Details

Published on Monday, 18 May 2015 21:50

Giro d'Italia St 10

Civatanvo Marche to Forli

Tuesday 19th May, 199kms 

Rest day over and it's a nice, gentle re-introduction to racing, with probably one of the easiest and non-descript stages of the Giro. With barely a ripple in the road on the way to Forlì, the views should be spectacular, but the racing maybe a little less so. It should be a good battle among the Points Jersey contenders though. 

Forlì has hosted a Giro finish on 8 occassions in the past, dating back to 1925, with the most recent winner being Robbie Mc Ewan back in 2005. Forli is also the home town of Erole Baldini, winner of the Giro in 1958.

So we are a week in to the race and what have we learned? Well it's been, in the words of Mick Rogers "Mental". Says something that a war-beaten old pro like him is saying it has been mental. It has been full gas almost every single day. It started with a team time trial that was won in fine style by OGE, and at times the rest of the race has resembled another Team Time Trial with the way Astana and Tinkoff Saxo have been lining out the race.

Astana have many fans just shaking their heads in disbelief and disappointment. Twitter has just been abuzz with reference to the UCI decision process and how, rather than coming in and keeping a low profile, it's almost as if they are sticking their two fingers up at the UCI and everyone else. From the young guys like Aru, who should be weak and tired from an illness that cost him 5kgs through to old boys like Tiralongo, who won the latest stage today, they have just been battering everyone. Mikel Landa has been a revelation and even today again he was riding like a GC contender, pulling away with Aru, Porte and Contador.

I've been saying it all week though, let's see where they are at the end of the third week.. can they keep this pace up for three weeks? Well if they can then I think we may as well give up hope that Astana have learned their lesson and they are riding clean. It's simply not possible. Tinkoff-Saxo are not far off them though and inspired by their captain riding through the pain barrier to hold on to his pink jersey despite a claimed dislocated shoulder, they too have been riding very hard at the front all week. 

Despite all the show and power displays, what have they to show for it? Well not a great deal.. Yes, there would seem to be just three riders in with a chance of winning overall, possibly six, but Contador has just 4" on Aru and 22" on Porte, and after all Astana's posturing and pulling, they couldn't get the Jersey off of Contador. The three at the top were the top three in the betting before the race started, and they are still the top three in the betting in the same order - Contador is 6/5, Porte is 15/8 and Aru is 4/1. It's not a done deal of course that this is our podium, there's a long way to go yet and anything could happen. If any more misfortune should befall on Contador, Kreuziger is sitting in 6th place, just 1'46" off the lead, he is 150/1. Of course, he could actually be leading the race if his own team hadn't chased him down when he was in that break. If anything happens to Aru, Astana have two excellent backups in Landa and Cataldo who are 46" and 1'15" back respectively and are as big as 50/1 and 125/1. 

Richie Porte though must be pretty happy with the way things have gone this week. He has shadowed everything, he has not shown his cards, he has not wasted a joule of energy, nor has his team. There has been plenty of criticism of the team for their lack of support for Porte and how little we saw of them near the front, but they are playing the long game here, whereas Astana and Tinkoff-Saxo are displaying signs of naivety and panic. Porte has been perfectly fine and Sky did start to show themselves a little on Stage 8 on Saturday, but I think they are under strict instructions from Dave T to just take it easy, spare themselves and give it all to Richie in the third week if he has a lead to defend in the TT. Of course, everyone is waiting for his 'off-day' and it could possibly come after the rest day when the body can react strangely to having a day off. But so far, so good, and I certainly am pretty happy with my positions on Porte. 

Other than that we have seen Michael Matthews, Elia Viviani and André Greipel sprint to victories, Jan Polanc, Davide Formolo, Benat Intxausti and Paolo Tiralongo with excellent breakaway wins and Diego Ulissi landing another blow for ex-dopers this season. 

As for the bets so far, I've been up and down and very unlucky with some bets - Lobato pipped at 14/1, an 8.2/1 acca on stage 8 beaten by ONE place, Cunego finishing just ahead of Caruso, Hofland just being pipped by Viviani at 25/1 and some good winners in there too. The net result is a small loss of -2pts so far. Plenty of time to turn it around though, one big one like Geschke winning at 150/1 would be very nice indeed! 

The Route

Not a lot to say about this stage route-wise, it's an almost dead-flat jaunt along the sea-side that is almost certainly going to end in a sprint. There is a 'climb' 106kms in, but to call it a climb is a gross exaggeration when you compare it to what lies ahead of them in the coming days. It's a Cat 4 bump that is only around 2kms long and only rises to 169m, which they crest after 106.9kms. It should serve no other purpose really other than to give the riders some nice views of the coast for ten minutes. 

It bumps along for about another 20kms until they reach Misano Adriatico, and from there it's a dead-flat run for 73kms to the finish in Forlì. The only thing that could shake things up on a day like this would be the possible coastal winds whipping in from the Adriatic Sea, as they spend around 150kms hugging the coast.  

The finish could be really tricky though. With 1.2kms to go they hit a 700m long pavé section, which sounds worse than it actually is, the cobbles are small and very smooth as you can see in the picture below, but riders will still have to be on their toes. Then 100m later there's a 90° right hander as they head towards the flamme rouge, and with 800m to go as they come out of the beautiful Piazza Saffi they go through a very narrow passageway that could be a real pinchpoint and I wouldn't be surprised to see a crash here. You can see that pinch-point in the picture below too. With 450m to go their is one last left hand turn on a big rounabout before they hit the long, wide and flat finishing straight.

Contenders and Favourites

With so few first division sprinters here, lead-out trains are vitally important to help set up a win. And as we have seen so far, Greipel has by far the best lead-out with his Lotto-Soudal train. André Greipel to me is a very strong favourite for this again, it should be a straight forward victory for the powerful German again. There's no 3/1 available on him this time though, he is best price 11/8 with PP, he's 5/4 with Bet365, the rest of the bookies are slow as usual to price it up, as of Sunday night.  

I say it should be a straight forward but there is a very important point where the race could be won or lost - the team that leads through the last 1500m will probably win the stage. First as they hit the Pavé with 1200m to go, Lotto-Soudal will need to be pushing it hard at the front with the likes of Hansen and Henderson, with Greipel sitting 3rd or 4th wheel. Then as long as they get through the pinch-point highlighted above at the front of the race they should hit the last left-hander with 450m to go with a clear run to the line, delivering Greipel with 200m to go. If they get it really, really right there might not be a whole lot of sprinters in contention as it will be very hard to get other trains organised and to move up on such a tricky, narrow run to the last 500m and there could even be little splits.

Elia Viviani is one of his biggest rival in terms of ability and speed and is also second favourite in the betting at 5/1. Viviani's problem, which I highlighted when leaving him out of my thinking for stage 6, is that he doesn't have a train here at all really for him, they are all here for Richie, even Viviani is doing his part. At the same time, he is fighting for the sprinters jersey and Greipel could be a big danger for that so should be fighting hard for the win. He has a formidable track background so the rough and tumble in tight spaces shouldn't frighten him but he has a tendancy to get lost sometimes in tricky finishes, he was only back in 7th in that sprint in stage 6 for example, finding all sorts of trouble and weaving all over the road to try to get a run, but just didn't have the speed.

Sacha Modolo is the 6/1 3rd favourite and he got a lot closer on the last sprint, finishing 3rd behind Greipel and Pelucchi. He was unlucky in stage 2 when we had backed him, Nizzolo being a bit naughty but doing what sprinters have to do to try to win a race. He then was cast in to the role of lead-out for Diego Ulissi and Lampre landed their second stage win. Time for Ulissi to repay the favour and escort him through the tricky last 1200m. He has a podium chance again if they can negotiate the last bends towards the front, their train looked pretty strong on stage 6.

Giacomo Nizzolo is 10/1, and like in stage 6, I think he'll be 4th to 6th at best. He's been a little disappointing, especially in the hillier stages, but he's still in contention for the red sprints jersey. 

Matteo Pelucchi is also 10/1 and out of the two I'd have Pelucchi over Nizzolo any day for a sprint like this. He is one of the faster guys here and is well able to look after himself in the dangerous last kilometre. He came closest to the Gorilla on stage 6 and displayed a good turn of speed, after IAM did an excellent job. After Reichenbach got mugged by Intxausti on Saturday, and missing the key moves on Sunday, IAM will he keener than ever to get a result.  

Moreno Hofland is 16/1 and he's a tricky one for me.. I'm afraid he'll do another Tiralongo on me and win when I'm not on, after tipping him several times. After nearly winning stage 2, it hasn't been great for the Dutch man though, 

Luca Mezgec has been very disappointing, especially if you have been backing him at silly prices. He still doesn't look 100%, possibly not even 90%, his 4th place on stage 2 is the closest he has come. He's 20/1 for tomorrow but I'm not backing him, think he's a 4th to 10th man again. 

Michael Matthews is 33/1 and he could have a chance here of making the frame if OGE go for it and put the team to the front in the last 2kms. They have the power and the balls to take it to Lotto-Soudal heading in to the cobbles and the pinch-points. If Durbridge, Lancaster and Co. put the after-burners on they could deliver him near the front of the sprint trains with 200m to go. He offers a little bit of value at 33/1, or the 6/1 with 888Sport that he finishes in the top 3 is probably better. 

Nicola Ruffoni is 40/1 but I can't see him battling his way in to the top 5. After that, chances are pretty limited. It's almost certainly going to end in a bunch sprint and I think Greipel will take it from Pelucchi or Modolo, but Matthews could get involved at a big price, if the OGE boys go for it. Matty White will have them briefed on every metre of the finish and they'll hopefully know what they have to do to slingshot Matthews out of the final roundabout on Greipel's wheel. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on André Greipel at 11/8 with various

1pt on Michael Matthews to finish in the top 3 at 6/1 with 888Sports

1pt on Matteo Pelucchi to finish in the top 3 at 6/4 with 888Sports

Matchbets

Reza to beat Bole - 2pts at 10/11

Matthews to beat Lobato - 2pts at 5/6

Pelucchi to beat Hofland - 5pts at 4/7 all with Bet365

PP acca - Greipel to beat Viviani, Mezgec to beat Appolonio and Pelucchi to beat Hofland - 2pts at 7/4