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Published on Saturday, 12 May 2018 22:04

Giro d'Italia St 9

Pesco Sanita - Gran Sasso 

Sunday 13th May, 225kms

This stage has a very similar profile to stage 9 of last year's race which finished with the sharp ascent to Blockhaus when Nairo Quintana rode away from Thibaut Pinot and Tom Dumoulin. 

It was 73kms shorter though, but did have a similar little lump in the middle and a steep ascent to the summit finish. It is 500m higher too though, it's like the Blokhaus stage finished at the 215km point of this stage and then they have to climb for a further 500m over another 10kms on the pull up to the finish at Gran Sasso d'Italia. The final climb to Gran Sasso is almost 45kms in total, split in to two 1sts Cat climbs, one after the other, separated by a short false flat of around 6kms. 

With two Cat 1s and a Cat 2 climb on the stage, it could be one that a KOM fancier will try his luck on and could build up a big lead if he takes max points on the day. But with this difficult finish the day before rest day, there could be lots of riders looking to make an impact on the stage, and the GC. The altitude of the finish is 2135, which is just 43m shy of the Cima Coppi of this year's race, which actually is located on the Finestre, which they pass on stage 19. That reaches a height of 2178m.

Stage 8 Review 

Well that was a disappointing break, not one of our candidates got in it.. I thought about Polanc and Mohoric, but didn't really think they'd get involved, the rest, would never have picked them, they were all 200 or 300/1 or bigger. After that it was just dull and boring.. The only interesting thing that happened in the first 100kms or so was when a marshall stood in the middle of the road on one bend, seemingly trying to warn them about a hole in the road and a Bora rider bounced off his chest. Luckily for all involved no one came down and they all rolled on. 

But then with about 25kms to go, it got a bit more interesting.. as the rain came down the race started to explode in to life.. Bouwman, Mohoric, Montaguti and Polanc eventually forged ahead, the peloton really upped the pace and suddenly with about 5kms to go it was 50/50 as to whether they would catch them or not. Bouwman attacked and got away and held a 20" lead with less than 3kms to go. With 2kms to go Geniez attacked for AG2R, but Richard Carapaz came flying up to him and went straight past him. Suddenly 150/1 shot Carapaz was flying home solo as the rest of the peloton scrapped it out for minor places. 

Pinot looked strong again, but was beaten in the sprint to the line by Davide Formolo, with Enrico Battaglin an unlucky 4th, he really is riding really well this week. Behind, Chris Froome came home with the lead group, but not after he had another scare with about 5kms to go when sliding out on a slippy corner and coming down hard on his right hip again. Gianluca Brambill was right there with 10kms to go, sitting in behind the GC men, giving us a chance of a surprise result, he finished 23rd in the end. 

The matchbet double won, the others lost, Ciccone was miles down and Schachmann rode a great finish in 12th. not sure that today's stage really told us anything more about the GC men, but it did show that Froome is extremely shaky and will be glad to get through tomorrow's stage with his main rivals I'd imagine. All the GC men finished pretty close together, but Pinot, Yates, Pozzo and Chaves were right at the front again. 

The Route

The stage is the second longest of the race at 225kms, and one of the toughest finishes of the race thrown in as well for good measure. They start in the tiny town of Pesco Sannita, which has a population of just 2,000 inhabitants, there probably more people working on the Giro than live in this town..

They head northwards across rolling terrain for 83kms and they hit an uncategorised climb which averages 4.4% for 8.2kms and after a 9km descent they reach the foot of the first categorised climb of the day, the Roccaraso. As you can see in the graphic on the right they give the climb as being 9kms from Castel di Sangro, but really with the first 2kms being totally flat, the climb is 7kms at an average of 6.4%, with 4kms in the middle being closer to 7.8%, hitting a max of 12%. 

This is followed by a false flat of 10kms and a 42km descent, and bizarrely, in the flat section before the final climbs they have positioned two intermediate sprints just 6.4kms apart. 

With 45kms to go they start climbing again as they enter the Parco Nazionale del Gran Sasso e Monti della Laga, with first the climb of Calascio, a Cat 2 climb which averages 6.2% for 12.8kms of the main climb. There are 2kms of a flattish run in to it and another 5.6kms of false flat after the KOM before they arrive immediately at the base of the final climb to Gran Sasso, another Cat 1 climb that reaches a height of 2135m. 

The climb is in three parts really - there is the opening 10kms which average just 4%, but most parts are closer to 4.5%, with a little descent in the middle. Then there's a rolling section with little descents and climbs, but basically they gain almost no altitude for 10kms. And then there's the final hard section which starts with about 7kms to go, the first 3kms are relatively easy, around 4.5% average, but then it kicks up to closer to 8.5% average for the last 4kms of the climb. There is 1km with about 3kms to go that averages 9.8% and a small section that hits 13%, but the finishing straight is just 120m long at 8%.

Contenders and Favourites

The vibe from a lot of the riders and DS's in their pre-stage interviews before today's stage was that tomorrow's stage was going to be a hard one.. a lot harder than today's.. So as a consequence a lot of them saved energy today, it was almost like a rest day for some. They did race fast up the final climb, but to see so many finish altogether like that suggests that the pace wasn't too taxing. 

How do we see this one work out? The weather shouldn't be a problem, it's a slight side/tail wind for the day, with no rain forecast and temperatures around 22-23 degrees. The break could well be bigger than we got today, and I'm going to give Robert Gesink and Mikel Nieve another go, I'm hoping they give it another try and get up the road tomorrow. No fancy prices on them I'm afriad though, 25/1 on Gesink and 66/1 on Nieve. 

I also like the look of a few other longshots, but prices aren't great, it seems everyone is short for tomorrow, bookies must be expecting a massive break to go and for it to stick.. 

Mickael Cherel is one that could like this stage tomorrow, but then I realised that he has NEVER won a pro race in thirteen years in the World Tour.. Alessandro de Marchi is another that I like, he is good on a stage like this, but it's been three years since he won.. If BMC let a rider go up the road, he could be there. Ruben Plaza is another for this sort of stage, and the Israeli Cycling Academy man is over 14 mins down so will be let go.. If he can get in to a rhythm in the last 7kms he could just power his way to the finish.

But really, that's about it, there were guys you'd fancy like Jan Polanc but they either were in a break and didn't show much or haven't shown any ambitions so far. It's a hard stage to go on the attack, you need to be strong for the earlier part of the stage and be really strong for the final part..

There will be a proper battle on over the last 45kms, and that double final climb is going to be a killer. If there are some riders who are not quite 100%, they could really suffer tomorrow on that 8% final 5kms. And others will be looking to go for the jugular against those that they want to make time up against.. Simon Yates is 7/1 favourite again, and you can see why, an 8% finish like that will suit him down to the ground and he's absolutely flying at the moment, if he attacks again like he did on Etna, no one will catch him.

And Esteban Chaves is going very well too, again, they could play the 1-2 again and send him up the road on the first Cat 1 climb to Calascio, for Yates to bridge too later on. There have been mutterings of not being happy with his form from Tom Dumoulin, if he's really not feeling brilliant, they need to put him under pressure tomorrow and see how he copes. The 8% slopes might test him if he is not 100%, but if he is ok, he will sit in wheels and manage his effort, he'll just want to get through tomorrow I think. 

Miguel Angel Lopez has work to do, but has been going better now the road has started to go upwards. This steeper finish is much more up his street too, and if I were his DS I'd be telling him to sit on Yates's wheel and watch his every move, he's the most likely to be the one to make a race-winning move. He could then counter him for the stage win. Thibaut Pinot looks to be in great shape, chasing home Formolo today to take 3rd on the stage and pick up a few bonus seconds. This is going to be a big test of him tomorrow, he will have to be at his best to go with the lighter, smaller guys like Chaves, Yates, Pozzo and Lopez.  

Domenico Pozzovivo is looking good, but will always find a few too good for him, he's too short at 11/1 to even back e/w, there could be 3 or 4 finish ahead of him. Richard Carapaz was excellent today, but can he pull it off two days running? He'll be marked a lot closer, that's for sure. Fabio Aru could start to show himself soon, he seems to be coming in to a bit of form too, but he was too far back on that finish today for me to be a top 3 player here tomorrow.. 5th to 10th for him I think. 

Davide Formolo impressed me today, but Bora should have done a lot better with the numbers they had. Patrick Konrad was with him, they ended up 2nd and 8th.. maybe tomorrow they will work towards Formolo getting the chance to sprint for the win, the way he rode today at the end of the stage would suggest he'll be one of the best at the finish. Michael Woods might like this steeper finish, but the problem seems to be the 20kms before that, he will do better on a short punchy finish. 

And that's it.. I am annoyed with how quick De Marchi's price has tumbled tonight though, he was 80/1 when I started writing and is now just 28/1 with Bet365... That's just about acceptable, but I think we get a solo winner if a break does win, so I'm going to back the breakers win only, as there is a big chance of a GC battle I think. And if it does come down to the GC men fighting it out, I like Formolo at the prices, but I think given how strong he has looked we have to have a saver on Yates at 7/1. 

Recommendations: 

0.5pts e/w on Davide Formolo at 18/1

1pt win on Simon Yates at 7/1

0.3pts win on Mikel Nieve at 66/1

0.3pts win on Alessandro De Marchi at 28/1 

0.3pts win on Ruben Plaza at 50/1

0.3pts win on Robert Gesink at 25/1

Matchbets:

Gesink to beat Hermans - 2pts at 5/4

Formolo to beat Woods and Lopez to beat Chaves - 2pts at 5/4

Oomen to beat Bilbao - 2pts at 5/6

Henao to beat Kangert and Schachmann to beat Goncalves - 2pts at 1.6/1