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Published on Thursday, 07 May 2015 21:50

Giro d'Italia Jersey Betting 

Who's going to win the other Leader's Jerseys?

Not only is there a very distinct and unusual jersey for the leader of the race, a bright pink one, but there are also slightly unusual colours for the winners of the Mountains and Sprinters jerseys in the Giro. The leader of the sprints competition wears red, the leader of the King of the Mountains a deep blue jersey. At least the young riders stays white... 

Points Jersey

Like as is often the case with the Vuelta, the Giro's 'sprinters' points jersey can be difficult for pure sprinters to win, such is the amount of climbing that needs to be done over the three weeks. Can be difficult, but not impossible - Nacer Bouhanni led a bunch of sprinters in 2014, but the likes of Nizzolo and Mezgec who like a hillier sort of sprint weren't far off. Mark Cavendish won the year before but the last two years routes were quite sprinter-friendly. Prior to that, Joaquim Rodriguez won in 2012 and Michele Scarponi in 2011,  with lots of climbers in the top 10.

So where does this route sit in terms of being climber or sprinter friendly? Well to me it looks like it leans towards the sprinters for sure but possibly more towards the punchy, sprinters-who-can-climb-a-bit. 

The odds have André Greipel as the 9/2 favourite for the race but it's all very tight at the top of the betting with Michael Matthews just behind him around 5/1, Modolo around 6/1 and Nizzolo around 7/1 with JJ Lobato and Viviani around 8/1!

The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage - the sprint stages offer more points in a bid to try to ensure the sprinters jersey is won by a sprinter!

For Category A+B stages (Stages 2, 3, 4, 7, 10, 13, 17, 21) offer points for the first 20 riders in the following allocation: 50, 40, 34, 28, 25, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the Intermediate Sprints (marked TV on the route maps) there are points for the first 10: 20, 16, 12, 9, 7, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1 - with 20 points up for grabs for each TV they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey.

For Category C stages: (Stages 5, 6, 9, 11) there are points for the first 15: 25, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first five: 10, 6, 3, 2, 1

Category D + E stages: (Stages 1, 8, 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20) offer points for the first 10: 15, 12, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first three: 8, 4, 1

The Contenders 

André Greipel is probably the best out-and-out sprinter in the race, and comes here with a decent sprint train to help him out too. Greipel has always been a very strong-willed and focused rider and you would think he should be right up there in all the flat sprints. I say has always been, but in recent years we have seen him back out of the really dangerous sprints and sometimes coast in just behind the sprinters. He seems to have lost his bottle a little bit! You'd think that he should really fancy stages 2, 10, 13, 17 and 21 and could get big points on them, but something else you need to keep in mind with AG is that he may not even finish the race. He is scheduled to ride the TDF as well and with a very hard week in the final week, it may be that he calls it quits and takes a break. 

I think there are just too many doubts about him to justify picking him, although if he is on form and gets his bottle back he could well rack up 3 or 4 wins. I think though that with the possible chaos and hustle and bustle of the opening sprint stage, where every Italian is going to be fighting tooth and nail for the win, he may back out of it and could immediately start on the back foot for this competition. 

The course looks tailor-made for Michael Matthews, with a number of tough sprint finishes and the likelihood that he will be still going for stages 17 and 21 when others may have already packed their bags. He could start with a placing in the first sprint, then stages 3, 4, 6, 7 and 9 could well see him take and keep the points jersey all the way to the first rest day. He may even have the race leader's jersey for a number of days too, depending on how the TTT and the first few stages go. 

Stage 11, 12, 14 and 17 could see him rack up a load more points and there is also the likelihood that on some of the harder mountain stages he goes off in the early breaks to try to hoover up early intermediate points before easing back and rolling in way down in the autobus. The OGE team looks very strong and he'll have the perfect wing-man Simon Gerrans to help him, either to lead him out on the uphill finishes or to attack late on to make the other teams chase. With Simon Clarke, Michael Hepburn and Pieter Weening also, I think the team should focus completely around Matthews and get him a number of stage wins, the Maglia Rosa for a few days and the Red Points Jersey at the end of the race. Recommendation: 1.5pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 5/1 with various.

Giacomo Nizzolo finished 2nd to Bouhanni last year, thanks to four 2nd places, a 3rd, a 5th and a 9th place and snaffling some intermediate points along the way. Outside of those top 10s he was mostly finishing in place 130th or worse, so it goes to show that you don't actually have to win any stages to do well, just be consistent and pick up as many points when the chances are there. 

He started with a great 3rd place behind Kittel and Bouhanni in Belfast, showing he can mix it on the flat as well as the uphill sprints. He followed that with an excellent 2nd place on the slippy stage in to Bari, coming from a mile back but failing to reel back Bouhanni. This year he should have a good chance of going well again,  it should be a course that suits him too, but I don't think he's going as well this year as he was at this time last year. I think he'll be battling Matthews for a number of the stages and I believe Matthews should have the beating of him in most of them. 

He's too short I think at just 9/2 with some, but the 13/2 is just about tempting for an each-way bet, I think he could come in the top 3 again this year.

Another Italian who will be looking to impress on home roads will be Lampre-Merida's Sacha Modolo. After a quietish start to the season he had a really poor Tirreno-Adriatico, where the best he could muster was a 114th place finish on stage 6! He also DNFed the E3, Gent-W and Flanders, but in between managed a 3rd a 5th and a 9th in the 3 days of DePanne, albeit against some average sprinters beyond Kristoff and Greipel. He turned it on though in the Tour of Turkey, showing that his form is coming good at just the right time. With a 4th and a 2nd in the first two stages won by Cavendish, he got a win from a break of 10 on stage 5. This was still only good enough for 4th in the points competition there, and that's probably down to a lack of consistency which could cost him here. Watch out for him though as he is sure to be involved and he could well take a stage win. At just 6/1 I'm not interested. 

Another rider around the 6/1 mark is Elia Viviani, although he is available at 9/1 too. the Italian on the Sky Team should be one of the fastest sprinters in the race but I think he could find himself riding solo in the final stages of races as the team is built around trying to help RP to the overall victory. He does have Bernie Eisel though who should be able to help him. The problem is Viviani just falls to pieces on any sort of uphill sections of road and there are plenty of uphill sections of road in this race. I don't think he'll be consistent enough to win the jersey, although he could well take one of the flatter sprint stages. Stage 13 in particular will be one I'll be looking to back him in, it starts in Montecchio Magiore, which is just 40kms from where Viviani is from in Isola della Scala. 

Luca Mezgec could go alright but he hasn't been himself to me yet this year, I've opposed him a number of times this year. He will be the Giant-Alpecin main man in this race and with Kittel still not fit enough to race Mezgec will look for all opportunities to shine in his absence. I think he will be top 10 on a number of stages but he will struggle to podium in a lot of them though I feel. JJ Lobato had a great February but has been relatively quiet since then, he's not finished a race since the 29th March. It's a Movistar team with no clear leader like Quintana so it could be a bit of a free-for-all for the with attacks and so on and as a result he may not get as much support or clear opportunities to score enough points to win this jersey.

I think this will be a battle between Matthews and Nizzolo with Greipel and maybe Modolo fighting it out for the 3rd spot. Matthews is my main bet but Nizzolo could be worth a small each-way bet as insurance. In the time I was writing this Nizzolo has been cut to 11/2 with Boyles, so clearly someone else thought the same way and hit the price. 11/2 is still the best price though. 

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Matthews at 5/1 with various (take the 11/2 with Bet365 now)

0.5pts each-way on Nizzolo at 11/2 with Boylesports

King of the Mountains Betting Preview

The Maglia Azzura competition is a really hard one to call no matter what the race. It's very hard to know beforehand who is going to be focusing on the competition and it often only becomes clear on the first mountainous day when someone goes off in a break and tries to win every point on the day.. And that early raider can often then go on to try to just pick up points all through the race to win the jersey. This Giro could be different though with the backloading of a lot of mountain points in the final week of racing.

Like with the Points Jersey, the points are awarded in a scale depending on the toughness of the climb as follows:

The Cima Coppi - this is a special award for the highest point in the Giro every year, this year it is on stage 20 on the Colle de Finestre, where the first 90 win the following points: 40,28,21,15, 10,7,4,2,1. With this offering such a large amount of points on the last day of climbing it could swing it one way or another. 

12 1st Cat climbs award points as follows: 32, 20, 14, 10, 7, 4, 2, 1

8 2nd Cat climbs award points as follows: 14, 9, 5, 3, 2, 1

4 3rd Cat climbs award 7, 4, 2, 1

15 4th Cat climbs award 3, 2, 1

Last year's jersey was won by Julian Arredondo who took up the challenge early on and continued to hunt points throughout the race with regular attacks, getting in to key breaks and so on. Dario Cataldo finished 2nd, with Quintana in 3rd, thanks to his consistency on the mountain stages. In 2013 Pirazzi won it from Nibali and Visconti, in 2012 Pirazzi finished 2nd to Matteo Rabottini.

The bookies have made Stefano Pirazzi the 13/2 favourite for the race, he was 9/2 favourite to win it last year too after he had won it in 2013 and finished 2nd in 2012. He bombed last year though, only finishing 16th in the competition, instead it was 25/1 shot Arredondo who took the prize. It shows how unpredictable this competition can be from a betting point of view. 

I really can't see anything in Pirazzi's form to warrant him being the favourite, he won one race last year, a stage in the Giro and that wasn't even a mountain stage. He is yet to win this year with a 2nd place in the Giro dell'Appennino his best result. So I'm skipping over him.

2nd favourite is Alberto Contador, ranging between 6/1 and 9/1 and he is sure to be up there snaffling up lots of points in his attempt to win the overall. He should be well capable of a top 3 finish in the competition I think but may have to settle for 2nd or 3rd place if someone like Arredondo goes off on a point hunt on multiple stages. The 9/1 on him is tempting though, he could do a Quintana like last year. 

Richie Porte could be capable of winning a few stages on the climbs, but I think his sole focus will be on winning the GC, he's not going to be bothered about the KOM jersey.. that is, unless he falls out of contention for some reason and could then switch to chasing the mountains jersey in the final week as a consolation. I can't see it though so I'm leaving him at 20/1. Fabio Aru is around 14/1 and he could be anything in this race.. He could go stage hunting, he could be in the GC hunt, he might switch focus to the jersey late in the race if he blows his chances in the TT on stage 14. Or, he might suffer from the effects of losing 5kgs due to the stomach virus he had not so long ago and fade out the race.. 

I don't know what to make of his chances in this competition though, I might wait and see how he gets on in stages 5 and 8 to see how his climbing legs are before making a decision on him. 

Monsalve, Atapuma, Bongiorno and Pelizotti could all do well but one that I've been thinking about a bit is Movistar's Igor Anton. As I said in my main preview, Movistar will come here with a bit of an open book I think in terms of plans and targets. They won't have a clear leader to have to be working for unless Izagirre or someone else is going really well in the GC, so Anton could be up for going for the KOM jersey. A regular attacker, he warmed up for this win a win in the Vuelta Asturias, winning a stage and finishing 5th on another and taking 3rd in the KOM competition too, just last week. Just before that he went well in the Vuelta a Castilla Y Leon,  taking 3rd on the tough final stage behind Rolland and Intxausti and 3rd overall. He was 50/1 earlier in the week when I was looking at him but tonight he was just 33/1 with PP, but that is still worth a small bet I think, he is just 20/1 with William Hill. 

I'll add updates on my thoughts on this and other overall markets as the race goes on in the daily stage previews, but for now, I'm having a bet on Contador each-way as he should be consistent and near the front on many stages and a speculative punt on Igor Anton.

Edit: 12/5 - as per what I said in my preview for stage 4, I am starting to come around again to Richie Porte for the KOM - he is looking incredibly fit and lean and I've been told he will go very well in the mountains.. I have had 1pt each-way at 25/1.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Alberto Contador at 9/1 with PP

0.75pts each-way on Igor Anton at 33/1 with PP

1pt each-way on Richie Porte at 25/1 with Ladbrokes 

Young Riders Betting Preview

This is all down to Fabio Aru really isn't it.. He either wins this by a mile or something went seriously wrong for him. And his price of just 2/5 reflects this. No point in backing him at that price. Second favourite is Johan Esteban Chaves at 7/1 best price and the young Orica-Greenedge Colombian could go well in this year's race. He has shown his staying power and climbing abilities in some good performances in the Tour de Suisse last year (winning the stage to Verbier) and also winning a stage in the Tour of California. This year he has been building to the Giro with some solid rides in Catalunya and Pais Vasco but never really troubled the top 10. He should be the best climber on the OGE squad though and with the likes of Clarke, Weening and Bewley he should get some help to try to make him finish high up in the Young Riders competition. He's not a lot of value though at just 7/1.

There are lots of riders like Ruben Fernandez, Kenny Ellisonde and Seb Henao who could go well, but one I like the look of at 12/1 is Davide Formolo. The 22 yr-old Italian with the Cannondale-Garmin squad has been riding pretty solidly this year, finishing in the top 35 in LBL and FW and finishing 14th overall in the Criterium International. 4th in the Tour of Turkey, 7th in the Tour de Suisse and 2nd in the Italian road race championships last year behind Nibali, he is a rising star that could well finish the highest in the GC for Gardale. 6th in the GC in the 2013 Tour de l'Avenir, he isn't the best time triallist in the young riders category, but he did manage an impressive 14th in the TT in the Tour de Suisse last year. If Hesjedal is out of the GC running in the last week, which I expect him to be, look for him to be babysitting Formolo and dragging him to a top placing in the White Jersey competition.

Recommendation:

1pt each-way on Davide Formolo at 12/1 with Ladbrokes

Team Classification 

For the team classification you need to have three strong riders on mountain stages as the times of the first three riders home from each team are what counts towards the Team Classification. The TT could also have a bearing as some riders could lose minutes in the TT, it could pay to have three riders on your team who are decent time triallists too. It is ridiculously close at the top of the betting with the bookies seemingly unable to split Astana, Sky, Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo, who are all around 3/1.

With Aru, Scarponi, Landa, Cataldo and LL Sanchez, it's easy to see why Astana have been installed the 10/3 favourites (as short as 5/2). Aru should be chasing a top five placing and will be pretty high up on most stages you'd imagine. Scarponi is getting on in years but he still will manage to grind it out for Aru for long parts of the day and these not-so-steep gradients will suit him more. Mikel Landa could be a surprise package in this race and Sanchez has been riding well lately, we could see him on some breaks that might make it, thus helping the teams total times. 

Tinkoff-Saxo are similar in that they will have Contador, Kreuziger, Basso, Rogers and Paulinho capable of highish placings on the mountain stages. They could go very well in this race, Contador should be top 2 or 3 and Kreuziger and Basso are capable of top 15 placings. It could all depend on the TT.. 

Team Sky could have the upper hand in the TT though with Porte, Konig and Kiryienka capable of top 15 placings on the TT and could be the best trio on that stage. Porte should be challenging for the GC though and Konig won't be far behind. With Nieve, Kiryienka and Henao capable of good rides in the hills, I think Sky might be just starting to edge it for me. They are 4/1 on Betfair, I'm having a point on that. 

Movistar, as I've mentioned a few times already, could be a real surprise package in this race, attacking, multiple times and trying to shake things up. They have a squad of very capable climbers and a few that are pretty decent against the clock so they could be a dark horse for this prize too. The only problem might be the lack of focus in trying to protect a leader like Quintana. If they start attacking and going in the long breaks etc then some of them could finish well down. Not tempting enough for me at 3/1 general. 

AG2R won this competition last year by over 19mins from Omega Pharma QS and Tinkoff, with Pozzo, Vuillermoz and Dupont in the top 16. Dupont is back this year and could well fly under the radar, but there is no vuillermoz. Instead they have Nocentini, who is capable of some decent stage placings and Carlos Betancur who could be anything really.. he says he is fit and ready, we'll know come next Wednesday. They don't offer great value at 12/1 though considering how hard it will be to break in to these top four above. 

And what about Katusha at a big looking 20/1 with Ladbrokes? Well, with Katusha anything could happen and we could see Zakarin, Vorobyev, Belkov and Trofimov all flying up the climbs. I think though we won't and they won't trouble the podium. This is a really hard one to call but I'll dip my toe in the water with the Sky boys, I think they will have a good race. 

Recommendation:

2pts win on Team Sky at 4/1 with Boylesports.