope I put some of you off backing him...). It was an amazing stage of racing but unfortunately for me an absolute disaster, with not one bet winning for the blog and I handed back everything won in the first three stages. Back to the drawing board.. Formolo did his chances of giving us a return on the 12/1 each-way for young riders jersey a power of good though, he now sits 3rd, 10 minutes ahead of the 4th place rider. 

So on to stage 5 - It's another shortish stage at just 152kms, but it could feel twice that after the exertions of today's stage! It's a strange profile to try to work out in terms of how late will the catch be made, if the catch is made! The first 35kms are going to be brutally fast I think, as many will want to get in the break of the day to try and hit that first climb with a gap on the peloton. There will also be plenty of climbers looking to get in the break to try to nab the points on the Cat 3 climb and . Once over the top of that climb with about 57kms gone they descend for more or less 50kms to the bottom of the final climb. 

The official distance as in the Abetone Climb tab graphic above is 17kms or so, but there is a little flat bit around the 3-5km mark before it kicks up for its steepest section between the 5km and 12.5km mark, before a final section which averages around 5%. But they will have been climbing for around 25kms already before this, where T-S and Astana are sure to be pushing at the front in an attempt to thin things, out but also possibly to catch the last of the break which may be still away until 5-10kms to go or so. 

The final climb isn't that hard really though, even Flecha said so on Eurosport the other day, so that opens it up to all sorts of potential winners. I wasn't sure we'd get an all out GC battle so early in the race, when I was thinking about this stage before. I think it's not steep enough for Contador or Aru to try to put the others under pressure, if anything it's more a gradient for the likes of Porte. We could see him attacking on that flat little section just before the final pull up to the finish which averages around 5% for a kilometre, Porte's kind of finish. But after seeing the way Astana did a US Postal on the stage today, I'm not so sure any more how the hill will be ridden.

I thought Richie Porte looked very comfortable today - he was always prominent and when Contador and Aru started trading punches near the top of the Biassa he quickly and easily got on their wheels and was pushing a big gear quite comfortably in behind and seemed content to let them duke it out up front. I like the look of Porte at 10/1 with Bet365.. he is only 6/1 with BetVictor. He used to live in Toscana and knows the climb well - take a look at this interview below with him, he looks to have a real glint in his eye about tomorrow's stage, I think he is really looking forward to it. 

I thought Alberto Contador looked under pressure at the top of the Biassa and I'm not sure his team are up for protecting him tomorrow, and I'm not sure the climb suits him. I'm not interested in him at 7/1 and definitely not at the 7/2 with BetVictor.

Rigo Uran could also go well here as there is a good possibility that a group of maybe 20 favourites or so could come to the finish together and he will be desperate to try to make up for yesterday and try to grab some bonus seconds time back. Lefevre put a brave face on the performace today though, saying that Uran has been suffering from a cold, maybe he'll have more power tomorrow. The 10/1 could be worth a bet if you think he can get over today's disappointment. 

What about the OGE guys who have been going so well? I was thinking that the way Bling Matthews was climbing before today it wasn't beyond the realms of possibilities that he can make it to the finish here if there is a bit of a stand-off among the favourites. After today's stage I'm not so sure anymore! He will have Clarke, Weening and Gerrans to help him though and it's a more steady gradient. After today's dramatic stage it might be a bit more sedate tomorrow.. On the climb to Montecassino last year it was 9kms at 5.1% and he hung in there to win the stage. The steeper section which is closer to 7% between kilometre 5 and 12 will be tough for him, but if it's a steady, but fast tempo by the likes of T-S and Sky he might just be alright. He is a huge 100/1 with Bet365, he's only 33/1 with PP. It's a long shot, but at those odds maybe worth a tiny interest.

The betting is all built around the GC climbers though, With Fabio Aru the 6/1 favourite. I wouldn't have had him as favourite for this stage yesterday, but after Astana's performance today then who knows what he could do tomorrow. He looked lively and looked like he was testing Contador today but he never really got anywhere, although his surge was enough to distance Uran. He's too short for me at 6/1, but he could be close to a podium spot. 

Again Ulissi is too short for me at 12/1, he should be a 33/1 shot I think, he finished another 17' down today. Damiano Cunego had reconned stage 4 and had targeted it, and for a long time was going really well, that was until the acceleration by Aru split things up.. then he suffered a lot and came home on his own 1'22". I fear that he may well suffer a similar fate tomorrow when the fast attacks go, he may not be able to stay with them. 

I think Zakarin's bubble is burst and I can't see him winning tomorrow and I think Visconti may be fatigued after his big efforts today, same for Formolo, can't see him being up there two day's running. Atapuma is riding well, but I don't think he has the finish for a climb like this, he'll be better on steeper hills. Mikel Landa could be an interesting choice for tomorrow, he could be sent up the road late on in the stage as a decoy for Aru, to make the other teams chase, he's got the power to possibly hold it all the way if they stall in any way behind. He worked hard for Aru today, and still managed to come home with the Uran group, just 42" behind the Aru group. 50/1 with BetVictor can be worth a shot.

His other team-mate Tiralongo rode brilliantly today, helping shred things, but that didn't help our bet on him, even though I think Astana were riding to try to bring it back for him for the sprint. He could get another chance tomorrow, I am afraid to leave him and then watch him win.. Damiano Caruso rode very well today, finishing with the Uran group 1'04" back on Formolo, he could go well on this climb too.

There are so many riders whose Giro is over already it's incredible - there were some huge time gaps today after just 4 stages, and there are only 12 riders within a minute of Clarke and only 26 riders within 4'17" and 153 riders are more than 10" down. This means there are loads of guys who might have taken it easy today and are also now looking for ways to salvage their Giro. Guys like Hesjedal, Izagirre, Battaglin, Bongiorno, Pirazzi, Felline, Anton and so on could either try it from the break of the day or with a late attack out of the lead group. 

Of course a break could make it, the GC men might be happy to let it go, as long as there are no dangers in the break.. They might be happy to call a truce tomorrow after today's drama, but somehow I doubt it! I think we will see a steady drive from several teams on the final climb and we could be down to 20-30 riders or so like today going in to the last 3-4kms. I have a good feeling we could see the first strike by Richie Porte tomorrow on the climb he knows well, but it's so hard to guess what's going to happen. It should be another great stage though..

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Richie Porte at 10/1 with Bet365 (that's gone now but there's 10/1 with Ladbrokes)

0.2pts each-way on Paolo Tiralongo at 125/1 with Bet365 

0.2pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 100/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Mikel Landa at 50/1 with Corals

Matchbets

Izagirre to beat Niemiec - 1.5pts at 6/5

Porte to beat Kreuziger - 5pts at 2/5 with Bet365

No match bets with PP yet and Bet365 are disappointingly not allowing multiples in the match bets either.

William Hill acca - Porte to beat Kreuziger, Uran to beat Van Den Broeck, Landa to beat Monfort, Konig to beat Nieve - 2pts at 10/3