Details

Published on Monday, 30 April 2018 21:13

Giro d'Italia Contenders

Dumoulin at the double?

Tom Dumoulin faces a big challenge this year to defend his Giro d'Italia title, with Chris Froome returning to Italy for the first time since 2010, a year he was thrown out of the race on stage 19 for holding on to a motorcycle.. He must have dropped his inhaler or something.. 

Nairo Quintana looked a solid favourite last year at 11/10, he was even odds-on in places.. but he could only finish 2nd to 14/1 shot Tom Dumoulin who rode a fantastic race from start to finish, dominating the TTs and riding superbly in the mountains. Vincenzo Nibali was an 11/2 shot and he scraped in to 3rd for his each-way backers. Thibaut Pinot just missed out on a podium spot, finishing in 4th, 37" off the podium. Zakarin, Pozzovivo, Mollema, Jungels, Yates and Formolo made up the rest of the top 10. 

It's been a bizarre market for this race for months with the will-he/won't he surrounding Chris Froome's participation in the race, with the market for a lot of the year being a 'Without Froome' making it a bit of a farcical market. And it could turn out to be a bit of a joke result to have bet on, if Froome wins, and your rider at big odds e/w finishes 4th.. He could eventually be awarded 3rd place if the race is ever taken off Froome, but you won't get paid out.. But anyway, for the purposes of the betting for now, we have to consider him a contender, as the bookies will pay out on the final result, not an amended one. 

There's not a lot of love between Dumoulin and Froome, Dumoulin seems to not like Froome very much. Their rivalry goes back quite a few years, they did battle in the 2015 Vuelta, Dumoulin winning a great duel on the mountain top finish at Cumbre del Sol, retaking Froome in the last 500m, a race Froome crashed out of later on and Dumoulin lost to Aru at the death. And in the 2016 TDF they also did battle, Dumoulin crushing Froome in the 37km TT by over a minute, but Froome got revenge in the 17km TT later in the race, the day before Dumoulin abandoned. 

And his dislike for Froome was taken up a notch this February when he expressed his annoyance at the situation, voicing an opinion that seemed to be almost the voice of the peloton.. 

"I don't think a lot of riders have a different opinion: I think all the riders agree that it's not good for cycling that this case is lingering on and there's no solution yet. That's the thing and I hope justice prevails, whatever that justice may be, whether it's in favour of Chris or otherwise. I just hope they find a solution quickly. It would be very, very bad if he starts the Giro without still knowing something and they maybe have to say after the Giro or the Tour that he's suspended. That would be the worst scenario ever, so I hope they find the solution,"

He followed that up with more comments declared that Froome should not be riding at Tirreno-Adriatico while the case rumbled on.. "He's not breaking any rules. Can he be here? Yes. Is it good for cycling? No. Does anyone benefit from it? No. It's his right and let's say he is innocent, then I can understand that he's here. We as a team and I have a different opinion about it; I would not be allowed to race as we're part of the MPCC. I would probably also not want to, but Sky has a different approach to it. That's their right"

So, game on then! I'm finding it really hard to get excited about the race though this year, what with the bullshit decision to take it to Israel in spite of the dangers and Froome riding for Sky in spite of his ongoing Salbutamol case. And also, there's the lack of depth here with regards to competition - no Quintana, no Nibali, no Valverde, no Bardet, no Landa, no Dan Martin, Contador has retired etc. But I'm sure once we get in to the hills on the mainland things will start to get a little more exciting, and who knows, if Froome runs out of puff, or an incident or accident takes him out, then we could have a proper race on our hands.  

Contenders for Pink

Chris Froome – 13/8 favourite (Ladbrokes)

Reportedly being paid €1.4m to take part this year, whatever happens with Froome, should he win, it will be a tainted victory and only the skybots will really celebrate the win. But feelings about whether he should be here and whether he will keep the race in the future aside, the bookies pay out on who will be in pink at the end of stage 21 on the 27th May. So we have to assess his chances regardless of what is going on.

It's not been a great year for Froome, what with all the distractions of the Salbutamol case, he's not won a race yet this year. But then again, you look at last year and he was winless until the 27th August when he won a stage in the Vuelta, and that included winning the Tour de France without winning a stage. He was only 4th in the Dauphiné, a similar result to what he got in the Tour of the Alps. But it's all about the big Tours for Froome, he knows how to prepare and deliver in the big ones. 

He hasn't been impressive to me so far, but that's typical with Froome too, you can't read him really from prep races. But what a team that they have brought here to support him - Kenny Ellisonde was excellent in the ToTA and got the call ahead of Philip Deignan, and he's joined by David De La Cruz, Sergio Henao, Vasil Kiryienka, Christian Knees, Woet Poels and Salvatore Puccio. You just know that they are going to grind the hell out of this race on every mountain with DLC, Kiryienka, Knees, Poels and Puccio burning themselves out one by one until there's only probably Ellissonde and Froome left. 

Where will he make the difference? Well I'm not sure he'll make much ground on any of his rivals really in the opening TT, maybe less than 30" to most of them. He may even lose time to Dumoulin. It may take until Stage 8 before he can try to take time on the summit finish to Montevergine, but it's a steady climb so maybe the others can just stay with him. The next day might be one that Sky try to burn everyone off, with the long 50km climb to Gran Sasso, the last 4kms being particularly hard, we could see a Froome attack. If you take the Pink Jersey on this stage you will probably hold on to it until stage 14 to Zoncolan.

And that stage to Zoncolan could well be one of the most significant of the whole race, it's a brute of a climb, and if Froome isn't at his absolute best on these gradients, there might be some who could ride away from him. The TT on stage 16 could well be the most important one though for Froome's chances, if he's leading, he could put a nice buffer to some of his rivals, if he's lagging he can make up valuable time ahead of the crucial finale. 

They might all stay together on the steady climb to Pratanevoso on stage 18, but stage 19 could be all-out war if it's all to play for and we could see the wheels come off the Sky express this late in the race if riders start attacking early on the Finestre, Froome might be isolated coming to the last climb. And by stage 20, it could be that if he's leading we see him put the icing on the cake with a stage win, but also, if he's leading then all he needs to do is mark.. 

You'd have to think that Froome, with that team is going to be very hard to displace. He'll be dragged up every climb by four or five guys and if he has the legs, he can spin away. If not, he won't lose much time on most stages. Then he can go for it in the TT or in the last three mountain stages. His only big danger in the TTs will be Dumoulin, can he make up time on Dumoulin on the mountain stages? Yes on some, maybe he'll lose some on others..  

Should he win this year, he'll be the first rider since Alberto Contador to hold all three Grand Tours.

Tom Dumoulin – 2/1

Tom Dumoulin has had a pretty painful build-up to this Giro, his season so far has been beset by mishaps and misfortune, and he's cut a frustrated figure at times. After apparently over-training in the winter, he has raced less than 2,000kms this season, in just 12 race days, a pitifullly small amount of racing. That is only 400kms less than Froome and 200kms less than Pinot to be fair, but is 1231kms less than Aru and 1,560kms less than M A Lopez. 

But his build up last year was identical to this year with Abu Dhabi, Strade Bianche, Tirreno, MSR and LBL. The only difference was that he only got as far as stage 4 of Tirreno this year, crashing out. He had gone in to the race suffering from a cold, but was doing ok until he crashed. He suffered bruises to his chest and arms but no hospital treatment was needed. So we didn't get to see him really test his legs on the mountains and we didn't get to see him in the TT won by Dennis. 

Dumoulin was incredible last year, his power in the mountains caught a lot of people by surprise, me included, the way he rode on Blockhaus to take 3rd was superb, his win on Oropa was simply sensational. And the way he rode after the rest of the peloton after his toilet stop on stage 16 was fantastic too, to limit his losses to just 2'18". He crushed them all in the TT and will be looking to do something similar this year. Some of the climbs this year are similar to Blockhaus and Oropa, he'll be able to grind his way up with the rest of them. 

Zoncolan is going to be hard for him, he might lose some time there to the mountain goats, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him possibly take a stage to make time back as well. Froome hasn't really taken major time off any rivals in the mountains of the TDF since 2015, and with Dumoulin confident of taking time off him in both time trials, it really could be game on between the two. 

15th in LBL is his best result this season, and although that's not very impressive, he was very prominent in the race and looked to be climbing well. There are 25kms less TTing this year than last, which is slightly against him, but if he can avoid crashes and mishaps again, stay solid on the steady climbs and not lose too much time to the goats on Zoncolan, then he has a big chance again.

But 2/1? With such a weak team with him? He has shown in the past that he can win this, in spite of his poor team, Sam Oomen is probably the only one who will be with him late on the climbs. It might be worth waiting until stage 6 to think about backing him, if he lost any time in the five stages before you might get a better price, if not, we'll have a better idea of what sort of legs he has ahead of Etna, and he'll probably be the same price still.

Thibaut Pinot – 6/1

Thibaut Pinot has probably shown some of the best form so far this year, with a great win in the ToTA a few weeks back, finishing 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 6th on the five stages, winning the sprint behind Ben O'Connor on stage 3. And that could be something that can really help him in this race - he has a good sprint on him at the end of a tough mountain stage, he could take a stage or two and the bonus seconds that come with them. 

He will need all the bonus seconds he can get though, as he will probably lose time to both Dumoulin and Froome in the TTs. That is, unless he has re-found his TT'ing ability that he found in 2016 but lost in 2017! He hasn't had to do a TT so far this year, so we don't know the answer to that, but the last time he did a TT, in the TDF last year, he lost 38" to Froome over 14kms, finishing in 60th. He'll need to do a lot better than that in this Giro's two TT's or he could find himself two minutes down over the two of them. 

He hasn't got a great team with him here either, they were nowhere to be seen in the ToTA, but it's a slightly stronger squad he has here with him this time - Sebastien Reichenbach will be a big asset in the mountains as he was in the ToTA, Georg Preidler, Steve Morabito and Anthony Roux will be a help too for as long as they can manage. But he has shown in the past that he doesn't need a strong team around him and he came pretty close last year to pulling off a podium.. Can he go one step better this year? I think he has a strong chance. He's climbing very well, he can sprint to stage bonus seconds and he might, just might, do as well as some of the lesser TTers in the top 10. 

There used to be worries about his descending skills, but that didn't look in evidence to me in the ToTA, and with eight summit finishes he will be pleased that there are not that many big descents towards the end of stages that he could lose time on.  6/1 doesn't offer a great deal of value if he's going to be battling for 3rd place, but I think he's one to watch in the opening TT and maybe think about backing him after it, he'll have lost time to Froome and Dumoulin and we might get 8/1 or so on him. 

Miguel Angel Lopez – 6/1

Now this is a guy who could put the cat amongst the pigeons with his wild, attacking style, the young Colombian has been great to watch in the last two years or so. Winner of the Tour de Suisse in 2016, winner of two stages in the Vuelta and 8th in the GC last year in his first Grand Tour, the boy is super fast when it goes uphill, and is not afraid to attack the old guard of the peloton. 

And already this year he won on Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman and finished 2nd on the GC to his team-mate Alexey Lutsenko, finished 2nd to Valverde on Jabel Hafeet and 3rd overall in Abu Dhabi and 16th in Tirreno. He took another stage win and 3rd overall in the TotA just a few weeks ago. An impressive start to the year, probably the most impressive set of results of any of the GC contenders here. But in doing all that he has raced 3,556kms in 25 days, almost double what Froome has done. Will that take its toll on a young, 24 year-old guy, or does it just mean he is primed and in top shape? 

What we do know as well though is that he is in an incredibly strong Astana team who are winning all around them this year so far. They have 14 wins so far this season with 9 different riders, they seem to be making a habit of just riding away from everyone whenever they feel like it, maybe they are still on some of the borderline substances that Liuwe Westra has been talking about this week. From that point of view, you almost have to back them to do something in this race, there are multiple stage win possibilities in the team.

He has Lutsenko who won the Tour of Oman ahead of him, Luis Leon Sanchez who has two wins and five 2nd places this year, Jan Hirt who rode well to finish 10th in the ToTA, Andrey Zeits who was 11th in the ToTA, Pelle Bilbao who has finished 7th in Valenciana, 8th in Itzulia and 14th in the ToTA (and won a stage) Tanel Kangert and Davide Vilella.. A super-strong squad that might actually rival Sky in this race, how many times this year have we seen multiplle Astana jerseys in the latter parts of a race somewhere, and very few Sky jerseys. 

He is going to do something in this race, whether that's a stage win or two or score a high GC place, but I think in winning a stage or two he'll work himself in to a high GC place. And how will he cope with the TTs? Well, he's a bit hit and miss, mostly miss..  In the 10km flat TT in Tirreno earlier this year, he finished down in 75th place, 1'05" behind Dennis.. and 45" behind an out-of-shape Froome. In the 12.6km TT in Abu Dhabi he finished in 28th, 49" behind Dennis and Dumoulin (if you take his mechanical out of it). But he has finished 2nd in the hilly TT in the Tour de Suisse in 2016, beating Cancellara.

It could well be his achilles heel though in this race, he may make up 20 or 30 seconds here and there on the mountains, but he could lose more than two minutes over the two TTs..  But dancing away on some mountain stages and taking the bonus seconds on offer too might well be enough to get him a podium place. 

Fabio Aru – 8/1

Third in the Giro in 2014, 2nd in 2015, winner of the Vuelta in 2015, Aru looked like a star on the rise three years ago.. he has continued to perform really well of course, but there has not been any big wins to talk of since then really, ever since he switched his focus to the Tour de France. Ok, he won the stage to La Planche des Belles Filles with a well-timed attack in the TDF last year, and briefly took the lead for two days after stage 12, but he never really looked like he was going to trouble Froome, Uran or Bardet and eventually finished 5th in the GC. 

And in the Vuelta he just looked tired.. he took 6th place on the 3rd stage to Andorra, but after that he never came close. He struggled on all the mountain stages to stay with the main protagonists, often struggling early but digging in to limit his losses to 30" here, a minute there.. he finished 13th overall in the end, but was nearly 22 minutes behind Chris Froome.. A sad state of affairs.. he did do better towards the end of the season though with 3rd in Milano-Torino and 7th in Lombardia. 

And this season.. what has he shown? Well, not a lot - 5th place on stage 4 of the ToTA was his best result this season, and he finished 6th overall, but he was 1'19" behind Pinot. Not bad, but that's quite a gap between two guys who are going to be fighting it out here too. But that was coming back after abandoning in Catalunya three weeks before, he had crashed and badly bruised his leg on stage 1 and decided he was in too much pain to continue, the snowy weather helped him make his mind up to stop it seems. 

Before that he was a safe 12th in Tirreno, but nearly 90" ahead of M A Lopez, and 13th in Abu Dhabi but 1'13" behind Lopez.. He hasn't really impressed last year, he hasn't really impressed this year, and he doesn't really have a very strong team with him here to drag him up the mountains when he inevitably gets dropped.. Winner Anacona will be his no.1 assistant probably, but Jan Polanc and Diego Ulissi will be busy too I'd think. I think 5th or 6th for Aru, so no bet for me. 

Domenico Pozzovivo - 25/1

Every year it looks like Pozzovivo might finally make a breakthrough. But every year, he doesn't. He is taking on his 11th Giro this year, an impressive number of starts, but he is 35 years old after all this year. And in those 10 starts to date he has finished in the top 10 five times, finishing 6th last year and 5th in 2014. Can this year be the year that he could finally move on to a podium spot in his beloved Giro?

Well, if Froome wasn't there, I'd have said there was a chance based on his performance in the ToTA. He climbed really well, he covered attacks, he looked pretty comfortable at all times and finished with results of 6, 5, 6, 3, 9 on the five stages, to take 2nd overall, just 15" behind Pinot, on the same time as Lopez and 1" ahead of Froome. He also finished 14th in Tirreno, 15th in Abu Dhabi and 14th in the TDU, he's pretty consistent if not spectacular. It's if Froome turns up here in top shape, and turns on the spin cycle to 1200 on some of the climbs, he may well ride away from him, or crack him and he could lose more time than he really should.

You'd think he can go with the sort of moves the likes of Pinot, Aru and Dumoulin can try though, maybe even Lopez when he goes full gas, but also, he's small and light enough (53kgs, 6kgs lighter than Lopez, that's the equivalent of another bike's weight almost!) to follow on the really steep climbs like Zoncolan, when the likes of Dumoulin and Pinot may flounder a little. 

He has an ok team here with him, Kanstantsin Siutsou rode very well in the mountains of Croatia to take the GC two weeks ago and Mohoric, Visconti and Boaro can also be of assistance for most of the tougher stages, that is, if they are not up the road on the attack. 

He's going to struggle in the TTs, that's a given, like Lopez he could lose two mins or more to the top guys. And it's also been 6 years since he last won a stage in the Giro, when he won solo to Lago Laceno - will he be able to ride away and take a stage win, a time gap and the bonus seconds to make up for what he'll lose on the TTs? It's hard to imagine he will, but if he can stay with Lopez one day, Froome another, Pinot another etc he can chip away at some of the others around him.. But it may not be enough to lift him on to the podium I fear. 

Esteban Chaves - 25/1 

What do we make of Chaves's chances in this year's Giro? It's been a very strange season to date for Esteban, winning the Herald Sun Tour early in the year, but that was mostly down to him just riding away from a pretty average bunch in the only tough uphill stage. He followed that finishing over the time limit in the final stage of Paris-Nice (but he had worked his ass off for Simon Yates who finished 2nd on the GC, just 4" behind Soler).

And then in Catalunya he abandoned on the final day too, after crashing early on the rain-soaked course, but during that race he had ruled himself out of the GC battle early on, declaring that he was there for the two Yates brothers. Since then he has gone back to Colombia for some altitude training, and Matty White, the MS DS says that he is 'ready', but of course he's going to say that!

Last season was a bit of a disaster for Chaves, after a bright start with 2nd in the TDU, his attempt at the TDF was derailed by a knee injury which kept him out of racing from February until June, plus, the death of a close friend hit him really hard. He struggled from the TT on day one (116th, a minute slower than Froome over 14kms) and it never really got better. He started the Vuelta a little better, and at one point, after finishing 2nd to Froome on stage 9 to Cumbre Del Sol he was 2nd in the GC.. But he ran out of gas later in the race and slipped down to 11th by the end. 

Two years ago Chaves had a much better season, finishing 2nd in the Giro, losing to Nibali by 51" - but he had lost 1'35" to Nibali in the second of the three TTs in the race.. He briefly held the lead after Kruijswijk dive in to the snow wall, but Nibali was just too good for him over the closing two stages. He also followed that with 3rd place in the Vuelta, but was nearly 3 mins behind Froome in 2nd. He also won Giro Dell'Emilia and Lombardia later that year. 

His problem, as evidenced above, has always been his TT'ing, he has never been very good at them, unless they were of the uphill variety, which they are not here this year. Apparently though he has been in the wind tunnel over the winter and has made some good progressed, as might be evident by his 10th place in the Paris-Nice TT over a flat 18kms, but that was far from a stellar TT lineup that was there, Woet Poels won from Marc Soler. His climbing will have to have improved a lot while in Colombia and his TT'ing will really have had to take a massive step up here though to be competing with the top 3 or 4 guys in the betting, and I'm not sure it has. 

Simon Yates - 40/1

Yates might actually be a better option for Mitchelton-Scott, he was very good in Paris-Nice to take a stage win and 2nd overall in the GC (was leading going in to the final stage before Soler took the race by the balls), and also a stage win and 4th overall in Catalunya, behind Valverde, Quintana and Latour. He also took a fine 2nd on the uphill finish to stage 3, leading home the peloton 20" behind De Gendt. 

Yates will go fine on most of the climbs, he may even do better than a lot of others on the punchy finishes like on stages 8, 11, 15 and 19, he could take a stage win and 20" or so, plus time bonuses. He may also get himself in to some key breaks along the way or stay with the likes of Lopez on the steep ones, but he also can't TT and will lose minutes to Froomoulin over the two TTs. 7th in the TDF last year was a big result for him, but he disappointed in the Vuelta, finishing 44th, but he was working for Chaves.

6th in the Vuelta in 2016, he is capable of a top ten here, I guess it all comes down to who's going to be working for who and who gets team leader rights, he could finish 6th or 26th.. We might get a better idea after Etna, might be worth waiting until after then, let's hope he doesn't ride away from them and take 30" and the pink jersey!

Other than Yates and Chaves, it's not a bad team they have here, Romain Kreuziger looks to be in great form and could be a wild outsider at 125/1 for a podium spot, he has finished 5th in the Giro in 2011 and has finished in the top 10 of the TDF four times, including 5th in 2014. He's not a great TTer, but he's not the worst either, and in a possibly topsy-turvey and chaotic Giro, we could see the old head of Krueziger pop up in the right places.. 

Outsiders

George Bennett - 66/1

The LottoNL Kiwi has been in good form so far this year, finishing 2nd in two stages of the ToTA and taking 5th overall, he would have been a lot closer had he not lost 1'09" on the 2nd stage when he was burnt off with 3kms to go by the relentless pace of the Sky train and Ellissonde in particular. He got stronger as the race went on though and he was fighting for stage victories towards the end. 

He also has taken 6th in Catalunya, 9th in Tirreno and 11th in TDU this year, he's a pretty solid top ten kind of guy.. He last did the Giro when he was just 23 in 2013 and didn't have a very good time of it, finishing 121st, but he was sitting in 12th place in the TDF last year when he abandoned after stage 16 with illness, and that was after recovering from a disastrous start in Dusseldorf when he was one of several LottoNL riders who crashed in the opening TT.

The illness he suffered from in the TDF also affected him in the Vuelta, where he also abandoned on stage 12, saying that he had absolutely nothing left to give, he had no energy and was just watching the race go away from him. He also was very lucky to come out relatively unscathed in a crash just before the ToTA when he was out doing a recon ride of the TT of the Giro, a car turned across him and he hit the side and went flying over the car, ripping off the roof-rack with his knees.. he was left battered and bruised so maybe it was no wonder he couldn't stay with the pace on stage 2.. 

If he has recovered fully and manages to avoid any further illnesses then he could be a dark horse here too.. He can climb well, he is punchy in a sharp finish and he's not afraid to attack when others stall and look around. He lost 55" to Dennis though in the TT in Tirreno, he's not the greatest against the clock, and like a lot of the guys mentioned above, that could be what separates him from the top 3 and the rest of the top 10 places. 

Rohan Dennis - 80/1

I have been very impressed by Dennis of late, he looked superb in Romandie, despite not being a noted hill TT rider he blasted up the course and finished 7th, beating the likes of Dan Martin and Ion Izagirre. And then the next day, when he normally would have been sliding down the hill he raced after the leaders on the Cat 1 Les Collines climb and only barely failed to make the junction with the likes of Porte and Bernal. He did finish 6th on the stage, leading home a little group with Ion and Latour to secure 7th on the GC. 

He was odds-on favourite to win the prologue in Romandie but was beaten early on by his young Swiss team-mate Bohli, and in the end he finished 4th with Matthews and Roglic also beating him. But there was only 1" in it, and that wasn't really a TT for Dennis in hindsight, it was a crazy parcours. Earlier this year he blitzed the field in the Abu Dhabi TT and took the lead, but slipped back to 9th overall after the Green Mountain stage. He also blitzed the Tirreno TT, it looked like it was his only target in that race besides getting some good training in, and of course he won the Aussie TT title earlier this year also again. 

He only got as far as stage 4 in the Giro last year and stage 15 in the Vuelta, dramatically withdrawing on the day of the ITT, when he was the odds-on favourite. In 2016 he also failed to finish the TDF, in fact he hasn't finished a GT since 2015 when he finished 101st.. but he did win the ITT in Utrecht and the TTT, so not a bad race for him at all.

In the absence of Porte or Van Garderen he is the team-leader elect here and hopefully will ride for GC. He will struggle on some of the really tough mountain stages, but with Roche, Frankiny, De Marchi, Roelandts, Ventoso and Vliegen here with him they might just be able to drag him close on most stages.. And he will blitz the two TTs I think, although Dumoulin and Froome will run him close, but that might be enough to pull him minutes away from some of the others who will be fighting it out for the top 6 places. At 80/1 he might give us some fun for our money. 

Michael Woods - 80/1

Runner turned cyclist, Michael Woods has come to this game late.. I've been harping on about him for a few years now, but that's only because my sources in Cannondale have been harping on about how super strong he is to me for years! He has all too often clearly displayed the hall-marks of a neo-pro, despite being 31 years old this year, making mistakes in timing and positioning, throwing away good opportunities. 

But he does seem to be maturing and developing, his ride in LBL this year was pretty flawless, he looked strong all race, he stayed near the front for the important moments and he didn't waste his energy on a fruitless move until just the right moment.. and it was quite a move he made, attacking with Bardet on the final hill to Ans, and outsprinting Bardet for 2nd place. The rest of his season doesn't really say much about his chances here, but he does look like he is peaking for this.

And you only have to look at his TDF last year to see how he can cope in a Grand Tour - after Cannondale did their usual shit TT, losing 37" to Froome, he very quickly started to make up the lost time, moving in to 12th after just stage 3, 10th after stage 5 and never fell out of the top 10 with some seriously consistent riding. He eventually finished 7th, and 9th in the point competition after nine top 15 placings, including 3rd on Cumbre Del Sol, just 5" behind Froome. 

EF Cannondale have an ok team here with him, Joe Dombrowski, Hugh Carthy, Nathan Brown and Brendan Canty will give him good support in the hills and Mitch Docker and Tom Van Asbroeck will look after him on the flatter stages. His time-trialling sucks, the bike doesn't help, but not much more than the time trialling of a lot of the top 10 hopefuls here. I think it might hinder him scoring a podium, but could be a good shout for a top 6 though with his climbing abilities. 

Others to consider - David De La Cruz, Jan Hirt, Louis Meintjes, Jack Haig, Mikel Nieve and Sam Oomen could also go well, but I think they will do well to get in the top 10. Tanel Kangert and Luis Leon Sanchez could also go well, simply because you can't ignore just how well Astana are going this year, they are sure to take a stage or more between them, and could well move up the GC in the process.... Movistar have no leader, and I don't think they have a rider for GC here either, I can't see Carlos Betancur coming close to the top 10 and I think it will be stage hunting and possibly KOM jersey chasing for them in this race as they go all in to try to win the TDF. 

So - decision time.. Well, this is a viciously difficult race to try to pick a winner from - you have the uncertainty about Froome's form and the effects the ongoing Salbutamol case will have on him and Sky; you have the disrupted season so far of Tom Dumoulin and lack of race days; you have the lack of really strong opposition after that, but plenty of guys who could surprise and be fighting it out for the win if the top two in the betting don't come with their A-game. 

You have the crazyness of a race start in Israel which could see some chaotic finishes and potentially crashes that could take some players out of the race before it even hits Sicily, let alone Italy. The opening TT is going to be important, but not decisive, the first mountain finish on Etna could well be a phoney war like last year again with all the protagonists watching each other (or it could blow up in a blaze of attacking by the likes of Lopez and Chaves!).

But the most important stage of the race could well come on stage 14 with the ascent to Zoncolan.. Some will see their hopes disappear on the brutal 20% slopes. The second TT will give the likes of Dumoulin and Dennis the chance to take back time on the pure climbers, but the climbers have the last laugh with the trilogy of mountain stages on 18-20. It might be that someone will have a lead they will just try to protect over those last key stages, but there are sure to be plenty of attacks from riders who are either looking to attack the leader, or to improve their top 10 positions. 

Look, Froome probably wins, almost based solely on the power of that team he has, his pedigree in Grand Tours and the two TTs, which will see him take minutes off a lot of his rivals. But I can't bring myself to back him, I think there is grounds for him failing here, the pressure might just get to him, and he hasn't impressed me at all this year so far. Can Dumoulin pick up the pieces then? Well, I'm not sure about him either! But of the two, I'd rather back him at 5/2 on Betfair as a trading bet, as I think he will do a good opening TT and should be solid on Etna, I don't think his price will get any bigger, it may even shorten early on in the race. 

I think Thibaut Pinot could have a big race and might be worth backing later in the race, maybe after Etna, but also, I think M A Lopez could be the one to watch and back after the opening TT, his price might go out a little and I'll post an update on my thoughts on that after the first 4 or 5 stages. Woods and Yates should be solid top 10 bets and Kreuziger and Dennis are my outsiders to give us a big price interest. 

Recommendation:

2pts win on Tom Dumoulin at 5/2 on Betfair as a trading bet

1pt each-way on M A Lopez at 6/1 with various

0.3pts e/w on Rohan Dennis at 80/1 with various

0.3pts e/w on Roman Kreuziger at 125/1 with various

Matchbets

To come