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Published on Monday, 25 May 2015 22:32

Giro d'Italia St 16

Pinzolo to Aprica

Tuesday 26th May, 177kms 

The last rest day was followed by what was supposed to be a nice easy sprint stage, almost like a second rest day for the GC men and climbers. As it was, it turned out to be yet another dramatic and stressful day, yet another on this crazy Giro. This time around they hit the high mountains again, on a brutally hard day where they start climbing right from the outset.

What do we make of the events of recent days, the last stage in the mountains before the rest day in particular? Well, Astana are just shooting right off the ridiculous scale now, so much for keeping a low profile after their UCI acquittal. The way they tore the race to pieces on the Madonna di Campiglio was just, well it was reminiscent of the bad old days of Pantani’s victory. It was Astana, Contador and a Katusha rider who fought out the win, the new era eh.

And it was annoying to see Landa do exactly as I thought he would do, attack while Contador was happy to let him and Trofimov take the bonus seconds, happy to just roll in on a day that he all but sealed his overall victory. I thought he had a good chance of winning, but thought 10/1 was too short.. Bookies knew he had a chance then too..

It has been unfortunate for Porte, Uran, their backers and the race that crashes have taken them out of contention, but the way Porte has thrown in the towel is very disappointing. 27 minutes down on Landa in stage 15, it would make a lot of sense, to him in particular, if he just left the race now and try to prepare for the Tour with some other race like the Dauphine or the Tour de Suisse.

On the other hand, he should put his anger and disappointment to one side and support Konig who is now their GC man, sitting in 5th place, just 2'17" off the podium. Sky have been very poor with regards a team effort, it seems to have been every man for himself. Maybe the decision to give Dicky Doors his own camper van has backfired on them and has caused splits and resentment. I think the most significantly embarrassing thing for Porte was team sprinter Elia Viviani beating him in the TT. Ok, he might be injured, but apparently the team doctor said something to the effect that it was in his head.

What to make of Uran? After struggling through the first week with bronchitis he was still in with a chance of a podium spot but it looks like that innocuous crash on the Imola circuit caused more damage than they were letting on as his TT was a disaster for him, and that was followed by an even worse day in the mountains on stage 15 when he lost 8 mins to end his Giro also. Will he go after stage victories from now on? I don’t know if he’s capable. Like Porte, he should maybe think about packing it in and refocusing and recovering. 

The disappointing thing for me about this Giro is that there are very few who seem to be able to stick with the Astana and Contador group. Betancur looked like he might be in with a chance on stage 15, seemed to be climbing with the best of them, then bang – Landa went to the front, Betancur went out the back door. Kruiswijk is riding as well as he has ever done probably, but even he went out the back when Astana kicked things off in the last few kilometres.

Uran and Porte are crocked, the Movistar guys are good, but just not in the same league either, Amador and Intxausti are climbing well, but Intxausti is now in the hunt for the KOM jersey it’s likely that he will go on the attack but may not have much left for a stage finish if he has bust his ass to win KOM points earlier in the stages.
Geniez rode very well for a long time on the Madonna but started to struggle towards the last 5kms and suddenly he went pop too from the Astana power.

Damiano Caruso was behind him on the stage and now sits in 7th place overall, he seems to be steady and solid but doesn’t look capable of any sort of killer punch that could see him steal a stage or get back chunks of time. His team-mate Atapuma has been a disappointment too, finishing nearly 7 minutes down on Sunday. I suppose he could be excused for a poor show given his personal circumstances, but it doesn’t look like he is on the same level as these guys right now. A lot was expected of Esteban Chaves and he hasn’t done anything either, he has been like a rabbit in headlights at times.. he finished over 30 minutes down in the last stage and now sites in 46th place, 1 hour and 23 mins down. Will we see him challenge on the mountain stages to come? I can’t see it to be honest, it’s men against boys at the moment.

Cunego, Van den Broeck, Kreuziger, Moinard, Hesjedal and Formolo have been good, just not good enough. After that really, not many have got in to the race at all. It may look all done and dusted in the GC, but as we have seen over the last two weeks, anything and everything could happen yet in this race. I have a feeling the drama isn't over by a long way and we could see some final twists and turns before they get to Milan!

The Route

This is a really hard stage – they start climbing right from the flag drop, with the not too inconsiderable obstacle of the Campo Carlo Magno, a Cat 2 climb which is 13kms long at an average of 6.7%. This hard start sets the tone for the rest of the day - five hard climbs with hardly a flat kilometre of road on the long 177km distance, where they climb a total of 4500m. They start heading north-east to Dimaro, and then take a sharp left turn after 29kms. 

They next start the long and hard climb of the Passo del Tonale, 26kms at an average of 4.3%, although the categorised part of the climb 15.3kms at an average of 6.1%, hitting a max of 10%. That is followed by a massive 30km descent which is quite tricky in parts and eventually brings them to the start of the final loop as they pass Edolo.

They start the climb of the Arpica from the valley after 88kms, and it's 14kms at an average of 3.5%, but it varies in steepness quite a lot - the first kilometre is only 1.2% as they ease in to the nasty second kilometre which averages 11.1%, hitting a max of 15%. It then zig-zags through the next 2kms at 3.5% average, descends for a bit, before starting on the more regular, steady climb to the finish with the final 7kms of the climb averaging 3.3%. It is passed twice, with the finish of the stage at the top of the climb the second time around.

In between though they have to cross the Mortirolo - a nasty, horrible beast of a climb that will blow the race to pieces. It is officially measured at 11.8kms at a painful 10.9%, hitting a maximum of 18%, with 6kms in the middle of the climb averaging 12.2%. The last kilometre eases back to just 8.8%! From the top of the Mortirolo there are just 35kms to go, 17kms of which are descending before they start on the final climb up to Aprica again. The final climb is not that tough once they get over the steep kilometre at the bottom, the race will probably be won and lost on the Mortirolo. 

Contenders and Favourites

Break or GC? That's the question again. It's always hard to know exactly how riders will react after a rest day, especially after such a hard two days before the rest day. Like last year, the day after the second rest day is the queen stage and the hardest of the entire race. But also, like two years ago, when they last climbed the Mortirolo it was the penultimate climb of the day. The last time the Giro finished on the Arpica, Scarponi, Nibali and Basso escaped on the Mortirolo and Scarponi sprinted to the win. 

So again we have Contador the 3/1 favourite, Aru the second favourite at 8/1 and Landa not far behind at 10/1. If it does come down to a GC battle, then you'd have to think it will be these three fighting it out again. Will Contador go for the jugular this time or will be be just happy to ride along to Milan and save as much energy as he can for the TDF now? He seems to have an answer for everything Aru can throw at him, and he more or less has Landa covered too. It just depends on whether he wants to land the Queen stage or not in the pink jersey. Many people thought that he might want to win the stage to the Madonna di Campiglio, but he was just happy to roll in and preserve his comfortable lead. 

It will be interesting to see what the peloton decides to do on the first climb. With such a brutal day ahead of them they might call a truce and take it easy on the first climb, just so that the GC men will have more help on the later climbs. If they go flat out from the start then they might find that the race will be blown to pieces with just 10% of the route covered! What is likely to happen I think is that a strong break of climbers get away, maybe 8-10 guys and then the peloton settles down in to a rhythm.

There is a good chance I think that if the make-up of the group is strong enough and with the right teams in it they could go all the way. The GC men will start to battle it out on the Mortirolo but then may take it easy on the final descent. If the break has 2 minutes or so going on to the final climb, they could make it, it's not the hardest climb in the world and they should be able to keep a good tempo going all the way up. Behind, cat and mouse between Contador and Astana could also play in to the breakaway's hands.

Let's start with breakaway candidates - Carlos Betancur again. I thought he rode well on the stage 15, he just found the pace from Astana too hot at the finish. He needs to get in the break of the day instead and then ride at a more comfortable tempo at the crucial point in the race. I think he has a stage win in him, this could be a great chance for him becuase of the dynamic of the course and what could be going on behind him. If he gets to the final kilometre with a small group he has the sprint to win the stage. He's not a great price anymore at just 16/1 with PP, but it's worth keeping him on-side though, he is bound to win if we're not on him.

Ryder Hesjedal again too - like Betancur he seems to be one of the guys just a level below the top men. He rode well in stage 15 also, riding away from the group he was with to go in pursuit of Contador's group. He hadn't a hope of catching them but he showed that he has the legs to ride away from quite a lot of the guys around him. 18/1 is a crap price again, but I'd be kicking myself if he got in the break of the day and I wasn't on.

Benat Intxausti is bound to do his utmost to get in the break, he is looking to hold on to his KOM jersey and there are lots of points available today to the guys who just behind him in the table. I think he will possibly get in to the break, but I'm not sure the finish suits him as much as some others. 

Steven Kruisqwijk has been a joy to watch, contstantly attacking, sticking with the big GC men for as long as possible, he deserves something out of this race. I wouldn't be surprised to see him try the break again tomorrow, but at the same time, he now sits in 14th place and is less than 2 minutes off the top 10. It might pay dividends to play the waiting game tomorrow, stick with the GC men and gain time possibly on some of those around him and move closer to the top 10. Then later in the week he might get a chance to go on the attack again if he has crept in to the top 10. 

Darwin Atapuma has been disappointing as I said before, but you couldn't rule him out of the break tomorrow. At 33/1 though I'll leave him, I'd want twice that price on him. Gio Visconti could be a big danger to the break too, it's possible that Movistar get a few men in the move, one to ride with Intxausti. Visconti could be one.

I've been a little bit out of the loop on a family holiday in Devon and Cornwall, so I only found out tonight when doing this preview that Porte has abandoned. Not that we didn't see that coming I guess! It leaves Konig battling for the GC and I think Mikel Nieve will be asked to look after him now, Sky will want to salvage a good GC place out of this disaster for them. So I'm not backing Nieve for the break tomorrow. 

Igor Anton had a dreadful start to the race and there was one shot in particular summed it up when the cameras singled him out getting dropped on one of the easier climbs on the first week. I had picked him as a possible candidate for the KOM competition and that tanked in the first week. Since then though he has got better and was climbing with the leaders on the Passo Daone but crashed on the descent and lost contact. If he isn't too badly hurt after that I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the attack tomorrow. The early steep climbs and the Mortirolo will suit him. The 66/1 with Coral is worth a shot. 

What about Astana then - will they send a man in the break so they don't need to chase, or to have someone to help Aru if he comes up later in the stage? They could send LL Sanchez or Diego Rosa or Tanel Kangert, all three have been looking strong, but Sanchez hasn't been climbing brilliantly of late. Instead though, I am thinking Paolo Tiralongo coud be sent up the road. He has been ridiculously powerful in these first two weeks and he could well fancy it tomorrow. The Mortirolo will be hard but he can maybe play the old "I'm not taking too many turns, I'm riding for Aru today" line and sit in, then attack on the easier slopes of the Arpica. Even if it comes to a sprint finish amongst a small group he has a chance. Even if he stays with Aru and the break is caught on the final climb he could well attack towards the finish like Landa today in an effort to soften Contador, and might just stay away. 100/1 with Corals is worth a shot.  

Jurgen Van Den Broeck was climbing well on stage 15 but crashed on the descent of the Passo Daone also and lost contact with the leaders. He seemed to power up the final climb though, he was at the front a lot and riding comfortably, but maybe he did too much as when Hesjedal attacked he had nothing left to go with him. He can go on the attack early sometimes too, remember that stage to Courcheval in the Dauphiné last year, when he was with the break that included Talansky, the time he gained that day lifted him to 3rd in the overall.

It just depends what his mindset is right now.. Does he want to attack and go for stage victories or does he want to just stay and test himself with the GC leaders and possibly move a few places higher in the GC. He is currently sitting in 11th place, only 2" behind Geniez in 10th and it may be that if he gets in the break FDJ will help with the chase in order to preserve Geniez's place in the GC. It's a tough one, I'm tempted to back him, and as he is as big as 100/1 he's worth a small stake. 

What about some of the tougher puncheur types? If they can get in the break of the day the final climb isn't that tough at all and would suit the likes of Gilbert, Geschke or Ulissi. They may lose contact on the Mortirolo if there are some decent climbers in the group, but with 30kms of descending they could get back on again before the final climb. At the prices they are it's worth scattering a few small bets around. Simon Geschke is a hard man that would go well on the final climb and is riding very well. Philippe Gilbert has been doing very well on some of the climbing stage, culminating in his excellent stage win, if he can get to the final climb he should go well - he may even attack on the Mur du Huy type slopes at the bottom that hit 18%. Diego Ulissi likewise is riding well, climbing well and does get in to the occassional break on a day like this too.

I'm leaning towards the break making it, but if they don't it's a real hard one to call. I don't want to back Contador as he seems to be very strong, but maybe lacking the killer kick that should take him to victory. But he could do anything - he could attack on the Mortirolo and leave them all behind, he could attack on the steep slopes at the bottom of the Arpica, or he could wait for the finishing kick. But I'm not sure he can win in any of those situations against this impossibly strong Astana team. Landa and Aru will be sticking to him like glue and if anything, it could be Landa again who accelerates to victory at the finish. One to watch maybe in play for those three. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Carlos Betancur at 16/1 with PP

0.4pts each-way on Ryder Hesjedal at 18/1 with Corals

0.3pts win on Paolo Tiralongo at 100/1 with Corals

0.2pts win on Philippe Gilbert at 250/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Simon Geschke at 150/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on JVDB at 100/1 with PP