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Published on Wednesday, 20 May 2015 22:30

Giro d'Italia St 12

Imola to Vicenza (Monte Berico) 

Thursday 21st May, 190kms 

If only Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Dan Martin or Dani Moreno were here it would be a bit easier to pick a winner of this stage, given the punchy finish. A final 500m at over 10% is a finish for specialists in short punchy affairs, but we could see two battles, one for the stage and one between the GC men for small time gains.

Giovanni Visconti won here in 2013, soloing to victory after attacking from the remnants of the peloton with 20kms to go and catching and then dropping Di Luca and Rubiano Chaves on the climb of the Crosara.

He held off the chasing pack to take his second victory in three days, after winning on the Col du Galibier two days previously. It was a very different finish that day though on the flat, and behind him Navardauskas sprinted to what he thought was victory as you can see in the video below.. he beat Mezgec, Pozzato, Modolo and Felline that day.

It's a strange route in that the first 130kms are as flat as they come, the peloton will be going just hard enough to keep the break within catching distance but won't be killing themselves. Many will have no interest in doing anything today, the finish won't suit them, but there will be several teams who will be keen to ensure they don't make a balls-up like on stage 10 and 11 when they let the break stay away. Lotto-Soudal can take a day off, as they don't really have anyone for this finish. 

Instead we will be looking to the likes of BMC for Gilbert, OGE for Gerrans, Lampre for Ulissi, Cannondale Garmin for Tom-Jelte Slagter, AG2R for possibly Betancur and Nocentini, and of course the likes of Astana for Aru or maybe someone like Landa or Sanchez, or Tinkoff-Saxo for Contador or Kreuziger. There are plenty other dark horses hidden in the pack though that could have been targeting this finish so it should make for an interesting finish.

What else can you say about this Giro.. Got one of the men of the breakaway in Hesjedal, but he decides to lead out from 800m and finishes last of the escape group. He looked more interested in ensuring they weren't caught by the peloton than the stage and led out Betancur and Co. As for Betancur - I backed him a few days ago, bigged him up yesterday and then didn't back him when he gets 2nd place today.. Grrrrr.

And Ilnur Zakarin soloes away from his fellow breakaway riders and despite it being just him versus six strong riders he put a minute in to them in a matter of a few kilometres. Not normal, and bloody frustrating. And then of course we had 'Helmetgate' hot on the heels of 'Wheelgate' - Alberto Contador causing a twitter hoo-ha as he removed his helmet in the middle of the race, an act punishable by disqualification.. Let's see if the organisers stick to the letter of the UCI rules on this one.. Somehow I doubt it.. 

Anyway, we soldier on, like Porte, I have ground to make up! 

The Route

129.7kms of flat nothingness starts this stage as they continue to head north towards the mountains. It's a longer stage than the last few though at 190kms and has a real sting in the tail at the end of it though. They leave Imola and head northwards to Galzignano Terme where they meet the first bump of the day at Castelnuovo, a 6km Cat 4 climb which averages 5%. After a twisty little descent for 12kms they are back on the flat for another 15kms until they reach the next little bump at Crosara, a tougher climb than the Castelnuovo. Although it is only 3.5kms long it averages a much tougher 9.1% and hits a max of 17%. With 2kms at over 10% it should see the peloton probably reduce in half at least.

With 15.5kms to go they pass through Fimon and take on an uncategorised climb of just over 2kms which averages around 9%, where we could see some try a bid for glory as the summit comes with just 12.8kms to go. It then bumps along a gentle descent for around 5kms before a flat run in to the final kick up to the finish. The final hill is around 1km and averages 7.1%, but the last 500m are 10.5% average, hitting 11% for the last 100m or so. There are no real complications in the last kilometres and the final 300m are just straight uphill.

The weather is forecast to be pretty bad again tomorrow, with it forecast to rain in the afternoon with temperatures dropping to 15 degrees in the afternoon. They will have a cross-headwind for most of the day but as they hit the final 800m it wil be a tail-wind up the finishing straight.

Contenders and Favourites

I slipped up by not spotting that Malaguti of Nippo - Vini Fantini was from the finishing town of Forli on Tuesday.. I always like to have an interest in riders with a reason to ride on certain stages. He finished 3rd and could well have been as big as 500/1 to win that stage, although as someone working at a bookies pointed out to me, it's unlikely that he was even priced up by most..  

So to start with here I did a bit of research and found that Enrico Battaglin of Bardiani is from Marostica, a town just 30kms from the finish town here of Vicenze. And given the finish, I would be very surprised if Rico has not put a big red circle around this stage and has been up there practicing the final climb ever since the route was announced. He probably knows all these roads pretty well and may even have raced on them at some point in his life. 

Bardiani have their stage win already with Boem's victory on stage 10, so the pressure is off, but I think they will be all out for this one in support of Battaglin. I think they will let the other teams do all the work to pull back the break (may even put someone like Boom in the break of the day to ease the pressure) and then come to the front in the last 5kms. They have strong enough riders like Pirazzi, Bongiorno, Colbrelli, Zardini and maybe even Ruffoni, who can possibly get over those final climbs with the front group and could set it up nicely for him hitting the last 500m.

It is a straight uphill sprint so he will have to get a good lead out from maybe Pirazzi and Bongiorno but if they know the climb well and he knows how to guage his effort on the climb then he definitely has a chance at a very big price. Sure, he's an outsider and may not be considered a big rival by some of the favourites , but that could play in to his hands and also means he is a pretty decent price at 66/1 with Bet365, he's only 33/1 with PP.   

Philippe Gilbert is as short as 9/2 to win this stage, and you can see why given the finish. He has also targeted the stages of this week and has been unlucky with the way breaks have been let stay away so far. He has shown he has good legs though with a 3rd place on the uphill sprint on stage 3 won by Matthews, and also on stage 7 to Fiuggi he was very unlucky as he was right in the mix but dropped his chain 1400m from the line. He was very frustrated with that but still managed to finish 13th. And then today he jumped off the front with Paterski and finished 9th on the stage. I think he has a big chance tomorrow with that finish and with the form he is in, BMC need to step up and do a bit of work though to ensure he is in a good place at the crucial moments in the last 500m.

Diego Ulissi has shown on stage 6 that he is somewhat back to the form that saw him take two stages in the Giro last year, amongst other wins on uphill finishes. Lampre deployed some surprise tactics on the run in to the finish in Fiugi with Modolo leading out Ulissi, it even caught the commentators out who thought Modolo had won. But the lead-out up to that had been excellent, the fuchsia jerseys very much in evidence in the last 5kms. I think it could be something similar here, Lampre will come with 3 or 4 guys in the last 3kms and try to put Ulissi up with the likes of Gilbert and Gerrans. He will need to hold his sprint to the last 100m or so but is well capable of winning this stage if he still has the same legs that won in Fiugi. 

Tom Jelte-Slagter was unlucky with his brave effort on Sunday, just ran out of gas at the end. I include him as a possible winner as he is the highest finisher in this year's Fleche-Wallone starting here, a good comparison I think for what sort or rider could win here. He finished 9th that day but has also finished in 5th place in 2014 on the Mur. He also has some good results on similar finishes, winning a stage of the TDU in 2013 up the hill to Stirling. He has also finished 6th in LBL last year. 33/1 is just about tempting.

What about Roman Kreuziger? He might be let have a go for himself here, he hardly needs to pace or babysit Contador on this finishing hill. 11th in FW and 5th in LBL, he looks a good price at 100/1 for a small interest. Fabio Aru may try something, he seems to want to attack anywhere and everywhere, but I think it would be a waste of energy and he should just let the puncheurs to it. 

Betancur and Nocentini for AG2R could get in contention, Betancur is clearly getting his legs back, I was just a little premature with backing him on Saturday, he landed himself a 2nd place today. He could well spring off the front and let Nocentini sit in, if he is chased down, Nocentini could go. 

Lobato or Intxausti could be right up there at the finish but 13/2 is a bit short for me for Lobato, Intxausti will probably be asked to lead him out so even the 100/1 doesn't really appeal. Visconti is 33/1 and he also could try flying off the front on the run in like he did two years ago, but as I mentioned already, that was a flat finish that time, this is a tougher finish. 

Gerrans or Matthews? The bookies reckon Matthews as he is 7/1, Gerrans is 18/1 but to be honest I think I'd be picking Gerrans over Matthews on this finish, I think it might be just a little too steep for Matthews, but more suited to Gerrans, and at over twice the price he is better value. I think they will decide it on the road depending on how well Matthews gets over the steep climb of the Perarolo not far from the finish.

Cunego, Contador, Pirazzi, Felline - all could get involved, and of course we could see a random break stay away again tomorrow, but I think they won't let it happen this time. Philippe Gilbert, Ulissi, Gerrans, Slagter, and hopefully Battaglin and Kreuziger may well battle it out, but I wouldn't put it past Zakarin to win the stage by 5 minutes.....

Recommendations:

1.5pts win on Philippe Gilbert at 7/1

0.25pts each-way on Enrico Battaglin at 66/1 with Bet365

0.1pts each-way on Roman Kreuziger at 100/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way on Tom Jelte Slagter at 33/1 with PP

Matchbets

Izagirre to beat Amador - 2pts at 10/11 with WillHill

Uran to beat JVDB - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365