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Published on Saturday, 09 May 2015 17:44

Giro d'Italia St 2

Albenga to Genova

Sunday 10th May, 177kms 

A day for the sprinters but also one for someone to go for the first mountains jersey of the race, always a keenly fought contest. With two laps of a flat finishing circuit we should see the sprinters fight it out for the stage win, but with tight, twisty roads around the old city of Genova they need to watch out for race-ending crashes..

The Route

A flat stage that should see the first sprint battle of the race as they head north-east along the Ligurian coast to Genova. It is almost dead flat all the way, but as they start they head south-west first on a 50km loop that takes them in to the hills above Albenga. They climb to San Damiano after 35kms which rises to 455m, but is uncategorised, but then head back down to their coastal route again. 

With 70kms along the coast there is the danger of cross-winds and echelons before they hit the first KOM of the race at Pratozanino, a Cat 4 little bump that rises at a 4.8% gradient for just over 4kms. Once at the bottom there's just 30kms along the coast again until they reach Genova for the start of two 9.5kms circuits. 

The finishing circuit runs through the city, through the Piazza de Ferrari, some of which is stone-slab paving, then on to a 1km stretch which rises at 4% gradient, so it's not entirely flat. They then descend down to the seafront and head back to the last kilometre which rises gently at about a 2% gradient. So it's not an entirely flat sprint finish which will level the playing field a little between Greipel and some of the others.  

Contenders and Favourites

Astana almost caused a big upset in the TTT today, doing a brilliant time that almost won it for them. But then along came the OGE machine and just blew them away to put Simon Gerrans in to the pink jersey as I predicted. Sky were very disappointing, finishing down way down in 9th place, Richie Porte losing 20 seconds already to Contador, 14 seconds to Aru and 8 seconds to Uran, but those gaps are probably not going to worry him too much.

I'd be a lot more worried if I was in the Tinkoff-Saxo camp with the way that Contador was struggling to hold the wheel, he looked stressed and tense before the off, shouting at his team-mates, he'll have a few days now though to work himself in to shape before the first climb on stage 5.  Otherwise, it was an excellent TT by them, I really didn't see them beating Sky by that margin. The result though sees Contador shorten to around 4/5 with Porte drifting slightly to 3/1 or so.

Jurgen Van den Broeck looked very strong today, leading Lotto-Soudal to victory in the match bet I put up last night against Lotto-Jumbo, he's been cut a little to 50/1, but still some 66/1 available. Aru has been cut a little as well after their great start, he's in to around 10/1. Etixx were an excellent winner of their match bet with BMC at 7/4 and the BMC outside the top 3 landed too to give us a 4.9pt profit on the first day.

As I tweeted at the time, I did manage to get 2 points matched at evens with about 2kms of Tinkoff's TT left to go, someone got a bit carried away and steamed in to backing TS at 1/2 even though they seemed to be waiting for a struggling Contador. They laid OGE at evens too, I couldn't resist that price. So a good start to the Giro, hopefully some of you have paid for your subscription already, the rest is free now! 

Paddy Power were the first out with their prices again on the Thursday before the race, again showing they lead the way with cycling pricing - no reason whatsoever that the others couldn't do the same, we all know the TTT isn't likely to change things whatsoever. It's just a shame that they now limit most of my bets to tiny stakes..

So André Greipel has been priced up as the 9/4 favourite for the sprint then, but my first reaction to that was no thanks.. I'd rather be laying than backing at that price. He often tends to start slowly in races and seems reluctant to get involved in the hustle and bustle of dangerous sprints. In the first stage of the Algarve this year - 13th; in Paris-Nice - 19th; in 3DDP - 11th in the sprint; in Turkey - 8th. In the TDF last year, 18th, 23rd, 6th on the first three sprint stages.. you get the picture.  

In the chaos of a first stage in the Giro on a twisty city circuit I don't want to be backing him at just 9/4. Next in the betting is Elia Viviani, and he's a hard one to work out. He hasn't won since the 5th February in Dubai, with his best result since a 3rd in KBK behind Kristoff and Cavendish when he came from a long way back. I don't really know why he went to Romandie as besides the TTT which Sky won he finished 120th, 121st, 125th, 125th and 132nd.. he never got a chance to try to even sprint.. There's not a lot to go on there to risk backing someone as inconsistent and prone to getting himself in to trouble at just 4/1. 

Giacomo Nizzolo - 5/1.. too short to me again given it's a flatter finish and he too seems to be struggling to win races, with the GP Nobili win against 3rd division opposition his only victory this year. He also failed to get his head in front last year in the Giro, finishing 2nd an incredible four times, 3rd once. I think he will do well in this race and pick up a number of podium spots in the sprints but not sure he'll be getting his race off to a winning start.

Sacha Modolo has been going well lately with a 3rd place in a stage of the 3DDP behind Kristoff and Greipel, followed by a stage win in the Tour of Turkey and a second and a fourth behind Cavendish. That sort of form and with him riding for a Lampre team fired up to get off to a good start, I think he could go close to winning this. It's going to be a rough and tumble last 3 kms or so but he is well capable in those sorts of situations. He'll have Ferrari, Richeze, Ullissi, Polanc and Gang Xu to look after him and if he can highjack the Lotto - Soudal train near the finish he might just take the stage. Not a great price at 6/1, but as he is the first I've said I fancy, and he's a bigger price than the other three then it's not so bad I guess!

I think Matthews, Lobato and Mezgec could be involved too but could be in the 5th to 10th sorts of placings, they will have other days in the days to come to go for it. With Gerrans in the Pink Jersey it may be that OGE just work to keep him out of trouble and keep the jersey a little longer until maybe Matthews can take over in the coming days. No one can take it off Gerrans if it finishes in a sprint. 

Moreno Hofland looks far too big to me at 25/1, especially considering he took a very impressive victory in Yorkshire just last weekend, outsprinting Pelucchi and the rest quite easily. They had said that he was feeling really good there and they fancied his chances in the race, but his record of results up to then put me right off him. He is a confident and likeable young man (just 23) but it is hard to know what the mood in the camp is like after George Bennett was pulled out by Lotto JumboNL after the UCI revealed that low Cortisol levels were found in a pre-race test last Thursday.

According to the UCI rules he could have ridden, but as LJNL are members of the MPCC they were forced to pull him out. This rule of the MPCC is because low Cortisol levels could indicate that the rider could be suffering from sub-optimal health conditions and it could harm him to keep racing until the levels are back within the accepted range. But back to Hofland - he could be worth a small bet at a big price of 25/1, they actually went pretty well today, finishing just 36" down.

Pelucchi, Boonen, Meersman, Ruffoni, Porsev and Haussler - they could all be involved at the finish, but it's impossible to say who will be the top of those lot, let alone whether they are capable of winning it. André Greipel should be the strongest and fastest sprinter in the race but I just can't back him because of the negatives I''ve put against him. Sacha Modolo could be capable of a podium, Hofland might get close at a big price. Not a day for big stakes though until we get a better idea of what sort of shape the sprinter's are in.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Sacha Modolo at 6/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Moreno Hofland at 25/1 with PP

Matchbets:

Ruffoni to beat Boonen - 2pts at 1/2 with 365

Contador to beat Porte - 2pts at 4/6 with PP (AC tends to finish high up in stages like this)

Modolo to beat Nizzolo - 1pt at 11/10 with PP

Hofland to beat Pelucchi - 1.5pts at 8/11 with PP

Gilbert to beat Chavanel - 1pt at 8/13 with 365